Oppo mobile manufacturing entered execution.
- Ems division fy26 growth — answer hedged.
- Ems top line growth — answer hedged.
- Rac industry fy26 volumes — answer hedged.
What kind of growth are you envisaging for EMS sector for FY '26? Any color on that?
Well, as explained, we are adding a lot of new applications. And that's the reason why we guided that we are very confident that this division will be in above 10% range within next 2 years because we are adding industrials applications more now, and automobile is also adding up. It's already added, but now the business is growing, which are more margin-accretive businesses than the current businesses.
Anything on the top line growth for EMS in FY '26?
Top line, we can't tell right now. But yes, I think we are very optimistic of -- or at least 30% plus growth, 30% to 40% growth range for this division.
How do you see industry volumes playing out for FY '26 given erratic rains? And on inventory situation currently - in Q4 there was a lot of inventory pushed into the system. Also on the new BEE rating change starting Jan '26, would you expect prebuy a quarter before that?
Ankur, in last 25 years, I have seen many such good seasons and bad seasons. So I would request all of you that in case you want to recommend anybody putting in money in air conditioner sector, you should not focus on the quarterly basis because this is an industry, which is seasonal in nature. But let me give you numbers. 25 years back, 0.5 million air conditioners used to sell in the country, and we have already crossed 14 million mark. There are some reports which are referring to 14 million. There are some reports which are referring to 15 million also. What we expect that this industry should be in the range of 30 million to 35 million in the next 5 years' time, which is a good CAGR. So yes, currently, you're right, on the southern side and on the Western side also, there's a lot of rains which are going on. So there are many brands which are struggling to grow. And -- but as I explained that we are an aggregator of demand. For us, April has been very good for us. Even May is going pretty fine. On the inventory levels, it is varying from brands to brands. There are shortages in some brands till today also. And there is surplus inventory with some brands. So as a B2B company for us, what we see from the -- if I hear from the customers, there are some customers who are slowing down, but there are some customers who still continue to be very optimistic and they are growing on their demand. I believe whenever this kind of season comes, industry normally get into a very pessimistic mode and start planning with a very pessimistic approach. And plus coupled with the Bureau of Energy rating in the month of January, so we expect little offtake in the quarter 3, which generally is not the case in line to the inventory buildup so -- but that's the standard patterns of the industry. So there's nothing unique, which is going to happen. Whenever there is a positive season, you will see industry getting into optimism mode. And whenever there is a negative season, everybody gets into pessimistic mode. So it's a compounding of optimism and pessimism, I would say. But on the longer run, nothing changes for this sector. We are very optimistic for the complete sector. And plus, as Amber, since we have diversified our portfolio now, our finished goods contribution today in the whole scheme of consol balance sheet is just 40% -- 42%, which used to be 76% when we got listed. So for us, things are very different today because of other divisions doing well and even our CAC business and the non-RAC components doing well, which are not very seasonal in nature.
This pickup in Electronics growth in Q4 - is it on account of automobiles becoming larger or wearables and hearables getting much larger orders?
Aditya, we are gaining traction in almost every vertical basically. And I think we are very optimistic for this division. And normally, what happens is there are entry barriers of 2 to 3 years or maybe sometime in 4 years also depending on customers. And in the year 1 or 2, we get less share of business. But as we move older, we gain traction and we can gain more share of business also. So that's how the trajectory has been till now.
On JV losses - what has driven the increased losses and how do we see it over the next couple of years?
Well, these businesses take time for ramping up. This is a new business for us, both of them. And I think we are very confident that as we move ahead, we'll be able to take care of these losses. And the larger objective of getting into joint venture along with the Titagarh was particularly for gearing up for our new component sectors, which are the new categories, which we have added because these are very high entry barrier businesses. So if you want to supply products like doors and gangways or brakes or couplers, these are safety Level 2 and safety Level 4 products where the entry barriers are as good as 7 to 8 years. So our main objective of this JV was to get into that and which we have already received. And we are very happy that on signing itself, we were able to receive a substantial business from Titagarh India as well as abroad. Yes, outside JV is struggling at the moment, but we feel we should be able to come out of that very soon.
What will drive the 30%-40% growth in FY '26 for Electronics? And for Ascent Circuit's INR650 crore expansion, would that fetch INR600-650 crore kind of revenue?
No. On the EMS side, since we are adding some applications, that's bringing up the growth. And for the Ascent Circuit, we see some numbers adding up in the last month of this financial year, where the plant will start adding up. But the large number will come from next year in the Ascent Circuits numbers.
On the PCB manufacturing side, which you are going for Ascent, that will be the first phase to be operational by FY '26, right? It's INR300 crores?
No, no. Ascent Circuit is already operational. They have clocked a revenue of more than INR325 crores this year. Their expansion in Hosur, which was undertaken, that construction is moving well. We expect that construction to be over and the commercial production to start by quarter 4 of current year. In the month of February or March, we will start the production for that new unit, which is expansion, where we are putting our money.
Do you think that FY '26 for the RAC business will be considerably declining or flattish? Or do you think that non-AC contribution in durable vertical will be enough to kind of generate double-digit growth despite the weak summer?
Dhruv, if you see, we are an aggregator of the demand. So yes, there are many news this time that AC is flattish. But just to tell all of you, we have done pretty well in April. May is also going very, very fine for us. And we feel that, yes, double-digit growth is very much possible for Amber's RAC business. And plus, we have added a lot of Non-RAC components and CAC business, which is doing very well.
On working capital - is this sub-10-day NWC a new normal or will it normalize going forward?
Yes. Dhruv, you're right, we used to be in the range of 35, 40 days, which is now less than 10. So we feel that this is maintainable. But yes, on a quarterly basis, this may not be maintainable because of season and off-season basis. But at the year-end kind of a thing, we think that, yes, it should be in the range of 10 to 15 days on a consol level.
A listed peer reported 100% growth in Q4, attributing it to increased outsourcing propensity and e-commerce / white label brands gaining share. Are you also seeing these trends explaining the delta in growth numbers?
So see, the strategy of in-sourcing, outsourcing continues to shift. But yes, all the plants which were supposed to become, they have already been executed by the brands. And since last year, it was a very good season. So definitely, yes, outsourcing concept, the propensity is towards now outsourcing more, which was towards in-sourcing for last 2 to 3 years, that's very right. And on the brands which are like Croma, Flipkart and other kind of brands, yes, they are also gaining traction. So that does make the outsourcing business model lucrative right now as compared to what it used to be 2 to 3 years back.
Your RAC commentary was quite inspiring. Is it because you are less indexed in the South which is more impacted? Or is it because your customers are doing relatively better than the wider industry?
No Pranay, I think probably the customers which we are catering to, their demand is growing. So -- I mean, yes, South is down for everybody, definitely because of the rains and all, but North has already picked up. The Western part -- some of the Western parts and the central part of India has picked up. There are some rains going on. But yes, overall, the customers which we are catering are moving positive as of now.
On the ECMS component manufacturing scheme - apart from PCB, is there any other segment you would evaluate? And what is the FY '26 capex excluding ECMS and including ECMS?
Well, thank you, Sonali. I think on the ECMS, our capex, what we are planning without ECMS, our capex will be somewhere about INR500 crores, which will be for our Railway division and our RAC division, Consumer Durable division. In ECMS, we will be putting in an application of about INR3,000 crores, which is to be spent over a period of scheme in 5 years. And I think this year, the capex will be somewhere about -- close to about INR800 crores to INR900 crores, which is ongoing Ascent Circuit capex because last year, only the land came in and now the building and machinery are going to be added up, plus the new joint venture, Korea Circuits land and some part of the building will come in this year.
On Sidwal - the order book has grown to about 20 billion plus. What gives confidence of doubling the division revenue over 2 years - is it just the order book or visibility into new categories?
Sonali, yes, I mean, one is the slowdown, which was there for Vande Bharat and Metro that is picking up the pace. So that is the first part. Second is our expansion into various product categories like Couplers, Pantograph, Brakes, Gears and also Doors and Gangways. Just to inform you all, we have already executed 26 new trains with the gangways. So that product has started going up, and we have received more than about INR500 crores of orders for the doors as well. And we have just recently last week received our first order for the couplers as well. So all these addition of our bill of material in the rolling stock is gaining traction. And that's why we are confident of reaching to a double number of this division in the next 2 years.
On ECMS - is there any other segment you would like to evaluate apart from the PCB board?
No, we will be very focused in the PCB. So in PCB, there are 2 categories. Ascent Circuit is into multilayer and double layer categories. And on the Korea Circuits side, we will be filing application for the high-density interface and substrates category.
In the electronics business, are there any new segments commercialized within the EMS space or new large customers you can speak about?
Well, I'll not give a color on the customers because of the NDA signed. But yes, on the application side, I'll give you a brief. When we started in 2018, we had just started for consumer durable, particularly ranging in air conditioners and refrigerators. But today, we cater to hearable, wearable segment. We cater to smart meters segment. We cater to automobile sector, defense applications and telecom. These are the sectors which we are already catering to. What we are going to add in the next 2 years is industrials and aerospace and defense.
On the INR3,000 crore ECMS capex - is bulk of that on the bare PCB side and how is the capex split across different entities in the electronics business?
Well, it will be spread in 3 categories: PCB-A, PCB Ascent Circuit, which we are already doing and Korea Circuit, our new JV. So it will be in 3 categories. But the application which will go in the new scheme will be only for the PCBs because PCBAs are not allowed in that scheme. So large capex is going -- INR3,000 crore capex will come in that category, which is going to be spread over 5 years. But we should clearly note that in one scheme, the 48% is going to be returned by -- through -- over a period of 5 years by government. And above than that, the state government's incentives of close to about 35% are going to kick in. So net capex for us, out of that INR3,000 crores, which we will invest in after 5 years, the net capex, which will come in the balance sheet will be just 25% to 30% of the whole INR3,000 crores.
Can you give more light on the Electronics division - what are we currently doing and where are we moving? What TAM can we look at for Railways over a longer horizon?
On Railway division, earlier, we were just catering to INR25 lakh in one passenger car. So normally, Vande Bharat Express has got 16 passenger cars, and one passenger car is costing about INR6 crores to INR6.25 crores. Out of that, we were catering only air conditioner part. But now we can cater to INR1.5 crores of what goes into it, as we added into Pantries, plus Doors and Gangways, Couplers, Brakes and Gears. So our TAM has expanded by 5x, while being in the same segment for metro and railway. That is one part. And on the Electronics side, PCB -- coming on what we do in the Electronics side, we do 2 parts in the electronics side. First is we give PCB assemblies for various sectors, such as consumer durables, comprising of air conditioners, inverter PCB boards, refrigerator electronic boards, washing machine boards, microwave boards, water purifiers and also some small appliances. That is our consumer durable catering. Then we do smart watches, Bluetooth speakers as a hearable and wearable segment. We do smart meters. Then we do automobile telematics and other categories of products for 2-wheeler and 4-wheelers and large commercial vehicles also. And we do some optoelectronics for the defense applications also. And telecom also, we are doing 4G, 5G equipments. So this is our PCBA application side. And we are a backward integrated company with the PCB also in-house. We do single layer, multilayer, double layer and radio frequency PCB up to 48 layers currently. But what we are adding now apart from this capacity is the HDI and semiconductor substrates, which is required in mobile phones and laptops and ITs and servers, etcetera. So this is going to be added in the next 2 years.
What sort of revenue or market can we look at from the new PCB segment (HDI/substrates)?
Well, it's a very big TAM, just to explain about PCB itself. Last year, India almost consumed $115 billion of electronics, out of which $4 billion of PCBs, almost about INR32,000 crores of PCBs got consumed in India and only 9% of that got manufactured in India. And looking into these data points, Government of India has already supported the sector by antidumping duty up to 6 layers, which has gained a lot of momentum for bringing up capacities in the country. And now what we see in the next 5 years, the industry electronics consumption in India will go to almost about $300 billion to $400 billion. And as a thumb rule, 3.5% to 4% is the PCB consumption. So there is a TAM of about $10 billion of consumption, even if we assume that 50% will still be imported at that time, still, there is current level of INR3,000 crores worth of PCB getting manufactured, going to almost about $5 billion. So that's the opportunity size. And we expect to at least have 10% of this opportunity size moving forward.
On the INR3,000 crore ECMS capex - is there a breakup between Korea Circuit JV and Ascent Circuit, including the INR650 crore ongoing capex?
So currently, we have announced INR650 crores capex, which is ongoing. Maybe we add -- looking into the demand scenario, we may add moving forward after 2 to 3 years' time, another INR500 crores in this. And rest is the Korea Circuit JV. And just to inform you all, we should note one more point, which is I would like to highlight that we have been able to successfully sign offtake agreement with Korea Circuits, where first 2 years of the production capacity will be offtaken to Korea Circuits by Korea Circuits team to their existing customers from India. So as we start the process, we don't have any issues on the customer side.
On the guidance of outpacing RAC industry growth by 10% to 12% - given weak summer, high inventory and more brand capacity set up, what gives confidence that we'll gain market share?
See, if I see the results of all the listed players, I have seen documents around growth phase of 25% to 30%, whereas Amber has grown by more than 48%. So that's a testimony of our aggregation of the demand kind of scenario. We believe -- because we've added new customers last year, that is one part. Second is we've added some customers on the components of RAC as well. And we are growing in the CAC part also. So these all 3 factors are leading us to comment that we will outpace the industry by at least 10%.
CAC already did INR200 crores. What is the expectation for this business - how much can we expand from here?
It's growing pretty well. We started this division 2 years back, and it has crossed INR200 crores this year. We expect this division to grow at least by 20%, 25% to 30% range this year.
Any number for JV losses for FY '26? We had INR30 crores for FY '25 - could we see breakeven or substantial reduction and breakeven in FY '27?
I think it a little -- it should come down by another INR10 crores or so. So INR20 crores to INR25 crores should be the range moving forward.
On the proposed PLI component scheme with INR3,000 crore outlay - what is the expected return on capital on that investment?
Well, if you see out of INR3,000 crores, almost 60% to 65% will be funded back in the scheme by central and the state government together. So we'll be in the net capex side, we will be investing about 30% of that. So 30% to 35%. If I see on the net capex side, the ROCE level for this industry is more than 25 -- in the range of 25% to 30%.
For the INR3,000 crores investment, is it fair to assume an asset turn of maybe 1x, 1.5x?
Generally, like-to-like, these are asset-heavy businesses. So single layer and double layer, they are at asset turn of 1, 1.15 and HDIs are at asset turn of 0.85 to 0.9. But if you see on the net capex invested, the asset turns will be more than 2.
On the EMS division margin trajectory - will it be a gradual improvement or more back-ended given some softening of margins this quarter despite strong top line growth?
Till now, if you see in our INR2,200 crores of the Electronics division, almost 55% is still coming from the consumable sector. So these are the sectors with the low EBITDA margins. Hearable, wearable, consumer durables, these are low EBITDA margins. What we are adding is automobile, industrial, energy sector and the defense sector. That is what we are adding. And that is why we are very confident that the trajectory will go beyond 10%. And I would like to also highlight that this division of ours is at 26% ROCE currently and which is a very healthy level. I was expecting -- personally, I was expecting that we'll cross 7.5% to 8% in this division, but it has come down to 6.9% because more of consumer durable applications were sold. But as I hear from the team, moving forward in the next 4 quarters and next 8 quarters, they are adding a lot of customers from industrial side, and that is why we are confident of bringing up to 10% plus EBITDA margins of this division.
What capex are we planning for the Korea JV and what is the timeline for the plant to go online and revenue to start flowing to P&L?
So in Korea circuit JV, we will be putting in an application of close to about INR2,500 crores, which is to be spent on a period of 5 years. And time line is that as per government, government has given 90 days' time to file an application. After that, I am assuming that another 60 days or so for approvals, and that's when the approvals will be granted. So post September, the work will start. So I am hopeful that by next financial year, quarter 4, it should be up and running.
On Sidwal - how is the exports division shaping up and when should we expect something tangible coming into the P&L?
We have started participating in RFQs for the export tenders at the moment. We have received our first developmental order from New York. And we expect that after -- so the process is pretty long. You have to supply the products in the next 24 months. After that, they will watch and monitor the performance for next 18 months. After that, you are approved for supplies. So it is a process, I think, another 3 years' time from now on. But the process has started. Teams have been formed and we have started working. And also, I would like to highlight that through Indian rolling stock companies, who are participating in the foreign tenders, through them also, it will be a deemed export for us. That has also started.
On Railway division guidance of doubling in next 2 years - would it be more back-ended with more growth in FY '27 and '28, or FY '26 expected to be strong as well?
So FY '26 will be a slight growth over the period of last year because now the projects have started taking off. And just to tell you that the 200 Vande Bharat Express, which were to be rolled out 2 sets, both TMH and Titagarh they were supposed to be last year, which got delayed by an year. So that is happening this year, but the large numbers will start going from next year. So you will see a big traction next year onwards.
On the washing machine Resojet part - when do we see revenue accrual for us?
So we have already supplied 28,000 washing machines this year. So revenue has started getting accrued, but we are having some losses there. I think the team is already working. And maybe this year, we plan that the number should be at least at a breakeven point.
What is the capacity available in Ascent and what would be the growth driver for FY '26 for the overall Electronics division in terms of revenue, profitability and working capital?
Well, currently, Ascent is moving at almost 90% of capacity, and that's why we are putting up another 30,000 square meter plant. And Korea Circuits will be -- the first phase will be 10,000 square meter of HDI to begin with, and then we'll keep on adding as we move ahead.
On Korea Circuit economics - investing INR2,500 crores over 5 years, what could be the peak revenue potential and how does the scale-up happen?
Madhav, yes, it will be like INR2,500 crores over a period of 5 years. So like the first part of that will be about INR1,000 crores or so. Generally, the asset turns in this sector are 0.85 to 0.9 and that's where we are going to grow. But if you see in a horizon of 2 to 3 years' time, because we have an offtake agreement, we feel that it can add about INR1,500 crores revenue over a period of -- after we start the production over a period of next 2 years.
When does the INR1,000 crore Phase 1 capex commission?
So this will commission next financial year, quarter 4 because we expect the approvals to come by September, and that's where the construction and everything will start. So it takes about 14 to 15 months for the plant to get commissioned.
So FY '28 is when we start seeing revenue from Korea JV? And margins for this Korea JV are about 18% to 20% EBITDA?
That's right. FY '28, you will see the PCB itself giving a revenue generation of more than INR2,500 crores at 18% to 20% of EBITDA.
On the ECMS incentive - is there any revenue threshold needed to get the subsidy? What are the milestones the government wants before subsidy comes? And how will the capex be funded in the time gap?
Pulkit, on the time line basically and the turnover, so it's a hybrid scheme for capex and TLI, turnover-linked incentive, scheme. So out of 48%, 25% will be reimbursed after the plant is commissioned and 23% will come in next 5 years after achieving the turnover-linked incentive and employee-linked incentives also. So there is employment generation also which we need to do. So once we meet those criteria, every year, we'll get -- we'll be -- it will be spread in -- 23% will be spread in 5 years. So that is how the time line on the subsidies are coming. Coming to the funding part, as an Electronics division, we are already in touch for raising the funds for this kind of -- meeting the objective because we are going to get back. So we are already in touch with various institutions for that.
Can you give any order book number for the Electronics division by end of FY '25 and how it has grown Y-o-Y? And are we seeing any export opportunities in Electronics given the tariff environment?
Yes. Because of this tariff being spoken so much, there are many customers who started talking to us for exports. And we are talking, but let us see. I mean, I think we are not giving really great mileage to that. Maybe 2 years down the line, yes, we may see some big exports coming. Largely, we are focusing on domestic industry at the moment. If I talk about the order book, so generally, the contracts are long term in nature. So we've already done INR2,193 crores. If I speak about 2 years order book, we are already sitting at close to about INR5,000 crores of order book kind of a thing at the moment from various customers, with various applications.