Refused to commit on foreign investor stake increase.
- Stressed airline account recovery — answer hedged.
- M financing capacity appetite — answer hedged.
- Tariff impact book — answer hedged.
The Corporate pipeline question has been already answered. There was one stress airline account for which the recovery efforts were underway, if you could give any update on that.
There is no further update on that. Out of the full book, full outstanding, one-third we got it from the guarantee coverage we had. So, the book is two-third. There are two things going on as on today. One is the normal NCLT process. Another with regard to a high-value collateral, which is available, where the process is on. The third is some kind of an international arbitration which is going on. There is tremendous kind of value in all those processes. As far as expectation goes we would recover the full amount out of this account. Some of the processes are outside the Indian jurisdiction, collateral sale is depending upon the price point. There is no further update, immediate update on this.
About the proposed move for the M&A financing - since you have a strong underwriting capacity, any specific skillsets that you have to bridge? And what kind of, given the net worth as of September, by the 10% norm how much is your appetite?
Our appetite would link to the normal Credit growth guidance actually. M&A gives us an opportunity because we operate internationally and internationally this is an established product. So, we understand the product. In terms of underwriting, we have a large domestic book. So, there are underwriting skills already there. It is an opportunity for a bank like us, in case the guidelines do come, to play a significant role. How much it would add to the book, I cannot give an estimate now. But we think it is going to be positive over and above the guidance they are giving on the advance growth.
On the tariff and how its impact - if it has had any impact or any comments on that? Are you still seeing it play out or do you think the effects have played out largely for the bank?
Look, there is an impact. A couple of sectors like the textile and a couple of sectors we have seen the impact. We are engaged with all the borrowers as far as we are concerned. As on today, there is no stress per se. But they do require some support and help going forward. So, we are waiting for the government policy in this regard. And if there is a requirement, then we will definitely support them. There is impact but not getting the account into stress as of today. But we are continuously engaged with this sector to figure out what kind of support they require.
We saw 2 private banks where foreign investors gathered their stake. Media reports have been doing round about centre increasing the cap limit for PSUs as well. What is your commentary on that? What is your general stance on foreign investors getting to increase their stake in PSUs?
See, like you have read it in the media, I have also read it in the media. So, no additional information with regard to any such policy. And the policy makers would take the policy call on that. So, I have no comment on that. Anything happening in the Indian market, they are all welcome stake. India is getting into a mature market. So, when we are getting into a mature market, I think the churn that is happening within the system is always positive to take India into a mature country.
There are reports that the government is considering the second round of merger and you are the second largest bank, your name is also there. Have you heard anything from the DFS in this regard? Have you received any communication?
Like you say that it's doing media round, so we also hear from the media only. Absolutely. No, it's a policy call. As a participant, we have no comments on the policy because the policymaker, stakeholder, will make the decision. As a participant, we won't comment on any policy measures. But as you said, the merger of Vijaya and Dena Bank has been very successful in terms of the consolidation that happened in the system. We were the first example and then multiple banks happened. In terms of creating scale and size, it is always a welcome for a country like us. We need large banks. But policy calls, policy decisions will be taken by the policymaker.
Adjusting for IT refund and recovery, you indicated core NIMs to be 2.81% last time. Would it be fair to assume that core NIMs this quarter would have been closer to 2.78% compared to reported NIMs? Is it like NIMs have declined by 3-4 basis points on quarter-on-quarter basis on core basis? How confident are we in terms of getting more than 2.9 or closer to 3 by exit quarter of FY26?
I mean, how we computed core NIM, the 2.96% is the global NIM. Exact calculation I will give it to you, but the NIM has improved. Even if excluding the IT refund on both side on the last quarter and this quarter, NIM has improved. Core NIM is going to be stable. It is stable and it has really helped us in terms of improving the core NIM. Q3 would be range bound in terms of margin, because again, the repricing full effect has come in the current scenario, but the full impact for the quarter has not come. On the asset side, there are going to be a lower income in terms of the full quarter impact. The deposit at 4.91% cost - I'm one of the lowest. So, net to net, it would be range bound. Full year basis, Q4, we are expecting a rise in the NIM. The guidance we are giving 2.85 to 3 is a global NIM.
MCLR calculation also has return on equity as a parameter. Last few years our return on equity was very good. When will we review that? Is there a plan to mark that down over the course of the year?
That would depend because there is certain policy on how do you, when you can review at what frequency, on what condition. So they are all for the policy therein. So only thing which variable as of today is the cost of deposit. So we'll also do, we'll look at the market, what is happening in the market in terms of the level, and then we possibly can take a call. But as of today, I don't think we need to take a review. But in case there is a requirement as per the policy, we'll take a review at a later date, not now.
Last year same quarter the recovery you are talking about (NCLT account) - was that Reliance? And on the floating provision of ₹400 crores this quarter (₹600 crores already there), can we expect this sort of floating provision every quarter to comply with the ECL draft? How much will you increase it for complying?
No, normally case specific we don't talk but that's not the case. It was a different NCLT. See, as far as ECL is concerned, yes, that is back of the mind why we created this provision this time. But we cannot say each quarter unless and until the cushion is available we can make it. Our thinking is in that direction to boost up the floating provision buffer therein. Run up to the implementation date, that is 1st April, 2027, we'll be working on those things but we cannot give a guidance of each quarter. We are mindful that we need to increase this before going forward. It is slightly a pre-year to give a year but then we are mindful of increasing on the floating provision.
You had introduced a lot of schemes and attractive offers during the festive season. In terms of on-branch, on-ground or digital activity, you have posted strong Retail credit growth in Q2. But in H2, what is your guidance in terms of credit growth, because of festive demand and flush liquidity? Have you seen a lot of footfall this quarter?
Look, overall, the guidance on the Advances remains the same, 11%-13% growth. Retail we have been almost at 18%-20% for last many quarters, maybe around 16 quarters now. That is the strength of the bank in terms of creating Retail demand. Particularly post-GST we have seen very strong Retail demand, particularly products like Auto loan and couple of other schemes. So, going forward also, full year basis I am targeting around 18%-20% growth in the Retail book, which consisting of Housing, Auto, Education and other schemes on the Retail.
There has been some pressure on the margins because of yields which have not really caught up with cost of funds. What is the outlook on the NIM? How are you seeing margins panning out from here on?
I said the new story for the bank for this quarter is one of the positive. It has increased actually rather the rate trajectory. The normal expectation was that there will be a margin cut but because of the smart management on the liability piece, we could improve that. The lowest point on the asset and liability, I think at the current rate scenario these are all done. The repricing of asset-liability did happen during the quarter. The impact on the asset side particularly has not seen the full quarter impact this quarter, maybe in the next quarter. What we feel for Q3, the NIM would be a range bound kind of a number. It will pick up in Q4. On a full year basis, we are still expecting the full year NIM would be somewhere between 2.85%-3%.
In terms of Other Income, what's the outlook? I know there were some one-offs last year which was not there this quarter but Treasury and Other Income is down pretty sharply year-on-year.
Other Income coming out of past 3-4 quarters, one can be the recovery on the TWO accounts, another can be the Treasury Income. We do not see any significant recovery coming out of TWO in the coming quarter. The normalized TWO recovery is roughly around ₹750 crore per quarter. I am not expecting any one-off at least in March'2026. Treasury again would be dependent on the market factors. Our guidance would be that Treasury income can be in the range of ₹1,000-₹1,200 crore per quarter going forward. If anything happens in terms of a lowering of 10-year G-sec or an OMO, then possibly we can upsize that. But I would hold the guidance at the same level like we had in September.
RAM proportion has increased to 62%. Do you see this trend continuing? Do you think RAM proportion will increase further by the end of the year or next year?
The average RAM growth that takes care of the Retail, Agri and MSME is almost 16.5%-17%. The Corporate loan guidance, we are giving almost a 10%-11%. So, there is a gap over there. So, obviously, the RAM percentage would improve going forward. We are targeting to get into a level of almost 65% but then whether that would happen by March'26 or sometime later, that would depend on the market.
Because of the muted corporate growth which is for everyone, not only for you, how do you plan to achieve 10%-12%? It looks a little ambitious. Where will it come from?
Look, we are getting into a busy season, that is Q3 and Q4. Normally if you go by the seasonal trend of last year also, our growth was good in Q3 and Q4. The growth was muted in Q1 and Q2. The Q3 and Q4 will be much better. With the measures taken, the demand would come back into the market. If you look at the momentum, the YoY is 3% whereas the quarter-on-quarter is almost 8%. So, the momentum towards a higher corporate book is increasing. So, we can grow at 10%-11%.
What would be the pipeline of Corporate loans right now? Which sectors is it coming from? What component is there of private CapEx versus working capital?
The Corporate loan growth is in the context of the margin objective you have. In the Core Corporate, the growth is quite strong coming out of private CapEx or the demand for increasing working capital on existing accounts. The portfolio where we slightly get judicious is in fine price book. There, actually the competition is very, very huge. In terms of pipeline, we have almost ₹40,000 crore of sanctions which are yet to be disbursed. We have another ₹25,000 crores odd of proposals which are under process, not received. The pipeline is very strong for the bank to get into a growth of almost 10%-11%.
You are maintaining the credit cost guidance at 0.75% and you said there would be some probable headwinds because of geopolitical issues. Can you elaborate? What are the headwinds? Which segment of the book? Is it playing out into the SMA numbers?
In terms of SMA book, the book is much better now. The book has no concern as of today. But like last quarter we had one off, it was a restructured account in an international book putting ₹500 crore pressure both on the NPA amount and also on the restructure because restructure per Indian guidelines has to be treated as NPA for 1 year. So, in that way, we have a large international book, we have a large domestic book. A small amount of ₹500 crore can change. That is why we are holding the guidance at 0.75%. The geopolitical can be anything. There is no identified or a watch list account in terms of any probable slippage. As on today, the book looks very good. On the slippage, the collection efficiency is much better. CRILC at 0.39%. Absolutely, there is no concern in terms of any fresh slippage happening.
Given the very sober or weak non-interest contribution, is it also one of the factors why the Q2 Net Profit is down? Because the contribution from the non-interest income is less?
Yes, that is what I said. TWO non-interest income helping us over and above the normalize that we get out of non-interest income. One is a recovery out of TWO account that happened in the Q2 of last year. Some additional Treasury income normally we get in case the market condition is good. The recovery of NCLT happened in Q2 of last year whereas the Treasury income happened in Q1 of this year. The G-sec almost went down to 6.20%-6.25%. So, the normalize would continue. That is why the non-interest income this quarter is a normalized quarter. Our Treasury income, if there is a positive movement, we will upsize that but the income would be in the extent of ₹1,000 to ₹1,200 crore. The TWO recovery, the normalized rate is something around ₹700-₹750 crore.
You had mentioned about Auto loans picking up after GST cuts. Can you share some color on what kind of demand you are seeing, what kind of uptick you are seeing? And any stress in this book from previous quarters?
First to address, post GST announced on 22nd or 23rd, post that we are almost seeing 25% increase in disbursement vis-à-vis the same period last year (23rd September till the date of 30th October). On a disbursement basis, if you compare, it is almost 26% higher. GST created the demand in the market. The fresh slippage this quarter is lower than that of the Q1 of this year and the Q2 of last year. That shows the sound asset quality the bank is having. And we are not seeing any stress in this particular asset book. We run all this campaign, the festive campaign till 31st December - BOB Ke Sang Tyohaar Ki Umang.
On the floating provision - this quarter you did a ₹400 crores floating provision and said you are going to continue to boost up floating provision. What is the estimate as of now in this quarter that you have estimated that this much provision additionally you have to do?
There is nothing additional but we want to support the buffer that we create as a floating provision. So, this quarter we had an opportunity. When you have the coverage with regard to the Net Profit, you must account for that. We made a ₹400 crores of floating provision. There is no policy as of today with regard to floating provision. But if the space do allow, we will try to augment this buffer. Because this buffer is going to be very useful when the ECL is implemented. There is already a draft guidelines, there is a roadmap to implement that. Typically keeping the ECL framework into eye, we have created this buffer but there is no policy that every quarter we are going to have it.
On the Gold loans - Gold loan advances have seen around 40% year-on-year growth in this quarter. With the gold prices rising, are you a bit cautious on the borrowing limits or on the LTV front? Can you give any guidance as to how much growth can we expect in the Gold loan advances?
As on today, absolutely no. The percentage NPA in the Gold loan book, which consisting of Retail and Agri, is 0.1 something. Very low. The LTV and all do cover the fluctuation in the price. We are just watchful of the market. Post Diwali, immediately there was bit of a fall therein in the price. The minor fluctuation we have seen in the gold price is not going to impact our LTV in any significant manner. We have two segments. The growth in the Agri gold is almost in the range of 35%-40% and we will continue to grow in that segment. Retail is something around 20%-25% and will grow in that manner.
On the debit cards and credit cards market share - last year you were at 10%, currently at 9%. Debit card market share has constantly been degrowing, however credit card you are showing the fastest growth YoY. Why is the debit card market share going down? And what are your aspirations in terms of credit card?
Credit card, there is a spend and there is a book. The book is now something around ₹5,000-₹6,000 crores, which is not significant. We intend to grow faster. On the league table somewhere we are at 13 or 14 on the book terms and we want to get into the Top 10. So, we are quite bullish on the credit card business. On the debit card, as an issuer we are almost the 2nd or 3rd. The usage of debit card has been because of the Digital UPI going down. But for every account when I am increasing my customer base, I have to necessarily give a debit card to each of the customers. Through debit card now multiple non-financial transactions are happening. So, the usage is going up. My strong belief that debit card as a product would continue to be there in the Indian market.
Can we call Q2 a turning point for banks in terms of corporate that corporates are finally coming back to banks for borrowing? Will Q2 be the turning point that going ahead corporates, the growth is going to be there? Is it going to be sustainable?
Look, there are 2-3 qualitative aspects on the Corporate loan book. There are two segments - one is a very fine price segment and another is a normal segment. The normal segment grows at a decent pace whereas the fine price there is a heavy competition. In Q3, Q4 for all the banks on the corporate, because we are getting into a busy season, always the corporate growth is higher. Many of these corporates, they went to the bond market, to the CP market to borrow funds. If you combine the CP as a credit equivalent, the growth would be better than what we have presented to the market as a system as a whole. Full year basis 10%-11%. We had a 10%-11% growth last year also. The nominal GDP at almost 10%-10.5%, all the banks will be in a position to slightly be ahead of the nominal GDP as far as the Corporate credit growth is concerned.
Credit growth this quarter is reasonably good, but overall in six months we have grown only by 3.93%. If you take average 12% guidance, you need to have the total credit for FY26 of 1,48,000 crores growth. We have achieved only 48,000. So almost 1 lakh crore growth in next 5-6 months. Where do we stand on sanctioned pipeline and strategy? Operating profit is down because of treasury, almost 50% from 2,226 crores to 1,086 crores. How will we get treasury benefit in remaining 5.5 months? CRAR ate 107 bps - how do we plan to match credit growth? SMA - we are only given percentage 0.39% but not absolute number and breakup of SMA 0, 1, 2.
Look at the net profit growth this quarter sequentially 6%. Comparing with YoY, there is degrowth because last quarter we had some one-off. Otherwise the net profit is strong, 4,800 crores. Net profit also to be seen in light of a 400 crores floating provision. The corporate credit loan book - the retail going to be doing good. We don't think any challenge at this point of time to slow down the retail growth. On the corporate loan book, yes, things have been muted - muted not only for us, for the system. Q3 and Q4 are normally the better quarters for us. We are giving a guidance of 10 to 11% growth, we are in a position to achieve that. The core corporate is going strong. The area where we are slightly restricted because of margin guidance is a very fine price asset. Banks like us again participate in those markets as part of investment. Many of our own corporate gone to the bond market - they are coming back to the loan market. The corporate that we publish in the analyst presentation is the pure corporate, it's an organic book. So, we'll operate at 10 to 11%. Treasury income - the operating profit we have declared this quarter is the normalized quarter. 7,500 to 8,000 is a normalized operating profit range for us. CRAR - we are quite adequately capitalized. Including profit, the CRAR is 17.36%. AFS reserve has gone down because of the market movement. Couple of AT1 redemption, we didn't replenish it. At current level, excluding profit also, we are highly capitalized. The SMA breakup - the CRILC data only will provide more than 5 crores. Any granular data you want, we can provide offline.
What is the total quantum of interest on IT refund in this quarter? And what would be the NIM ex of this one-off? This is the third consecutive quarter where we have seen decent amount on interest on IT refund. How should we think about it in the future quarters?
See, the IT refund happens as and when we get the refund. If you look at the refund this quarter, it is higher than the last quarter, almost 300 crores. In that way, you can take an impact of the NIM something around 7-8 bps at best, nothing more than that. But IT refund is a normal way every quarter the Bank receives. So, it is not a one-off. It is only the quantum of money that we receive in a quarter. This quarter compared to last quarter, it is in excess of roughly around 3-350 crores. That's how you can translate to 6-7 bps of the NIM. Roughly around 750 crores kind of a number.
On deposit repricing - would you say a large part of deposit repricing is already done by this quarter? Do you expect more in coming quarters? Some PSU banks think about cutting MCLR rates, which can impact yields. How should we think about NIMs from current level in next two quarters, assuming no rate cut?
If you look at the entire squad of banks who have declared their numbers, they would have seen the margin cut. In that scenario, we are given an increase in margin. So, in terms of management of the deposit, it was a prudent management. In terms of the lowest point of the deposit market and the lowest point of the advance market, they are already done in the current scenario. In terms of the repricing of this asset liability, the full effect of the repricing possibly would not have been felt in this quarter. The impact would be felt in the next quarter. There may be a range bound movement of margin next quarter, but a full year basis, we are expecting 2.85 to 3%.
The employee expense provisions have come off in this quarter. Is it simply led by the yield movement? Do you expect that to normalize? On the floating provision of 400 crores, outstanding now 1000 crores, how much more would be required in run up to ECL transition? What would be the one-time transition impact from April 27? What could be the change in steady state credit cost?
The employee provision you are talking about is precisely because of the yield movement. On the pension, the yield movement has gone up from 6.44 to 6.72%. So, there is an increase, for that the amount required is less. Similarly, gratuity also has gone up by almost around 25 bps. So, it is because of the yield movement. On the ECL, these are draft guidelines, a lot of moving parts therein. As a ballpark number, the ECL impact for the full on the CRAR is roughly around 1.25%. That would be spread over a period of 5 years. There is also guidelines with regard to credit, the RWA - that is going to give us almost 60 bps positive because there is a RWA reduction. So, net to net, the impact for a 5-year impact is almost like 75 bps maximum. On a recurring basis on a provisional requirement, it can impact the credit cost almost to the extent of 20 to 25 bps maximum. But these are very ballpark provisional numbers.
Given growth on corporate side has been quite active, plus on the deposit side, the wholesale deposits have grown quite stronger - 15% up QoQ, 17% YoY. So these two have some pressure on margins. On PL the GNPAs have gone up again to 4.81%. Last quarter was 4.48. We are hearing that the incremental stress formation is subsiding in PL. Should we believe that GNPAs in PL have peaked?
Look, on the wholesale deposit, we have been saying that the dependency we want to reduce. In terms of percentage of retail deposit, term deposit or overall deposit, it has as a percentage gone down. The retail term deposit growth is 9.1%. The wholesale including CD is 17%. There is some component which has gone into it. But this is precisely out of the CD increase in outstanding. The certificate of deposit, these are short term, having a much lower pricing. So, there is no pricing impact on this 17 vis-à-vis 9. On the overall retail, the slippage has been lower than last quarter. The retail slippage numbers are given. PL is a very small component - outstanding PL books is roughly around 12,000 crores. If I look at the slippage of the PL this quarter, it is lower than the last quarter. The pressure on the PL book is no more there. Rather, we should see improvement in this number going through.
On recovery from written off accounts (TWO), the income is lower. Do you want to reduce reliance or is it going to remain volatile and lumpy in future quarters? If ECL were implemented, your credit costs would move up by 25 bps. Is that what we should build in structurally to assess long-term ROAs? How much of MCLR repricing is left? How much more can MCLR go down?
Coming to recovery of written off, our normalized run rate is roughly around 700 to 750 crores. The Q2 of last year that was elevated 2500 crores. This quarter it is 493 crores, which is definitely below the run rate. But going by the pipeline cases, I think we'll come back to our normalized 700 to 750 crores per quarter on the recovery of the TWO. On the ECL impact, the credit cost - this is a ballpark back of the envelope calculation. We have provided floating provision keeping the ECL framework in mind. We think we need to create buffer, but we have not decided as a policy how much to do it, what time to do it. MCLR - my book is almost 35-36% now. The computation of MCLR depends on the moderation in cost of deposit. If further moderation going to happen on the cost of deposit based on repricing, obviously we'll pass on those benefits. It's a model which is a tested model. It's a calculation already hard-coded. So I cannot say how much it would go down.
We saw very strong growth in NBFC portfolio this quarter quarter-on-quarter. Just wanted to check, those were Repo linked, MCLR linked, and what was the yield, 7.1-7.2%?
Look, NBFC, what happened actually, there was a lower growth in NBFC book, rather the demand from the NBFC was lower in last quarter. So in terms of NBFC as a percentage of book, it has not gone from the peak level, rather below the peak level. We have a policy on that, we have a threshold therein, we're all operating within the policy. In terms of pricing of NBFC, normally we get MCLR linked, but some of them can be Repo linked. The yield is quite good out of NBFC. Our A and above book has gone up. So we're creating good quality NBFC book at the same time we are mindful of the yield.
What CD ratio are we comfortable with for global and domestic? What credit to deposit ratio would we be comfortable with? Our write-off declined quarter on quarter from 2400 to 1000 crores. At what net NPA or gross NPA level would be comfortable? Do you plan to accelerate write-off?
We're at 85 now. When the deposit is not growing, obviously you can't reduce your LDR or the CD ratio. But we are comfortable operating at 82 to 85. Our LCR is good, our CRAR is good. Our ability to grow is much higher. Once the deposit cycle improves, then possibly we can think of lowering, but we are okay with 85 level. My SLR, I am surplus in SLR. LCR is comfortable. CRAR is good. So I don't have to be worried about any level on the LDR. In terms of write-off, we have much lower write-off as compared to earlier quarter and still the GNPA is so low. In terms of TWO recovery, we intend to upsize this going forward. Our normal run rate is up to around 700 to 750 crores. The TWO kitty is roughly around 63,000 as on today. So in case we can do write-off, we can do much higher, but then we are going at the normal level. There is no guidance for GNPA to what level to, but the current levels are quite strong.