Throughline · holding view Deep analysis Q4 FY26
PAYTM One 97 Communications (Paytm) · Other Q4 FY26 · concall
Pattern: fy27 revenue acceleration ebitda

Refused to commit on postpaid quantitative ramp guidance.

4 deflections · 4 weak · 28 clean pushback across 8 of 36 Q&A turns

Focused evidence 8 of 36

Manish Adukia · Goldman Sachsweak

First one, maybe just on the guidance. A bit more colour on the revenue growth acceleration that you've talked Fiscal 27. Now F-26 double digit decline services, growth. guidance acceleration F-27 function recovering, acceleration across services. And on the EBITDA margins. In the past you've talked about a medium term aspirational 15 20% ended 6%.

We should talk about marketing services. Marketing services and cloud and commerce, remember, combined, called help small making sure checkout check-in. once checking shop, counter online, comes back. Thanks to AI agents, this is the area of focus for us in the next 12 months. And let's see how we do it. I do extraordinarily big opportunity, considering we've care services.

Manish Adukia · Goldman Sachsdeflection

I recall used disbursals, peak disbursal Postpaid 9000 crores quarter. given you're saying ramp-up actually faster, reason why foreseeable future. fair statement?

No comments towards any guidance or hint of it.

Vijit Jain · Citiweak

And Vijay, so just sticking to that point a little bit more. What you're talking about is the consumer-facing experience trade. anything back-end need invest serve?

I mean, consumer-facing is rather going to get easier because you will not tap, so everything backend investment. everything -machine. Anything shows front, only back.

Jayant Kharote · Axis Capitalweak

Congratulations for great performance on financials, guys. The first question was on the piece. done strong there. fourth quarter, both GMV 27%, margins moving less basis points, actually throws high margins, 50-60%. real number, missing something?

Just to be clear, guidance earlier was greater than three, which is not to say that you're exactly three. But math doing adjusting correct. strong.

Jayant Kharote · Axis Capitaldeflection

I was just talking about the journey, Madhur. Is it going to be upfronted, or should we now back-ended?

I don't want to get into quarter-on-quarter, but if we are sitting here a year from now, confident see, we'll back operating leverage result.

Piran Engineer · CLSAdeflection

But then what's our value proposition for the core F&O kind of traders versus, say, Zerodha Groww's platform? See, also, sense, analysts allowed trade, traders charge trading, right? They agent recommend, et cetera.

When we launch the product, you'll get to see it. I mean, there's nothing more it. nothing gets launched. secret spice, say. It's visible everybody. I'd writing wall. everybody knows impact addition segment want.

Piran Engineer · CLSAdeflection

Should I take it at 20 -25%? Or a bit higher than that?

I don't think we've guided that before. And it's not a metric that honestly, we try to keep within guardrails target number. I'd that.

Sachin Dixit · JM Financialweak

Just one final question, and more like a quick response. There has obviously been chatter, post that Paytm Payments Bank license thing happening, might license, maybe NBFC license well. Any comments, thoughts that?

We do have a comment on that, and it is in our Q&A at the back of the earnings release. But summarize audience, two broad thoughts that. short answer super excited NBFC license. And the rationale for that is broadly two things. One is we really like our model, where we stick to what we are uniquely at, distribution, building great technology, convert insights well collection abilities. partners, blue-chip partners, managing capital, managing risk, managing cyclicality, on.

Other Q&A (28)
Manish Adukia · Goldman Sachs

Second question on financial services, touched upon earlier question. know stopped giving disbursal numbers, Postpaid launch earlier, talk traction earlier Postpaid. traction ramp-up scale disbursal tracking similar iteration?

Yeah, Manish, better than last time. Classic internet dissemination or diffusion of style. took X time. This taking X time. happy. disbursements. mis-pushes issuing entity, not. pure technology helps different disburse. This nearest adjacent payment. doing phenomenally well. doing well. word phenomenally well. And I'm very happy about it because on the back of it, our personal loan disbursements in the last month; I show quarter, started showing up.

Manish Adukia · Goldman Sachs

PPBL ban, know associate you. You management control there, early impact listed entity OCL, common brand acquisition churn. own wallet prepaid instrument application RBI, outlook that?

I think, no impact. We did a press release on the system. And we remain committed.

Sachin Salgaonkar · BofA

First question, generally a follow-up, accelerating FY27, multiple small businesses yet scale wealth management, brokerage, insurance, even personal basis. Any colour of, acceleration coming businesses scaling existing Soundbox, well help accelerate the growth?

So, first of all, the business model is straight and simple, that we acquire customers using cross-sell services. We've done credit. definitely focused wealth securities, brokerage, whatever item call, combined wealth item. critical third leg growth. is. not, I've ourselves top five sooner later.

Sachin Salgaonkar · BofA

My next question is a statement you mentioned shareholders' letter you're looking keep dry powder selective inorganic action. Now, big-picture basis, this? Any specific areas current looking focus on?

Yeah, any new investment, only in AI. Any new investment, only in AI. No, it's primarily the same customer, same merchant, primarily making their life better.

Sachin Salgaonkar · BofA

Last, just a bit of a follow-up on this RBI thing, what kind of further permissions, licenses expecting RBI? One wallet, largely known, beyond wallet, anything pending, se, RBI view, guys applying?

No, nothing. I'd rather put my head down and execute the journey. There is so much on the plate table ambiguity behind us.

Pranav Kshatriya · Emkay

My first question is regarding the higher proportional and cashback incentives. We've seen expense quarter, correspondingly, we've seen jump services. seasonally lean services, MTU well. trending, timeline outcome?

I think it is the marketing services where you sort of expect, let's say, our commerce items job, cleanup existing beyond services. For example, digital gold platform. There element discount, gift vouchers. We believe that strengthening the moat of customers and locking in on our platform is the first priority, which job is.

Pranav Kshatriya · Emkay

My second question is regarding indirect cost. So, typically, Q1 will have employee costs account appraisals salary hikes. trend here on? Should expect remain current Rs 1,150 Cr thereabouts, that?

So, there are quarter-on-quarter changes, particularly including the impact of appraisals. But, outwards said, grow lower contribution profit continued operating leverage result that. And, second efficiencies various parts organization due AI.

Vijit Jain · Citi

Hi, thank you, my first question is on net payment margins. Good to see, you know, nine basis points overall. You've remained above basis points despite PIDF subsidies away. Looking ahead, major continuing up?

I think there's a whole bunch of smaller factors, but the two major factors, especially when margin, bps. two major factors improvements, giving luxury having pricing discipline. talked pricing discipline presentation, underlying piece keeps result, case, value product. And the second is just a shift in the industry, which is credit instruments being on UPI rails and growing at a faster pace GMV.

Vijit Jain · Citi

So, Madhur, safe to say, there are plenty of upside drivers to those core net payment margins, right, 4 bps greater 4 bps.

Absolutely.

Vijit Jain · Citi

And then specifically on some of these, you know, a lot of your merchants are long-tail mid-market side things, imagine things settling balances faster forth potentially useful thing kinds larger merchants. Is that a product that has a lot of success and adoption?

Yeah, we do instant settlement as a product. It's a good product. It's an industry product.

Vijit Jain · Citi

On Paytm Money. So in general, you know, are there any investments need within Money of, proposition compelling heavy users, traders say, investors? Any, sense whether gaps there?

Short answer, dramatic more. I mean, obviously, the AI is changing everything, my friend. agents show trading. Agents care portfolio readjustment. Agents show trading strategy yours reviewed. Agents create option chains you. Agents create scalper. I feel lucky that we did not dump a lot of money earlier, because in the AI world, everything resets.

Vijit Jain · Citi

My last question, any comments on how Paytm Check-in has done since you've launched it? few quarters.

So, Vijit, this is our dip test on how Indian consumers are okay for an interface that chat interface, agent interface, completely agentic. perfect experiment it, picked different brand name perceive okay, popped something. completely agentic approach interfaces. agentic interface rejuvenated gain categories. experiment. Vijit, one side note. You will be shocked, the funnel conversion on agentic when a starts, typically 2% 3% funnel starts commitment browsed funnel converts meaning 100 they're searching, goes 3% scenario, product company will do that. It's 7 or 8 times more than that, my friend.

Jayant Kharote · Axis Capital

Unfortunately, what that implies is that subscription revenue is not growing at all YoY. despite adding 27 lakh devices, 22% base. lot gone PIDF linked devices? course, without price hike?

It is the case that PIDF has an impact, and it is also the case that without adjusting for that, device device lower, funnel lending. What internally payback periods detailed cohort level, payback periods improving significantly. Part efficient acquiring capex device, well retention merchants.

Jayant Kharote · Axis Capital

Does that mean because we have two strong pillars in the net payment revenues. Does essentially looking ahead, largely heavy lifting item?

It is the case that payment processing margin is growing faster, and partly because growing faster, combined fact okay bit less money device merchant.

Jayant Kharote · Axis Capital

Just one follow-up on that only, that the credit card on UPI growth, I mean, you've seen whole industry moderated due single digit generally we've observing moves 2x roughly, 30% industry 15. Now industry down 7 10, observing similar moderation 30-odd 20, 25.

What you're saying logically should have some impact, but I don't think we're seeing anything noticeable there, Credit Card small, very, small percentage card.

Jayant Kharote · Axis Capital

On costs and margin, we are guiding for more than 22% growth, and if I'm correct contribution margins, expect between 55 60, maybe 55 60, happening PIDF impact. indirect costs, after great performance eight quarters, rightfully investing picking up. here on, journey incremental saw year?

We, I assume you're talking about EBITDA margins. Like we said in writing, we do expect significant operating leverage going forward because, logically, math were doing, acceleration, confident of, indirect expenses lower, math embedded operating leverage forward.

Rahul Jain · Dolat Capital

Firstly, we have highlighted the investment we intend to do cashback side. Can highlight cases, run rate view, meaningful exit 1 billion odd invested quarter?

Yeah, so Vijay, I think you sort of already touched upon this. Our digital gold is one of those categories, covered services, housekeeping point, several cases services, particularly travel, ROI investments, always chunk goes ensuring you're building engagement retention customers.

Rahul Jain · Dolat Capital

Surely, and on the sales side, do we see some more optimization to happen since the sunset on PIDF scheme?

I think it's a combination of sales optimization, as well as subscription revenue per device optimization. quarter, end January, we'll offset few quarters, Q4, response question, offset 30 40%. pleased report did achieve confident we'll achieve near full offset. show sales impact.

Rahul Jain · Dolat Capital

And just lastly, of course, people have tried asking this on AI investments. Would this be creating captive data center data inferencing, purely M&A view?

There's nothing like we don't have a capex plan yet. I mean, there is enough capex US big guys doing, game yet. invest AI, equal like, saying, let's say, using agents customers. We can rent somewhere the data center, we can rent let's say, NVIDIA's and then run our own model on top of it, investment. Investment attention effort, capital. material capital plan table plan.

Harshit · Premji

Hi Vijay, hi Madhur. So the question was more to get some sense of our merchant ecosystem base. Vijay, segment okay borrow 25-30% rough IRR them know guys disbursement calculations etc whatever even 40-50,000 crore annual run rate, itself, addressable market.

The best part is that we don't own the book. So everybody who wants to serve this potential partner, including banks anybody else, acknowledge that. problem own book somebody else owns book. They current lenders interested customer. become channel. On base, penetrated less 5% 5.5% now?

Harshit · Premji

Got it. My point in competition was more from distribution itself. For example, many other players access today. engagement, everyone try engagement. competition distribution understand, lender's view.

All right, so the merchant who is our merchant, if that merchant deflects from us as merchant, don't superior state distributing; somebody superior state distributing. counter-share question, Harshit. So there are two kinds of merchants, exclusive to us or non-exclusive to us, only that.

Piran Engineer · CLSA

Yeah, hi. Hi, good morning, guys. Congrats on the quarter. Just firstly, on the retail broking thing, touched upon using grow firstly, targeting broking account after everyone? Because assuming seven, eight active lot already broking incumbent platforms, right?

We add on both sides. We add customers from both sides. We have net churn gainer platforms, customers. New mostly mutual fund SIP creations. typically, called churn platforms, okay multiple accounts.

Piran Engineer · CLSA

And we will not indulge in price discounting, et cetera, right, to gain share there.

So always remember, Piran, payments is our customer acquisition. This is our monetization layer.

Piran Engineer · CLSA

Fair, okay. Just secondly, a data keeping question. This quarter and last quarter, what is the proportion DLG disbursements?

Proportion of DLG is broadly flat, maybe slightly higher. The proportion of loans that come DLG higher. DLG flat, flattish.

Piran Engineer · CLSA

Got it, okay. And just lastly, can you give us some colour on online versus offline growth on side?

Online, I'd say, we've started to grow the GMV. We've started to farm the account better. started add customers. bigger considering D2C brands, offline envisaged back, say. address, addressing accordingly approach.

Sachin Dixit · JM Financial

Thanks, Anandita. Hi Vijay, and on the question side, my first question was on basically monetization products. early days, talk anything the, especially soundbox capabilities products actually monetization benefits creeping already?

Yeah, so classically marketing, which we used to give them tools. Now we are asking them agents. easier agents necessary job taking care workflow versus, let's we, giving them products. So that is the kind of approach that we are taking. So the product line items still will remain the same, and it lead using allowing AI.

Sachin Dixit · JM Financial

On the second question side, sort of a top-up on Harshit's question well. possible break down lending, right? growing almost high 30s, 40s.

I have the data so I can share it. So historically, what we have seen is three primary drivers growth. One base. second rate. third size. each broadly similar. roughly 15% each drivers. dig to. Now going forward, for our core business, we think this will probably remain the same.

Alok Srivastava · UBS

Sure. Yeah, hi, morning, Vijay, morning, Madhur. I just have one question. If you could provide colour affordability. release, mentioned supported margin. whatever comfortable sharing, of, let's say, GMV, percent machines affordability enabled, outlook here, value proposition, on.

I think the one thing I can say is more than half of our machines are enabled for disbursing EMIs. GMV numbers instrument, sure enterprise segment, long tail segment, both alike. liked affordability, feature shop. aggregate everybody. aggregation, primary role here. aggregate many people.

Prepared remarks (2 blocks)
There is a queue. Hi, good morning. Thank you for joining us early in the morning. Like I'll switch video early morning. That's fine. Keeping tradition, switch-on video. At same changed release. tried crisper. tried simpler. tried bring important communication style tune done. sure feedback, love feedback, tune accordingly. hope now. With me Madhur here, start.
I think the overall acceleration given payments is about 55% of the revenue, 30% revenue, across board. strong tailwinds payments, both offline well full license now. adding on. services. As mentioned before, solid. recovery personal wealth. In addition to what Vijay said about marketing services and sort of addressed your question, yes, we expect contributor forward. bit drag across board. EBITDA, maintain two half years sorts margins.
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