Throughline · holding view Deep analysis Q3 FY26
VEDL Vedanta Limited · Other Q3 FY26 · concall
Pattern: power equipment tie ups

Refused to commit on coppertech s1 filing vrl.

1 deflection · 4 weak · 23 clean pushback across 5 of 28 Q&A turns

Focused evidence 5 of 28

Dhananjai Bagrodia · Alchemy Capitalweak

For the 10-12 GW power plan, do we have tie-ups to reach from 5 to 10 gigawatt? Is equipment available?

We are keeping all options open. Yes, there is definitely capacity constraint from Indian manufacturers, but we are exploring India as well as outside India - all who can supply us, and we have good discussions going on. Maybe at the right time we will come out with concrete numbers.

Ashish Kejriwal · Nuvama Wealth Managementweak

On steel - we have not heard anything on getting clearances for the expansion from 1.5 to 3 million tons. Every quarter or half-yearly we keep postponing the final date. Will the 1.5 to 3 mt approval come from the government in this year?

We have completed the acquisition of 913 hectares of forest land that we have already handed over to the forest department. The team on the ground has been engaging with MoEFCC in terms of what else we would need to comply with. I do not want to pre-empt, but we are most hopeful that this would happen soon. Once we get the approvals, we will start to accelerate the project completion.

Ritesh Shah · Investecweak

Follow-up on balance 150 million and interest payment ~270-280 - the idea is to still fund it via dividends?

In Q4 Jan-to-March, almost 150 million is ICL. There is no other debt due in Q4. So 150 million ICL plus 125 million interest = overall 275 million. We fund it via a mix of refinancing and repayment. Dividend is a board matter; we have in the past been committing about 6% dividend yield and what we have paid in current fiscal is almost 3%. Dividend in Q4 is likely subject to board approvals; in that case the entire dues ~275 million in Q4 will be addressed through dividend.

Ritesh Shah · Investecdeflection

How should we read into confidential filing for CopperTech Metals? Reading it from the VRL debt profile and the recent OFS in Hindustan Zinc - how should we look at promoters holding into Vedanta and Vedanta holding into Hindustan Zinc - broader top-down thought process?

Deshnee: From an overall CopperTech point of view, there is no link with Vedanta Limited and anything below VRL. This is a separate entity sitting at Vedanta Resources Limited as we told the market. That entity today will be holding 80% of our KCM interest. We have filed an S1 and are going through the process with the SEC in terms of next steps. There is no link. Charanjit: We are in the silent period with respect to having done the S1 filing, so we cannot speak anything until the process is continuing.

Ritesh Shah · Investecweak

On accumulated losses, unabsorbed depreciation, tax efficiency - is there a way you can help us appreciate these variables?

That work is underway. Over the next eight weeks/two months, recasting multiple balance sheets for each of the resulting entities, allocation finalization, structure of management in place - all will be worked out. Allow us almost two months' time and you will have all the numbers. I can confirm demerger becomes an opportunity across areas. Take an example - the OFS right now in play, value is almost Rs.3,000 crores, and that also gives the reason to fast-track the entire de-leveraging. Our intent is to make oil and gas business debt-free, and our iron steel business almost debt-free. Many of these structurings will be a Vedanta opportunity from a taxation viewpoint and otherwise.

Other Q&A (23)
Amit Lahoti · Emkay Global

On demerger - as we have classified the businesses as discontinued operations in the financial statements, is it fair to say that all the approvals and name transfer on the assets are in place for demerger to go through?

The entire demerger accounting follows the Indian accounting regulation, specifically IND AS 103 and 105. Under that guidelines, in case the demerger is more likely over the next 12-months, then you have to account the way we have accounted. We have to work through a couple of CPs and other statutory approvals. But as earlier mentioned, we are committed and confident making the 1st April as the date on which demerger becomes effective.

Amit Lahoti · Emkay Global

On aluminum hot metal cost - alumina cost is still at $800 per ton, the cost of alumina production is higher than the market price (~$300 international). What would be the mix of captive production versus imports going ahead? Is there any incentive for increasing captive production at all?

On captive mix, as we are ramping up Lanjigarh, we did about 800 KT in Q3, and expecting 900 KT plus in Q4. That means 60% captive in Q3, 70% in Q4, and going forward Q1/Q2 should be 80%. On alumina cost at $800, on bought-out alumina, in the pricing month we lock in the LME. With LME in surge, we are not getting the benefit we had intended. Q3 LME was closer to 2,600, now 2,800, and as we speak closer to 3,100. Last time we said you will see a $50 lower cost QoQ; what we are seeing is $20-$22 in Q3, maybe $25 in Q4. Probably as we go into Q1, you will see a cost sub-$750. But the main driver remains captive, and we will be closer to 80% as we go into Q1.

Amit Lahoti · Emkay Global

Follow up - what is the contract as a percentage of your total alumina consumption that is related to LME price of aluminum?

Be it API, be it LME, whenever we are buying, whenever that material is getting priced, we lock in the LME. So that has been our policy.

Dhananjai Bagrodia · Alchemy Capital

On aluminum capacities for production - how much do we see the 600-plus KT additions, let us say in a year from today?

Rajiv: We are just now at 20-pots in the new 435 KT smelter at BALCO. We intend to increase to about 1 lakh ton by this March end, and then next three to six months we will ramp up the rest of the pots. There are 304 pots divided into four zones; the first set of 76 pots would be online by March and the rest of the numbers would be on in the next three to six months. Deshnee: We will get to 2.8 million tons of aluminum post our BALCO project ramp up. The team is working on debottlenecking exercises to close the gap from 2.8 to 3 million tons, which is what we have guided over the next 18-months. Lanjigarh refining will get up to 5 million tons - we are already close to those run rates. In addition there is a margin uplift via VAP projects at both BALCO and Jharsuguda.

Dhananjai Bagrodia · Alchemy Capital

In power, where do we see capacity in a couple of years or three years - how do we see that ramping up?

Rajinder: This year we have commissioned around 1.6 gigawatt of capacity at Athena, Meenakshi. Total capacity as of now up and running is 4.2 gigawatt. This is expected to go to around 4.8 gigawatt by end of H1 of next year. As we demerge, we really want to be a growth company and ride India's growth story on energy. So we have a plan in place to put additional 10 to 12 gigawatt. This company will be on continuous growth chart for the next five to seven years as India needs more thermal power capacity. Deshnee: The focus right now is to get us to the 5 gigawatts as soon as possible, and to tie up most of that into contracts as we did with Athena and Meenakshi PPAs.

Sumangal Nevatia · Kotak Securities

On hedging volumes - what proportion is hedged for 4th Quarter and mainly for FY27 across divisions (aluminum, silver, zinc)? And what is our hedging policy/strategy?

Hedging policy is dynamic; we map the market impact on real-time basis with a global expert at Vedanta advising the Vedanta Risk Committee. Silver hedging for current fiscal is about 68 tons (~10% volume); additionally about 50 tons (~7%) for next year - total 17% hedged at avg ~$45 per troy ounce. Zinc hedging is almost 53KT each for Q4 and next year, so ~100KT, ~9% for full fiscal, at avg price ~$3,000 per ton across Q4 and next year. Aluminum: 8% (~185 KT) for Q4, and ~490 KT (18%) for next year, net-net 26% quantity hedged for aluminum at avg ~2,650. In summary, about 8% for current fiscal and 18% for next year hedged.

Sumangal Nevatia · Kotak Securities

Can you give FY27 hedge prices - average price for 4th Quarter and FY27 specifically?

For next year the numbers are slightly higher. Silver at about $55 per ton (sic, troy ounce) with quantity 48 tons exactly. Zinc 43 tons at price ~3,072. Aluminum about 18% (~490 KT) at pricing of ~2,625.

Sumangal Nevatia · Kotak Securities

On aluminum cost - what changes are we expecting over the next one or two quarters? And from BALCO smelter, what ramp-up schedule can we expect over FY27, what utilization could we achieve in FY27 on an average?

In Q3 hot metal cost reduced by 8% compared to last quarter. While answering alumina, I had guided next quarter alumina cost will be lower ~$25. We have planned maintenance of one of our bigger power plant units and there you will see a higher cost - both will offset each other. So next quarter, broadly costs will remain flat at constant LME, maybe half a percent here and there due to inflationary pressure on carbon commodity. Coming to Quarter 1, with ramp-up in Lanjigarh and bauxite expected from Sijimali, we believe we should have a $50-$60 cost reduction compared to where we are today.

Sumangal Nevatia · Kotak Securities

Any new deleveraging targets for both Vedanta Resources and India given the cash flows and commodity prices?

Overall what we committed last time at VRL level - almost half a billion deleveraging, and given the current OFS in play, another half a billion. So roughly about 0.8 to 1 billion will be deleveraging across the group in the current fiscal. With that, VEDL India debt will come down by almost 0.7 billion in the current year and almost 300 at VRL level. At Vedanta India we track debt-to-EBITDA - compared to 1.23x as of 3rd Quarter, we will be closing the fiscal at about 1x, the lowest in the last many years.

Ashish Kejriwal · Nuvama Wealth Management

On alumina - you mentioned we try to purchase alumina at a percentage to LME. Since our alumina production is increasing, do you think for FY27 we cannot go for spot basis because as a percentage of LME we are not getting any benefit? In fact Q3 purchase alumina cost seems higher than Q2 and will continue to go higher because of aluminum price. Cannot we go for spot purchase or is it not available?

Last time I had said we had some LME-linked contracts. As we go into the next financial, most of our contracts are API-linked - that is the alumina price index, not LME-linked. In the pricing month we lock in be it API, be it LME. There is a 45-to-60-day lag. In a LME rising scenario (~10% rising two months) you see that gap. If the LME was constant you could have seen almost a $40-45 reduction in alumina this and next quarter. So at some point in constant LME you will see that big gain. But LME-linked contracts are almost not there for the next financial year, very small quantity.

Ashish Kejriwal · Nuvama Wealth Management

Is it safe to say that from Q1 FY27, when we expect $50-$60 fall in hot metal cost, the entire/maximum alumina purchase is API-linked, not aluminum price-linked?

Anup: Yes, that is the official point. On a constant LME (something I mentioned), keep that in mind. Deshnee: Price is API-linked. Consumption in the month would be LME-linked. That is just the way we account for it.

Ashish Kejriwal · Nuvama Wealth Management

On Kuraloi coal block (which we are saying we will start in Q4) - have we received all regulatory clearances? And on Sijimali, we have received stage-I forest clearance but need local body clearances - how comfortable are we starting before monsoon this year?

On Kuraloi, we got FC stage-I on 12 May 2025 and FC stage-II on 12 January 2026, and CTO and approvals (mine lease opening, escrow account opening) are running in parallel. We have already put in the MDO, the team is on ground, we have shifted offices in that area, and we are very hopeful of commissioning the Kuraloi mine by Q4 FY26 (as guided). On Sijimali, FC stage-I was obtained on 31-12-2025, EC expected by February '26; we are hopeful of operationalising in the monsoon month. On Ghogharpalli, mine plan already approved, public hearing completed in January '26, EC expected by May '26, FC by July '26 - we will stick to that commissioning. We are in control and last leg of approvals on Kuraloi and operationalising Sijimali by Q1 FY27.

Pallav Agarwal · Antique Stock Broking

On timeline - we are still showing power business as under continuing operations. Are you confident that we should be able to get all requisite approvals before March/April for the full demerger to be effective?

The bigger demerger (four businesses) NCLT order came on December 16th, which falls within Q3 (October-December). The NCLT order for power in fact came on January 9th, an event post balance sheet date, hence power is part of operations in continuation. In terms of approvals, we intend to demerge all four companies on the same day with target right now being 1st April. They will be all co-terminus on the same day.

Pallav Agarwal · Antique Stock Broking

From the perspective of valuing the individual businesses, how do we apportion the portion of debt among the various businesses to get a proper picture of the valuation?

Management is focused on carving out multiple balance sheets and debt allocation. When we went to the banker seeking NOC, debt allocation was broadly aligned with bankers as a precondition for granting NOC for demerger approval. Broadly the net debt in Vedanta India consol at about 6.7 billion gets apportioned in the ratio of assets each entity will carry post demerger. One more dimension is each entity's cash generation and debt servicing capability. In summary, a significant portion of debt out of 6.7 billion will go to aluminum, some to power and the remainder Vedanta. Oil & gas post demerger will practically be debt-free and a very small debt in iron and steel. By end of this March, recasted balance sheets, P&L and debt allocation will be finalized.

Pallav Agarwal · Antique Stock Broking

On oil and gas - we are adding some reserves but production continues to decline. With new fields getting added, is there some probability that this can increase going ahead?

The main reason volumes are not coming to the level expected is delay of the ASP project commissioning - enhanced oil recovery, one of the largest in the world and very expensive technology. We are about to finalize commissioning and pick up first volumes in the next three months. Tight oil reserves are being converted - intensive recompletion strategy and new drilling will pick up from existing 8,000 to 15,000. These two buckets will stabilize the decline towards sustainable production and slowly picking up an increase towards 90,000. We discovered confirmed reserves on the largest scale in offshore shallow Ambe - that project will be commissioned and start up in FY27 Q4 with first stable production rate around 15,000 in March next year. On the Northeast biggest prospect SP-I, we are in continual delay; we hope to commission end of this March and then drill two to three wells which will discover potential volumes of up to 100 million reserves. We have additional projects - heavy oil Rajasthan north, infill on south satellite fields, east coast onshore to offshore drilling that may increase reserves by 15 million additionally. We expect next year to stabilize and grow to at least 90,000, and year after the year, reaching our ultimate target of 150,000.

Pallav Agarwal · Antique Stock Broking

As part of the demerger, there is some guarantee to be provided for the arbitration dispute. Would that be at the Vedanta Limited primary company level, or at the oil company level?

That has already been dealt with at the current structure. When we demerge that will be without the obligation sitting at the entity level.

Ritesh Shah · Investec

We had certain outgo commitment with respect to interest in ICL. Any update on that? We were expecting some payout to fund that - has it been taken care of, and how was it funded?

All of the ICL is on track as committed/contracted. Out of a billion ICL advanced in 2019, 417 million remains outstanding; practically 200 million is due on Jan 31, balance 200 million sometime in Q1 (end of May). Out of 200 million ICL due in January, 50 million we have prepaid in December, so 150 million now remains pending in January and balance 200 million in May. The entire ICL 350 million will be paid on time.

Ritesh Shah · Investec

I did not get the Rs.3,000 crores number, sir.

The OFS for zinc right now - we are looking at almost 1.1% as bidding both by retail and institution got closed at 230. It is about a 1.1% stake sale and that is Rs.3,000 crores broadly. The entire amount will be used for de-leveraging.

Ritesh Shah · Investec

In notes-to-accounts, we have mentioned a claim of $512 million. How should we look into this - under which entity will this fall and how should we look at this variable going forward?

Ajay: That is an ongoing matter with the MoPNG. It pertains to oil and gas, and the matter is in arbitration. In fact, all the judgments in the past have been in Vedanta's favor. In our assessment, that matter is a medium to low risk. Arbitration is in play; next date of hearing is sometimes middle of March. Any accounting implications, gain or otherwise, will go in oil and gas business post-demerger. Deshnee: It is ring fenced to oil and gas, whatever the decision.

Rashi Chopra · Citigroup

On Zinc International - how do we think about the cost in Q4 and next year?

Current cost levels have become higher for a couple of reasons. As we continue to do the waste stripping in the mine, we move some of those costs from capital into OPEX. Exchange rate in South Africa has not worked in our favor, contributing to dollar cost movements. We also have slightly higher TCRCs QoQ. Although Gamsberg planted very well at 50,000 in this quarter, our Black Mountain mine, because of the deep decline, is coming to end of its life - without Black Mountain tons and associated copper and silver byproduct, that has affected the overall cost structure. A good cost structure post ramp up of our Gamsberg project should be in the range of $1,100 to $1,200 per ton. That will be patchy as we ramp up and with headwinds from TCRCs and waste stripping moving into cost.

Rashi Chopra · Citigroup

On interest cost - you mentioned Q4 balance interest payment is ~$125 million. Is that $400 million for FY27 and FY28?

From a VRL viewpoint - on the VRL requirement on maturities (principal and interest) for next fiscal: interest is almost 450 million for next fiscal at VRL on fully yearly basis. Principal: actual debt is 450 and ICL 200, so 650. Total 650 + 450 = ~1.1 billion. Debt servicing has two sources of cash for VRL - brand fee (~400 to 450) and the remainder - even if you pay 5% or lesser dividend, ~650. Net-net, as we have been saying, Vedanta Resources will be self-sufficient, self-funded with a 5% dividend and routine brand fee going forward.

Rashi Chopra · Citigroup

On hedging - what was the aluminum hedge volume for this quarter and for next year?

Current quarter is almost 185 KT at a price of 2,640. For next year FY27, about 490 KT at pricing 2,625. So 185 and 490 KT next year, pricing roughly 2,625 on both cases.

Rashi Chopra · Citigroup

Captive alumina target for Q1 FY27 is 80%, right?

Yes, Rashi, that is right.

Prepared remarks (5 blocks)
Good Evening, Everyone and Welcome to Vedanta Limited Q3FY26 Earnings Call. On behalf of team Vedanta, I thank you all for joining us today. I hope you had the chance to look at a Press Release, Earning Presentation and the Detailed Financial Statements. On this call from Vedanta's side, we have with us Ms. Deshnee Naidoo - Group CEO, Mr. Arun Misra - Executive Director, Mr. Ajay Goel - Group CFO, Mr. Rajiv Kumar - CEO, Aluminum Business, Mr. Anup Agarwal - CFO, Aluminum Business, Mr. Jasmin Sahurity - COO, Oil & Gas and Mr. Rajinder Singh Ahuja - CEO, Power Business. We will begin with the Business and Operational Update from Ms. Naidoo, followed by an Update on the Financial Highlights by Mr. Ajay Goel and thereafter, we will open the lines for Q&A. Deshnee Naidoo: Thank you, Charanjit. Good evening, everyone. It is a privilege to address you once again as I present our performance for the 3rd Quarter of FY26, a period marked by record operational achievements and key transformational milestones in Vedanta's 2.0 journey. We achieved our best ever quarterly EBITDA of Rs.<strong>15,171 crore</strong>s, while also recording our lifetime high revenue and PAT of Rs.45,899 crores and Rs.7,807 crores respectively. Notably, two of our businesses delivered their best ever EBITDA, resulting in a consolidated EBITDA margin of 41%, a historic high for Vedanta, representing a year-on-year increase of 629 basis points. Quarter 3 has truly been one for the books, with Vedanta recording significant milestones on all fronts -- operational, capital-related and corporate actions. Firstly, the Key Operational Milestones: We delivered our highest ever quarterly and nine-months alumina and aluminum production, with quarterly alumina output rising 57% year-on-year to around 0.8 million tons.
We are well on track to deliver our full-year volume guidance of around <strong>3 million</strong> tons, a new record in Vedanta's history. Our Aluminum business recorded its lowest hot metal cost of the last 17-quarters at $1,674 per ton, better than our full-year guidance of $1,700 per ton to $1,750 per ton. This improvement is primarily driven by the $110 per ton quarter-on-quarter decline in power cost after the maintenance of our captive power plant in Quarter 2. HZL recorded its highest ever mined metal and refined metal output, with both items registering a 7 to 9% increase quarter-on-quarter and 4% year-on-year. Like our Aluminum business, Hindustan Zinc also delivered its five-year lowest production cost at $940/MT, 6% better than our cost guidance for FY26. At our Zinc International business, the Gamsberg mine delivered its best ever recovery at around 85% in December, with the 3rd Quarter production surging 28% year-on-year and nine-months volumes increasing 38% year-on-year, in line with our full-year guidance. Our Power business is on track to deliver an outperformance against our annual guidance, with Athena recording a PLF of 72% in Quarter 3, which is a 11% increase over guidance. Our Iron and Steel businesses delivered a record nine-month pig iron production of 680,000 tons, that is an 11% increase year-on-year, and billet production of 775,000 tons, 13% increase year-on-year. In Oil & Gas, our average gross production stood at 85,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Owing to various interventions across our wells, the decline in the rate of base volume at our existing oil fields has dropped from 18% to 13% over the first nine months. These achievements were aided by strategic capacity additions and the completion of de-bottlenecking initiatives, reflecting our strong commitment towards achieving the guidance given at the beginning of the year. Again, these milestones have been achieved across all five businesses.
1. The addition of the <strong>1.5 million</strong> tons per annum, Train 2, at our refinery in Lanjigarh, thereby taking our total aluminum production capacity to 5 million tons per annum. 2. The production of first metal from the new 435,000 tons per annum BALCO smelter. 3. Third, is the commissioning of the first 125,000 tons per annum billet line as part of the 250,000 tons per annum project at the Jharsuguda plant. Zinc India business commissioned its 160,000 ton per annum Debari roaster and completed the de-bottlenecking projects at Chanderia and Dariba smelters, which added 21,000 tons per annum to our refined zinc capacity. The Gamsberg Phase-II project at our Zinc International business is almost 90% complete, with commissioning being targeted in the next quarter. The Power business added 1.3 GW of new capacity at Meenakshi and Athena power plants. Currently, Meenakshi has entered into a short and medium-term supply contract for 750 MW capacity, while Athena has signed supply contracts for its entire first unit of 600 MW. Our Ferrochrome business reported the start of Kalarangiatta mines and the approval for the enhanced production from Ostapal Mine up to 530,000 tons.
At our Mangala oil field, one of the large ASP implementations globally on a single field is reaching its final stage of commissioning and is expected to open up additional reserves of <strong>50 million</strong> barrels for the company. We have made, as you would have seen, a gas discovery in the Ambe field awarded to us in September 2022 through the competitive bidding process. Evaluations are underway to assess the potential of the discovery. In the initial nine months, we invested around $1.3 billion in growth CAPEX in various projects across all five businesses and we are on track to achieve our full year guidance of around $1.7 billion. On the Corporate Action Front, a significant milestone in this quarter has been the approval of our demerger scheme. This marks a defining moment in our journey, one that empowers our businesses to sharpen the strategies, strengthen the balance sheets and accelerate growth with the aim of unlocking shareholder value. On the 16th of December, the NCLT approved our demerger scheme, and on the 21st of January, we received the certified copy of NCLT's order. We are now progressing towards implementation and targeting 1st of April as the effective date with listings in the same quarter.
At Vedanta, responsible growth is at the heart of everything we do. The safety of our workforce remains our highest priority. On a year-to-date basis, our metrics do show an improvement, with our loss-time injuries down 20% and our TRIFR down 13%. Sadly, we lost three of our colleagues in this year, ending Quarter 3. Vedanta Aluminum once again demonstrated its ESG Leadership, securing a Second Rank in the S&P Corporate Sustainability Assessment for the Third Consecutive Year. Our oil & gas business made a remarkable debut in its very first participation in the S&P assessment, ranking in the top five companies globally in the oil & gas upstream and integrated sector and emerging as the highest scorer in India. In the CDP ratings, Vedanta maintained a strong climate score of B, while our water rating improved from B to A-. Reaffirming our unwavering commitment to inclusive growth, we continued our initiatives of empowering communities with investments of around Rs.268 crores in the initial nine months of FY26 towards various CSR initiatives that positively impacted over 5.5 million lives. To summarize, Quarter 3 is registered as a landmark quarter in Vedanta's history. The company recorded its lifetime best Revenue, EBITDA, and PAT on the back of expanded volumes and sustained cost optimization across all businesses alongside improvement in metal prices.
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