Sumit Kishore · Axis Capital
TBCB project wins of INR 92,000 crores were terrific. What is the transmission bid pipeline for FY26? Also, capitalization missed earlier guidance - what is the spillover picture and what is FY26-27 capitalization guidance?
In FY 2024-25, we had Capex of INR 26,000 crore plus and INR 9,000 crore plus capitalization. We had planned INR 16,000-17,000 crores capitalization but faced ROW challenges, supply issues, skilled manpower problems, and election delays especially in Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi and Gujarat. Some projects are now planned to commission in Q1 FY26, some may slip to Q2. In FY 2025-26, we expect INR 23,000 crores to INR 25,000 crores capitalization.
Sumit Kishore · Axis Capital
Also on the bid prospect pipeline for FY '26?
Pipeline projects already in the queue is about INR 45,000-46,000 crore, of which about INR 34,000 crore are already under bidding and INR 10,000-11,000 crore are yet to be bid. So INR 46,000 crore as of now.
Sumit Kishore · Axis Capital
There has been bunching of RE projects with LOAs awarded but PPAs not signed, and weak power demand. How does that impact POWERGRID's capitalization and works in hand if RE additions get delayed?
Our transmission line is not dependent on whether PPA is signed or not. Once we commission any RE project or any project, we start getting our tariffs. POWERGRID will not be affected by these issues.
Sumit Kishore · Axis Capital
ROE has dipped about 100 bps at consolidated level. Has ROE stabilized? Outlook on capital structure at 59:41 and dividend has come off to INR 9?
Dividend payout was reduced by about INR 2-INR 2.25 because we require equity for project execution given more projects now. Next year also dividend may further reduce given expected Capex of INR 28,000-30,000 crores. On ROE, last year we had INR 15,500 crores profit, this year similar range, but Net Worth has increased from INR 87,000 crore to more than INR 90,000 crores - that is the reason for the impact.
Apoorva Bahadur ·
On the INR 92,000 crores worth of FY25 projects - is this the NCT cost, and how much higher is the actual cost likely to be?
It is not NCT cost. It is our internal cost at which we have awarded the projects.
Apoorva Bahadur ·
Has there been any change in competitive intensity for TBCB project bids this year?
No. We are not going below a certain level - we have fixed a particular level of more than 12% or 13% ROE. We are maintaining that, and our percentage is very good. INR 92,000 crore projects in a single year is not a small thing, but we are maintaining ROE above the particular level.
Apoorva Bahadur ·
On HVDC projects, can you give visibility beyond the 3-4 known projects? How many more are under planning?
HVDC projects: Khavda to Nagpur, Fatehgarh to Bhadla, Leh to Pang. Khavda to South Olpad already under bidding. Rajasthan to Maharashtra, Andhra Kurnool area to Vizag. Outside India: India to Singapore via Andaman, India to Sri Lanka, India to Myanmar; under One Sun One World One Grid, India to Oman, UAE and others.
Satyadeep ·
On 4Q delays - in 3Q management guided to INR 11,000 crores capitalization in 4Q. What's leading to delays? On large gap between capex and capitalization, how much time and cost overrun are you seeing for AC lines and TBCB projects vs initial expectations?
ROW challenges are real - landowners and farmers demanding more money. In June 2024, GoI ROW guideline raised compensation from 15% to 30% of land cost and from 85% to 200% on tower base. In March 2025, urban areas raised to 60% (from 30%) and semi-urban to 45%. State government adoption causes delays. There was unrest in Haryana and Delhi. We are likely to claim differential amounts under change of law since project bids assumed October 2015 compensation policies. Not expecting much impact, though there may be some.
Mohit ·
What is the status of HVDC Leh-Ladakh and why is there delay in awarding the equipment?
Leh-Ladakh project is already being executed by POWERGRID. Land acquired at Leh, infrastructure development going on. Working on a line between Pang to Leh. HVDC award faces technological challenges at 4,500-5,000 meters height with no worldwide experience. Bid received and under evaluation; expected to be awarded in Q2.
Puneet ·
What is the gap between NCT value and your own internal estimates for the INR 92,000 crores of project wins?
Except for Khavda to Nagpur HVDC, others are within 5% variation. For Khavda to Nagpur, NCT cost is about INR 24,000 crores, but actual cost may be INR 33,000 to INR 34,000 crores.
Puneet ·
On change of law pass-through of compensation - will you also get benefit of additional cost overruns due to delayed execution from ROW issues, or only land value?
It will impact IDC. We are likely to get this also and will claim that whatever project overrun and increased IDC has happened due to delay.
Subhadip Mitra ·
On HVDC TBCB pipeline - when does South Olpad project enter tendering phase?
RFP already issued, bids likely to be submitted very soon. Date of 16th May has been extended due to bidder queries. Tender is already out and will be finalized very soon.
Subhadip Mitra ·
Are you seeing more HVDC projects beyond South Olpad - maybe Barmer or other LCC-based projects?
South Olpad is VSC. Barmer to Maharashtra likely LCC. Andhra Kurnool to Vizag also LCC. VSC is currently only for cross-border lines (India to Oman/UAE, Singapore to India).
Atul Tiwari ·
Likely capex on Paradeep, Andaman, Singapore link - what's the rough size?
Per initial estimates, INR 30,000-plus crore.
Atul Tiwari ·
Capacity for that capex?
Singapore to India about 2,000 MW. Andaman to Paradeep about 250 MW.
Atul Tiwari ·
TBCB pipeline beyond INR 45,000 crores - longer term view across FY '27 and '28?
Per NEP pipeline, more than INR 9 lakh crore projects to be completed by 2032. About INR 3 lakh crore already allocated, so about INR 6 lakh crore still to be allocated. Considering 2-3 years execution time, by '29 all balance projects to be allocated. So in next 4 years, all balance transmission projects are to be allocated.
Sumit Kishore · Axis Capital
Capex of INR 1,080 billion over FY26-28 vs works in hand of INR 1,546 billion - how much capex is for HVDC projects which have longer gestation, including the Leh project?
INR 1,54,000 crore projects in hand, INR 28,000 crores in FY 25-26, INR 35,000 crores in 26-27 and INR 45,000 crores in 27-28 totalling INR 108,000-110,000 crores. Balance is for HVDC (Kaithal to Pang and Khavda to Nagpur). Majority of HVDC capex will be after 2 years; 20-30% up to 27-28, balance after 2 years.
Puneet ·
Potential opportunity on intra-state transmission - is it opening up or still largely done by state transcos?
Per NEP, INR 3 lakh crore plus capex in intra-state. Without TBCB execution it will be difficult for states. UP, MP, Rajasthan, Odisha, Maharashtra have already come out with intra-state TBCB projects. We are participating with same interest as inter-state TBCB. More states are opening up.