On Slide #32 - quarter-on-quarter, aluminum EBITDA per ton has gone up by $200. Is it possible to share some sort of a bridge as to what has led to this $200 increase? How much is cost? How much would be the top line value addition? And maybe what is the alumina sales contribution?
So I do not have the bridge, but I think you have been touching all the points. So the cost was 1% lower. Alumina sales contributed. The specialty chemical sales did well. So, all this is in the upstream EBITDA.
On Novelis - at the last earnings call the expectation was that the tariffs would be net positive if you net out both direct and Midwest. But now it seems like it's a net negative impact. What changed between those quarters?
So I think that we have been pretty, pretty consistent about the fact that we see trade deals happening. We see, in our view, timing to be determined. But we think that there will be a USMCA 2.0. And really, when we said neutral to positive, it was taking into account that some trade deals are bound to happen. The timing of it is becoming a bit of a factor of volatility. And the reason why it is negative for the time being is awaiting some of these deals to happen. So I think that there is some positivity. I mean, you saw what happened with the UK deal. You saw the deal coming through with China. The rest of the deals, we are pretty sure, are happening, in the works. And as soon as we have some of those, particularly the USMCA 2.0, we will be going in that direction. So you have to take this negative impact as something for the time being.
On the CAPEX guidance for the domestic operations, could you just give us the FY '26 and '27 guidance?
So this current year the guidance is about Rs. 7,500 crores to Rs. 8,000 crores. I think the next year will be peak when we will start to have many of the upstream projects kicking in. But let me give you that guidance towards 3rd Quarter of this year when we know exactly what the cash out will be. But this year, our guidance is about Rs. 7,500 crores to Rs. 8,000 crores. Last year we spent Rs. 6,500 crores, just for comparison.
On downstream aluminum business - the EBITDA per ton has increased quite sharply. Could you explain the product mix change you were talking about? And is it the new structural EBITDA per ton that we should expect or could there be some volatility around this?
So, I think that over the next few quarters, Amit, you are going to see the product mix gradually improving and stabilizing. So, in the short term, in Q4 there was a lot of packaging, foil stock that added, and foil stock demand was very high so the pricing was also very good. We also started to put more value-added engineered products like the battery enclosures. And you are going to see things like aluminum AC fin, and on the copper side IGT. So, all that is going to come out in FY '26. So, we are fairly confident that in FY '26 and going forward, the downstream EBITDA is going to steadily increase. Yes, there could be some sort of short term, depends on market conditions. But I would be very confident in saying that the downstream EBITDA and downstream product mix is going to steadily increase from this point onwards. Also, the second point is that 160 KTPA FRP in Lapanga is also commissioned. Silvassa Extrusion 36 KT will fully commission this year. The copper IGT plant is commissioning this quarter, and the aluminum AC fin is also commissioning this quarter.
On greenhouse gas emission intensity - despite our various endeavors putting up solar capacity progressively, it has actually remained constant year-on-year. Why is it so? And is it the peak greenhouse gas intensity that we have hit? Also, the aluminum intensity that you report does not include alumina, it's only aluminum?
See, if you have got 90% coal around that 19 is the theoretical number that you can get to. So, until our 100 megawatts of round-the-clock renewables kicks in in Aditya, that's when you will start to see the first phase, and then we are going to add 200 megawatts more. So, as that renewable goes in, then you will see the carbon intensity going down. But you have to realize, let's take alumina, Belgavi for more than half the year was running completely on renewables. So our alumina carbon footprint has dramatically gone down. Now, if you take Dahej and copper, we now have a hybrid power being fed in. So the carbon intensity of the copper has also significantly gone down. So the real challenge for us is the aluminum smelter, and that will only go down as more round the clock power starts to come in renewables. It's only aluminum, yes.
Can you elaborate further on the EMIL mining acquisition and also the note about getting an offer about Novelis Fairmont sale?
So let me take the first part. So, in our coal security, if you remember, we got Chakla, which we had planned for Renusagar. We got Meenakshi West, which was for Aditya and Hirakud smelters. And the only smelter that we were still exposed was Mahan. And Mahan is in the Northern Coalfields where coal availability over the years has been going down. And Northern Coalfields' main customer is the IPPs in North India. So, we have been eyeing how to get that coal security. And now, as per the regulations, and as we said we still got some more clarifications to get from the government, but Bandha has now got its mining lease, that means FC1, FC2, EC have all been done. And hence, as per the regulations, we can take over the subsidiary at cost, which is what we have today presented to the Board and we are progressing with, and we will take shareholder approval. But once we get Bandha, Mahan is secured, because Bandha is 18.5 kilometers from Mahan. So, the future of Mahan, any further expansion of smelter in Mahan, we are now secured from a coal point of view. So it's a fairly significant event for Hindalco.
And about the Novelis Fairmont?
Yes. So, on Fairmont, after announcing that we were moving towards closing the facility in late March, we were approached in early April, we have entered into a non-binding letter of intent to see if we can sell the property. That time period is coming to an end, and we will see if we can get to an agreement or not. If not, we will move forward with the closure of Fairmont over the next few months.
On Slide #18 - over the last two years, while demand is up at a CAGR of 12%, imports excluding scrap have risen quite sharply, around 55% plus over two years. What kind of imports are these? Are these finished goods which Indian players are not capable of producing? Would a downstream capacity expansion help substitute these?
So, very specifically, this sudden splurge was because of aluminum coming to make solar panels. So there was a big demand for solar panels that were being assembled, and a lot of that aluminum came in at cheap price from China. Government has subsequently put tariffs and duties on it. And I do not think you are going to see that. But it was this sudden splurge from about 1 million to 1.2 million, a large part of it was aluminum for solar frameworks. It would not continue, because now the duties have been put in on the solar, so they have to manufacture it in India, so it's not going to continue going forward.
What was the alumina sales volume in Q4? And what was the hedging gain that you booked in the quarter?
So the hedging gain was a wash. I mean, we did not gain or did not lose on the hedging side. And the alumina sales, we sold 172 KT in the last quarter, and we will be selling about 190 KT in Q1.
To understand the alumina business better - these sales that you make are all on spot basis, or there are some contracts also that go in it?
No, we have quite a lot of contracts. So I think the last quarter also I had mentioned that when spot prices spiked, we did not get the full benefit, because we have long-term contracts. And some of these contracts are sort of 50% based as a percentage of LME as well as the Platts Premium, which is the index for alumina. So because we sell about 700 KT, 800 KT, we have thought it prudent to have some longer-term contracts, we are not fully on the spot.
Could you guide us on the aluminum COP for Q1? And what was the number in Q4? Also, on Aditya FRP, by when should it start contributing to volumes?
In Q4 we were 1% down versus Q3. And looking at Q1, we could be flat to 1% up, because CP coke prices have gone up, coal looks okay for now. So, flat to 1% up in Q1. June. Already we have sold about, I was there the day before yesterday, we have started to sell about 20 coils of foil stock already. June will be where the volumes will pick up. We are planning about 60 KT to 70 KT of commercial sales this year.
On alumina sales, did we benefit a lot because of some land price increase versus what the spot was? Is it possible to share what realization was alumina versus 3Q in 4th Quarter?
No, I think if you remember, Sumangal, in Q3 I had said that many of our prices are sort of M-minus-1 or Q-minus-1. So the higher prices in Q3, I remember some of you asking me we did not get the full impact, whereas one of our competitor had a record quarter. Well, some of the Q4 sales benefited from that higher pricing that was there in Q4. It's not one full quarter lag. That's not the way I would put it. Because we sell every month some shipments, the ones that came in January took advantage of the higher pricing, whereas by March we were back to when the index came down to 350, we were back down.
On the downstream EBITDA, you said you expect a steady increase. Any medium-term guidance - should we kind of take something like a $300 on a quarter basis going forward or gradually maybe in few quarters?
I have been sort of internally guiding $250 to $300. It depends a little bit on how the FRP ramps up, how Silvassa gets commissioned. But I think it's between $250 to $300 this year. I think after this year, going forward, we will be comfortable giving a much more tighter range.
What is our captive coal from Chakla expectation in terms of volumes in FY '27-'26? And another one year to ramp up gradually?
So, Chakla, the box cut we are expecting to be somewhere around March, April of next year. So the coal production should start probably by December of next year. Yes, yes. I think FY '28 will see the full benefit because even Bandha, the new mine that we should be getting, actually there box cut starts even earlier, but the stripping ratio is high. So by FY '28 you should have both Chakla and Bandha running, which will be a major relief to Hindalco.
On copper, should we expect this Rs. 600 crores kind of run rate on a quarterly basis given the new TcRcs have set in?
Yes, I think, in the past we have been guiding Rs. 600 crores and doing more. But this time we will guide Rs. 600 crores and probably do Rs. 600 crores, Sumangal.
On project progress - alumina upstream refinery on track. Where is the engineering ordering and all that gives you confidence? Capital cost, timeline, where have you progressed on this?
Refinery, majority of the engineering is complete. All the big lead items have already been placed. So on the Aditya refinery, we are fairly comfortable as to where the project is going and what time it will commission as per our plan, so nothing there. The copper recycling plant also land broken, all major equipment orders put, engineering more or less complete. So the two projects that are advanced we are quite comfortable. Do not expect any surprises there. The two newer projects, which is the aluminum smelter and the copper smelter, that we are in getting the EC stage and doing engineering etc. going on now. So Satyadeep, I do not think so. I think that the confidence on being 100% is when the engineering is done. So that's the only thing we are saying. It does not mean that the smelter just because we are doing the engineering, we expect a surprise, that's not the way I would look at it.
On the Essel Mining Bandha coal block - this is a related party transaction, what is the rationale for Essel Mining? And how does these coal acquisitions tie up with the RE-RTC that the company has?
Good questions, so let me try to go one by one. I think for Essel Mining, because of the CAPEX spend and all required, I think that they are quite happy that we take over the CAPEX. And they will continue to be the MDO operator of mine. So Essel today, if you know, is the MDO operator of Amelia, which is just next door to Bandha. So I think for them, they will remain a service provider on the mining side, whereas companies like us with the resources will be providing the capital and having the ownership of the mine. So that's the first part of the answer. The second is, how does it fit in with the overall renewable strategy and what we have committed on Hindalco? So, as we have been very clear, the base load of any of the smelters for the foreseeable future still has to come from thermal. So while even in Mahan we are going to add 100, 200 megawatts of renewables over the coming years, we still have to make sure that the base load is secure. So I think that having these three mines secures the base load for the smelters existing and the expansions that we told you during the analyst meet that we had. Both Mahan and Aditya were built for 720 KT capacity. And over the next five, seven years, we will be going to that capacity.
On the aluminum domestic FRP - given that our capacities would start coming on stream, any guidance on what type of volumes we can look at? And could we actually bridge the gap between the India FRP and Novelis, which is closer to $500 per ton?
So it's a little bit complicated in the sense that the FRP 2A, 60 KT will be sold this year. 60 KT to 70 KT, that's additional. And Silvassa, the full ramp-up should slowly happen, so maybe 15 KT more of extrusion. The copper IGT should be about 20 KT. The aluminum AC fin should be about another 20 KT. But you see, many of these 20 KTs, etc., are coming on top of rolling and extrusion. So what you have to realize is that we are now getting more and more engineered products. So it's not just a volume game anymore. I prefer that you start to monitor the EBITDA of the downstream going forward. Well, we will try to. Let's see how it progresses going forward. But certainly, we are aiming for the $300-plus EBITDA per ton in India in the mid-term.
On bauxite - what is our total requirement? And where are we sourcing it from? And specifically on OMC, if we have any long-term tie-up, the tonnage and pricing. Also on the composite leases Damchua and Surbena - status?
I have never heard of these two. The first part of the question. So, we produce about 3.5 million tons of alumina, so roughly into 3, so 7 million tons of bauxite is our requirement. So 100% of the bauxite required for our alumina smelters that provide metal-grade alumina are from internal sources, we do not buy any. The only plant that needs to buy bauxite is Belgavi. And for Belgavi, we buy some part domestically and some part from imports. Now OMC, currently we have no bauxite contract for delivery, though just last month we did take some amount of bauxite for Belgavi. Going forward, when Aditya refinery comes in place, we have a long-term MOU with OMC to provide the 3 million tons for the 1-million-ton refinery we are putting in place, but that's two years out from now. Yes, it is a signed agreement with the Orissa government.
On coal - what will be the incremental CAPEX for Bandha? And the premium paid was around 21%, what would it mean on a rupees per Kcal basis?
Yes. I think you got the numbers right. So we are buying it at Rs. 48 lakhs, which is the share capital, plus the Rs. 1,000 crores debt that they have on the books to bring mine to this point. And we probably will spend another Rs. 4,000 crores over the life of mine. So that is the CAPEX for Bandha. The rupees per million Kcal of Bandha will be lower than what we get from get from NCL today. Now the bigger worry for us of why Bandha is important is that the NCL coal is steadily diminishing and the premiums are going up. And most of the coal from NCL is being allocated to IPPs. So, that is why Bandha has become very critical. But to your specific question, it is better than the price we get today from NCL.
On the other EMIL leases - Amelia and Subhadra. Is there a need for the Company to probably transfer this at a future date? Also, for full year what was the sourcing mix for linkage, e-auction and import?
No, no. See, there is a subsidiary of Essel which we are taking over that has got Bandha and has got Radhikapur East. Radhikapur East has already been surrendered. So this is the subsidiary we are taking. Subhadra, Amelia are MDO contracts that Essel runs under their main legal entity, we are not touching those. So full year, the linkage coal was 50%, e-auction was 47%, own mines was 2%. I do not see this mix fundamentally changing in FY '26. I think the real change will start to happen when Chakla and Bandha get commissioned.
On Novelis - that $40 million per quarter impact, just wanted to understand the different moving parts there. In terms of can sheet imports, primary aluminum imports, scrap imports, or the gains from backward integration because Midwest premium has gone up?
Yes, yes. There are multiple impacts that you are highlighting, so I will just try and take them one at a time. One impact is the primary aluminum that comes into the United States, because two-thirds comes from Canada into the US, as the tariff's got put on, Midwest premium has risen. With a higher Midwest premium, we are seeing a better spread as it relates to our recycling business due to that. Offsetting that, we do have a Canadian facility that serves primarily the auto and specialties markets. And so the coils being imported from that facility back into the US has an impact of 25% to 32%. And then our IR shipments to support the beverage packaging market in the US, where the US has zero capacity, we are importing roughly 150 KT annually, primarily from South Korea but also some from Brazil as well. And so that's being impacted right now as well. And so when we talk about the $40 million, we are netting those together right now. We are saying it's near term because, as Dev said earlier, we do think there will be continued movement in the tariffs and trade deals.
Just a couple of clarifications - on can sheet imports we don't have a way to pass it on to the end consumer? And when we say $40 million net impact, the Midwest premium benefit on backward integrated 60% is taken into consideration?
Yes. So, as Steve said that we have all these moving parts, so think about it as follows. That the elevated Midwest helps us to pretty much mitigate, to a very significant extent, the import tariff burden of the inter-region flows of metal that happen from Asia or South America to service the North American markets. And by the way, we get arbitrage as well. For example, if we buy at MJP and we sell at Midwest, we get an arbitrage. So basically that does not bother us as much from the point of view of being able to net these things off. The one that really is very high on the radar is the importation that we have to make from Kingston, Canada. And that is why I made specific reference to USMCA 2.0. Because if that gets taken care of, in principle, these tariffs will stop bothering us. The arbitrages will take care of the elevated Midwest, which will still be there, will take care.
On Novelis - when we are saying our scrap markets could be heading tighter, is it because incrementally China is going to go more towards scrap? Or within the US market itself the availability of scrap because of some more plants starting up?
Yes. So, a couple of things here. Very clearly demand for scrap is going to go up because of new capacities that are coming in. A lot of industry is following the model that we have been implementing over the last decade. We ourselves will need more scrap as we commission new capacities, for example, as we have commissioned Guthrie; on the other end of the world, as we have commissioned the 100 KT expansion in Korea. All this means that we ourselves will need more scrap, and demand is going up faster than the supply. Now, remember one thing, I mean, to be amply clear. As we see the trends, I said it at our last earnings call, if you go back. Right now we are in the phase of cycling over last year. We do not see any worsening of the situation as compared to the last two quarters. I mean, it is just that we need two more quarters of cycling over the strengthening of the scrap prices. So at this time, in fact, Q4 was actually an improvement on Q3 and the elevated premium, particularly the Midwest premium, is coming to be of help.
On tariffs - hypothetically if USMCA 2 happens and Canada is exempted, would not it also mean that the Midwest premium should also fall given that Canada is a major supplier? In that case, we lose the arbitrage versus MJP, but still need to pay higher tariffs on Asian imports as long as they are not exempted?
Yes, we were referring to how it works under the USMCA previously, which at that time the primary 10% was left on. Everything else was then excluded. And so that's where Dev's targeted a big shift for the products coming out of Kingston down into the US Obviously, there's work that still needs to be done on just overall 232 for primary as well, but that would be a secondary issue.
On alumina - any reason for giving alumina sales guidance only for the next quarter? Is this number very volatile or safe to assume that we can do 700 KT to 800 KT in '26? And how do we see alumina pricing going ahead?
Safe to assume that we can do 700 KT to 800 KT. They asked me for a quarter, so I gave a quarter. But yes, safe to assume 700 KT to 800 KT. Prices are between $350 to $400. The reason it's spiked is because of what Guinea did, because it's such a large supplier of bauxite to China and many alumina refineries. Only thing I can say is Guinea remains a completely volatile country. So it can always happen. But when we do our planning and budgeting, we assume that it's going to be between $350 and $400.