Throughline · holding view Deep analysis Q3 FY25
MAZDOCK Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Ltd · Defense Q3 FY25 · concall
Pattern: order book composition france

Refused to commit on order book composition france.

2 deflections · 2 weak · 18 clean pushback across 4 of 22 Q&A turns

Focused evidence 4 of 22

Bhavesh · Individual Investordeflection

Order book at 31 Dec is Rs.34,787 crore — discounting Jan deliveries, would it be ~Rs.26-27,000 crore? Will PM Modi's France visit see Rafale/Scorpene contract sign-off?

Two deliveries in December (not January) already factored into 31 Dec order book; third delivery in early Jan is immaterial. On Rafale/Scorpene France contract: no comments.

Atul Tiwari · JP Morganweak

Will FY26 PBT margin emerge as 12-15% or stay higher? Order book down YoY — will revenue growth slow to 5-10%?

FY26 will not be 12-15% — existing order margins are higher; difficult to assign a number but expect healthy margins. Revenue: growth not projected at 20%, but no decline projected; could see marginal growth.

Jyoti Gupta · Nirmal Bang Institutional Equitiesweak

Order book intake of Rs.17,000-19,000 crore over next 2 years? When does PBT margin decline to 12-15% — after FY26 or FY27?

Rejected the framing — never gave Rs.12,000 crore execution target or specific FY26 margin decline path. 12-15% is industry-normalized only. Existing orders carry similar margins to today (excluding exceptional LD reversals etc).

Gagan Thareja · ASK Investment Managersdeflection

P-76 project status?

Nothing to share right now.

Other Q&A (18)
Atul Tiwari · JP Morgan

Are current ~20-21% margins sustainable over the medium term? PBT or EBITDA basis?

Current margins reflect legacy orders. Normalized industry margin 12-15% at PBT level (including other income). Sustainable PBT for industry is 12-15%.

Atul Tiwari · JP Morgan

P-75(I) status — when can we expect order conclusion?

Price bids opened. Only one bid (MDL's) is technically suitable. Discussions on commercial expected to start anytime. Hopeful order signs in next financial year if process proceeds normally.

Atul Tiwari · JP Morgan

Other large orders in pipeline next 1-2 years? Will the 3 additional Scorpenes happen this FY?

Quite confident the 3 additional Scorpenes will be ordered before 31 March (this FY). Everything done from MDL side; only final MOD/government approvals pending.

Gagan Thareja · ASK Investment Managers

Other expenses (provisions, project related) up substantially — explain?

Provisions on excess inventory where ship warranty period is over (will reverse if utilized later). Provisions for liquidated damages on first ONGC offshore project — timeline extended to 31 March without LD waiver yet; will reverse when waiver received.

Gagan Thareja · ASK Investment Managers

Did D-448 reversal benefit Q3 and will Q4 also? Status of Scorpene LD reversals?

Project 15 Bravo D-448 first ship done; second expected soon — Q3 profit had substantial 15B contribution. Q4 reversal depends on actual D-448 expenditure. Rs.142 crore reversed on Submarine 5 in Q3. Submarine 1 (LD at 2.5% rate) under discussion ~Rs.100 crore. Submarine 6 delivered January — will pursue waiver next.

Gagan Thareja · ASK Investment Managers

Q4 deliveries pending? Other large platform deliveries?

No further deliveries expected this FY. Next FY: one definite, possibly two.

Gagan Thareja · ASK Investment Managers

Next-Gen Corvette order finalization status?

Bid participated. Price bid not yet opened.

Gagan Thareja · ASK Investment Managers

Capex profile annually starting FY26?

Two capex programs: adjacent land (graving dry dock) and Nhava Sheva yard. DPR ready by mid-CY2025; then EPC tender. Environmental clearance is a long process. FY26: ~Rs.500 crore capex (floating dry dock); ~Rs.350 crore balance to be realized next FY.

Gagan Thareja · ASK Investment Managers

Other orders beyond P-75, P-75I, NGC in pipeline next 12-18 months?

No large new ones soon. 17 Bravo (follow-on of 17A) and Next-Gen Destroyers under discussion at Naval end; 2-3 years out.

Gagan Thareja · ASK Investment Managers

From order receipt for P-75 and P-75I, what is delivery schedule?

First submarine 6 years from order placement; subsequent submarines one each year additional. AIP order ~Rs.1,768 crore received in December for existing Scorpenes. Refit order awaiting Navy decision; expected next FY.

Rohit Natarajan · Aditya Birla Sun Life Insurance

Normalized EBITDA/PBT margin assumption for FY26? Will FY26 see revenue decline given pending order signing?

PBT margin ~12-15% (industry normalized). FY26 — no decline expected; not yet projected for growth quantum but growth direction maintained.

Anirudh Murarka · Continental

Goa Shipyard listing plans? Stake?

Goa Shipyard is associate (not subsidiary). MDL holds 47.21%. Investment only; no management control or production participation.

Jyoti Gupta · Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities

How long to execute existing orders? Indigenization impact on margins?

~2-2.5 years for existing orders. Indigenization impact: initial investment required; not expected to materially shift margins either way for these first-time indigenization projects.

Prerak Gandhi · Individual Investor

Yard capacity expansion status? Defense budget — sufficient push toward Navy?

Capex topics already addressed. Budget allocation +5% across all wings; experience shows no dearth of funding for firmed-up proposals — confident orders will follow.

Gagan Thareja · ASK Investment Managers

Will the 3 additional P-75 submarines come with AIP? P-75(I) — is TKMS upscaling AIP?

3 additional P-75 are without AIP; P-75(I) has AIP. Vasudev Puranik: AIP is being integrated and tested; eventually all nine will have AIP. P-75(I) submarines are larger; AIP scale-up from existing TKMS technology — design caters for it. Navantia hasn't developed AIP; not comparable. Submarine design already available.

Gagan Thareja · ASK Investment Managers

P-75(I) delivery timeline post order? P-75 quicker given experience?

P-75(I): seven years for first submarine post contract signing; one year additional for each subsequent. P-75 efficiencies will help speed but timeline is industry-standard.

Anirudh Murarka · Continental

Foreign delegation visits — export potential conversion?

Visits are steps toward exports but take time (bilateral issues). Already small-scale exports to Malaysia (supporting their submarines). Need persistent pursuit.

Alok Shah · Sre PMS

Next-Gen Corvette ~Rs.36,000 crore — when does the tender open?

Navy has not indicated. Nothing happening this FY. Technical evaluation, deficiency documents, then price bid — only next FY.

Prepared remarks (1 blocks)
Welcomed participants to the Q3 FY25 call. Posted a good set of numbers; company is consistently doing well. Brief opening — opened the floor for queries. No detailed CFO walkthrough. Management indicated FY26 will not see revenue decline; growth not yet quantified. PBT margin of 12-15% remains the normalized guidance; current quarter benefited from Project 15 Bravo D-448 liability completion (a substantial contribution) plus Rs.142 crore LD reversal on submarine 5. Provisions taken on excess inventory and on the first ONGC offshore project (LD provision pending waiver). AIP order ~Rs.1,768 crore received in December.
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