Throughline · holding view Deep analysis Q4 FY25
SONACOMS Sona BLW Precision Forgings Ltd · Other Q4 FY25 · concall
Pattern: manufacturing setup

Q3FY26 is best-ever quarter on revenue/EBITDA after Q1FY26 worst-since-IPO.

2 deflections · 4 weak · 13 clean pushback across 6 of 19 Q&A turns

Focused evidence 6 of 19

Kapil Singh · Nomuraweak

Is there a need to set up manufacturing in the US or that is ruled out.

In this one month there have been 3 or 4 changes already. We will wait for the dust to settle before we make any committed investments anywhere, but as you well know, we have a plant in Mexico. We have a plant in the US. We are actually in the process of another plant in Mexico. If really required, we can put up a final assembly plant in the US. It is not something that will happen in the next 12 months, obviously it takes 12 to 18 months to do any of those. We have received zero requests from any customer to do anything.

Gunjan Prithyani · JP Morganweak

Could you clarify the PLI accrual for this quarter and full year, so that we can accordingly look at the FY26 margin as well.

We would not be disclosing the PLI numbers separately because of customer confidentiality and commercial reasons we've decided not to disclose it separately, but we've recognized the full year PLI income in the 4th quarter. So if we have to take out the first 3 quarters impact, that would be about 19 crores.

Jinesh · Question boxdeflection

Are we largely done with the inventory restocking at the key customer? By when do you expect normalized sourcing from the customer?

A little early to tell. It's only been a month since the new model launched. How much time it will take to go to ramp up and go back to what the earlier model run rate was, we don't know, a little early. I think we will know by the end of this quarter, by the end of June, that how much time will it take to get to the run rate of previous production.

Jay Kale · Elara Capitalweak

Regarding your Clear Motion and your suspension motor - any conversations on this technology with other customers in advanced stages?

CMI launch or the Nio launch happened in the last quarter. The vehicle which is ET9 is doing pretty good. We are getting good reviews from our customers as well as from CMI. So far it's looking very great, and there is a lot of opportunities. We are in discussion with the customer on other vehicle applications.

Jinesh · Question boxweak

The one-time cost that is significant and not disclosed, is it related to acquisition of railways or something else?

Acquisition-related costs anyway are separately disclosed so that we've shown as an adjustment to PAT. So, this is some other one-time cost.

Kapil Singh · Nomuradeflection

On the new products - what will be the content per vehicles for these products and would it be fair to say that one of the reasons that you have won these orders despite tariff changes is because there is no competition for this type of products?

Less competition. There is never no competition. Competition directly causes excellence. A lack of competition is actually a very sad state to live in. So, there is limited competition on that scale of precision and a top delivery capability. The goal is to continue going from component to subsystem to system to ensure our customers get what they want. The customer doesn't decide because of what we want, the customer needs to get... for us it's always going to be customer.

Other Q&A (13)
Kapil Singh · Nomura

There's a lot of uncertainty relating to tariffs - how are customers reacting? In terms of schedules and long-term thinking. Is there a need to evaluate setting up facilities outside India in the US?

Risk can be modeled, uncertainty is not modellable. In the last 1.5 months I've had 20 times the calls from investors and journalists than I have from customers. Apart from one customer, nobody has really called us. Net net we have 40% of our total revenue to US, in which we have identified 3% where there could be some risk of either revenue loss. Almost everything else seems to be, at least for the two-year period, nil to low risk. Our competitors in both our major product categories tend to be from China. In an event in which tariffs are imposed on every country, it is basically then your relative pricing that comes into place. The gap has actually widened much more. 3% of our total revenue is what we would say is that medium risk in the next 12 to 18 months.

Gunjan Prithyani · JP Morgan

Could you talk about the whole traction motor opportunity for India, particularly railways and traction motors?

Traction motor right now we are in two-wheeler and three wheeler. Of course we want to expand to light commercial vehicles, buses, passenger cars, but that will happen in due course. We foresee at least for this year, it is growing quite rapidly on its own. We are developing high voltage traction motors because to approach the bigger weight segments or larger vehicle category at low voltage is not a sustainable way of doing it.

Gunjan Prithyani · JP Morgan

Going to this humanoid opportunity that you talked about, is there any timelines? What stage of development are we at, and competitive landscape - a lot of this is China focused.

Currently this supply chain is pretty much dominated out of China. Now if you look at what is happening in the world, it is actually a global trade reset. When that supply chain shifts, people who are capable and who have the competence to develop parts around gears, reducers and motors have a far higher likelihood of success. We are at a certain technology readiness level, but success in these things is binary. We've been working on it for almost a year now, so we are fairly confident, but commercial success is the only success that will matter and that remains as always binary.

Jinesh · Question box

How do you think about your ongoing investment in Mexico for compliance with USMCA? Would this plant be more of an assembly plant and what is your investment in Mexico plant?

We are going ahead with phase one. It is currently in progress. Our first few customers are actually Mexico companies producing there. So it isn't for USMCA, for us at least, if that customer re-exports to US, that would be their thing. The first customer is actually not in the HS codes in the auto tariffs. Rohit, you can talk about. At this moment, we are looking to invest a number which is below $10 million. That's the first stage.

Jinesh · Question box

How should we think about margins? FY25 adjusted for 19 crores is around 25%. Should this be back to over 26% as the key customer production normalizes.

How it will go forward will depend on how each different geography does. We are only at the end of the first month, and tariffs still haven't kicked in the US. Railways will start adding from 1st June. Now the moment you add an 18% EBITDA business to a 27% EBITDA business, obviously the numbers will not stack up to the same 25-26. So end of next quarter we will give you a range, but if you just do the math, 27x80 and 18x20, you will come to somewhere closer to between 24 to 25.

Ayan · Question box

Is there any impact of China's restriction on rare earth magnets on production of traction motors?

We have inventory right now, so nothing yet. We are working with our suppliers to do get them the export licenses. Magnetization can be also achieved with lower grade magnets. They can even be achieved by ferrite magnets, to be honest. It just makes the motor much heavier. There could be compromise on the product bit that you let go of certain weight restrictions in which we are working with our customers. So this is not an unsolvable problem. We are also exploring other sources and other suppliers who are not in China.

Rituraj · Question box

With respect to non-BEV business, our revenues have consistently declined for last 3 quarters on a YoY basis. What are the challenges and how do you expect this overall business to evolve in the next 18 to 24 months?

Non-BEV revenue, there is no challenge as such. Non-BEV revenue is basically starter motors. ICE is actually declining, so starter motor revenue is on a natural decline path as EV penetration goes. In Driveline, it's actually not anything to do with our thing. We have a large market share. However, if the industry, the underlying industry does not grow, it is obviously challenging to grow when you already have high market shares, especially in India.

Kartik · Question box

Who do you think is likely to absorb the tariffs?

As tariffs are taxes on whoever imports it. We mostly do either Ex-works or DAP, so we are exporters. We are not the importers. Now 25% tariff is not something that can be absorbed by anyone because nobody makes 25% net margin. Which is why eventually the consumer, the end consumer pays for it in the form of higher end product prices. In 3% of our total revenue there is medium risk, but the risk is not a margin dilution. It is actually that that business might just disappear. Eventually, the consumer pays.

Jay Kale · Elara Capital

We have seen some of your US customers refocusing on some of their ICE projects given the softness in EVs. Are you seeing any green shoots for your traditional ICE business in the coming years?

Strangely, yes, so that's been one of the I'd say weird second order impact of all of this which is going on, that we are now suddenly getting starter motor RFQs which had kind of dried up. Last couple of years we were not getting any starter motor RFQs. We have suddenly have a lot of starter motor RFQs. In fact, last quarter we won a couple of large starter motor orders. Nobody will set up capacities for a declining product - it would mean people who are relatively better positioned which means they are outside China and maybe outside Europe, which pretty much means you have to be in India or US, you will get a lot of new orders.

Ajay · Question box

Are there any plans to open offices or factories in China as they seem to be leading EV vehicles?

We have a plant in China, where we do these suspension motors, so we have a team there. So that's already there. I don't think ignoring China is a wise option. So we will continue to work. We are not political or ideological, we are a company. We will continue to work with our friends and customers in the US. We will continue to work with our friends and customers in China. There is nothing concrete for a second plant, but if it happens, of course, we'll let you know.

Rishi · Question box

Sona was planning to develop a Magnetless motor. Have the constraints on rare earths pushed them to accelerate this development?

Yes, that would be the wise thing to do, that we should accelerate, there are limits. I think we have updated on this before that it wasn't reaching the required efficiency. The technology is very sound. The efficiency wasn't coming to that. In 2021 itself, we had announced the development of a non-rare earth, or rare earth free motors. Those we already have. Net net, one conclusion we have to draw that if any material's supply can be used as a geo-strategic negotiating tool, we must find ways to counter that threat in the future. It is a less dependable world now.

Shrivatsa · Question box

Does your software have adjacency for humanoid robots?

NOVELIC's specialty is in radar sensors. So as of today, not really, because the first wave of humanoid robots that are being developed are not going to be used in situations that are very hazardous. Radar comes into play when cameras are not enough, like you are going in rain, snow, where visibility can be restricted. Currently that is not the case, so there is limited applicability of radar, which is why motor and drive line is what we are focusing on.

Jay Kale · Elara Capital

With EV two wheelers in the market for some time, strategy of OEMs of insourcing versus outsourcing - which way are OEMs going?

I think there'll be a mix, as it has been in every component over the years. Some will insource, some will outsource. Whoever is outsourcing at some point will think it is a great idea to insource and vice versa. The total market is so big, which is the one good thing about working in a large industry that you will always have room to grow despite all of these ways.

Prepared remarks (5 blocks)
Thank you, Kapil, and welcome, everyone, to the earnings call for Q4, in which we once again achieved our highest ever net profit, and this is despite the weakness in revenue. As we highlighted in the last call, one of our large customers transitioned a major model into an upgraded version in the last quarter. This change affected our supplies to this customer in Q4, and it did impact our revenue, particularly BEV revenue. The good news is that the new model production has been ramping up since March. But now, as is always our policy when talking to our shareholders, we'll begin with the challenges. So first, what's on top of mind for everyone, the tariffs announced by the U.S. administration, including on automobile and auto component imports, the details of which are obviously changing fairly dynamically. In our opinion, they will adversely impact the demand for cars and light trucks. Although we believe our competitive positioning will improve further if tariffs persist, because as a supplier to automakers globally, we may not be, we in fact are not immune to the demand and supply disruptions, but if you can look beyond the short term, I think there is also a lot of opportunity. Second, global automotive production, and in this I include every market, may see disruptions due to supply chain complexities and high dependence on China, especially for rare earth materials. In India, while we are working with the industry and the government and the Chinese Embassy to speed up the process of importing magnets from China, we're also evaluating alternate materials, including Ferrite, different grades of magnets, different technologies, as well as different supply sources. So to sum up, in a fairly confusing and uncertain time, we believe this trade war to be disruptive and adverse in the short term for the entire global auto industry. However, in the medium to long term, we expect many opportunities to emerge from this chaos. We firmly believe that many weaker players may not survive this disruption. This should lead to further consolidation in the hands of companies with strong technology moats. Indian companies like ours that can provide world-class product performance and quality, and have robust margins and healthy cash balances, should emerge from this period much stronger than before. Now, as usual, we also have some good news. We ended this year with a few large order wins, which have taken our net order book to its highest ever. And in the last week of March after the announcement of proposed auto tariffs, we received a large order for an upcoming new electric car in the U.S.
We also commercialized the new product, the steering bevel box which leverages on our strengths in forging and precision machining to develop the solution for a new application outside our traditional area of driveline. We're also planning to enter a new area, which at this stage may be where EV was in 2016. So, as AI, 3D perception, and control technologies advance and compute costs keep going down, we expect a rapid adoption of humanoid robots over the next decade. Now, coming to the numbers, as we had explained last quarter, this was expected to be a weak quarter, and our revenue and EBITDA have declined by 2% and 5% respectively, because of that model transition at one of our larger customers that I spoke about. However, we did well on net profit, which increased 10% to our highest ever level of 164 Crores. Our BEV revenue, despite this drop in revenue from a large EV customer, grew by 8% in absolute terms, and the BEV revenue share for this quarter was 35%. For the full year, like every year, we'd like to report our performance scorecard as managers to you on our 5 KRAs - financials, electrification, business development, diversification, and new product development. So I'll start with the financials. Our revenue, EBITDA, and PAT are up by 12%, 8%, and 16%, respectively, despite a lot of challenges this year. ROCE and ROE were around 18%, which is obviously lower than last year, but this is due to the capital raise or QIP that we did in September-24. Coming to our electrification performance, our BEV revenue has increased from 29% in FY 24 to 36% at the end of last year, and BEV revenue in rupee terms has grown by 38% to over 12.2 billion rupees in FY25. We got a new EV order from an existing customer, like I mentioned. It's a North American OEM of EVs. We will supply the rotor-embedded differential sub-assembly as well as the epicyclic gear train for an upcoming electric SUV. Our next KRA, business development, we added 47 billion rupees worth of new orders during the year. This came from 37 new programs, which were won and 7 new customers, which were added. Which brings me neatly to a net order book which at the end of FY25 stands at 24.2 thousand crore rupees or $2.8 billion. The EV contribution to this order book remains high. It's at 77%.
From Star Wars to CS 2025, the excitement around humanoids was palpable. Names like Optimus, Walker, Digit, Atlas have become part of common lingo now. Humanoids in our day-to-day life is closer to reality than most people agree. One estimate puts the total of <strong>10 million</strong> humanoids by 2035. It's a very important megatrend not to be missed. Sona Comstar, with its strong capabilities in gears, sensors, motors, controllers, embedded hardware and software, is uniquely positioned to ride this wave. At the heart of these humanoids are actuators which control practically all aspects of motion, linear and rotary. They also contribute to over 50% of the US$ 35,000 to 50,000 bill of material cost.
A very good day to you all. It's my pleasure to share our 4th quarter and full year results for FY25 with you. First the 4th quarter results. This was a weaker quarter compared to the 4th quarter of last year. We've clocked a revenue of <strong>868 crore</strong>s, which is a drop of 2% from Q4 of last year, whereas the underlying markets in North America, India, and Europe grew by 1%. Our BEV revenue grew by 8% to ₹294 crore, and it constituted 34% of our quarter's revenue. This quarter, we've also accounted for PLI income for the full year FY25, and going forward, we intend to do so on a quarterly basis. Our EBITDA adjusted for ESOP costs for the quarter was 240 crores, which is a drop of 6% from the last year. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 27.6%, which is a drop of 1.3% compared to fourth quarter of last year, and it's primarily on account of change in the product mix. Our profit after tax, adjusted for ESOP cost and exceptional expenses, was 170 crores, which is a growth of 10% over last year. Our PAT has grown despite lower EBITDA, and it was primarily because of the net interest income, which has come from the deployment of cash surplus and QIP proceeds. For the full financial year 2025, our revenue grew by 12% to 3,555 crores. Compared to this, the underlying light vehicle sales in our key markets of North America, India, and Europe grew by only 2%.
Our BEV revenue for the full year grew by 38% to ₹1,224 crore and BEV share of revenue increased to 36%. At the EBITDA level adjusted for ESOP costs, the growth was 9% to 1,003 crores. This is the first time we've crossed the landmark of more than 1,000 crores in EBITDA in one year. Our adjusted EBITDA margin was 28.2%, which is 60 basis points lower than the last year. While we had positive impact on the margin from the lower input prices and operating leverage, this was more than offset by a change in the product mix. Our profit after tax, adjusted for ESOP cost and exceptional expenses, grew by 19% to ₹636 crore. This brings us to the cash flow slide. So during the full year FY25, we've generated Rs. 775 crores of cash from operations, and we've deployed about Rs. 415 crores in Capex that has left us with Rs. 360 crores of free cash flows. We also raised QIP funds in September of 2024, so net off expenses, that amount is 2,370 crores. At the end of the year, we had cash and investments balance of about 2,673 crores. Part of these funds, as you may know, would be used for the acquisition of railway business from EKL.
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