Throughline · holding view Deep analysis Q4 FY25
APOLLOHOSP Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd · Pharma Q4 FY25 · concall
Pattern: fy26 gmv growth consol

Bangladesh and quick-commerce overhangs disappeared by Q3FY26.

1 deflection · 3 weak · 30 clean pushback across 4 of 34 Q&A turns

Focused evidence 4 of 34

Tushar Manudhane · Motilal Oswalweak

On GMV - what kind of growth should we expect for FY26 with the new business initiatives? And combined with hospital margin maintenance, what kind of EBITDA growth at consol level?

On the digital side alone, we plan a GMV increase of 25% to 30% on an annual basis. Q4 closed at INR 795 crore GMV. Pharmacy is on course; we expect breakeven around INR 1,000 crore. Krishnan added that they don't guide on consolidated EBITDA growth, but EBITDA will expand because of HealthCo helping; on Healthcare Services they aim to maintain numbers including new hospitals for the coming year.

A. Puranwala · ICICI Securitiesweak

On the annual CAGR guidance of 24% to take you to ~INR 25,000 crore by FY27 - this year Pharmacy grew 16-17% plus Keimed. How will you achieve 24% growth for the combined business?

We still believe we can hit INR 25,000 crore in FY27 but visibility currently is closer to INR 24,000 crore for FY27, with run-rate hitting INR 25,000 crore in Q3-Q4 FY27. Keimed grew nearly 20%. Pharmacy front-end will grow upwards of 20% in FY26 (general elections + back-loaded store openings hurt FY25). Digital will grow 25-30%. All combined gets us close to INR 24,000 crore for FY27 with INR 25,000 crore run-rate by Q3-Q4 FY27.

Dheeresh Pathak · WhiteOak Capitalweak

ESOP charges show only under 24/7 and online pharmacy - are senior employees in other verticals not getting ESOPs?

We do have a plan for ESOPs for senior employees and doctors. The Board has cleared a plan; we will work on the implementation and impact and share in the next quarter.

Dheeresh Pathak · WhiteOak Capitaldeflection

On HealthCo P&L allocation - the pre-24/7 EBITDA of INR 140 crore includes take-rate on INR 3,000 crore GMV. After taking that out there isn't much left for online pharmacy distribution EBITDA. How are you allocating costs between offline and online pharmacy distribution?

It's a common platform fulfilling pharmacy, diagnostics, consultations, insurance and subscription packages, so it is extremely difficult to allocate expenses across 5-6 verticals. The way we present it: full year revenue of INR 1,080 crore with EBITDA margin of 13.1% versus 11.4% in FY24 - approximately 200 bps upward movement. We expect this 13.1% to move to 17%+ this year via insurance and other margin levers. We can take the allocation discussion offline.

Other Q&A (30)
Damayanti Kerai · HSBC

On 24/7 - some competitors have tied up with quick commerce platforms for 10-15 minute medicine delivery. How do you see competition for the E-pharmacy business? And on a stand-alone basis, when do you see cash breakeven for 24/7 in light of the higher ESOP charges in Q4?

We have no plans to tie up with quick commerce - we already have an alliance with Amazon and a year back we launched our own 19-minute proposition which now contributes ~30% of GMV in our top 6 cities. We will not relegate ourselves to a back-office function for these players. On breakeven, we stick to the path of cash breakeven between Q3 and Q4 FY26 - Q3-Q4 FY25 was a bit flat due to one-time expenses but unit economics is steadily improving. Sanjiv added that the accelerated ESOP cost in Q4 FY25 was a one-off; FY26 ESOP cost will be ~INR 100 crore (in line with prior year) and will drop to roughly one-third in FY27.

Damayanti Kerai · HSBC

Aren't you worried that competitors might take a larger volume chunk because of 10-minute delivery?

The quick commerce trend essentially impacts only the OTC/FMCG side, where regulatory requirements give Apollo Pharmacy and 24/7 an advantage. We saw a small dip but are back on course. Bangalore numbers (where these players are experimenting) are holding up - we continue to grow there. We are watching the space carefully but the equations do not justify a tie-up at this point.

Damayanti Kerai · HSBC

On the Healthcare business margins close to 24% - how should we look at the trajectory given new units coming up in '26 and beyond? Can you maintain ~24% margins despite new beds?

Existing units will continue to generate strong cash flows and stronger EBITDA margins. We see ~140 bps as the expected margin offset - 80 bps from cost reduction initiatives and 60 bps from improved revenues via payer mix, complexity and ARPOB. These will minimize the impact of new hospitals. So yes, this year we expect to maintain margins around 24%.

Neha Manpuria · Bank of America

On the Digital business - update on new businesses (insurance launched in March)? And pre-OpEx margins seem to have moderated - when do we start seeing them improve to achieve cash breakeven in H2?

Insurance business officially started 1st April as a full-fledged corporate agent; numbers have already doubled vs last quarter. We are running at INR 6-7 crore topline this quarter and targeting an annualized INR 75 crore, exiting at INR 8-10 crore monthly. Currently 4 of 12 signed insurance partners are operational (Niva Bupa, ICICI Lombard, Star Health, HDFC Ergo); 4 more come in this quarter. SBI Cards launch this month is also driving good interest. On margins, Q4 unit economics improved (from ~INR -60 to INR -27 on digital), discount structures stabilized at 13-14% and cost of delivery is coming down - upward trajectory will be visible in Q1.

Neha Manpuria · Bank of America

On hospital margins - is it fair to assume capacity additions come through only later in the year, given losses will be visible in Q4? So no hospitals start in H1?

Even in H1, some expansions like Secunderabad Wellness (existing hospital) will not see significant losses. Pune, a new hospital, is where we could see some small losses. Q2 - definitely no significant losses; we would have added another 150-200 beds. By Q4 yes, there will be significant bed addition. Both Jubilee Hills and Secunderabad come through in this year itself.

Tushar Manudhane · Motilal Oswal

Just a clarification - most of the new operating beds are expected to come from Q4 FY26 and that's where the 140 bps impact is. Is my understanding correct?

Correct. By Q3 you will see us operationalizing Pune, Kolkata, the Defense Colony and the first Sarjapur acquisition - all four should get operationalized by Q3 as our internal target.

Shyam Srinivasan · Goldman Sachs

On hospital growth - can you guide for FY26? Also Q4 hospital growth slowed to 10% - is the 2% Bangladesh impact the main reason?

Bangladesh impact was pronounced in Q3 and very pronounced in Q4 - for the full year Bangladesh impacted revenues by INR 100 crore (1.5% of full year). Had Bangladesh been with us, EBITDA could have been ~50 bps higher. Going forward, we look at low- to mid-teen organic growth on Healthcare Services. New beds will start contributing significantly from FY27, where we hope to add over INR 1,000-plus crore of revenues from new hospitals.

Shyam Srinivasan · Goldman Sachs

There is no mitigation for Bangladesh - we should assume it's not coming back in FY26?

We have mitigated it with higher CONGO-T contributions. Madhu added that we have focused on quality of revenue with higher CONGO specialty contribution and have pivoted to other international markets which have grown substantially YoY. Suneeta added that local market share is improving and surrounding markets are flowing patients into our metro quaternary care hospitals - this trend will continue into next year.

Shyam Srinivasan · Goldman Sachs

On the 80 bps cost and 60 bps revenue improvement - what specifically are we cutting on costs and what are the ARPOB improvements?

We invested substantially in technology and are now seeing improvements in workforce productivity. We are being very careful with material costs and improving sustainability as we take out high complexity cases. While case complexity has increased we have still expanded margins. The focus is on both material cost and workforce productivity.

A. Puranwala · ICICI Securities

On Keimed - we saw 22-23% revenue growth this year but margins dipped YoY. What is driving growth and what caused the margin slip?

Keimed margin dipped slightly due to one-time expenses related to acquiring various subsidiaries and higher legal fees, plus a mix change during the year. Going into FY26, both the absence of these one-time costs and a focus on different product categories will give better EBITDA margins - we are going back to the better EBITDA profile.

Ashish Kumar · Ampersand Capital Investment Advisors

On Bangladesh - is the worst over and on the FY25 base will impact be limited next year?

You will see one more quarter of impact in Q1 FY26 because Q1 last year had no impact. After that the Bangladesh effect should go away.

Dheeresh Pathak · WhiteOak Capital

The ESOPs given - are they shares of the listed entity or HealthCo (which is now merged with Keimed)?

HealthCo.

Harith Mohammed · Avendus Spark

Timeline for completing the Keimed merger?

15 months.

Harith Mohammed · Avendus Spark

On Apollo HealthCo plus Keimed FY27 guidance - margins of 7-8% (assumed exit rate). From current 3.2%, that's a significant expansion - what are the drivers?

Current 3.2% includes ESOP cost and 24/7 operating losses. ESOP cost will taper to one-third in FY27, and digital P&L will breakeven. Stripping these from today's number would already give 6.4%. Plus offline pharma can expand margins by ~100 bps from 7.4%, and Keimed has 40-50 bps upside from one-off expense normalization. Together these push 3.2% blended to 7%+. Confirmed: breakeven in online pharmacy distribution and 24/7 by end FY26 is excluding ESOP costs.

Harith Mohammed · Avendus Spark

On 24/7 GMV - around INR 800 crore for the quarter - within online pharmacy how much is prescription versus OTC/FMCG (which is more vulnerable to quick commerce)?

Ratio is roughly 80-20. Rx medicines and OTC contribute around 75-80%; health essentials and FMCG (moms, babies) contribute another 20%. We saw a blip in Q2-Q3 but we are back to normal numbers; new categories like nutritional supplements are opening up. We should be able to hold our numbers despite quick commerce.

Nitin Agarwal · DAM Capital

On 24/7 - you talked about 17-18% EBITDA margins. How do operating expenses (~INR 480 crore this year) play out - do they come off in absolute terms?

There is room for 15-20% reduction. FY26 expenses should be around INR 400-425 crore, less than INR 480 crore this year. Beyond a certain point expenses won't fall further; insurance will help margin profile. With expenses around INR 425 crore we should be able to hit breakeven in Q3-Q4.

Nitin Agarwal · DAM Capital

And operating expenses - is it a number that stays more or less with inflation increases going forward?

Yes.

Nitin Agarwal · DAM Capital

On GMV-to-revenue conversion ratio - what should we expect with the new services?

Currently roughly 37%. We should be able to hit closer to 45% to 47%. That is the GMV-to-revenue conversion target. Margins inching closer to 20% in FY27 with operating expenses staying around INR 420-430 crore - this is how the 24/7 P&L should shape up.

Nitin Agarwal · DAM Capital

On the Diagnostic business - YoY slowdown vs sharp improvement in Specialty Clinics. Can you explain both? And what is the strategic plan for AHLL?

In diagnostics we had to reset our franchisee model with changes to pricing and commission structure - hence the slowdown - but the new model is more sustainable and profitable. Over the last 2 years we improved diagnostics EBITDA by 4.5%. Starting this quarter you will see high-teens growth in diagnostics. On Clinics, we are doubling down via ProHealth and specialty checks, working closely with hospitals - good ProHealth volume growth continues. On AHLL strategy we are doubling down on diagnostics and primary care clinics. Suneeta added that this is probably the only primary care clinic model in India with GPs and specialists, expecting significant funnel into AHEL.

Nitin Agarwal · DAM Capital

On Diagnostics margins - peers are in mid-20s EBITDA. Where do we end up over the next 3 years?

We are targeting 20% EBITDA margin, about a couple of years away. This year diagnostic margins will grow 2-3%. Compared to peers who have full volume, our focus this year is volume growth via lab expansion - operating breakeven for every new lab is 18-24 months. Target of 20% is in mind.

Prashant Kshirsagar · Unived Corporate

Timeline for the Gurgaon project? And progress on the Worli project announced earlier?

Gurgaon project should be commissioned more towards end of Q4, around March; Hyderabad hospital is on a similar time frame. For Worli we are getting all approvals and hope to start digging ground after the rains.

Prashant Kshirsagar · Unived Corporate

On Indraprastha Medical - you mentioned capex earlier - is it complete or in progress?

It's in progress and will be made by Indraprastha Medical. Parking, neuro center and room expansion - we have not yet started but have all the drawings and are in the approvals process. We have got approvals for capital expense and FSI; submitting drawings now. Timeline ~2 years from May '25.

Sriram · Individual Investor

On the market structure of pharma industry - both retail and distribution are fragmented. Long-term consolidation outlook for India?

Online today contributes ~15% of our Pharmacy business; the wider industry remains fragmented with only 2-3 major players (Tata 1mg, PharmEasy) all in consolidation mode. We target taking online to ~30% of our overall Pharmacy. On physical Apollo Pharmacy has 6,600+ outlets; we open ~1 store a day with 375-500 more in the plan. We evaluate offers but see no major synergies. Rx is growing 23-24%; the slowdown was on FMCG and health essentials. Keimed scope adds supply chain synergies. Suneeta added FMCG slowdown is industry-wide and reflected in AHLL too.

Sriram · Individual Investor

Total addressable market for offline channel - against ~9 lakh pharmacies in India, how many stores can you have over 5-10 years?

We add about 600 stores every year and will continue. Today our share against ~9 lakh retailers is small - we are at about 8% of the organized market and aim for 20% in the next 5-6 years through network addition and entering new geographies. Distribution business will remain separate from retail because distribution is geographically organized in India.

Rhythm Sharma · Deloitte

On Apollo Cradle (Mother and Child segment) - current revenue mix between gynecology, pediatrics or other? Growth rate? And expansion pipeline - greenfield or brownfield?

Current mix is primarily OBG and women's gynecological surgeries; pediatrics mix is quite low. We just inaugurated our flagship Cradle Royale in Electronic City Bangalore with PICU setup. Pediatric mix expected to grow ~10% in the coming year. We have 12 Cradles pan-India - present in Bangalore, Delhi, Hyderabad, Chennai. Focus is on driving higher utilization in these cities for OBG and gynecology and other hysterectomies.

Rhythm Sharma · Deloitte

On doctor payout structure within Cradle - industry has 30-50%. How does Apollo Cradle structure work?

We have a mix of full-time doctors and consultants. Our payout structures are around 20-30% at a weighted level average. These differ by city and by model (full-time, visiting consultant, FFS). We just received the Times ranking award for being the best Cradle for the third year in a row - Cradle continues to be the most loved brand in Mother and Child segment.

Abhishek Agarwal · Individual Investor

On Secunderabad brownfield expansion - 80-bed addition shown at INR 545 crore project cost is INR 7 crore per bed - way higher than expected?

It's INR 54 crore - there is an error in the slide deck (Slide 24/54). We will correct this.

Madhav Marda · FIL

On 24/7 - the 17-18% margin you mentioned, is that for FY26 itself or by FY27 (this year was 13.1%)?

This increase should happen in this year (FY26).

Madhav Marda · FIL

Sales-to-GMV at 45% - that's also this year itself? It's a pretty accelerated profitability jump - is it being driven by insurance scaling up or other initiatives?

Yes, also this year. Drivers: (1) insurance which is high margin; (2) app monetization with pharma companies showcasing FMCG and OTC brands via digital inventory; (3) discount reduction via partnerships with banks on payment-mode side. Plus pharmacy, diagnostic and consultation margins evolving better in FY26 vs FY25 on scale. Madhivanan added insurance topline GMV is not significant yet - by Q4 we should be in good position; digital asset monetization (along quick commerce/Amazon lines) and bank partnerships will help margin.

Vivek Agrawal · CITI Group

On Northern region - this is a region where Bangladesh impact should be minimal but Q4 growth is 9% and full year ~11.6%. What explains the subdued growth?

North Q4 is traditionally subdued because of winter months. Krishnan added that Lucknow and similar regions see Q4 as a cyclical low; there was also the Kumbh effect this time. Otherwise we are back on track in Q1.

Prepared remarks (4 blocks)
I am happy to share at the outset that in FY '25, we have achieved two significant milestones. We crossed INR <strong>20,000 crore</strong> in consolidated revenue and came in at INR 21,794 crore. Alongside, Healthcare Services revenue crossed a milestone of INR 10,000 crore and came in at INR 11,147 crore. We believe these milestones reflect the scale and depth of our operations and give us the impetus to move ahead. Our performance in Q4 FY '25 reflects continued strength in execution, underpinned by resilient operating metrics and sustained growth across specialties and geographies. This has helped us to conclude FY '25 on a very strong note with healthy momentum and double-digit growth across all 3 verticals of Healthcare Services, Apollo HealthCo and AHLL. Our Healthcare Services business continued to benefit from strategic investments in high-end specialties and a sharper focus on optimizing both the payer and case mix, all of which contributed to steady improvement in ARPOB and margins. Our investments in clinical programs, medical talent and digital transformation have further strengthened Apollo's position as a leader in integrated healthcare delivery. Apollo HealthCo has now delivered a third successive quarter of profitability after breaking even in quarter 2 earlier in FY '25. AHLL has sustained its growth trajectory, supported by ongoing expansion in diagnostics and primary care formats. This performance positions us well for sustainable growth and enhanced profitability as we step into FY '26. Key Q4 highlights: Consolidated revenue grew by 13% year-on-year to INR 5,592 crore. Within this, the Healthcare Services business delivered 10% year-on-year revenue growth to INR 2,822 crore in quarter 4. This is after a 2% impact on account of patient flows from Bangladesh. Revenue from cash and Insurance segments saw a year-on-year increase of 11%. Collectively, these segments accounted for 83% of our inpatient hospital revenue. Inpatient volumes grew by 4% year-on-year. Our focus specialties, cardiac, oncology, neurosciences, gastro sciences and orthopedics continued to expand at a healthy pace, recording a volume growth of 8%. Group-wise occupancy stood at 67% in quarter 4. Occupancy in metro cities was at 70%.
ARPOB grew 7% year-on-year, touching INR 63,569. Apollo HealthCo reported revenues of INR 2,376 crore, growing 17% year-on-year in quarter 4 on the back of omnichannel pharmacy growth and double-digit growth in GMV. Revenues from Apollo Health and Lifestyle increased by 11% on a year-on-year basis to INR 394 crore during the quarter. As we look ahead, we are on track to operationalize our previously announced facilities in Gurgaon, Pune, Kolkata and Hyderabad later this fiscal year. In addition, we are happy to announce a significant expansion in the Sarjapur micro market in Bangalore with an addition of 700 beds in 2 stages. Stage 1, the acquisition of an existing 200-bed hospital, a leased facility where we can commence services within 2 months. Stage 2, establishing a 500-bed greenfield hospital in very close proximity for which the land has already been purchased. Within this, we will operate a 700-bed integrated facility and will take our bed strength in Bangalore to 1,500 beds, along with our strong network of clinics, Spectra and Cradle facilities. We are also pleased to announce capacity expansion of 160 beds in our existing Jubilee Hills and Secunderabad facilities in Hyderabad, which will be operationalized this year, along with our planned expansion in Gachibowli, which will take our overall bed strength to 1,500 beds in Hyderabad. With this, we are committed to spending over INR 8,000 crore for the additional 4,300 capacity beds over the next 3 to 4 years. We have already spent INR 1,000 crore for land acquisition and project development. Balance project cost to be incurred over the next 3 to 4 years is around INR 6,000 crore. We have significant cash and cash equivalents on hand and generate healthy free cash flows in excess of INR 1,000 crore per year after accounting for routine items. We believe we can fund this portfolio expansion, primarily through existing funds and internal accruals. With strong fundamentals across the business, plan is in place to mitigate the headwinds caused by disruptions in inpatient flows from Bangladesh and several facilities set to be commissioned in a phased manner. We are confident of sustaining our growth trajectory in FY '26.
Consolidated revenue grew by 13% year-on-year to INR 5,592 crore. Within this, the Healthcare Services business delivered 10% year-on-year revenue growth to INR 2,822 crore in quarter 4. This is after a 2% impact on account of patient flows from Bangladesh. Revenue from cash and Insurance segments saw a year-on-year increase of 11%. Collectively, these segments accounted for 83% of our inpatient hospital revenue. Inpatient volumes grew by 4% year-on-year. Group-wise occupancy stood at 67% in quarter 4. Occupancy in metro cities was at 70%. ARPOB grew 7% year-on-year, touching INR 63,569. Apollo HealthCo reported revenues of INR 2,376 crore, growing 17% year-on-year in quarter 4. Revenues from Apollo Health and Lifestyle increased by 11% on a year-on-year basis to INR 394 crore during the quarter. Consolidated EBITDA was at INR 770 crore, registering an increase of 20% year-on-year. Within this, the Healthcare Services EBITDA was at INR 686 crore, a growth of 16% year-on-year. Healthcare Services margins remained robust at 24.3%. Pharmacy Distribution business within Apollo HealthCo recorded an EBITDA of INR 162 crore, a growth of 21%. In the Digital segment, cash loss were at INR 80 crore compared to the INR 111 crore in Q4 FY '24. In addition, there was an accelerated ESOP charge of INR 45 crore in this quarter.
Therefore, Apollo HealthCo reported an EBITDA of INR <strong>36 crore</strong> in Q4 FY '25, up 3x from INR 12 crore in Q4 FY '24. AHLL delivered an EBITDA growth of INR 47 crore, representing a 32% year-on-year growth with margins improving 12% from 10% in quarter 4 last year. Consolidated PAT was at INR 390 crore, growing 54% year-on-year. Within Healthcare Services, we delivered a ROCE of 27.5% with balanced ROCEs across all geographies, metro, Tier 1 and Tier 2. Private label and generics revenue were at 15.6% of total pharmacy revenues. Our digital platform 24/7 added 2 million users. The platform GMV was at INR 795 crore, representing a growth of 11% over the same period last year. FY '25 consolidated revenue was at INR 21,794 crore, a year-on-year growth of 14%. Healthcare Services revenue was at INR 11,147 crore, a growth of 13%. Apollo HealthCo reported revenue of INR 9,093 crore, a growth of 16%. AHLL revenue grew by 14% to INR 1,554 crore. Full year consolidated EBITDA grew by 26% year-on-year to INR 3,022 crore. Healthcare Services EBITDA grew by 15% to INR 2,701 crore. This represents a margin of 24.2%. Apollo HealthCo reported EBITDA of INR 168 crore after considering noncash impact of INR 108 crore for the year. AHLL EBITDA grew 32% to INR 154 crore. Consolidated PAT was at INR 1,446 crore, a growth of 61% year-on-year. Healthcare Services PAT was INR 1,426 crore, an increase of 25%.
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