Throughline · holding view Deep analysis Q4 FY25
LUPIN Lupin Limited · Pharma Q4 FY25 · concall
Pattern: fy26 revenue growth margin

FY26 closed at 29.7% EBITDA vs Q1 24-25% guide.

5 weak · 14 clean pushback across 5 of 19 Q&A turns

Focused evidence 5 of 19

Kunal Lakhan · CLSAweak

Thanks for outlining the product pipeline for the next five years. That's quite articulate. Just to back that up, like, how do you look at say, revenue growth going forward in FY26 and possibly beyond that? If you can articulate for both India as well as US business. And on the margin side, with the share of complex generics increasing by FY30, at the same time, you spoke a lot about the cost efficiency levers that you have. How should we look at on the margin side, margins play out over the next in FY26 and beyond that as well?

The buoyancy and the top line would contribute tremendously because as Nilesh, Vinita were talking about, the pipeline is very strong. Given that mojo, we would of course expect that to contribute. And there's, of course, tremendous focus on cost itself. So as a combination of that, you would expect margins to certainly go up. This year, for example, we have Tolvaptan. And there's a host of other products that we've lined up for next several quarters. So, the margins would continuously go up. And we speak about the adjacencies, they would evolve in terms of growth and critical mass itself and start contributing profits. And if that were to be brought in, you would certainly expect the margins to creep up. This year, of course, we think it will go up by at least about percentage point as in the past. And then, it will increase in terms of the way the pipeline evolves.

Damayanti Kerai · HSBCweak

Vinita, earlier on TV interview you mentioned USD 250 million US sales is the new run rate for you. But just want to understand you continue to sell Mirabegron and then Tolvaptan has come. Then why it should not be much higher?

So hopefully it is higher. We think that you know we are going to see pressure on Albuterol, we have already started seeing it. We think Tolvaptan will be a great contributor in the first half of this fiscal year. But second half we certainly expect other competitors to come in and while our first mover advantage will be there because it is a specialty drug, it is a REMS product we will expect to give up share. So, we expect some products to go down and products like Tolvaptan and continued growth in Spiriva would offset some of the decline in other products and helps us hopefully grow over USD 250 million a quarter.

Surya Patra · Phillip Capitalweak

My first question is about the CDMO initiatives. Could you share what is your plan there and how do you position the CDMO/CRDMO business while you are having established generic business here?

I think the CDMO market is very mature in the fact that people would pick companies for the ir reputation, for their manufacturing capabilities, their compliance record and the like. I think the fact that we are a large generic company as well I don't see that as a challenge at least in none of the conversations that we have had so far. This started with a fact that we were overinvested in API and we had additional capacity which was available as well. But I think you know with some of the China rhetoric, with some of the alternatives that people have been seeking as well I think it has become a large opportunity. Once we have got numbers we will present those numbers but I don't see anything coming as a challenge at this point of time. We have to build capability though. So, optimistic but I think we will put our heads down, work for two years and then talk about good numbers.

Neha Manpuria · Bank of Americaweak

Ramesh, if I was to think about margins after FY26, obviously FY 26 we have Tolvaptan helping us and then you have the injectables. As we think about after that , Vinita mentioned Spiriva sees competition, Tolvaptan FTF goes away. Is the margin expansion entirely dependent on the adjacencies turning around given we would continue to invest in R&D?

Yeah, I do see turning around would of course be a very important part of the whole thing. At some point of time we would also perhaps look at allowing them to spin on their axis by getting a private equity player or a strategic end to kind of allow them t o grow also. Clearly, their evolution and their growth and their profitability is also important. But it is not going to be the most critical factor from our perspective, it is going to be really the core , really contributing in terms of the buoyancy on the top line and other initiatives that we have taken on.

Kunal Dhamesha · Macquarieweak

Second question on the overall impact on our P&L, let's say from next 3 to 5-year perspective because we are looking at a lot of shift towards complex generics and specialty. Margins wherever they are right now or ROCE whatever it is right now where do you see that panning out over next 3 to 5 years because it also seems that there are a lot of investments, R&D may be inching up for that future pipeline. So, how should we think beyond FY26 just looking at this shift in the business mix that we have put out today?

So, the team has worked hard really to improve margins year after year, and that's a consistent effort going forward. As we look at the situation right now based on the pipeline that we bring to market, certainly R&D spend on complex generic is up but also the new product launches of complex generics are up. And increasing over the next 5 years. So, we should be able to afford the investment and still grow our margins.

Other Q&A (14)
Kunal Lakhan · CLSA

My second question is on, one of the growth levers that you spoke about was, focus on the novel drugs. With the MFN policy now, how should we look at that strategy going ahead? The second part is on the tariff side. We do have two facilities in the US, and you also in your opening remarks alluded towards, if there were enough incentives, you would look at setting up more facilities. What kind of flexibility first of all, the 2 facilities offer us in terms of like managing supply chain on some of our key products and if you can talk a little bit about, how are we looking at setting up any new facilities if possible?

I think the MFN would definitely impact the brand side of the business much more than the generic and the focus under IRA has been on the highest value drugs. So, it is really the highest value drugs that will likely get impacted. I think that at the end of the day the value of the brand has an impact on the opportunity for generic. So, obviously we track it very carefully. We don't see a direct impact on our brand products which are relatively speaking small in the scheme of things. I also think that the MFN order would be challenged like it was in the last time Trump was in the office. As far as tariffs go and our flexibility what we are willing to do in the US , my first hope is that the bilateral trade negotiation is successful. Having said that given the flexibility that we have with Coral Springs as well as Somerset, if there is a need to manufacture essential drugs in the US , we will explore it. We are actively exploring that with the National Security Council as part of the White House right now. The government has identified 9 drugs that they believe that are essential and we go into the dialogue back and forth with them to determine how we can build the partnership between India and the US to give them the confidence that they will have reliability of supply.

Krishnendu Saha · Quantum

The House of Representatives of US is trying to cut the cost of Medicaid by USD 880 billion dollars to fund the gap in tax. So, just wondering how could it affect the Indian hemisphere if it does get through?

I think a big part of CMS spending is on branded drugs, so I think the first impact you would see is on branded drugs. And that's what they are trying to do with this MFN clause, to negotiate pricing on brand drugs at a level similar to Europe. I don't expect it to get to generic drugs very quickly because , generic drugs are already a pretty low spend. We have emphasized to the government as part of the Section 232 investigation in the commerce department that there's a lot of inefficiency in the supply chain. When you look at the generic side of the industry there is only a small percentage of the value that comes to the manufacturer, there's a big part that goes into the GPOs and PBMs and that's where they need to focus to be able to gain efficiency. So, we think that the PBMs are going to be challenged quite a bit. And I see limited impact on generics.

Krishnendu Saha · Quantum

On the India piece, how do you see insulin acquisition of the Lily drug playing up with Semaglutide when it goes off-patent in India? Comments on that, how do you think you are going to play that?

So as far as the Lily acquisition is concerned our objective was to acquire Huminsulin so we can penetrate into Tier-2 Tier-3 markets also and we can capture that market of insulin there. Now, Novo going out as far as insulin market is concerned particularly cartridges, we expect that we will be able to garner that market share also which will be vacated by them. At present our Huminsulin market share is 18%. We expect with this space becoming available we will be able to garner another 6 -7% market share as far as Huminsulin is concerned. Semaglutide going off -patent as Vinita also mentioned in March 2026, we are developing in-house also Semaglutide and we have partnered with other partners also so we are very much ready once it goes LOE. And we expect that this market is going to go up because once the prices come down the usage is going to go up.

Krishnendu Saha · Quantum

Last one on Mirabegron where do we stand, what is our stand on that right now?

We continue to sell the product - no change. And we have the trial in February, and believe that we have plenty of defences that, you know we have a good chance to fight at that point in time. So, we will find out in February.

Damayanti Kerai · HSBC

Does it look that your first half will be much bigger than the second half?

So, for the company it looks like both first half second half would be great. For the US, first half certainly has a lot more of Tolvaptan than the second half does. But in the second half we have injectables coming in, in particular the three I mentioned , Glucagon, Liraglutide and Risperidone all come into the tail end of the first half so really have a strong contribution in the second half. We certainly have the US more front loaded in the year.

Damayanti Kerai · HSBC

Second question is on injectable launches which you just mentioned. So, in terms of your application what is the current visibility? Are you confident about timely launches?

So we think that majority of these products we have heard recently about Glucagon, we have heard recently about Victoza. It is between July and August that we should get approval. We haven't heard any different on Risperidone, in the next couple of months we should get that approved as well.

Surya Patra · Phillip Capital

Second question is about the margin for the quarter that you mentioned, Ramesh sir, that after adjustments it is something like 26% kind of a margin profile for the core business for the quarter. And there are adjacencies also which are currently having negative impact to the overall FY25 margin. So, two things - what would have surprised this 26% kind of core EBITDA margin for the quarter. And is it Mirabegron only driving that, you can clarify that. Secondly, the impact of the adjacencies if you can quantify that for FY25?

In terms of adjacencies, this is essentially the digital business, the diagnostics, API CDMO, the bio business, all of these are still evolving. So, if we were to knock out that impact it will be about 3.5 to 3.7 percentage points. And in terms of the first part of the question, we lost out in terms of PLI - not lost out it was actually capping out because there is a limit to what we can claim for any year. So, previous quarter was higher by about INR 50 crores. This quarter that's the impact it is about 1% lower because of that and the higher impact in terms of R&D I will specify that again, the R&D spends are lot higher. If we knock out that impact, then potentially that 23.2% would have been 26%.

Surya Patra · Phillip Capital

There is more than 20% CAGR growth on the R&D spend over the last 3 to 4 years that we have seen. And obviously there are some results that we are witnessing now on the market. Going ahead what would be your plan in terms of the spend quantum, in terms of percentage or in terms of growth?

Our R&D spend would go up next year . I expect at least about 10 % to 15% growth out there. Principally because of the kind of products that we are working on. There is a slant towards more complex stuff. That will bring in a lot of more expenditure as well. If we take count actually close to about 70%-72% of our spends today is really on complex stuff. This includes biosimilars, the inhalation portfolio, the complex injectables, the 505(b)(2)s, all of this, and in some parts the specialty as well. So, that calls for a lot of expenses. Therefore, the ab solute numbers are set to go up. And as a percentage of sales also so it is about 8% right now. So, I believe that will be upward of 8.5% next year.

Surya Patra · Phillip Capital

Just one last clarification, ma'am, from your side. Any competition for Spiriva one should think about?

There are one or two filers that have filed already. But just given how long it took for us to get approval - it took 5 years for us to get approval. Now the FDA would have gained a lot through the interaction back and forth. I think for the next 12 months we should still be the sole generic in the market place.

Kunal Randeria · Axis Capital

Vinita, should we expect Spiriva Respimat launch in FY27?

No, it actually was one of the FY29 DPI products.

Kunal Randeria · Axis Capital

I don't quite understand your biosimilar strategy so when I look at your pipeline. Most of your products are coming maybe 4 or 5 years after the first entrant. So, I don't know, is it more opportunistic because the regulatory barriers seem to be lower now. Just a thought process behind it?

It has been quite an evolution. The strategy has been evolving on the biosimilars front just given the market evolution. When you look at the changes that have taken place in the US. It is really creating opportunity for older products as well for us. For example, Pegfilgrastim it's a very old product, multiple players in the marketplace. But as we have had conversations over the last year with the customer base the fact that we will come in with a new ASP that's attractive for providers makes it a very attractive opportunity. So, we really see value in bringing Pegfilgrastim to market. In the US we have the ability to bring the product into the market ourselves in s fiscal year 30. It will be a material opportunity for us because we likely will still be one of four in the marketplace. Having said that going forward now given the barriers are reducing it becomes like a complex generic play for us. So, the focus is on products where the number of competitors are limited or where we can be one of few in the market place.

Neha Manpuria · Bank of America

Vinita, on your foray into specialty. One, what are the therapy areas that we are looking at this time, is it different from what we were looking at previously which was women's health. Second, you know from a P&L as well as balance sheet investment when does the P&L investment kick in, how much are we thinking we want to invest, given the pipeline that you have. And from balance sheet what's the number that you are looking at committing for M&A or asset acquisition for specialty?

So, on the areas of focus, they are very much Respiratory and CNS. In respiratory given that we have Xopenex, we have a position in respiratory already. We can bring synergies through our development lifecycle management within our internal capabilities. So, respiratory definitely is a big focus, building on what we have. And CNS neurology - with NaMuscla, we are now doing the study to bring the product to US as well, that's multiple times the opportunity of the current product. If we can get other neurology products, they will be synergistic with the infrastructure that we have in Europe as well as what we will build in the US. Those are still the two focus areas. Opportunistically we look at other areas as well based on the assets that come to market. Our focus is very much on accretive assets; on a limited basis we are looking at pipeline assets. On the pipeline front we obviously want de -risked pipelines , so late-stage programs and will want to look at creative structures around it to be able to mitigate the risk on our P&L.

Neha Manpuria · Bank of America

Nilesh, last one for you. For the India business you know you talked about double digit growth for next year. Given Empagliflozin, just went generic we have that impact, we had a large tender number in the base. Despite of that we would be able to grow double digit, would that be a fair conclusion, and what would be driving that growth. Is it new product launches? You mentioned about 400-500 MR additions, are there new divisions that you are launching, just some colour there?

I think we are really coming into our own in some of these therapy areas. We have had all of the disruptions on the cardiovascular side. So, that's all played out and the like. So, now we are seeing that 30% ahead of market growth. We see diabetes obviously with this happening, but we will still see good volume growth and I think we will still grow at a double digit in diabetes as well. Respiratory has been slow in the last couple of years. We have launched a new task force for nebulization, we have expanded our Uday Division which is focused on extra urban as well. That will lead to growth again as well. So, sum of it all I think we are going to grow at double digit and not just for the next year. I think the intent is to grow at 20-30% ahead of the market, I believe the market will grow at 6 -7% or 8% as the case maybe. On top of that if you grow at 20-30% ahead you will be at that double digit.

Kunal Dhamesha · Macquarie

The first question is on Tolvaptan. I think our understanding was that this is going to be a long tail product for us. Has there been any change in that view that we had on this product?

No, we always said that in the 6-month exclusivity we will gain a lot more than the period where we have additional competition. But given the launch efforts and what we have learnt in the last couple of months, the specialty distributors and that market works a little bit differently. They really like to establish longer term relationships. So, for REMS product we expected in any case the tail to be longer and now with the relationships that we have established with the specialty distributors we feel even stronger that we should be able to maintain a high share in the time when others get in.

Prepared remarks (5 blocks)
Well, it's a real pleasure to meet all of you here today in person. I know we haven't done a face-to-face meeting for a good number of years. The last time I recall we met, it was I think in 2022, when we were just coming out of COVID, had gone through a number of challenges that had impacted our performance. And from there, in 2022, with the efforts that we worked upon, I think about it, number one, execution of new product launches, in particular in the US, to turn around th e US business, leveraging our complex generic portfolio to build Other Developed Markets, growing India and Other Emerging Markets on a consistent basis. At the same time, focus on cost optimization whether it's footprint rationalization or broad efficiency measures, and third, our quality and compliance efforts that enabled us to work through our OAI site s, 3 sites in particular, have really enabled us to turn our business around over the last 3 years. We are very pleased that fiscal year '25 has been a stellar year for the organization where we have continued the momentum, the growth momentum, as well as continue to evolve our strategic growth drivers and capabilities to continue to grow in the future. So we look forward to sharing with you our performance thus far and our plans going forward. When you look at our company globally, we are the 12th largest generic company by revenues. We had a great year with <strong>USD 2.7 billion in revenue</strong> and USD 625 million in EBITDA, delivered by a very strong group of Lupin ytts. When you look at our presence across our key markets, we have a leadership position in all our key markets. Starting with the US, where we are the 3rd largest company by prescriptions dispensed. India, where we are the 8th largest, primarily organically. So if you look at our major pillars of growth, you saw our purpose statement that we take a lot of pride in.
The US in particular has come a long way for the organization, evolving our portfolio from the simple products to complex generics, in particular on the inhalation front, very soon on the injectable front as well, fiscal year '26 is going to be a material year on the injectables front, and biosimilars, which is an opportunity that is emerging now for us. If I look at the geopolitical situation, a lot of things happening around the globe that really put India in a very strong position, in particular as countries and regions are de-risking from China. Tariffs are certainly going to shape the trade relationships between countries. We are hopeful that, based on the bilateral trade negotiation between India and the US, the importance of Indian pharma sector in the US, given 50% of the prescriptions in the US come from India, that we are going to be able to convince the stakeholders to have either zero tariff or limited tariff on drugs from India. So that brings me to our strategic areas of focus as an organization. Number one is to sustain our growth in our 2 major regions, India as well as the US. Second is expanding our inhalation business. Third, delivering on our new product launches 'on time and on budget'. Number four is establishing a Speciality business. Fifth is establishing injectables and biosimilars as a growth driver for the future. Sixth is establishing a novel product pipeline. Then building scale across other developed generic markets. And lastly, continued focus on the cost position across our network.
So on the business side, I think the biggest change which has happened is the US business, where we were in this slump and then we have grown the US from a net sales perspective back up to the USD 900-plus million, <strong>USD 925 million</strong>, year-on-year growth of 13%. As you know, we have been number three in the US in terms of generic market share, 4.9% market share. We have more than a hundred products pending in the pipeline, addressing a market size of close to USD 150 billion. And you know the recent NPLs, Mirabegron, Spiriva, Pred Forte, and of course earlier this week, Tolvaptan. If you see in FY25, complex generics is about 30% of our revenues. If you look at the next five years, that complex generics will move to 49% of revenues. And then obviously the key growth drivers for the generics business remains NPLs, more than 100 plus NPLs.
And <strong>65% of revenue</strong>s that we will get will come from complex generics. Over 60 filings in the next five years, focused highly on First to File, on Para 4 products. On our second key market, India, we're ranked number eight. We're not happy at all with this rank. I think we have to be in the top five but currently number eight. Good growth rate in the last 10 years, 12%, 1.2 times the market growth rate, 3.4% market share, our key therapy areas, as you know, are Diabetes, Cardiovascular and Respiratory.
This quarter, again, it is great growth across various markets. The good thing about Lupin is the fact that it's been secular growth across all markets. The most important story is really on the EBITDA and the last several quarters, we have seen continuous growth. This particular quarter, we ended up at <strong>23.2%</strong>, but this is after taking into account a couple of things. The first is, essentially, you would see a INR 100 crore increase when it comes to the R&D expenditure and there has been a decline in terms of PLI that we claimed for this quarter, which is about INR 50 odd crores. So if you would adjust for these two, the actual EBITDA margin would have been close to about 26%. For the full year, of course, done extremely well. Last year's margins were close to about 19%. Full year FY25, we are moving it at 23.7%.
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