Throughline · holding view Deep analysis Q1 FY26
DALBHARAT Dalmia Bharat Ltd · Cement Q1 FY26 · concall
Pattern: volume market share losses

JPA acquisition narrative quietly dropped from FY28 75mt path.

4 deflections · 5 weak · 15 clean pushback across 9 of 24 Q&A turns

Focused evidence 9 of 24

Amit Murarka · Axis Capitalweak

On volume and market share - you have been flat Y-o-Y even excluding tolling. South and East did well in Q1. Could you talk about market share losses and how you plan to arrest it?

The story is not same across all states. Our priority is to balance volume growth and profit margins in each market. We have improved our price positioning in many markets. We have improved realization growth better than what the industry has done. We will continue with this strategy where we will improve the quality of sales and ensure profitable volume growth in the coming quarters. Our brand is getting stronger, distribution is getting deeper and sales productivity is improving.

Ashish Jain · Macquarie Indiadeflection

Can you differentiate between growth in South and East? Where have you been most conscious on market share versus margin strategy?

I don't think we can share that granularly. There are markets where we want to prioritize margins, markets where we want to prioritize market share. We don't want to reveal our state-by-state or region-wise strategy on this call.

Devesh Agarwal · IIFL Capitaldeflection

You're putting more capacities in South where utilization is higher. What is the difference between East utilization and South utilization?

I just said that we don't share region-wise data, and we will continue to maintain that stand. Even if you ask that question in 3 different ways, we are not going to reveal our region-wise utilization or state-by-state or region-wise strategy.

Devesh Agarwal · IIFL Capitalweak

On NSR being higher than price hike - what is the current gap that you have in each region or overall, and what is the target to narrow that?

This depends state by state and brand by brand. We want to be the top price brand in every state possible and it is a journey. We don't want to do sale with low margins. We want to operate in customer segments that give better margins - broadly trade segment, premiumize product mix where strong, and choose institutional segments carefully. Hard to quantify how much further spread is possible, but with deepening cost leadership and improving NSR we should be able to deliver top decile EBITDA per ton in the industry.

Ritesh Shah · Investecweak

How do you look at this discount number versus net pricing? Is it a KRA for sales/marketing folks that this should decline?

This is an issue we are looking at on what is the best way to streamline. There is an industry behaviour issue and we operate in a competitive environment. In this industry the pricing is a little bit opaque - bringing more transparency in pricing is a constant endeavour. In markets where we are strong we are able to take tough calls. In markets where brand is weak we have to work harder. It's a journey, over time there'll be more transparency.

Sumangal Nevatia · Kotak Securitiesweak

On the Jaypee bid - what is your plan for the non-cement assets which come as a combination? And what timeline are you looking at for resolution?

We are a pure-play company and want to look at the cement business in a strategic manner. As far as CoC is concerned, they are going to review it this week and give us a better sense of timeline. They have not given any firm date but want to find an early resolution.

Kunal Shah · DAM Capital Advisorsdeflection

On Jaisalmer project - how much capital is already committed and how crucial are government subsidies before further commitment given long lead distance and higher capex?

We cannot comment on that right now. We will comment once we are ready to announce the project.

Prateek Kumar · Jefferiesweak

Net debt position from current INR800 crores including the three projects (excluding Jaisalmer)? Expected cash outflow if you win JPA bid?

With currently announced projects, net debt should go up to about INR5,000 crores or so, which is within capital allocation policy. For JP, we cannot comment until matter closes with CoC because there could be timing issues on how money gets paid. When it comes, we'll do proper announcement and give the whole breakup.

Raashi Chopra · Citigroupdeflection

Have you given any volume guidance for this year? At what point will you start using auction limestone? What's the premium for Jaisalmer limestone?

We don't give volume guidance. Aditi added: as we expand into newer regions, auction limestone will probably start coming into play because Jaisalmer will be an auction mine. Puneet: In the next 2-3 years there's going to be very little auction limestone, not going to move our cost curve at all. 3-4 years later, marginal shift but not material. On Jaisalmer premium - I don't remember; Aditi will give it later after the call.

Other Q&A (15)
Amit Murarka · Axis Capital

On production and inventory at end of quarter - how much was production and inventory sitting at exit June?

This buildup of the inventory typically happens every first quarter because by the end of the year, the entire industry sells all stocks from plants and depots. It gradually builds up in Q1, remains flattish during Q2/Q3 and Q4 again it gets released. Slightly higher than Y-o-Y, about INR100 crores. Puneet Dalmia added it's a seasonality effect, nothing unusual this year.

Ashish Jain · Macquarie India

On expansion - currently guiding roughly 62 million tons in March '27, aspiring to 75 by '28. Why are you hesitant on going all out on addition, and how does Jaisalmer fit if JPA acquisition is uncertain?

We are not at all hesitant. We can press the button on construction in Q1 of next financial year in Jaisalmer. JPA acquisition is under process - JP is minimum 5 million tons of cement (Rewa, Churk, Chunar) and could be greater depending on BJCL and the Ultratech arbitration. We are absolutely not stopping. Land purchase is done, mining lease is done, environment clearance in process. We have to review the situation in March '26, which still gives us time to complete by March '28. We are even developing projects for our next phase to take us to 100 million plus by FY '31.

Ritesh Shah · Investec

You said the endeavour is to go pan-India, but recent announcements are South and West India including Pune. Why did you decide on Rajasthan optionality versus what was just announced?

Our overall strategy is to create a pan-India footprint while creating significant presence in each market. Our Kadapa plant is operating at high utilization, so it's important to deepen presence in Northern Tamil Nadu, Southern Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. We are also developing projects in regions we don't operate in - Jaisalmer and Jaypee (Central India). Both pan-India footprint and significant presence in existing markets are important.

Ritesh Shah · Investec

On the ED provisional attachment with respect to Kadapa limestone (~417 hectares) - is this any form of risk?

This is a provisional attachment. We have challenged it and we think the case is unsustainable. We do not see any risk in terms of expansion or mines. We have been operating this for the last 14 years with literally no issue. We don't foresee any risk of disrupting operations.

Ritesh Shah · Investec

Discounts in the marketplace have nearly doubled over last 4 years to ~INR1,200 per ton. How should we understand the marketing strategy with this number?

There are markets where we made sales on lower margins - we have to improve quality of sales, brand positioning, and deepen distribution. That is exactly what we are doing and green shoots are visible. Dharmender Tuteja added that last year industry tried to increase prices but most of the time they didn't hold and had to be given back as discounts - that price increase not made effective also shows up in discount in the annual report.

Rahul Gupta · Morgan Stanley

Strong pricing during the quarter sustained in July despite weak demand. Are we seeing pricing discipline in the industry, or is this near-term and we may see competitive environment return post-monsoon? Second, are we moving away from 75 mt and 110-130 mt capacity targets?

At current margin levels, no new capacity creation is viable. As consolidation happens, it will boost pricing power and margins will become respectable. Top players are taking disproportionate share of growth. There will be blips - this is not linear. We should not get swayed by quarter-on-quarter volatility. Best strategy is to take long-term view and invest. We have deep faith in India and our execution capabilities. Currently I'm quite optimistic prices will hold in the near term, but it's a cyclical business.

Sumangal Nevatia · Kotak Securities

Timing of expansion - given operating at ~60% utilization at company level, won't we be better off going for expansion at 70-75% utilization?

Our utilization is not the same across all regions - need a granular approach. It takes time to build new capacity. We were behind the curve in acquiring land, permits and mining leases. We want to be in absolute state of readiness. We are within our capital allocation framework. We will continue to sweat existing assets - intent is profitable growth and returns on capital, not nameplate capacity.

Satyadeep Jain · Ambit Capital

What specifically have you done to improve price positioning? Are you vacating non-profitable markets? What steps to improve brand positioning, and how does this tie with adding capacity?

Strategy is very clear. We will continue to invest with a clear vision India will do well and consolidation will increase. There were unprofitable segments we were operating in - we don't want to operate in those segments now. Different strategy for every micro market balancing growth and profitability. Creating discipline in which segments to chase, leeway on discounting strengthens the brand. Distributors can dilute the brand if discipline isn't enforced. We are engaging deeper, giving clear messages. If it means trade-offs in unprofitable segments, we will make them.

Satyadeep Jain · Ambit Capital

Can we expect volume growth in line or above industry along with profitability focus?

Long term, yes; short term, we'll have to make a balance.

Satyadeep Jain · Ambit Capital

On capex - between Jaisalmer and Nawalgarh, you're pressing Jaisalmer. Is Nawalgarh less feasible? Risk of leases going away if delayed? Wouldn't layering be more prudent versus 18-20 mt simultaneously?

64 million tons is firm. We will look at how Jaypee plays out and be in state of readiness for all projects. We will take a call by March 2026 on whether to press the button on Jaisalmer. We have layered and created scenarios that manage risk fairly well. We will review every quarter, see how Jaypee plays out and how execution plays out.

Kunal Shah · DAM Capital Advisors

On Kadapa capex - 6 mt grinding at Kadapa with bulk terminal at Chennai - explain the strategy versus a split grinding unit in down south Tamil Nadu.

We examined whether to put a grinding unit in Chennai or a blending unit. From an economic standpoint, it is better to put all grinding in Kadapa and just a bulk terminal in Chennai. We want to balance capex and servicing the market - this was more economically viable.

Jashandeep Singh Chadha · Nomura

The 150-200 per ton cost saving was announced last year - has any of it come till now and which key heads will it be? Second, on JP - is one reason the auction premium for Jaisalmer (12-15%) versus no auction premium on central limestone?

We had said this was a 3 year journey from Q1 FY '25 to reduce cost by 150-200 per ton. We are doing work on renewable energy, some visible by H2 of this year. Logistics optimization will play out by Q4 of this year and into next year. On JP - it accelerates entry into the market. Auction premium is one issue but overall we want to build a Pan-India footprint and it's in line with strategy.

Shravan Shah · Dolat Capital

Capex breakup - how much has been spent on Umrangso and Belgaum till Q1FY26? How much of INR4,000 crore FY26 capex remaining? What about FY27 capex excluding Jaisalmer/JP?

For Umrangso, we're almost done - trial run starts September. About INR600-800 crores will probably get spent this fiscal on Umrangso. On Belgaum, the number should be closer to INR1,400-1,600 crores this year as most capex incurred by Q4'27. Of total INR4,000 crore capex, approximately 75-80% will go into announced growth projects and procuring land. Balance 20% supports RE, maintenance, ROI improvements. For FY27, capex should be similar to INR4,000 crores again, with approximately 70-75% growth capex and balance for maintenance/ROI/renewable.

Pathanjali Srinivasan · Sundaram Mutual Fund

Marketing spend reduced from FY24 to FY25 - any change in strategy? Earlier INR75-80 per ton, now declined to INR50.

Aditi Mittal said no change. Dharmender added there was a one-time brand launch expense, otherwise continuing the same. Going forward as we deepen brand leadership this will slightly go up. The focus has slightly shifted on the BTL expenditure closer to the markets - earlier the brand was launched, more ATL on IPL sponsorship; those things are shifted towards BTL.

Rajesh Ravi · HDFC Securities

On Northeast expansion - what incentives do these plants (grinding unit and clinker unit) bring? On annual basis how much could Dalmia accrue? Repeat the incentives accrued/collected this quarter.

On the capex, we had 200% of the incentive on total fixed cost investment, for 20 years. At a macro level, we see about INR100 per ton for the company as a whole rather than getting into project-specific per ton basis. This quarter: INR84 crores accrued and INR42 crores received.

Prepared remarks (5 blocks)
Welcome to Q1 earnings call of Dalmia Bharat. We've uploaded our results and the presentation on the website. I hope you've had a chance to go through it. With this, I'll hand over the call to Mr. Dalmia for his opening remarks.
I will break my opening remarks into 5 sections. The first section is economy and demand. The second section will be capacity and our expansion plans. The third section would be prices and future outlook. The fourth is our cost reduction journey. And the fifth is our key priorities. Fiscal '26 has started on a positive note with India surpassing Japan and becoming the fourth largest economy in the world. As per RBI, the economy is expected to maintain its growth momentum with GDP expected to grow at <strong>6.5%</strong> in financial year '26. I believe that in financial year '26, the sector should be able to deliver a healthy cement demand growth of somewhere around 6% to 7%. This growth will be supported by strong government spending and a booming housing sector. Having said that, the start to the year has been a bit slower than our expectations, with uncertainty from cross-border tensions and early arrival of monsoon. The government appears to have front-loaded its capex spending INR2.2 lakh crores in April and May alone. Based on current trends, we believe cement demand grew in the low to mid-single digits in Q1 of FY '26, but we expect it to pick up pace once the monsoon precedes. Coming to the supply at the industry level in the next 2 years, almost 70% of the new capacity will be added by the top 4 players, which will accelerate the pace of industry consolidation. We continue to invest in the sector with a clear vision of becoming a pan-India player. In February 2025, we have already announced an investment to establish a 3.6 million ton per annum clinker unit in Belgaum, along with a 3 million ton per annum grinding unit at our existing Belgaum plant, coupled with new 3 million tons greenfield grinding unit in Pune.
The Belgaum grinding units will primarily cater to the markets of North Karnataka and Southern Maharashtra while the Pune grinding unit will serve the untapped Western Maharashtra market. Second, the Board has approved an investment of <strong>3.6 million</strong> tons per annum clinker unit with a 6 million tons per annum grinding unit at our existing Kadapa plant, supported by 3 million tons per annum bulk terminal in Chennai at an estimated capex of INR3,287 crores. Third, with the upcoming commissioning of a new clinker line of 3.6 million tons per annum at Umrangso in Assam, we will become clinker surplus in the Northeast region, and we are evaluating the best location to add additional 2 million to 2.5 million tons per annum of grinding capacity. With these 3 projects, Belgaum, Kadapa, and further expansion supported by Northeast clinker, we would add 14 million to 14.5 million tons per annum of cement capacity, and this would take our total cement capacity to around 63.5 million to 64 million tons per annum by financial year '28. Further, we are working on finalizing a new 6 million tons per annum greenfield expansion in Jaisalmer to access the North India market. However, before committing to the Jaisalmer project in North, we would like to wait for the outcome of our bid for acquisition of Jaiprakash Associates. While the pace of cement demand did slow down a bit, we have seen a very healthy improvement in prices across our key operating regions. The Southern region, in particular, saw a good recovery in prices this quarter bouncing back from the lows we witnessed last year. In the East, prices largely held steady. Our realization improvement in many markets has been higher than the price increase, which is visible in our 9% Q-o-Q NSR improvement. On the cost side, we are consistently working to deepen our cost position as one of the lowest cost cement producers. We are committed to reduce Rs 150 to 200 per ton over the next two-year period and are working on the identified levers, as we have stated earlier. My priorities are very clear, build capacity for the future, staying focused on our long-term goal to become a pan-India player, while staying within the guardrails of our capital allocation framework. Two, deliver profitable growth through doubling down efforts on strengthening our brand equity. Second, we further want to deepen our cost leadership with investment in building capabilities and improving operating efficiencies. And third, we want to build, develop, and sustain a strong leadership pipeline and younger team while creating a caring culture within the organization.
Thank you, Puneet Ji. Let me walk you through our financial performance. First of all, I am very pleased with our performance this quarter, as we have delivered the highest ever EBITDA of INR<strong>883 crore</strong>s during the quarter. This EBITDA growth is not only supported by the market price improvement in our operating regions, but also because we have started to see an improvement in the quality of our sales. Our share of trade sales improved to 68% from 64% last year. Premium product mix also stood steady at 22% during the quarter. Direct dispatch percentage, which had been hovering around 55% over the last several years, has now reached 62% during the quarter. While our sales volumes de-grew by 6% Y-o-Y to 7 million tons. But if you look at the sales from Dalmia plants, that is excluding the tolling volumes from JP plants last year, our volumes remained flattish in Q1 FY '26. The revenues have remained flattish at INR3,636 crores in Q1 FY '26. Our raw material cost per ton of cement production increased by 8.5% Y-o-Y to INR791. This increase was primarily due to the new mineral tax imposed by the government of Tamil Nadu. On the other hand, power and fuel cost per ton of cement production declined by 2% Y-o-Y to INR981. This was driven by decline in fuel rate from $106 per ton in Q1 of FY '25 to $100 per ton in Q1 of FY '26. The blended fuel cost during the quarter stood at INR1.33 on per Kcal basis. Spot prices are currently hovering at around $108 per ton. During the quarter, we have commissioned 26 megawatts of RE capacity through opex model. This has increased our RE consumption percentage to 41% in Q1 FY '26 from 35% in the last year. The CC ratio also improved from 1.67 in Q1 FY '25 to 1.71 in Q1 FY '26. Our logistic cost during the quarter increased marginally by 2% on Y-o-Y basis to INR1,135 per ton. Though our lead distance increased by about 8 kilometers to 280 kilometres in Q1 FY '26.
But as I mentioned, our direct dispatch percentage improved in the positive direction to 62%. Our absolute EBITDA improved by 32% Y-o-Y to INR883 crores and EBITDA per ton, thus works out to INR1,261 on a per ton basis, and this is a 40% increase on a Y-o-Y basis. Our EBITDA margin during the quarter was 24.3% in Q1 FY '26, which is a good jump of almost 5.8% from the same quarter last year. During the quarter, we accrued INR84 crores in incentives, while collections are lower at INR42 crores. The incentive outstanding at the end of the quarter was INR780 crores including INR250 crores from the Government of West Bengal. Our clinker unit at Umrangso is nearing completion, and we plan to start trial runs in September this year. With this, the commercial production should start in Q3 of FY '26. The work on the Belgaum-Pune project is in full swing with all major orders placed while civil work is under progress. The project remains on track for completion and is expected to come online by the end of FY '27. During the quarter, we have incurred capex of INR612 crores. For the full year FY '26, we expect our capex spending to be about INR4,000 crores. During the quarter, the company through its subsidiary has sold INR3.7 crores shares in IEX. Post the sales our holding in IEX has been brought down to 10.8%. Our gross debt at the end of the quarter stood at INR6,456 crores while net debt was at INR873 crores. The resulting net debt to EBITDA stands at 0.33x. During the quarter, we had issued NCDs and raised INR950 crores of debt. Even with the ongoing expansion projects, we remain confident of staying below the 2x of net debt-to-EBITDA threshold.
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