Throughline · holding view Deep analysis Q4 FY26
HAL Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd · Defense Q4 FY26 · concall
Pattern: lca delivery slippage risk

New CMD Ravi Kota replaces D.K.

3 deflections · 5 weak · 18 clean pushback across 8 of 26 Q&A turns

Focused evidence 8 of 26

Atul Tiwari · JPMorganweak

Is there a risk that the delivery schedule spills well beyond August and possibly only in the very fag end of FY '27?

No. This time, because GE has committed more engines this year. So with that, we are hopeful now that by August or September, we should be able to start the delivery.

Atul Tiwari · JPMorgandeflection

The delay in the delivery of the first 6 aircraft appears to be beyond the engine because those aircraft are ready. Based on media reports, it looks like there is some software issue. Could you throw some light on what is holding it up?

The testing, whatever has been done, is only for refining whatever has already been tested. So this is a continuous process. So since there are more technicalities involved in that, I will restrict myself to saying that we are moving in a very positive direction, and we are hopeful that by August or September, we should be able to start the deliveries.

Umesh Raut · Nomuraweak

On the LCA program — what went wrong in terms of execution delays apart from engine supplies from GE? What is left in terms of testing where we can get confident of deliveries by the second quarter end?

These refinements, we need to meet certain parameters. So these requirements are -- because these are all design and development projects, they have to go through iterations. So we are going through the iterations of that. The results are very promising. But still, some refinements are required. We are confident that we will be able to meet the September deadline.

Umesh Raut · Nomuraweak

On supply chain risk beyond GE engines — are you seeing any disruption for radars or engines in Sukhoi, LCH, HTT-40?

I will not say disruption, but slowness is there. There is a slowness. But when we have discussions with them, and now we have started discussing with their Tier 1, Tier 2 vendors also, we are getting confident that we should be able to get the items. There may be minor delays, but we are confident that we will be getting within the time required for me to complete the platform and delivery.

Mohit Pandey · Citigroupweak

With 5, 6 programs in parallel in next 2 years, with LCH Prachand also coming for delivery and Su-30, how are we placed on manpower and resources? What could be the peak aircraft and helicopter delivery in '28 or '29?

All the deliveries for the next year will be as per the contract. We are trying to increase our efficiency inside. We are trying to outsource because we have partnered with so many people outside to do the main full structures so that I will be the core integrator. We are trying to in-source as much as possible so that my manpower cost remains as low as possible. '28, '29, we are talking about 2 to 3 years down the line, but we have not closed our recruitment process also. It will be a balancing one, more of outsourcing, in-sourcing, and some recruitment will also be there in due course.

Shirom Kapur · Jefferiesdeflection

On the INR90,000 crore order pipeline over next 2 years — beyond 143 ALH and 40 Dornier upgrade, what other programs (UH-M, LUH LSP)? Timelines, quantities, values?

Since these contracts are not yet 100% finalized, that's why I did not give detailed numbers for each contract because it takes time. The major contributor will be the ALH 137 program. And as usual, your ROH program will be at the same level.

Harshit · Elara Capitaldeflection

On news of a penalty on GE for the delayed engines — would that be from you, or from MoD? Any quantum?

These are all commercial activities as per the purchase order with GE. We are talking about only the penalty. There are so many terms and conditions, which is available in the contract. It's not the right time to say what the penalties will be — we cannot quantify them right now. Let the delivery happen, then we'll see.

Harshit · Elara Capitalweak

On AMCA program — possibility of HAL involvement during production? And SU-57 order possibility?

The current tender, the RFI which was placed, is for the D&D program only, that is to build prototypes. And they have not indicated that the same person will do production. So we are hopeful that we will participate in that. And as far as SU-57 is concerned, it's the government's call, so we cannot comment on that right now.

Other Q&A (18)
Atul Tiwari · JPMorgan

What is the status of the start of delivery of LCA Mark-1A to the Air Force? When can we expect the Air Force to accept the first lot? And what is the revenue growth and EBITDA margin guidance for FY '27?

We have 6 engines received from GE now, and all these aircraft are flying. There are few tests still undergoing, and we are going to discuss the same with the Air Force in the coming months. So we are hoping to resolve everything and stabilize by August or September. As far as revenue growth is concerned, we are hopeful that we'll be maintaining a double-digit growth in the current financial year '26-'27. And the EBITDA margin, we have always maintained around 30%, 31%, and it will be maintained.

Umesh Raut · Nomura

What are our action plans in terms of mitigating execution risks in other programs like HTT-40 or LCH? And execution timelines for LCH and Sukhoi 12 Mark-1A aircraft?

Whatever risk mitigation, we are trying to identify more than one vendor for the supply of items, whether it is indigenous or from a foreign source. As far as Su-30 or the HTT-40 is concerned, all the purchase orders required are already placed with the vendors. There is a little bit of a difference between LCA and LCH. LCH is our own design product. HTT-40 is our own design product. And LCA, it's a joint production between ADA and HAL. So we are confident this helicopter, LCH, and HTT-40, is on the right track. LCH, hopefully, as per contract '27-'28, and we'll be able to deliver in time.

Umesh Raut · Nomura

Quantify revenue growth — where exactly is this growth expected to come from? How much increase over INR9,200 crore manufacturing in '27?

When I said double digit -- see current year, if you see it is around 7% growth. So double-digit means you cannot expect a significant increase like 15% to 20%. Yes, it will be in the range of 10% to 12% minimum. Manufacturing 30%, if you see, if hopefully, our LCA program and HTT-40, if we are able to deliver, manufacturing sales will play a dominant role.

Saif Sohrab · ICICI Prudential AMC

On Tejas Mark II, when do you expect the ground testing and prototype rollout? And on UCAVs, any update?

The assembly of these structures is going on for Tejas Mark II. So we are expecting in the last quarter of this year, for the rollout of Mark II. These are all joint designs between us and ADA. So we are expecting that by March, we should be able to roll out Mark II. We are doing a rotary UAV, which is -- the prototype is already built, and we are doing the ground test now. The CATS Warrior, which we did the ground run last year, it was successful. Now we are actually building the actual UAV. That we are expecting next year, not this year.

Saif Sohrab · ICICI Prudential AMC

In our guidance, how many Mark-1A have we considered?

Actually, what is happening now, this time, we have received 6 engines. So GE is committing another 20 engines -- 15 to 20, he is telling, but not the exact number. So we are expecting around 20.

Mohit Pandey · Citigroup

On ROH revenue — the growth seems to have come off compared to what we used to guide earlier. Any colour there?

Spares sales have actually come down by around INR500 crores to INR600 crores in the current financial year compared to the last financial year. But the repair and overhaul are almost at the same level because we have not added any new platform to our repair and overhaul activities. When the LCA will come up for repair and overhaul, maybe next year, and more of LCH, if it comes, then only it will be a significant increase in repair and overhaul we may have in the next financial year.

Mohit Pandey · Citigroup

Margins — 30%, 31% — with manufacturing share increasing and supply chain disruptions, how do you plan to deliver similar margins? Is there a cost pass-through process with regard to commodities?

For '26-'27, already we have the inventory. The inventories are there, and only some components may come, for which the purchase order has already been placed 1 year back or 2 years back. So there will not be any cost increase as such for '26-'27. As the purchase orders have been placed for 83 LCA long back, our inventories have been purchased. And as far as the ERV exchange rate, this is already mitigated. It is factored into the contract. So we are not affected. So our cost of production will not increase. ERV clause is there in each and every contract, and even in the repair and overhaul contracts. Other input costs mean only the material. Labor escalation is already factored. And material escalation is already factored into the contract itself.

Kavish Parekh · 360 ONE Capital

On the 12 Sukhoi-30 aircraft order, what is the expected execution timeline? When are deliveries likely to commence?

The Su-30 MKI, as per contract, starts from '27, '28, that is, in that year, there is only 1 aircraft due as per contract. And next year, we are going to complete all 11 In 28-29.

Kavish Parekh · 360 ONE Capital

On Sukhoi-30 upgrade program, what is the likely timeline for contract signing and execution? Margin profile?

It's the Su-30 upgradation design program now. The design program will go on up to maybe 5 to 6 years. We are expecting the CCS approval for the current financial year. So the design will take probably 5 to 6 years. Then only the upgrade program will start, production will start after 5 to 6 years.

Sumit Kishore · Axis Capital

How many LCAs are you factoring into the 10% to 12% revenue growth in second half? And what percentage of your inventory unbilled revenue is for the LCA program now?

Since we are getting around 20 engines, we are planning to deliver around 20 LCA. I'm not telling that it may happen in this quarter, next quarter, or the last quarter. But this financial year, we are planning to deliver this many aircraft. Inventory for LCA is around INR7,500 crores. For non-delivery of LCA, our inventory is around INR8,100 crores, if you include raw material and WIP.

Shirom Kapur · Jefferies

Quantify your export and development orders and sales for FY '26?

The export order right now, the export order book is around INR400 crores, and the development order book is around INR3,000 crores.

Harshit Patel · Equirus Securities

Have we completed all legacy ALH contracts including army contract for 24 members? And execution schedule for the 143 ALH?

The deliveries of ALH, we have no issues. We have delivered everything as per contract. As far as the new one is concerned, now we have augmented the facility in the current helicopter division. And outside, private vendors are also helping us in making the structure. So we are confident that ALH, because it is our program in a sense, designed by HAL, we will be ahead of schedule.

Harshit Patel · Equirus Securities

HTT-40 program — any supply chain issues with Honeywell engines? Execution strategy? Did you say FY27 or FY28 for delivery? How many units in FY27?

FY'27. The supply chain of Honeywell engines, it was there a few months back. Then we have continuous review, and now it is stabilized. So the engines will start going to come from next month. And we are planning around 20 plus this year to deliver. And every year, it continues because now we have 2 lines, one in Bangalore, another one in Nashik. So we should be able to ramp up faster and deliver.

Harshit Patel · Equirus Securities

Status of Uttam Radar integration? Earlier plan was to start from the 41st unit. Is that still intact?

Because this is controlled by the DRDO. So we are only a production agency. Once they give the production clearance, we will go to the DCPP partner and we'll buy it. So as of now, it is not coming in the 83 program. So in the 97 program, we are planning to integrate this.

Sanjeev Zarbade · Antique Stock Broking

If growth of manufacturing revenue is faster than ROH, could this impact 30%-31% EBITDA margin?

Current year, if you see our revenue growth is around 7%. As we grow, manufacturing sales will grow. Then definitely, the composition, what is there right now, is around 28% to 30% to 70%. So it will be in the range of 50% to 50%. There is no reduction in the repair and overhaul sales. Repair and overhaul sales will also grow. We don't see any stress on the manufacturing sales also in terms of profitability. And that 30% will be maintained.

Amit Anwani · PL Capital

GE engine supply schedule — what is the understanding now? Targeting 2 engines per month?

June, we are expecting 1 engine now. Then afterwards, it is going to August. From August, they have committed 2. And then by end of this year around 15 to 20. So that's why I told 20 LCA we will deliver this year.

Amit Anwani · PL Capital

Engine delivery to final IAF delivery — how much time?

Around 30 to 45 days.

Amit Anwani · PL Capital

What is the core reason for GE's supply variability? AL-31FP and RD-33 engine targets?

The supply chain issue is global. There were some casting issues that they had. Now they have found an alternative. Our target is around 32, 35 engines per annum of AL-31 FP. And RD-33, only 15 engines are left, and those 15 will be delivered in the current financial year, '26, '27. ALH, Army, the 10 numbers are left out, and then we are going to deliver those 10. There are the other 5, and Pawan Hans is 8.

Prepared remarks (3 blocks)
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. This interaction is particularly significant for me personally, as I assumed charge as Chairman and Managing Director of HAL on 1st May 2026. Production capacity of 8 LCA Mark-1A per annum established with the inauguration of the third production line at HAL Nashik on 17th October 2025. Indigenously designed and developed ALH Dhruv NG took maiden flight on 30th December 2025. Maiden sortie of the first series production Hindustan Turbo Trainer, HTT-40 aircraft, successfully completed on 24th October 2025. HAL received the Certification of Indigenous Manufacturing of Shakti Civil Engine from the DGCA on 30 December 2025. HAL signed the SSLV Technology Transfer Agreement with ISRO, IN-SPACe, and NSIL on 10th September 2025. HAL and United Aircraft Corporation, Russia, signed an MoU for SJ-100 civil commuter aircraft on 27 October 2025. HAL has signed an agreement with Safran Aircraft Engines in June 2025 for the industrialization and production of rotating parts of LEAP engines.
We have achieved revenue from operations of INR<strong>33,050 crore</strong>s for financial year 2025-'26 in comparison to INR30,981 crores in financial year 2024-'25, an increase of 7%, despite global aerospace supply chain disruptions. Our manufacturing revenue was INR9,227 crores, and ROH revenue was at INR20,524 crores. The manufacturing revenue increased from INR7,957 crores to INR9,227 crores. Export revenue of INR501 crores as against INR400 crores of the previous year. EBITDA grew by 11% to reach INR13,472 crores as against INR12,168 crores of the previous year. Operating EBITDA was at 30% of the revenue. PBT of INR12,112 crores as against INR10,820 crores in the previous year, an increase of 12%. Capex INR2,386 crores and R&D expenditure INR2,794 crores (around 8.4% of revenue). Plan to invest around INR12,000 crores by 2030 across LCA Mark-II, GE 414 engines, IMRH engines, SSLV manufacturing, indigenization of aero engine projects.
Order book improved to INR<strong>2,54,538 crore</strong>s against previous year INR1,89,302 crores as on 1st April 2025. Fresh orders received INR97,028 crores, including manufacturing INR69,668 crores and ROH INR26,539 crores. Major new orders: 97 LCA Mark-1A to IAF, 6 ALH Mark III MR to ICG, 8 Do-228 to ICG, 10 ALH Dhruv NG to Pawan Hans, 2 Hindustan-228 to Guyana. Order pipeline includes 143 ALH for the Army, IAF Su-30 upgrade, upgrade of 40 Do-228. In total, we expect to receive orders of INR90,000 crores, including the ROH orders, during the next 2 years.
Watch next