Throughline · holding view Deep analysis Q4 FY25
INFY Infosys Ltd · IT services Q4 FY25 · concall
Pattern: risk project reassessments ramp

Refused to commit on q1 weakness growth trajectory.

1 deflection · 3 weak · 12 clean pushback across 4 of 16 Q&A turns

Focused evidence 4 of 16

Kumar Rakesh · BNP Paribasweak

On a longer-term basis, given low-ROI deals were reassessed and ramped down in past years - do you see a similar reassessment risk if macro uncertainty persists?

Changes in the economic environment have happened very recently and over a short span. The discussions we have had on deals signed in recent quarters - we have not seen a change in trajectory. What we saw in the past was more discretionary spend where clients put a stop or there were ramp-downs. If the environment deteriorates significantly from where we are, yes, clients will relook at some of that. At this point in time we are not seeing any of that happening significantly for us.

Keith Bachman · BMO Capitalweak

How is AI changing the nature of pricing discussions/structure? Is the deflationary nature of AI impacting performance-based contracts? And where in your portfolio (BPO/deployment/ADM) is AI being used most?

On AI and pricing, there are areas where we have discussions with clients that have been building through the year. For example, in large customer service programs, benefits to clients of 20% to 40% are seen. Sometimes the client view is larger than what we see in realization, so we have a choice to make. Many times they are aligned and AI is one component along with automation, lean and consolidation, all of which give cumulative benefits. AI also gives us new opportunities - new projects in credit risk or AI platform for a telco. As a cumulative, while all this was going on we saw 4.2% revenue growth last year. On sharing efficiency gains in customer service - we do not have a large voice business; we typically bid on technology and operations combinations. Sharing depends on the client situation - sometimes through consolidation activity where customer service is not within our portfolio.

Vibhor Singhal · Nuvama Institutional Equitiesdeflection

Could the growth trajectory be more skewed to Q2/Q3 vs the usual H1-heavy pattern given peers calling out Q1 weakness? Where do we stand on Project Maximus benefits?

From a regular seasonality perspective, I do not see a change - working days, calendar days impact would be similar; furloughs will remain. Uncertainty is the only unknown factor. We have given a 3-point guidance: at top end, regular H1/H2 seasonality; at bottom end, unpredictable. We don't give quarterly guidance. On Maximus: despite multiple headwinds, we improved margins by 50 basis points. Multiple tracks are still underway - value-based selling still delivering value, lean automation still creating value. There is still opportunity to improve margins from where we are.

Manik Taneja · Axis Capitalweak

On the cost of pass-through revenues - this has steadily increased from ~2% to ~8% of revenues in FY25. What is changing on the ground for FY'26 to be lower? How does this play out over the next 3-4 years?

These are third-party costs typically embedded in multiyear large transformation deals. Based on deals signed and in pipeline, we expect FY'26 third-party costs to be lower than FY'25. Eventually, once the large and many of the mega deals signed in the past finish their transformation phase, we will have significant reductions as well.

Other Q&A (12)
Ankur Rudra · JPMorgan

On Q4 linearity - did the softness/miss to guidance play out only in March or over the course of the entire quarter? And does the FY26 guidance imply normal seasonality?

Two-third of the decline was on account of third-party costs and the revenue related to that. Some of the deals that we had in the pipeline had slipped, so the decline was higher than what we anticipated. The balance was the usual Q4 seasonality and the volume decline. Generally these deals happen towards the end of the quarter and that is where it slipped from. On guidance: we see heightened uncertainty in the environment which is why we gave a 3-point guidance band. Depending on which end of the guidance you are looking at, the seasonality and uncertainty will change, but outside of that we are expecting normal seasonality.

Ankur Rudra · JPMorgan

On AI-led transformation - are you infusing AI into existing projects in a way that leads to revenue deflation you have to overcome?

AI is part of all the discussions on the new deals. We are using AI in many of our existing programs. But we are seeing benefits which relate to how we can now use AI with clients in different areas. As a composite, what we saw last year, 4.2% growth, we feel pretty confident that we will see benefits from it even as we see some productivity improvement. So we do not see anything in terms of the revenue on that.

Kumar Rakesh · BNP Paribas

On third-party slipping at quarter-end - how was the volume trend during the quarter, and does it imply third-party contribution will be higher in FY'26?

We had a softer start at the beginning of the quarter from volumes perspective, but did see some recovery in volumes - softer in January which is generally a soft month, then volumes start stacking up. On third-party, we are expecting FY'26 to be lower than FY'25, considering deals signed and the deals in the pipeline. So that is baked in.

Abhishek Pathak · Motilal Oswal

What are the underlying assumptions at the top end of the guidance? Any risk of deferrals or ramp-downs in the next quarter? And wage hike impact for Q1?

We always run multiple models leading to top, bottom or middle of guidance. The reason for the 3-point band is uncertainty - at the lower end we baked in further deterioration; at the top end, steady to marginally improving environment. On ramp-downs, we have not really seen any major ramp-downs at this point or major closures of deals; clients are cautious and decision-making is delayed in pockets, but that has been baked into the lower end. On wages: most employees got hikes in January; middle to senior employees will get hike effective 1st of April. The impact has been baked into the guidance range.

Gaurav Rateria · Morgan Stanley

On small deal environment - have you seen any change vs a few months back? And on FY26 margins, since growth midpoint slowed vs FY25, how do you offset operating deleverage?

On small deals, at the lower end of guidance we have assumed deteriorating environment, at the upper end steady to marginally improving environment. On margins, last year we had a large comp impact, full-year impact of November comp plus additional January comp; impact from large deals signed previously, 30bps from acquisition. Despite all those headwinds, we improved margins by 50 basis points and rewarded employees better through higher variable pay. We are confident there are opportunities to double down and improve margins. The endeavour for FY'26 is to improve margins from where we are.

Jonathan Lee · Guggenheim Partners

What is the inorganic contribution contemplated in FY'26 outlook? And how would you characterize the pricing environment?

The guidance does not include the acquisition announced today. The Board has approved the acquisition. We still have to go through closing formalities that will take a few weeks to maybe a month. On pricing, we continue seeing stable pricing through the quarter at the overall business level. Everything that has changed in the environment has been very recent, so we have not really seen any significant impact on pricing. One key pillar of cost optimization/margin improvement is value-based selling - including change requests for scope creeps, rotating long-tenured employees across projects to get better pricing, differentiated pricing models for different services. All of that helped last year and that endeavour continues this year.

Surendra Goyal · Citigroup

On improvement in discretionary spending called out through FY'25 - what did you see in March and April so far?

March month has been usual. I do not think we have seen a significant change either ways in the environment in terms of volumes. We did have positive volumes in March.

Abhishek Kumar · JM Financial

On third-party items that spilled over - is that a deferral that will come back in Q1, or is it lost? How does Q1 visibility compare to last year? And why was margin uplift only ~30bps despite two-third of decline being from third-party?

Two-third of our decline was because of lower third-party costs and revenue; some of those deals slipped. It is uncertain at this point if and when these deals come back. Read in conjunction with the fact that FY'26 third-party cost and revenue are going to be lower than FY'25. On Q1 visibility - both years had unique uncertainty factors (last year: interest rates, geopolitical, elections; this year: tariffs). Hard to put in quantifiable terms whether similar or not. Our philosophy is to reduce asymmetry of information - we are guiding what we see today. On margins, the margin uplift on the third-party reduction is around 20 basis points; the reduction in third-party cost is $100 mn. We make some margins on those deals, so the benefit is only the delta margin of the company versus those third-party deals.

Sandeep Shah · Equirus Securities

In an uncertain macro, will clients double down on outsourcing/cost-takeout deals? Is 1H>2H seasonality still expected in FY'26? And the 40bps M&A headwind - is it one-off, and what is the contribution from acquisitions if closed in Q1?

Changes in the economic environment are recent and in a short period. Learning from the past, this sort of environment will provide more cost takeout opportunities, consolidation, automation, lean. We have pivoted our sales activities into focusing on more proactive pitches to clients in that area. Our portfolio has the ability for both AI/cloud and cost takeout - now we are emphasizing much more on cost takeout. On seasonality (Jayesh): typically 2H is softer due to furloughs and lower working/calendar days; that part will remain. The 40bps acquisition charge was one-off - we reassessed customer intangibles given softness in German/European auto markets. If acquisitions close in Q1, the benefit would be 40-to-50 basis points for the full year, not baked in the guidance.

Nitin Padmanabhan · Investec India

How is the Mitsubishi JV different from the one TCS signed earlier? And how does the order backlog/large-deal ramp-up entering FY26 compare to entering FY25?

This is not a new JV. We have inducted Mitsubishi into the existing JV and diluted our share by 2%. It is an endeavour to build a long-term relationship with a large giant in Japan. On order backlog: if you look at the quantum of deals being ramped up in Q4 of the previous year vs now, you will see some difference. But many of those deals were larger and longer duration; mega deals are generally much longer tenure. Most deals signed in FY'24 ramped up in Q4 of FY'24, and we saw the benefit in FY'25; they are pretty much at steady state at this point.

Ashwin Mehta · Ambit Capital

In cost of sales, we have a Rs. 145 crores negative number for consultancy and professional charges - what is driving this? And why is the post-sale customer support reversal so high?

This is an insurance claim received with respect to the cyber event we had last year - $20 mn benefit. Did not call it out in margin walk because there were other negatives like utilization that offset it. On post-sale customer support, there is seasonality - typically reduction in Q4 as many projects come to an end with the financial year-end. Plus Project Maximus drives effort optimization, change request, tighter project control - reflects in lesser warranty/SLAs and lesser cost on PSCS.

Girish Pai · BOB Capital Markets

Are there any silver linings to the current macro/tariff situation - any client conversations on supply chain solutions? And do clients have a separate budget for Gen AI/AI or is it from savings on normal projects?

Our portfolio has both growth (AI, cloud, digital) and cost/efficiency solutions (automation, productivity from AI, lean). We are making sure those are getting communicated and discussed with clients in this short timeframe. On supply chain - we have a consulting business that can give insights, plus supply chain tech solutions if clients are rerouting or optimizing supply chains. On AI budgets - last year overall tech budgets were there. In some cases, clients fund AI transformation from large opportunities on consolidation/cost efficiency. AI was initially distributed within companies, but my guess is it will become more and more one budget for the company from which there will be spend on services for AI.

Prepared remarks (4 blocks)
Good evening and good morning to all of you. Thank you for joining us on this call. We had an excellent financial year 2025. Our revenues grew at <strong>4.2%</strong> in constant currency terms. Our operating margin was 21.1%. We generated $4.1 bn in free cash flow and we had $11.6 bn in large deals. In Q4, we had year-on-year growth of 4.8% and operating margin of 21%. We are seeing growing demand from clients to partner with them on AI, they are moving from a use case-based approach to an AI-led transformational approach with AI agents playing a critical role. We are working on AI projects by bringing Infosys Topaz, a generative and edge AI-powered services and solutions for their benefit. Our AI work spans a wide spectrum of priority areas like process improvement, engineering, customer service, cybersecurity and employee productivity. We are helping a large U.S. financial services company navigate the AI transformation to deliver hyperpersonalized conversational AI-powered customer experience with accuracy of over 80%. We are working with a Europe-based company to create master solution, driving multiple AI-first transformation projects, i.e.
automating 70% of their process landscape. We continue with our strategic expansion with acquisitions, one in energy consulting space in the U.S., one in cybersecurity in Australia and with a new strategic partner joining our joint venture in Japan. All of these are areas of interest and strategic focus for the company. We have a set of capabilities that support our clients in their growth areas related to AI, cloud and digital and in their efficiency areas related to automation, cost reduction, lean and consolidation. Based on what we are seeing in the environment today and building on large deal wins in the past quarters, our guidance for growth for financial year '26 is 0% to 3% in constant currency terms. The environment is uncertain and we will execute our plans with agility, while keeping a close watch on events as they unfold. Our margin guidance for financial year 2026 is 20% to 22%.
We entered financial year '25 with significant uncertainties relating to interest rates, elections in large geos and geopolitical situations. Over the course of the year, reduction in uncertainties, our strong market position, reflecting in robust deal wins and improvement in discretionary spend in financial services led to better growth than our initial projections. We closed the year with revenues at <strong>$19.3 bn</strong>, a growth of 4.2% in constant currency terms and 3.9% in reported terms. Acquisitions contributed 80 basis points to the growth in financial year '25. Financial Services, EURS and Manufacturing grew above company average for the year. Operating margins for the financial year improved 50 basis points over FY'24 to 21.1% after absorbing multiple headwinds. Sequentially, revenue declined by 3.5% in constant currency terms due to reduction in third-party costs and seasonal weakness. Approximately, two-third of the sequential revenue drop was due to reduction in third party with the decline being higher than our expectation. Balance one-third drop was due to volume decline and lower calendar and working day driven by Q4 seasonality. Revenue increased by 4.8% on a year-on-year basis in constant currency terms in Q4. Europe grew 3x of the company rate at 15% in constant currency terms driven by our focused approach of client mining, ramp-up of large deals and acquisitions. Europe now accounts for 30% of our revenues. Financial Services and Manufacturing grew double digit year-on-year at 12.6% and 14%, respectively in constant currency terms. In Rupee terms, revenue growth for FY'25 was 6.1%. We closed 24 large deals in Q4 with a TCV of $2.6 bn, 63% of this was net new. For the full year, we closed 96 deals with TCV of $11.6 bn and 56% net new.
DSO reduced by 5 days to 69 sequentially. Free cash flow for FY'25 was highest ever at <strong>$4.1 bn</strong>, 129% of net profit. Adjusted for tax refund, it stood at $3.5 bn, 112% of net profit. Headcount at the end of the year was 323,578, an increase of ~6,000 year-on-year. Attrition remained contained at 14.1%. Operating margin for Q4 was at 21%, a decline of 30 basis points sequentially. Headwind of 140 basis points from compensation-related costs, 40 basis points impact from acquisition, mainly on account of amortization of intangibles. Partly offset by tailwind of 80 basis points from lower post-sale customer support, 30 basis points from Maximus, 20 basis points from currency movement and 20 basis points from lower third-party costs. Utilization, excluding trainees, stands at 84.9%. On-site mix further reduced to 23.6%. We hired 15,000 freshers this year and expect to hire over 20,000 freshers in FY'26. We expect effective tax rate for financial year '26 to be in the range of 29% to 30%. The Board has proposed a final dividend of Rs. 22 for financial year '25. Including the interim dividend, the total payout for FY'25 will be Rs. 43, an increase of 13.2%. Exiting FY'25, global uncertainties relating to tariffs and impact of that on client sentiment and spend are taking center stage. We expect FY'26 growth to be 0% to 3% in constant currency terms. This excludes the acquisition that we announced today and this assumes a reduction in third-party revenues versus FY'25 based on existing deals and the new deals in pipeline that we have today. Our operating margin guidance for the year is 20% to 22%.
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