Refused to commit on export market share key.
- Bhargavastra status 155 mm — answer hedged.
- Long term export business — answer hedged.
- Export market share key — question deflected.
On defense - color on Bhargavastra counter-drone systems progress (any pending tests and when can we expect orders) and progress on 155 mm shells with respect to tests and certifications?
So normally, we would like to avoid all such product-specific questions due to a variety of reasons. But Bhargavastra is a strategic item for us, and we are developing this product from last couple of years. And this product will be one of the very few companies in the world who will be developing such kind of system. So the product development is in the final stage. But still, such kind of product development takes longer time than what we expect. But definitely, we should be able to complete all the trials in this calendar year. So this is the status of Bhargavastra. And as far as 155 mm products are concerned, we have already started supplying all the raw material intermediates going into this product. Our coupling facility, which will help us to produce the complete 155 mm product, we should be able to finish in next couple of quarters. But definitely, it will take another 3 to 4 months' time, then we will start supplying the complete round of 155 mm.
On exports business - historically grew 3.5x FY19-23, then flattish FY23-25, now 32% growth in FY26. How big is this opportunity 2-3 years down the line - can we expect 2-3x jump in topline? What investment is needed on capacity expansion and client traction side?
Yes. Thank you very much. Yes, you are right that if you look at 2015 number, the export and overseas was around INR400 crores, and that has reached to almost INR800 crores, and there, we hover around for almost 3 to 4 years, right from 2021 to almost -- 2018 till '21, we were in that range of INR800 crores. And after that, it started picking up. So the point was that during that period, we were setting up the greenfield facilities, qualifying ourselves into the overall mining procurement system. So that was the key period. And after that, the sales from our exports and overseas has started picking up, especially from 2022. So that was the year when it has reached to INR1,400 crores. And now it has crossed almost INR3,800 crores. And next year also, we are expecting a growth of around 30%. So we believe that there are plenty of opportunities for us in the international market. But it will be very difficult for us to give any trajectory specifically in numbers of how much multiple we can grow, or how much times we can grow from this base. But I feel that since international markets are growing at 2% to 3%, but we expect that volume terms, we should be able to grow comfortably at around 10%. And in value terms, we should grow at around 15%. But this year, definitely, because of the rise in commodity prices will help us to have more top line. So that's why we are bullish and for the next year, we are expecting a growth of around 30%.
Clarification - can you give us some understanding about market share that you have in key markets in export region?
As of now, we don't have that kind of visibility.
On competition - we are hearing about probable entry of Kalyani Group into explosive business. Any thought process here? Do you see incremental competition because of this, especially in defense?
So the first point is, definitely, I would not like to comment on the competition side or competitive, but it's a matter of fact that Solar has risen its base from 1996 where it was a small player in the whole explosive market. And we have competed with the world number 1, number 2 in the market and we have increased our presence. So from competition side, we are not afraid from anyone. But market opportunities are immense, where everybody will have its own pie. We cannot say that we will have 100% market share, and that is not our target also. And the way we are expanding, it is not the only product which we are working into. We are not a hardware company also. We are developing energetic products. We are expanding our technology footprints and going to offer many advanced technology solutions for the border security.
Next year capex split between defense versus non-defense explosives for the INR2,000 crores plus capex?
Like we always say that for us, our business is one. And next year, we are going to invest around INR2,050 crores, and we always channelize the capex programs based on the priority and the market opportunity available to us.
New product development pipeline - which products are in advanced stages of finalization and can come into the portfolio soon, and which are in early stages?
So like I said, it is not wise on our part to share the program-wise progress and status. But definitely, the products on which we are working very closely and which are in the final stages, is one of them is Bhargavastra, which is a counter-drone product. There are multiple options within the loitering ammunition. Those are also in the pipeline. Apart from these two, like I said, 155 mm complete round of ammunition, that is also in the last stage of complete trials. So once we have finished, like I said, we have already started making the propellants for these products, which is large caliber ammunitions. Now we are going to make a complete round and supply for the qualification. So these are the key products apart from many others, which are in the design and development part and that is not good on us to explain the exact status for each product. You can also see DRDO is developing many of the products, and we have also partnered with those programs. But these program takes time. And we will definitely share the progress on key milestones.
Contribution of subsidiaries to consolidated bottom line - consolidated EPS Rs.185 vs Rs.134 last year, of which subsidiaries contributed Rs.50 vs Rs.45 - barely added despite export/international presence. Why?
So sir, in the first half of this year, since the defense business because defense -- our Solar Defense is a subsidiary of Solar Industries and our international business are also subsidiaries. So if you look at the total results, definitely in the first 6 months, the results from the defense section as well as the international as far as margins are concerned were subdued and it started improving from Q3. And in Q4 those all started giving very good results. So that's the key factor. And now onwards, we believe that the subsidiary level, whether it is in India or overseas, all will start delivering very good performance. And that's why despite of a very high base of raw material prices, which we are expecting in the coming financial year, we are pretty confident that we should be able to achieve the current levels of EBITDA margins. If you look at the 3, 4 years back period, when the raw material prices has increased by 50%, 60%, 70%, at those times, our EBITDA margins went down by around 2% to 3%. So this time, we are confident that we should be able to manage this situation with the help of improved defense as well as international business.
Exports business remained flattish sequentially - are you seeing any headwinds on account of developments in West Asia regarding freight and logistics? Would it impact Q1 growth?
In the Q4, the revenue from international is around INR1,000 crores, and last quarter also, it was in a similar range. So we expect improved performance even more than these levels in the coming quarters.
On commodity price increases - benefit of price increase comes with a lag, so could we see margin impact in Q1 and recoup in Q2?
So we run business as a whole, and we don't wish on quarter-to-quarter basis. So what guidance we have given, we are pretty optimistic that we should be able to achieve that.
Because of ammonium nitrate price increase, would buyers wait for prices to cool off before buying? Any demand impact?
It is too early to comment on this because the impact of very high prices of commodities killing the demand. We need to wait for some more time, get the clarity and the response of the people who are going to consume these products. But by and large, we are -- we do feel that there can be a demand contraction for some couple of months. But by and large, on an annual basis, I don't see that.
Question on international business growth and new geographies like Zimbabwe that we entered this year - what other key geographies are we thinking about and where are we expecting more traction in FY '27?
Thank you, Amit. You are very right that international business is doing quite good. And like I said, in this year, the international business has grown by 32%. And in the next year, which is FY '27, we are expecting apart from defense, domestic and international both should do very good. So as far as new territories are concerned, mainly, we are focusing on African continent, and that's the market where we are expanding every year. So like I have explained in my previous calls, we have created South Africa as one of the hub for our future expansions. And we are -- we have already set up the facilities apart from South Africa in Zambia, Tanzania, and we have also started Zimbabwe facility. And in the West Africa, we have Nigeria as a base. And from there, we have started our operations in Ghana. And in this year, we are expecting to start operation in Sierra Leone. And in Turkey, we have a strong base, and we have started Kazakhstan plant. So similarly, we are trying to expand in all those markets, which helps us to utilize the facilities which we have set up in these major markets. And as far as Southeast Asia is concerned, we have a small facility at Thailand and Indonesia. Australia is also going to start very soon.
Excluding exports and defense, domestic implied growth is about 35% for FY27 - is it on account of low base from FY26 monsoon impact and higher traction on infra and coal volume side?
Yes. So for the next year, like why we have mentioned that we are targeting INR14,000 crores revenue, and if you take the defense out of that total number, then it is around INR9,500 crores. And like I said, the domestic and international combined together, we should be able to grow plus 30%. So out of this 30%, 32% or 33% growth, we expect that 10% to 15% should come from volume growth and around 20% -- 18% to 20% should come from the price rise. So that is mainly because of the impact of the higher crude or gas prices on the down -- upstream products or downstream lines. As far as the demand, the domestic market is concerned, last year, it was a totally flat growth market or you can say the OB removal in Coal India, Singareni and private coal mines combined together was on a negative side. But despite of that, we managed a decent growth of around 4% in value terms. And this year, we expect that because of the pressure in the market where people would like to shift from the diesel, petrol or generated products to the electricity-based products. So that will definitely help the growth in the coal mining sector. And since last year was the bottom-out kind of situation for OB removal section. So this year, we expect the demand should pick up.
Defense mix is improving in overall sales but margin guidance shows some impact versus last year. Is it some items where cost inflation pass-on is difficult or are we being conservative?
So as far as EBITDA margins are concerned, you are aware that prices of all the commodities has gone up and definitely passing on the same increase sometimes is difficult. But we have increased the prices, and there are rise and fall calculations already in place in our contracts. So that will take care of the actual price rise. But if you look into the overall EBITDA margin, definitely, there will be some, little bit impact. But since our defense is picking up, international is also doing very good. So we should be able to maintain the current EBITDA margins.
On domestic explosive market share gain strategy - is it through new products since segments and user industries are limited and none are growing 10-12%?
So it is not a straight away market gaining strategy. Over the last, say, 10, 12 years, we were expanding our facilities at our core plant, which is at Nagpur, which makes package explosives and initiating systems. But as we have become a global player, the capacity utilization level has gone up. At the same time, if you look into the logistics cost, which comes on the explosives, it is a wise step for us to expand outside Nagpur. That's why we have acquired a company in Northern part of India. At the same time, we have just almost finished the mega expansion in Western part of India. And similarly, we are going to expand our base in Orissa and Telangana markets, Andhra Pradesh. So this is a key reason. Second is, as you are near to the customer, definitely gaining or servicing the customer is always better. And that helps us to grow or grab the market growth in those markets. So that's the key point.
Were there any inventory gains in this quarter's numbers or were these natural margins we were expecting?
So definitely, whenever prices goes up, we have inventories like in this quarter, our inventory was more than what we normally carry due to a variety of reasons. And definitely, we will have inventory gain in the coming quarters. But at the same time, this is very normal for our kind of industry. And since price goes up by, example, $200, but you will get only on the price escalation based only for, say, 60% of the total increase. So that will take care of only the price increase. But there are certain contracts where we can pass on after a quarter. So those kind of situation, we can easily absorb with having such kind of inventory level. So definitely, we are in a very good position to absorb these kind of shocks.
Order book breakup between defense and non-defense for the INR21,300 crores order book and major orders expected in the near future?
Yes. Out of the total INR21,000 crores of order book, defense is around INR18,000 crores, and nondefense is around INR3,000 crores. And out of this total defense INR18,000 crores order book and mainly the biggest order was from Pinaka and rest all are small, small, raw material intermediate goods for the Indian market. And we have also received plenty of orders from the international markets and as far as new orders are coming, yes, we are in final stages of receiving orders for the similar products. And we are also expecting orders from Pinaka series of products that is in the discussion stage. We are in negotiation, but that takes time.
Update on medium caliber ammunition facility - is it operational now or still awaiting certification?
That is already commissioned, and we are starting supplying the products for qualification. And once we qualify, we will definitely receive orders for those products.
Working capital question - FY25-26 working capital sucked away almost INR1,600 crores, prior year released about INR800 crores - so almost INR2,400 crores swing in operational cash flow. Any comments?
Sir, the working capital days had been -- in this year, it had been hovering around 90 to 100 days till quarter 3. But in quarter 4, so the working capital days have been increased primarily due to higher inventory levels. They were mainly done to build them and mitigate the risk arising from geopolitical uncertainties. And to address the uncertainties and maintain supply chain continuity have been critical. And as Manish ji had answered in the last call, so obviously, the inventory levels will help us going forward. So as to it won't disturb the revenues going ahead as well as the same will help in generating the margins. As the geopolitical situation stabilizes, we anticipate normalization in the working capital limits over time, maybe in the next 2 quarters.