Throughline · holding view Deep analysis Q1 FY26
BRITANNIA Britannia Industries · FMCG Q1 FY26 · concall
Pattern: adjacency businesses rusk croissant

Q4 broke the GST tailwind narrative: revenue +7.1% (vs ~12% Nov-Dec), West Asia/Mundra disruption erupted, fuel+laminate inflation forced calibrated price hikes, regional-competition framing went s…

2 deflections · 5 weak · 17 clean pushback across 7 of 24 Q&A turns

Focused evidence 7 of 24

Abneesh Roy · Nuvama Wealthweak

In croissant and wafers are you the number 1 player, and is the 40% dairy GT growth a base effect or sustainable?

Dairy GT growth is sustainable for several years now that Britannia is price competitive, having previously sat at a 25-30% premium to its largest competitor. Modern trade and other channels still need to be fixed.

Mihir Shah · Nomuraweak

Volume growth is only ~2% versus peers improving from 4Q to 1Q; is the East distribution rejig hurting volume and are there green shoots?

With the inflation seen, revenue growth will exceed volume growth and transactions are the better metric, with transaction growth at 12%. The volume-revenue delta should remain at 6-8% for the next 2-3 quarters before volume catches up.

Nitin · Emkay Globalweak

How is the SAR INR 52 crores impact calculated and how should we model it going forward?

The SAR charge is fully dependent on stock price movements as employee SARs are revalued each period. Britannia plans to smooth this out better in the next financial year.

Latika Chopra · JPMorgandeflection

Do you anticipate further acceleration in revenue growth through the rest of FY26 given pricing is largely behind us?

Global uncertainty including US trade tensions makes consumer sentiment hard to judge. Britannia hopes to sustain the strong Q1 momentum through the year.

Percy Panthaki · IIFL Securitiesdeflection

How big is the duty cut plus base price cut in gross margin terms; 50 bps or 100 bps?

It is difficult to put a quantification on the gross margin impact because international prices also move and interact with the duty cut. No specific number was provided.

Nihal Jham · HSBCweak

Has regional competition shifted from being purely RM-driven to being innovation-led and more structural?

Industry margins have moved from 3-4% to teens over 14 years, attracting Indian entrepreneurs whenever margin potential exists. Some regional players will sustain themselves and Britannia must read their strategies and act to defend its numbers in those territories.

Amit Sachdeva · UBS Groupweak

How should one think about the SAR P&L impact for a 10% increase in stock price in a quarter or two?

In a normal market the SAR charge moves with stock price, but the recent turbulence with the stock falling and recovering created an unusually wide range and hence the bump. With smoother conditions the charge volatility should reduce.

Other Q&A (17)
Abneesh Roy · Nuvama Wealth

Is there a resurgence of the number 3 player ITC in biscuits, and why is the market share issue restricted to only 2 regions out of 7?

The region with turmoil is the East, driven by an internal restructuring to mega distributors rather than regional player aggression, which let local players gain. ITC has been very rational and competition overall has been clean, with shares within band.

Abneesh Roy · Nuvama Wealth

Will the mega distributor restructuring drive better long-term margins, and is the inflation-deflation cycle a worry on demand?

Britannia is no longer worried about the inflation-deflation cycle as conditions have stabilized. The mega distributor strategy is aimed at gaining better control of the fragmented Eastern distribution and putting in the right processes.

Mihir Shah · Nomura

With commodities cooling and ~7.5-8% pricing in the system, has gross margin bottomed and can we expect sequential improvement?

Q1 still carried prior-quarter inflation that had not been fully mitigated through price increases, but pricing is now complete. With commodities within a band, margins can only improve from here.

Nitin · Emkay Global

A&P spend was reduced 19% last year; how are you investing behind brands and what is the digital spend strategy?

A&P was rationalized in Q1 with a focus on IPL and digital across the top 4 brands, given inflation pressures. From this quarter Britannia is back to normal A&P spend levels.

Nitin · Emkay Global

What is the salience of quick commerce given e-commerce is 4% and you have offerings like Fox Nuts, Be You Protein Bars and Croissant?

Quick commerce contributes about 75% of total digital commerce business, with non-biscuit categories at 8%+ salience. Croissant draws ~35% of sales from e-comm and Pure Magic Stars draws ~50% from q-commerce, making digital channels critical for innovations.

Latika Chopra · JPMorgan

Will higher competitive spends to deal with regional competition pressure EBITDA margins for full year FY26?

Pricing is complete and Britannia has built a war chest to spend selectively against regional players in specific territories. With commodity cycles stabilizing, management is confident of sustaining or improving FY26 EBITDA margins versus last year.

Latika Chopra · JPMorgan

What is your outlook on other operating income for full-year FY26 and what is the capex plan?

Other operating income was elevated in Q1FY25 due to a Ranjangaon ultra-mega project windfall and will be linear hereafter. Capex for FY26 will be tight at around INR 100 crores, much lower than recent years.

Percy Panthaki · IIFL Securities

When will the palm oil cost and duty reduction hit; is it Q1, Q2 or Q3?

The government duty reduction came around May 2025. Part of the benefit landed in Q1, but the larger impact will come in Q2.

Percy Panthaki · IIFL Securities

Will commodity-driven cost benefits be passed on to consumers or retained to repair margins?

Britannia will largely retain the commodity benefits rather than passing them on. Targeted price actions may be taken in specific territories where competitive intensity demands it.

Percy Panthaki · IIFL Securities

Is the Hindi heartland the main driver of company-wide growth, or can other regions deliver mid-single-digit volume growth over the next 3-5 years?

The Hindi belt is a focus area for market share but is not the only growth driver. Britannia must grow penetration across all states including the South to deliver overall company growth.

Percy Panthaki · IIFL Securities

Is the South still a mid-single-digit growth industry given high penetration and per capita consumption?

Within aggregate share there are subcategories with significant headroom such as Wafers and Croissant in the South where Britannia is underleveraged. Growth is a grid of channel and geography, with modern trade and quick commerce adding new dimensions.

Tejash Shah · Avendus Spark

Are there portfolio gaps in health, nutrition and wellness given strong traction for D2C/quick commerce brands like SuperYou?

Britannia is tracking health and indulgence trends and has launched NutriChoice 100% Millets for health and Pure Magic Choco Tarts plus Milk Bikis Smart for indulgence and kids' nutrition. Management agrees start-ups in adjacent categories warrant continued attention.

Tejash Shah · Avendus Spark

What is the progress on the distribution reforms (RTM) called out last quarter to increase volume per output?

The RTM project has been live for 4 months with one-third of scope rolled out and a target of 70% of urban retail in the next 4-5 months. Pilot stores show high single-digit delta growth in biscuits and even higher in Cake, Rusk and Croissant.

Tejash Shah · Avendus Spark

Is the positive raw material outlook based on specific markers or just general optimism?

The view is grounded in basic supply-demand construct of the commodities, which has been factored in. That gives confidence that the price outlook should be quite stable.

Nihal Jham · HSBC

Can you give more color on cakes and breads within the adjacency portfolio?

Bread is doing well with good growth and improving margins, with footprint now expanded beyond the North into Hyderabad, Bangalore, Chennai and Mumbai. Cake growth is single digit because the move from INR 10 to INR 15 price points caused volume losses; the strategy is being reassessed and Brownie within Cake is doing extremely well.

Jay Doshi · Kotak Securities

If the stock stays at current levels for the next 2-3 quarters, is this INR 52 crores SAR charge the full year amount?

Yes, if the stock price is stable there will be no further SAR charge. A 10% move would add only a small incremental amount, though Ramamurthy Jayaraman clarified the Black-Scholes model means it is not a simple linear extrapolation.

Jay Doshi · Kotak Securities

What is your current market share in quick commerce, the channel's competitive and fragmentation risks, profitability versus other channels and share of A&P spend?

Q-commerce is 75% of e-commerce, supplied to 160 cities and 3,500 dark stores, with Britannia's e-commerce market share running about 500 bps higher than overall share. The channel is in investment phase for profitability, augments the core distribution rather than conflicting with INR 5/10 price packs, and profitability is driven by premium mix like NutriChoice.

Prepared remarks (3 blocks)
Varun Berry opened by noting Q1FY26 revenue growth of <strong>9.8%</strong> (12-month) and 14.2% (24-month), with PAT growth of 3% for 12 months and 14% for 24 months. Britannia gained share against organized players in 5 of 7 regions and remained flattish overall on Nielsen. Commodities were stable in Q1: flour up 8% YoY, palm oil down sequentially but up 45% YoY, cocoa down sequentially but up 35% YoY; sugar, laminates and CBBs within guardrails. Strategic priorities highlighted: rural distributors being upgraded to full-scale, RTM project for high-potential outlets, e-commerce at 4% of business. Hindi belt grew at very high double digits with 65 bps share gain. Marketing campaigns: Good Day, 50-50 with Ravi Shastri, Jim Jam, Milk Bikis with Gukesh, Marie Gold StartUp Show, pride-month inclusivity. Innovations: Pure Magic Stars, Harry Potter Pure Magic Choco Frames, Butter Jeera Good Day, Fruit and Nut, Pure Magic Choco Tarts, 100% Millet NutriChoice, Milk Bikis Smart with DHA.
Premium product salience up <strong>310 bps</strong>. Adjacencies: Rusk double-digit growth and improved profitability; Croissant mid-20s growth at breakeven; Wafers ~30% growth; Dairy GT 40% growth; milkshakes double-digit. ESG: 4% renewable electricity move, 3.5% water reduction, 1.8% woman workforce contribution. Outlook: management does not expect wide commodity fluctuations going forward; price increases have been fully taken to cover inflation. Consolidated revenue INR 4,535 crores; PAT/PBT 3% growth, profit from operations ~15%, PBT 15.5%, PAT 11.5%. SAR revaluation impact of INR 52 crores; ex-SAR bottom-line growth would be 13%.
Consolidated revenue of INR <strong>4,535 crore</strong>s, representing 12-month growth of 9.8% (called 10%) and 24-month growth of 14.2%. PAT and PBT growth of 3% on 12-month basis, 14% on 24-month basis. Profit from operations growth of ~15%, PBT growth of 15.5%, PAT growth of 11.5%. SAR (stock appreciation rights) revaluation drove a INR 52 crores impact on overall profit; excluding SAR, bottom-line growth would have been 13% on a 10% top-line. Underlying employee cost ex-SAR was approximately INR 190 crores for the quarter. Capex guidance of approximately INR 100 crores for FY26, much lower than past years; recent capacity additions in Tirunelveli, UP and Orissa. A&P spends were rationalized in Q1 with focus on IPL and digital across top 4 brands; back to normal A&P levels in Q2. Other operating income lower YoY because Q1FY25 had a Ranjangaon ultra-mega project windfall; from here on linear. Premium product salience improved 310 bps. E-commerce ~4% of overall business with q-commerce ~75% of digital; ~500 bps higher market share in e-commerce versus overall.
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