12-quarter-high USG (7%) delivered.
- Volume growth drivers elasticity — answer hedged.
- Portfolio rationalization reporting changes — answer hedged.
- Personal care gst benefits — answer hedged.
What's the tonnage growth between UVG? Are you finding early signs to have a forecast of 2H better than 1H and FY'27 better than FY'26 based on internal green shoots? Are there any early signs of elasticity gains in the discretionary part of the stable portfolio?
We have outlined two real key areas of the reason why we believe we are beginning to see the gradual improvement in our performance. The first is the macro conditions including lower inflation, more liquidity in the market, overall consumer sentiment change, along with all the reforms. Coupled with that are the actions we have taken in fewer bigger bets, sharper segmentation, doubling down in channel capabilities, and continued portfolio transformation. Our UVG for the quarter is the highest UVG that we have recorded in the last 12 quarters.
On overall strategy, you called out fewer bigger bets multiple times. Any more portfolio rationalization under consideration? What was the thought process when HUL had acquired Nutritionalab three years back and within three years what changed? On the new direct reporting of category heads, has any other big global market of Unilever seen similar change?
On the portfolio, the theme of sharpening portfolio and rotating it continuously will continue because this is a dynamic world. We are being swifter in our actions and more decisive. OZiva has done exceedingly well so we decided to double-down on OZiva. The Nutritionalab is a minority stake and therefore we decided to divest, with nothing to do with the performance of the WBN as such. We will continue to rotate the portfolio and be decisive and swift in our actions.
On Personal Care, do you expect volume growth has potential to accelerate sequentially as some of the GST rate cut benefits start to flow fully from Q4 onwards? Are the re-stocking benefits still to show up or were they already there in November and December?
Within Skin Cleansing, our premium brands have been growing very well, double-digits including Dove and Pears. The GST-led benefits will pan out over a long period of time, not just on Skin Cleansing but across the GST portfolio because overall it leads to an increase in consumer confidence. The December quarter, you can assume that all the benefits have come in. Because it came in November itself, it can be treated as a normal quarter of growth as a platform for future.
Just wanted to understand the new launch in the dets business on 99 on easy wash pack. What is the grammage here? Is there any price change in this pack?
The focus of this pack is really to bring the put down price close to the put down price of mass powders with a focus on a monthly consumption pack. It's a new price point at which we have launched an easy wash pack, and that's really the focus of this particular packaging.
While December quarter is a normalized quarter post the October and the November-December de-stocking-re-stocking impact, should one consider in the near term similar growth on volume front to continue or there can be a case for volumes to go down because there is just about a re-stocking that has happened?
We have guided clearly that we see second half to be better than the first half of '26, and we believe '27 will be better than '26, and we'll maintain this guidance.
Can you help us break down the algo for the double-digit earnings growth highlighted earlier? Because low single-digit pricing growth, volumes probably where we are and you are holding on to your margin guidance, how can one triangulate to the double-digit earnings growth guidance?
Growth will continue to remain our Number 1 priority and we will continue to invest whatever it takes to ensure that volume-led growth happens and competitive growth happens. As far as our margins are concerned, we will stay within the current guidance. Overall, our guidance for the top line is for fiscal year '27 to be better than fiscal year '26. As of now, this is what our guided framework is.
On Skin Care, when I look at your growth on Skin Care and Cosmetics relative to a platform such as Nykaa, the growth is meaningfully lower than the brand and even some of the private brands they have. Is this a function of mass Skin Care growing slower or is there anything more in context?
It's very important when you look at our Skin Care business to look at the scale and size and the depth of the portfolio that we have spans across the country. We are the largest Skin Care business in the country, spanning from right at the top of the pyramid right up to the mass rural consumer. We have a portfolio that spans from the D2C brands like Minimalist at the top, building Simple, Lakme, Ponds, Vaseline in the middle, and Glow & Lovely at the bottom. We will keep democratizing new formats and benefits across the length and breadth of India.
Just help me understand what is really hindering growth? Because we are at 3%, 4% volume growth, 5% value growth, per capita consumption and incomes in India are much lower compared to developed countries. What really is the missing piece for us to be bullish on FMCG consumption in India? Would it be a stretch to expect double-digit top line growth from HUL?
We have delivered our highest ever UVG in the last 12 quarters with 6% revenue growth. We are seeing macros overall in the country improving and a company that is as deep and wide as we are in the country, that plays a key role. We continue to share the outlook that second half of '26 will be better than first half of '26 and FY'27 will be better than FY'26.
On margins, why are we still fairly focused on that 12.5 to 13.5 implied range. This quarter we've done 13.7 if you adjust the Labor Code, close to 14. Also you have modest inflation. Historically HUL has done well from a profitability standpoint in modest inflation. What am I missing? Is it that reinvestment rates will sharply go up as we focus on growth?
As we have outlined already that top line growth will remain our number 1 priority. Within that, our strategy is volume-led growth. So that's why we have prioritized growth over margins, and therefore margins we have said will remain within the guided range. Margin is best to look at EBITDA margin, not to look at our margin which is a PAT margin because the rest is a derived number. Our EBITDA margin is 23.3%, which is 24% after charging the Labor Code impact of Rs. 113 crores.
What has to change for HUL to deliver 10% revenue growth? Is it primarily a macro constraint or a portfolio issue? Are street expectations of double-digit earnings growth misplaced? If you are already at 6% revenue growth in second half and expecting better FY'27 with low-single digit pricing, then double digit earnings growth should not be very difficult, right?
When you look at the macros, they have in the recent times shown improving trends. Our strategic actions which we are taking have also started to play out. This quarter we have delivered a revenue growth of 6% and the highest UVG across the last 12 quarters. Based on all of that, we are guiding right now is that fiscal year'27 to be better than fiscal year'26 on the top line and the margins to stay in the guided range. Beyond this, we will not be able to guide any number.
On Beauty & Wellbeing, fair to assume that Beauty & Wellbeing will be the segment that will drive the highest growth among the 4? Within Beauty & Wellbeing, how do you look at the portfolio ex of OZiva, Minimalist and Hair Care which was the better performing portfolio?
All 4 of our categories drive growth for us. For Beauty & Wellbeing, our total business is critical across the pyramid given the size and scale of our leadership in both Hair Care and Skin Care. We keep moving our portfolio towards high-growth spaces. For example, we entered sunscreens with Lakme, light moisturizers with Ponds and Vaseline, and in Hair Care masks with Dove and serums. So our existing brands also extend into higher-growth spaces.
Would it entail getting higher growth if you cut down at the margins by about 2%? Or is it right to understand Unilever is actually doing whatever investments are required and given the size, scale and the categories where we are, the growth outcomes are good outcomes?
Our strategy is that growth is number 1 priority. The growth will need to be volume-led and that's the entire plank of the strategy. We operate at a huge scale, so as you operate on volume, there are scale efficiencies and operating leverages that kick in across the spend line. This gives us the confidence that while ensuring that we are fully funding our big bets and our growth, we can remain within the guided margin range. It doesn't work that way actually because eventually, you have to maintain the price-value equation and price competitiveness.
On the one India R&D initiative, in the last Analyst Day at your office, you showcased your R&D capabilities which looked quite impressive. So what were we missing that this change is now expected to fix? And will it fix more of a growth issue, premiumization or its more cost efficiency as well?
We benefit from all our global technology capability and knowledge across our categories. What we want to focus on is speed, agility and customization for India. So I would like to use 3 words that we want to further dial up: speed, agility and customization for consumers in India. The benefit will be more relevant consumer innovation for India based on all the technological platforms that we continue to enjoy and benefit from as a global corporation.
We have explicitly guided that FY'27 will be better than FY'26, but we also called out we can't decouple much from macro. What kind of macro scenario have we budgeted for now? And what kind of tolerance level that budget has for us to hold on to our guidance? If finance minister projected 10% nominal GDP growth and we are hesitant to commit to double-digit growth at EBITDA level, if that number has to come down, should we expect that will be worse off?
The macro scenario budgeted is what is happening today, which is essentially an improved consumer sentiment, consumer confidence and the overall consumption demand as you see increasing both across rural and urban. So that's what is being plotted, not any different from current momentum. There is a way that we guide our numbers, and we will stick with FY'27 to be better than FY'26. We have factored in the risk-adjusted scenarios on both macros and our internal actions.
There's a mention about category partnership with the q-commerce players and all three are mentioned. Anything more you could tell us quantitatively and qualitatively? What does this partnership mean for Unilever and for those players?
We are in an omni-channel environment in India and all our channels are critical to us. Quick commerce is now 3% of our business, growing almost 100% quarter-on-quarter, and we are stepping up investments not just in people dedicated to the channel, but also in bespoke supply chain, tech and digital marketing capability. Our partnerships are really working with these partners because the data system exchange that we can now do enables stronger forecasting and deeper platform exchange that ensures we drive up our availability. We have seen our 1,400 basis points of improvement in availability over this period.
On Beauty & Wellbeing, Hair Care is double-digit growth largely volume-led, while Skin Care and Colour Cosmetics ex of winter portfolio has been weak. Is there any takeaway from Hair Care for Skin Care? Is D2C competition much higher in Skin Care?
We are distinct leaders in Hair Care with very strong positions that straddle the pyramid right from Nexxus at the top, Dove, TRESemmé to Clinic Plus at the bottom, and our playbook of premiumisation continues to play out for us. In Skin Care, we have had a story of two halves with very strong double-digit performance in winter portfolio, while summer portfolio has been relatively challenged including talcum powder, sunscreens or mass skin brightening. We now have a portfolio in Skin Care which spans from Minimalist and Simple at the top, Vaseline, Lakme, Ponds in the middle, to Glow and Lovely at the bottom, and our opportunity will be to democratize this at scale.
You mentioned in your outlook you expect a better FY'27 compared to FY'26. Should we expect this to be a consistent improvement trend starting from December quarter? Or there could be ups and downs? We are not sure if there was any restocking benefit in this quarter, also the base was quite low.
The way you should think about the guidance we have given is second half of '26 will be better than the first half '26 and '27 will be better than '26. When it comes to this quarter, October we continue to see some transitionary effects of GST and we have seen the restocking into November. But the way to look at it overall in this quarter, we should see this quarter as normal as regards to GST.
On Home Care, USG has been below UVG for an extended period. Is that pricing being negative for an extended period of time, largely that, or is it a lot to do with also competition? Is the shift towards liquids a headwind or a tailwind for pricing given that it's a more premium format?
We are at the highest ever recorded market share of Home Care this quarter. The pricing has been benign linked to commodities and competitive pressure. We are seeing some non-feedstock commodities now inflate, and we have already begun to price in Home Care, albeit low-single digit pricing. Liquid is at a price premium to powder; we are the leaders of liquids with 7% of the market in India being liquid - huge headroom to grow. We will begin to anniversarize going into next quarter, competitive pricing decisions we had to take, and that augurs well for pricing growth.
On pricing at aggregate portfolio, when you look at the rest of your portfolio, how do we expect pricing to play out in the coming quarters given some of the other commodities are relatively benign?
If you look at commodities, you have a divergent trend. Crude sequentially is up, non-feedstock on crude has gone up. We see Palm stable to inflationary, tea which was deflationary is also showing signs of plainers moving up. While we don't see hyperinflation, we do see a stable to an inflationary kind of stuff coming back. While I would not guide for a quarter, but overall for the year, we do expect a low single-digit price increases over the year.
On Nutrition, Horlicks saw high-single digit growth. How sustainable is this and what is the confidence on growth revival here? What are some of the key interventions which seem to be working for you?
This is our third consecutive quarter of positive UVG on our Lifestyle Nutrition business. Overall Boost which is 20% of our business has been growing strong double-digit. Horlicks has done very well this quarter; we have corrected our price pack architecture and relaunched Horlicks in two states with Horlicks Superfoods featuring NutriMax technology. We have also launched a Horlicks no-added-sugar variant and Horlicks in ready-to-drink format.
Post the divestment of the ice cream business, what can be considered as the margin guidance range? It used to be 22% to 23%. Should one expect it to inch up further or are you holding on to that range still?
Our guided range has been 22% to 23%. We also outlined that you will see a benefit of the ice cream demerger to the extent of 50 basis points. So basically, we remain with this guidance that we have provided. The implied number is 22.5% to 23.5%.
On Home Care, between liquids and powders are we consistently seeing liquids for the same brand being priced the same or lower if you were to calculate it on a price per use basis?
No, the price per use of liquids on average is higher than the price per use of powders. It also depends on the consumption. The consumption at the minute you move into machine wash is totally different from a bucket wash. The minute you move to liquids is totally different from powders. The price per use of liquids is higher than the price per use of powders.
I just wanted to check on the pipeline, both at distributor level and retailer level. As of December end, would it have normalized in the sense that would it be at the same level as it was in August end? And given October was a bad month but you still did 5% organic growth ex Minimalist, should we expect that higher rate of November-December run rate to continue?
Yes, we can safely assume that the pipeline has normalized. The right way will be to take our overall December quarter numbers as the normalized numbers for the foundation to be taken as a platform moving forward.
On the ad spend, if you look at the standalone entity, you have seen a little bit of a dip on the absolute ad spend number. Is there something this quarter that we have spent slightly lower which will adjust going forward? My minimum point is the A&P increase is all driven by the D2C portfolio. On Home Care margins at peak, how does that defer between liquids and detergent market share?
We should look at all our numbers on a consolidated basis. As far as quarter A&P is concerned, that looks to be 30 basis points lower, although on an absolute basis it's not gone down. The best way to look at A&P is to look at a longer period horizon. When you look at the 9-month of this fiscal, our A&P to percentage revenue is 10%, same as previous year. On absolute basis our A&P has gone up by Rs. 200 crores approximately.
On quick commerce, would it be fair to assume that ex of some parts of foods which could be classified as indulgence, most of QC for us is sort of just a demand shift. How to think of the profitability of this segment versus our traditional general trade profitability?
As far as quick commerce demand is concerned, it's a combination of the 2. There will be a part which actually move from the current demand and also parts which generate demand because our portfolio in quick commerce is different. It is more margin-accretive, more premiumized portfolio. From a Gross Margin perspective, q-com generates better margin than the modern trade which generates better margins than the general trade, which is a function of the portfolio that we play.