Throughline · holding view Deep analysis Q4 FY26
TMPV Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Ltd · Other Q4 FY26 · concall
Pattern: sierra volume ramp up

Narrative arc: tariff shock (Q1) -> cyber wipeout + guidance cut (Q2) -> Sierra breakout + China structural (Q3) -> Q4 cash positive, FY26 EBIT landed 0.7%, breakeven cost-out program (GBP1.7bn / 3…

4 weak · 11 clean pushback across 4 of 15 Q&A turns

Focused evidence 4 of 15

Anish Gurav (follow-up) · Tata Motors IRweak

Could you also talk about Sierra volumes?

Sierra volume - we have received tremendous response when we had launched the car. The challenge has been on the supply side, particularly because of one or two suppliers, especially on the casting side. We have taken a series of corrective actions including additional suppliers. The immediate milestone for us would be to cross 10,000 and then we have plans to further increase the production. Next quarter, we should also be launching the Sierra.ev.

Binay Singh · Morgan Stanleyweak

Any update on the Range Rover EV launch timelines and what kind of pre-bookings you are seeing?

It's coming very, very soon. It will be the first of our EV launches, and we've got three reveals coming during the second half of this year. We don't have pre-bookings. We have expressions of interest, and there are 78,000 of those at the last count. I've driven it, and it is fab.

Anish Gurav · Tata Motors IRweak

How are we seeing the Chinese OEM competition increasing in Europe and UK? And what does it mean for JLR and its House of Brands?

They're definitely coming. The best plan that we have in relation to the Chinese imports is to rely on our brands, essentially to fight them where they are not. We have vehicles that superbly embody the brands, and the brands are very strong. We expect to be able to use that to operate in a space where we have at least a level of protection versus these imports.

Anish Gurav · Tata Motors IRweak

Reduction of breakeven to 300,000. We've been constantly reducing the breakeven points for the last few years. How do you plan to do this? And in some way, does it reflect our volume outlook also?

We are fundamentally looking at three areas that we are going after for the GBP 1.7 billion. First is the entire end-to-end delivered cost all the way from raw materials. We have stood up procurement as a separate vertical reporting into the Board. Second, an area which has not delivered for us is the whole warranty space. While my IPTVs are improving, quality is improving, cost of repair has shot through the roof, particularly in markets like the US. And of course, the amount of investments that we have done on IT, digital, etc., it's an area which needs to deliver productivity for us. We should start working on that and the numbers should start reflecting from the second half of this year itself.

Other Q&A (11)
Binay Singh · Morgan Stanley

What is the kind of commodity headwind that we have seen and we are likely to see and how we are thinking of passing it on? How do we see our EV volumes step up from here? And percentage of portfolio where we are getting PLI?

Shailesh Chandra: On commodity headwind, we see a nine to 12-month kind of a picture. The impact has been somewhere between 5% to 6% of revenue, definitely upwards of 5%. We have not been able to pass on this to the market. There have been intense cost reduction efforts, which has yielded us about 2% of revenue reduction. We also took about 0.5% increase in April. There will be still residual stress of commodity impact. We are actively considering some level of price increase in the coming month, but not decided as yet. On EV volume run rate, in quarter four, we were at 27,000 roughly. We are consistently hitting a monthly run rate of 9,000. Hopefully, we'll start ramping up further beyond 10,000 from this month onwards. Dhiman Gupta: Almost two-third of our volumes last year was accredited with PLI. So that accounts for about Rs. 1,000 Cr accruals.

Binay Singh · Morgan Stanley

Anything you would want to mention on the demand conditions you see in your key geographies?

I think North America as a region is still one where we have growth potential. Our brands resonate really well there. The UK and Europe are stable. And China, as everybody knows, has been through a very, very difficult period, but we have readjusted our retailer numbers and also our retailer stock levels, and we see things at least in the short term, stabilizing. The biggest issues that we're facing are more on the supply side as a result of the conflict in the Middle East. Demand for the moment is slightly a secondary concern.

Anish Gurav · Tata Motors IR

Any comments on, with the expected fuel price increases we are seeing in Europe, are we seeing any shift in demand for EVs? Does it have any implications on our investments or launch timelines for EVs?

Generally, across the market, there has been an increase in Internet search for EV vehicles over ICE vehicles. Our consumer base, which is more in the high net worth individuals, they are less concerned than the average about the actual price at the pumps. I don't think that's having a direct and significant impact on our demand. Launch timelines, no. The geopolitical split between markets means that we will have to rebalance our investments over time to ensure that we have ICE offerings globally for longer. We are going to need to ensure that we can offer both ICE, PHEV, MHEV and BEV offerings in parallel for longer than we originally thought we would need to.

Kapil · Nuvama

India EVs, can you talk about the demand environment? And how long-term are you thinking of EV profitability versus ICE?

Demand for EVs has significantly grown since the Middle East crisis started. The jump is nearly 25% to 30%. Extremely strong demand. The issue is supply. From this month onwards, we are already trying to increase the production by additional 10%. On long-term profitability: the trajectory of cost as far as ICE vehicles are concerned is inflationary because of the impending emission regulations, whereas the trend of cost is significantly deflationary in EVs. The combination of these two trends will not only give opportunity for EVs to be completely at price parity, but also from a profitability perspective, it will keep growing stronger.

Anish Gurav · Tata Motors IR

The partnership with Freelander with CJLR, are we planning to take Freelander globally? And what will be the revenue streams from JLR from Freelander?

Freelander is our JLR brand, and it has been licensed to Chery for manufacturing their car. It is Chery's car other than the design aspect, which we are involved in. It is going to be first sold in China, and then they'll have to make up their mind where they want to go thereafter. For our revenue stream, the main one is royalty for the brand that we have given to them. The brand is still owned by JLR. Another piece that will come through is that CJLR utilization and the toll conversion will be the second revenue stream as 50% of that does come through.

Binay Singh · Morgan Stanley

JLR ASPs trended down quarter-on-quarter, while the share of RR and Defender went up. Also gross margins went down quarter-on-quarter. And some color on inventory levels of JLR across the geographies.

Richard Molyneux: ASPs were down marginally Q-over-Q. In sterling terms I think it was about GBP76,000 to about GBP72,000. Biggest individual elements in there are sterling, which got stronger against the dollar quarter-over-quarter. Gross margins went down quarter-over-quarter. That is a little bit to do with higher VME levels and also some charges that we had to take within the warranty space. Inventory is quite tight. We took retailer stocks down, particularly in the US. JLR inventory is in a better place at the end of FY26 than it was at the end of FY25. PB Balaji: Philosophically, being a luxury OEM, we would want to keep our inventories tight, and you should expect that to continue going forward as well.

Anish Gurav · Tata Motors IR

What is the kind of inventory levels we are seeing in India? And given the demand of some of the models, what's the kind of waiting period you are seeing?

On dealer inventory, we are right now at about 20 day level. Waiting periods would be ranging from four to eight weeks. In general, I'm saying for certain models, of course, like Sierra and all, it is quite high and so is for certain EVs. On industry growth: I am pegging the number around 10% because the first half of last financial year was a low base. So significant headroom in terms of what can impact the consumer sentiment. As far as Tata Motors is concerned, I think this year is going to be more a supply challenge for us rather than demand.

Nishit · Analyst

Could you clarify whether the 5% to 7% increase in commodity prices are already in our P&L in Q4, or is it yet to come? And how should we look at the commodity headwinds going forward?

Shailesh Chandra: I'm just giving you a ballpark number of 5% to 6%. I would say 2%, 2.5% would have come last year and significant increase in this quarter, which is expected beyond that. So roughly, you can imagine 3.5% to 4% increase, which we are expecting this quarter. Dhiman Gupta: We had announced a 0.5% price increase in April. We'll keep monitoring the situation and see we can keep taking any measured price increases. Cost reduction programs are very, very robust. Our volumes have gone up by 50%, and there's been a massive effort in scaling up our productions. As the volumes kind of normalize, we'll be able to optimize and further benefit from fixed cost leverage.

Anish Gurav · Tata Motors IR

You spoke about VME, how are we looking at VME going into FY27?

Generally, it is relatively stable. I think it remains to be seen in China, how the industry absorbs the extra 10% luxury tax that was implemented in the middle of last year. But we are not seeing it rise considerably from the levels that we saw at the back end of the last financial year.

Raghu · Analyst

Is there a decline in other expenses for JLR year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter?

Yes, there is. You'll find that the majority of that is actually exchange-related in terms of a reasonably good hedge gain this year versus the opposite effect last year. There is some central cost reductions in terms of very centralized expenses, but the biggest element within there is exchange.

Anish Gurav · Tata Motors IR

Shailesh, if you could talk about exports and what's the outlook for FY27?

Last year, we had a 4 times jump in exports to 10,000 plus units. And this year also, we are targeting anywhere between 70% to 100% kind of a growth, depending on how we are able to ramp up our production and then further add to our portfolio in South African market.

Prepared remarks (5 blocks)
A story of two halves for the India business - started with muted volumes in H1 but a very strong comeback in H2 where we were consistently ranked number two in Vahan market share on the back of demand for our popular brands and the new launches. On the way, Punch also emerged as the fastest growing SUV to reach 6 lakh cars on road in four years. Moving on to JLR. A difficult year indeed for JLR, but one which also demonstrated the continued resilience of its House of Brands as it realizes and it prepares itself for adding exciting new products in its portfolio over the next 12 to 18 months, starting with Range Rover EV. Consolidated financials - with the normalcy of production at JLR, all the consolidated financial metrics are looking up. Revenue comes in at ~Rs. <strong>105,000 Cr</strong> for the quarter, up 7% year-on-year on the back of strong India growth story and the currency appreciation. PBT before exceptionals for the quarter was Rs. 7,200 Cr and FCF was Rs. 11,000 Cr, as we managed to unwind some of the working capital reversals that we saw in Q2 and Q3.
For the full year, all the metrics remained down as it was impacted due to two lost quarters of production at JLR. PBT for the year was Rs. <strong>2,500 Cr</strong>, and this excludes about Rs. 4,100 Cr of exceptionals for cyber, the labor code impact in India and the stamp duty charges for the demerger. The Board has approved a dividend of Rs. 3 per share. The cash outflow for the dividends will be about Rs. 1,100 Cr. The net debt for the year ending March 2026 was Rs. 30,000 Cr, largely representing the Rs. 25,000 Cr of consol cash burn and the Rs. 2,200 Cr of dividends that we paid last year. PV remains cash positive at about Rs. 7,000 Cr, while the net debt at JLR stood at Rs. 33,000 Cr.
So as expected, we did recover strongly in Q4. We had 95,000 wholesales, revenue of nearly GBP<strong>7 billion</strong> and EBIT of 9.2%. That's only a little lower than our bumper Q4 last year, and is actually the same EBIT level as we achieved two years ago. This performance allowed us to achieve our external guidance for the year. So we ended up with 0.7% EBIT, within our 0% to 2% guidance. And we ended up at the better end of our cash guidance, with full year cash loss just over GBP2.2 billion versus a minus GBP2.2 billion to minus GBP2.5 billion range. We've consolidated these to five [missions], launch excellence to drive the success of the products I just described; three focused on our cost base to build back margins, and then the foundational work on our processes, data and systems to enable speed and efficiency. Together, we're targeting GBP1.7 billion of savings over two years to bring our breakeven volume back down towards 300,000 units a year.
Talking about TMPV performance, which is FY26, it has been a defining year for Tata Motors PV. We closed the year at a record 6.42 lakh units, delivering over 15% growth year-on-year, nearly twice the pace of the broader industry, which grew at 8%. Q4 saw record volumes exceeding 2 lakh units for the first time with 37% growth year-on-year. We consolidated our position as the number two player in the domestic market basis Vahan data with a market share crossing 14%. In particular, Nexon and Punch held number one and number three spots, respectively, among all models in the industry during H2 FY26. Coming to EVs, we recorded our best ever performance with 92,000 units sold, 43% year-on-year growth. We sustained our market leadership in EVs with over 40% share despite a significantly more competitive landscape. CNG has also been a core driver of our growth in volumes.
CNG volumes are now 27% of our portfolio in the past year, and our growth in CNG outpaces the industry as we sold over 1.7 lakh CNG vehicles. TMPV will look to deliver industry-beating growth in FY27. For the coming year, key levers for our profitability will be improving mix, operating leverage and cost reduction. Given the commodity cost headwinds that we are seeing currently due to the West Asia crisis, intense cost reduction actions will be crucial to offset some of the bottom-line impact.
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