Throughline

Guidance ledger · Q4 FY26

Hindalco Industries HINDALCO

5 revisions on record · 0 lowered · 3 raised — the strikethrough is what management used to say

mixed guidance posture · shifted across quarters

Holding view → · latest concall · The pulse

↑ raised Novelis FY26 cost savings exit run-rate Q4 FY25 → Q4 FY26
$75 million (April 2025 baseline) → $200 million ($75m → $100m Q1 → $125m Q2 → $150m Q3 → $200m Q4)
“that run rate is now $200 million as we accelerate all cost efficiency initiatives”
↑ raised Novelis 3-year structural cost reduction program Q4 FY25 → Q4 FY26
$600/ton long-term, $300 million by FY28 exit (Q4FY25-Q3FY26 framing) → $350 million to $400 million by FY28 exit
“we remain committed to our 3-year goal of permanently reducing our cost structure by $350 million to $400 million by FY 28 exit”
↑ raised Copper EBITDA quarterly anchor (forward guide) Q4 FY25 → Q4 FY26
INR 600 cr / quarter (held Q4FY25 through Q3FY26) → INR 600-700 cr / quarter ex-Q1FY27 windfall
“I'm not going to stick my neck out to Q2 and Q3. I would still go back to the 600, 700 per quarter there”
→ narrowed Consol peak net debt Q4 FY25 → Q4 FY26
Not quantified absolute, only net-debt-to-EBITDA below 2x (Q4FY25-Q3FY26) → INR 80,000 crores to INR 90,000 crores over the next 2 years
“So consolidated net debt peak should be between INR80,000 crores and INR90,000 crores over the next 2 years”
→ narrowed FY27 India capex envelope Q4 FY25 → Q4 FY26
Not specified (Q4FY25-Q3FY26 only had project lists) → INR 12,000 crores
“In FY 27, the India capex will be about INR12,000 crores, and the Novelis capex will be between, I think, Dev has already announced on the call about 2.3 billion to 2.4 billion, largely Bay Minette”

Method. Revisions come from management's own stated numbers, compared quarter over quarter across the covered concalls; each carries the verbatim quote. “No revisions” can also mean guidance too vague to pin down — see the posture chip above. Not investment advice.