INR600cr copper anchor formally walked-down as INR907cr record print emerges.

On the FY27 hedges - the currency 14% hedged at INR 90 - is this broadly the right understanding when we say that half of the aluminium hedges, the dollar is fixed, currency is fixed, and half will be at spot currency rate for the 30%?

Sorry, Sumangal, so in FY27, I'm just going to repeat, we have 29% hedged at $3,013. And the currency, we are 14% hedged at INR 90.13. The hedges are done for the commodity and the currency separately.

And the currency is full India level or only aluminium?

No, it's at the India level because it's a Rupee. But it's with the hedge accounting, it will be towards the aluminium sales. It won't be applied towards copper.

On aluminium cost of production outlook for coming quarters? And on coal mines given commissioning is close, possible to share what sort of volumes you expect in FY27, FY28 from captive coal?

So on the cost first. In Q4, the costs were up 2.5%, 2.4% versus Q3. And in Q4, we were just starting to see the impact of the war. So I think in Q1, we are anticipating a 5% increase over Q4, and the majority is driven by furnace oil. Furnace oil prices have really gone up high, followed by CP coke and pitch, but furnace oil being the biggest one. The coal prices are more or less still under control. So we think that Q1, we are going to see about a 5% inflation in cost versus Q4. On the coal mines, we did the box cut of Bandha, but it's a very high strip ratio, so you're going to see first coal only in FY 28. Chakla, we are expecting to box cut in the next 2 months and the first coal may start to come from Q4 itself.

So '27 also given it is back ended, very minimal incremental volumes from captive coal, right?

That's correct. You're going to see meaningful coal starting to come in only in FY 28. And that too Chakla will be the main one because Bandha has a high box, high strip ratio. It will take us a while to ramp up the production there.

For the Aditya Refinery coming up, is the margins completely linked to the index alumina prices? At current spot levels around $300, what sort of margins do we expect from a thumb rule perspective from specialty alumina?

No, it's nothing to do with the specialty alumina business, there are two bits of it. Some part of it is linked to the index, some part, which is especially the very high value-added VAPs are not linked to it at all. So, in our specialty business, probably roughly 50% is index-linked and 50% is value-added, which is not linked to the index. So as the precipitated hybrid project comes in and other, slowly, our plan is to move the specialty business completely away from the index-linked business.

Copper EBITDA rose sharply Q-on-Q, and you highlighted higher sulfuric acid prices. Sulfuric acid prices have gone parabolic. Does Q4 reflect the entire surge in sulfuric acid realizations? Or should more of it come through over the next 2 quarters?

So, Pinakin, the sulfur prices are up largely because of the conflict in the Middle East. So Q1 prices are looking slightly higher than Q4 as well. But I wanted to caution that the moment any Strait of Hormuz opening or thing comes, then you will have to see there will be a correction in the sulfur prices because they're really high right now.

So is it fair to say the consol capex should broadly remain in the INR30,000 crores range for the next few years? Or will the pickup in India capex still be lower than where Novelis capex is today?

India capex, Pinakin, INR 12,000 crores this year, next year will be, I don't know, INR 15,000 crores to INR17,000 crores, but it's not going to be at the same level as Bay Minette was. So, I do think the consol capex of the two will be lower.

Could you tell us a little bit about the TC/RCs?

Yes, the spot TC/RCs are running at negative $0.21, like negative $100 right now. And that's largely because the supply and demand is completely out of skew. There's a shutdown or problems in Grasberg. The Cobre mine in Panama is down. So, TC/RCs are right now at a negative and probably this year will continue to be negative.

Okay. So, for this year you haven't contracted yet or?

No, we are contracted. More than 85% is contracted at the benchmark. So, we are going to frankly get TC/RCs at close to zero or slightly negative.

What was the fourth quarter hedges in aluminum?

Fourth quarter, we were hedged about -- where is it, yes, 64% at INR 2,807, and currency was 26% at INR88.

Fourth quarter alumina sales was how much? And what are you expecting going forward?

Yes. The fourth quarter alumina sales were 211 KT, and in Q1, we expect to sell about 170.

How do you break up the net debt for the company on a consolidated level? I think what was the India cash and Novelis net debt we have?

Yes. So, India gross debt is INR 12,200 crores, cash is INR 18,000 crores, so net debt is minus INR6,000 crores. Novelis gross debt is INR 75,000 crores, cash is INR11,000, gives you a net debt of INR63,000 crores.

Can you throw some light on the mid-Japanese port premium that we are seeing? It has rocketed up. And how do you see it panning out? Are we better off more in the export market than domestic as of today?

It's a good question. I think Midwest are now at $380. So, the delta between domestic realization and exports has narrowed down. So, it's a call -- I mean, I guess in Q1, probably our exports may be slightly higher. The Midwest, the MJP has jumped up because of the supply tightness as well as the freight prices going up, which is what the premiums reflect.

Do you have a peak net debt number in mind? I understand you have a net debt-to-EBITDA number in mind, but absolute net debt number, do you have something in mind?

So consolidated net debt peak should be between INR80,000 crores and INR90,000 crores over the next 2 years.

On Novelis Bay Minette cold mill - how would the spreads be on cold rolling only until the hot mill comes into play? And given that overall commissioning would take a year's time, how should we look at the fixed cost associated with that startup?

Sure. So, when we talk about commissioning, we're just commissioning each asset as it comes up. So, we started commissioning the cold mill. The commissioning process is typically in the 4- to 5-month timeframe from cold commissioning to -- and through hot commissioning. So, we will begin commissioning of the hot mill next month. And so, as that finishes commissioning, we will then also complete the commissioning of the remainder of the equipment. So, by the back half of this year, the full calendar year, we will have all the equipment needed and commissioned so that we can begin qualifying coils or product with our customers and believe that we will enter fiscal '28 with commercial coils being sold at that point in time. We've also talked about 18 to 24 months to fully ramp up and get to the capacities that we've talked about of 600 KT. So there will be some start-up costs that get excluded from EBITDA as we fully commissioned the plant.

Just a follow-up. When we talked about the $600 per ton long-term plans on a blended basis, do we factor in the start-up cost below the item as well as the current scrap spreads or the scrap spread is lagging behind a couple of quarters in our assumptions?

Yes, absolutely. We factor in the fact that during the ramp-up phase, the fixed costs that are not getting absorbed are below the line in net income. We have not factored in current scrap spreads. I mean these current scrap spreads and the current scrap market conditions; we take it as not sustainable. Things will come back to normal, and there will be some tightness, which we are aware about. We have factored that in all our plans, including when we talk about $600 per ton. To your specific question, no, we are not assuming such optimistic metal prices nor are we assuming spreads staying at current levels. We are assuming that there will be tightening both on pricing as well as on spreads. So, $600 per ton is more like we will achieve it on a sustainable level, not with special tailwinds that we are enjoying now.

On Novelis - considering 18 to 24 months for ramping up the facility, would it mean you would have a certain timeframe to actually ramp it up beyond a certain level - would take at least another 2 to 3 years. Will the volume expansion remain within a certain band for next 2 to 3 years?

Yes. So, the ramp-up from -- once we get to fully qualified coils, we will -- it will ramp fairly evenly over those 18 to 24 months. At times, we'll have to add a shift here or there as we go up. But the guidance that Dev said that as we complete the full commission or the full ramp-up after 24 months, we would be at the run rate of 600 KT and the overall EBITDA per ton that we've been talking about off that facility would be north of $1,000 per ton.

On sulfuric acid - you talked about West Asia crisis leading to these prices. Also wanted to understand there's a lot of news flow around China restricting export of sulfuric acid. Have you started seeing that in the market? Is that impacting supplies? And I believe most of sulfuric acid is sold to Indian fertilizer and chemical industries - is the government worried about prices or looking at controlling prices in any way?

The sulfuric prices actually are set by a global index on a dollar term just like LME is. And China restricting exports means that in the current April month and all the sulfuric prices have actually gone up further. And no, we don't only sell domestically, we also export sulfuric acids abroad as well.

So if West Asia crisis, if Strait of Hormuz opens, sulfuric prices will come down. But this China restricting export of sulfuric acid - is there a possibility that these prices stay elevated?

So Satyadeep, I have no problem if they stay elevated because it helps us because TC/RCs are negative.

On Meenakshi mine - Bandha has high strip ratio, takes a long time. Meenakshi has a very low strip ratio. Should we assume some volume in FY29 and ramp-up from there would be similar to Chakla?

It would be even faster than Chakla because it's got less than 1 strip ratio. So, you should see a reasonably substantial volumes coming in, in FY29 from Meenakshi.

Lastly, the aluminum smelter expected in '28 and the other in '29 - can you talk about what's the visibility in terms of civil construction and all for this smelter to get commissioned in FY28?

So, calendar year December '27, the first 180 pots of Aditya will get commissioned. And calendar year December '28, the next 180 pots of Aditya will get commissioned. We are -- the timelines look fairly firm to us. The first 180 for sure by next year, December.

On Novelis - we have operations in Ontario. Trump tariffs are still there. Shipments move from US to Canada and back. Is there any derisking mitigation moves at your plant?

Sure. Yes, we do have a rolling facility in Ontario, Canada, Kingston. It is fed from our Oswego, New York facility, and then that product is then dispersed primarily into the auto industry, some specialty products as well. So, as we've been talking about on the last several calls, we have an overall mitigation strategy as it relates to tariff impacts by sourcing more domestic coal mill capacity inside of the US. So that now we can -- as Oswego comes back from the fires here in the next few weeks, we're able to utilize some of the cold mill capacity in the US to mitigate the full impact associated with the tariffs, and we continue to work with both governments for further potential scenarios of relief associated with that.

Current coal mix - if you could highlight. Second is where does the 90th percent of the cost curve currently stand? And power has been chased by several other industries, primarily data centers globally. How do you see the cost differential for Hindalco versus Rest of the world?

So, the coal mix for quarter 4 was 61% linkage, 30.7% e-auction and the last few were sort of own mines. Your second question was where is the larger cost curve of the aluminum? So, I think it would be fair to say that the majority of the Western smelters, etcetera, they are at least $300, $400 higher than what we have in India. So that cost curve is, I think, more about $2,000 to $2,200 per ton. Your third question, I think, was on power costs. So, you're right. If you are drawing power from the grid, then you are competing with hyperscalers of data centers. But generally, aluminum smelters, whether it's Middle East, us, Norway, Canada, have long-term PPAs with the government, and hence are not really buying power from the grid.

Would it be possible to provide some color on off-the-shelf inventories? And secondly, you touched upon Midwest - if you could provide some color specifically on Europe and MJP premiums. Hypothetically, if Fed increases rates, where do you see the larger impact - on premiums or LME?

So, look, that's -- I will let Steve talk about Midwest. But generally, aluminum inventory worldwide is around 8 million tons, which is 40 days. So, it has dramatically come down, especially with the West Asia conflict. The second thing is the premiums generally reflect local phenomena. So MJP is up because of freight going up and Japan availability being low. ECDP will go up because of other factors. Midwest is up because of the Trump tariffs of 50% have been baked into the premium rather than the LME because it's a regional issue. So, the LME tends to work on the supply/demand, whereas the premiums reflect local availability and the cost of transportation.

Can you give us some detailed update on our mitigation efforts for scrap sourcing - for example diversion of landfilling scrap. Do we get any approvals? Has it started?

I'll take that. Okay. So, we are working on a number of fronts, as we have been saying to diversify scrap sources. So, to some of the things about landfill, no, we don't need any approvals. Here, it is more about working with the municipal recycling facilities, putting in technology and extracting UBCs or scrap that would otherwise go into landfill. So, this is not like a few months' initiative. This is an initiative that we have started to pilot, and then over time, we will expand it to a larger number of these facilities. But the main thing, which is actually very exciting, and that is what we should be really feeling very good and positive about is that we will have a lot more scrap inputs coming from end-of-life automotive where we already have a partner who has brought in the technology for scrap sortation. As we speak, the aluminum intensive vehicles, which have been produced over the last about 15 years, will start more and more to reach scrap yards. It is part of the strategy that will give us access to over $600 per ton of EBITDA.

On domestic, can you give details on the smaller projects on copper side - we are spending around INR 5,000 crores like battery grade copper foil, e-waste IGT. Any EBITDA potential at full ramp-up?

So, one by one. Copper inner grooved tubes project is undergoing qualification with customers today. So that's 35 KT of copper tube that will go for air condition manufacturing. 50 KT recycling Pakhajan plant will commission in August. So once that is commissioned, we are going to process copper, then e-waste scrap to get 50 KT of copper. So, these are the two projects that are in the immediate horizon that are going to immediately impact the copper performance over the next year. The copper smelter will be a few years out. We are just starting that, that will take 3 years.