We already have ingot and wafer of 2 GW. Is there any plan to scale back to 10 GW in the medium term given that a full list of wafer modules is kicking from June '28?
We will be prepared and have the capacity to, but there is no specific planning. The total line capacity on modules and cells is 10 GW right now. What constitutes the wafer and ingot capacity with the changes coming in FY'29, we can evaluate this further closer to the period. Overall, factoring in planning and preparation time, it would take us approximately 20 months to ramp up, if required.
This quarter you started giving Copper segment performance. EBITDA numbers are not mentioned - can you highlight the EBITDA number of Copper segment this quarter?
We have to report that from the coming quarter - we'll report first time as a separate line item from next quarter onwards. Just from the revenue point of view, we had to report given it met the revenue threshold.
On the green hydrogen ecosystem - what is the plan for electrolyzers, are we on line to achieve cost targets for GH2? Are we considering nuclear as a baseload backing for green hydrogen? Also, why has the bottom line of Road assets fallen this year?
On green hydrogen, our main focus is to get the integrated manufacturing complex up, do the pre-prep and planning for the new site for solar and wind assets, and electrolyzer testing is underway. On nuclear, once we are ready with the green power and hydrogen decisions, we will disclose full operating details at that time. The first objective is to have the integrated manufacturing facility up and running fully at full capacity. On Road business, now that we have completed the majority of Road assets, it will become more standard form accounting treatment. You will get baseline numbers of the Road business from next year, with steady predictable growth profile. We'll give a full-fledged briefing on Ganga Expressway post the September release.
The press release says Q4 FY'26 results were impacted by depreciation of newly commissioned Navi Mumbai and Copper assets. But EBIT numbers suggest weakness in Commercial Mining - Commercial Mining EBIT has declined Q-o-Q. Can you explain the sharp decline in commercial mining EBIT?
The weakness in Commercial Mining is related to specific weather events at Carmichael mine in Australia - a rain-related event where all the mines had to pump out accumulated water due to seasonally or decadally higher rain. This resulted in mining production being severely constrained for about just over a period of nearly a quarter. We expect that to not be there this year. The other part is a noncash mark-to-market loss due to exchange rates, which is about INR600-odd crores. So those two elements - mark-to-market (non-cash) of about INR600 crores and about another over INR300 crores related to the specific weather event.
Can you help us with the new hyperscale order of 358 MW signed this quarter? What is the timeline for execution?
This will be a standard form, roughly, you can assume about 40 months. Ground is in pre-planning stage, so just over a quarter.
This quarter we started selling completely in India. Do we continue to sell only in India in FY'27 onwards or will we start exporting also?
We will continue to sell in India. There could be certain markets where ongoing marketing efforts continue. Recently there was an EU FTA also signed, so there are a few opportunities around EU area. But overall from numbers point of view, we can just assume that it's primarily India. It compresses the margin, but that gain we will make from productivity. So short term there is slight margin compression, which you will notice in the numbers. But from a business point of view, the sales and the ramp-up of sales is quite solid.
What is the capital expenditure plan for FY'27 based on the current capex program? Can you break it into various segments?
We were close to just about 95% of our target capex this year. We expect the next year to be around the same level, about INR40,000 crores. Of that, there are 3 core areas: airports will be roughly about INR17,000 crores; PVC will capitalize close to about INR9,000 crores; another INR4,000-odd crores in natural resources, metals and mining space; and all businesses combined including Adani New Industries, hydrogen etc. will take the other INR10,000 crores.
You closed the year at 4.9 GW of module sales but have capacity of 4 GW. How should we understand the sales potential from your capacity - volumes seem much higher than rated capacity?
That is largely because of the demand that we have and the participants in the market who are unable to utilize their capacity. We use a tolling type arrangement, presumably using that capacity to sell higher than our capacity.
Can you reiterate timelines for the next 6 GW module and cell?
Safely assume that you will start seeing some of the numbers for module line towards the second half of the year and then we should have the cell line, we should complete in the second half, and you will see the numbers from the next year onwards.
On Mining Services segment - you ended on 16 MMT annualized to 64 million. How should we look at growth in next year and year after?
We sort of ended the year at around 50 million. You can expect that we will be high double-digit growth next year as well. So say close to 20% mark.
Your rated capacity including mines to be commercialized has moved to 145, but based on mines already operational it's 86 - is that the right number?
The peak capacity of the mines that are already operating is 86.6, of which we have this year produced roughly 50, and it is expected to go up by, say, high double digits or close to say 20%.
On the Airport segment - you exited this year on a strong note. When should we look at demerger of this business?
From Airports business plan point of view, the airport management would be ready by around '27, '28. After that, it's very much for AEL Board to determine. But from a business point of view, the business will be ready around that period.
Does the Airport business require any separate investment from outside investors given your internal capex plan running at INR15,000-20,000 crores?
Business has its plans laid out, so funded plans are laid out. The question is whether our investors are interested - yes, very much because it's a premier business of its type in AEL. But does the business need that from its own point of view? We are comfortable with the business plan as it is for ourselves. But that doesn't mean that there are people not interested. When it's appropriate and if there's anything, we will disclose to market.
On Airport capex of INR15,000-17,000 crores - with Navi Mumbai completed this year, what are the subprojects for FY'27?
A couple of key projects. Number one is Phase 2 of Navi Mumbai - all the traffic projections of the Mumbai MMR region show we will be filled with Navi Mumbai already in next 12 to 18 months, so we are accelerating that project. The second big bucket of capex will go to our city side development across 5 airports: Mumbai, Navi Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Lucknow and Jaipur. We are also building a new terminal in Ahmedabad for Commonwealth Games in 2030.
Revenue growth was decent but EBITDA was down year-over-year. Can you explain what happened in Commercial Mining, Integrated Resources, Airports and Roads, and how we should think about 2027 for those segments?
The overall consolidated EBITDA is flat. The core Airport business EBITDA is almost 50% higher quarter-to-quarter on a stable basis. Roads business transitions to majority risk-based assets online with Ganga Expressway coming online in April. Three assets - Navi Mumbai, Road and Kutch Copper - will add close to INR3,000 crores, so roughly 16-17% of the growth next year will just come from these 3 assets. EBITDA conversion rate is largely an accounting artifact - assets are now fully online. On a run rate, we are at approximately INR19,000 crores EBITDA for the year, which is just under 20% higher than the accounting number.
You highlighted 80% of EBITDA now comes from core infra incubating businesses. How should we think about that mix over the next 2 to 3 years?
We originally outlined in our plan way back in 2019 that if we stick to our plan, this is where we'll end up. Eventually, we have a core infra and utility platform. Looking at Adani Group total including AEL plus other listed portfolio, we are about 82% to 85% core infra. Now AEL is mirroring that. The next 2 to 3 years, we expect these numbers to continue to inch higher a little bit, broadly mirroring our core infra strategy which is about 4/5th of our total business.
Can you explain the $1.5 billion capital raise across domestic-international markets? How should we think about leverage overall - you're at 3.9x currently - as new assets come online?
We have two fundamental risk profiles in incubation - core infra and metals, materials and mining - and we handle them quite differently. In core infra, net external debt is about INR45,000 crores ($5 billion), heavily supported by regulatory asset base of just under $4 billion. On metals, materials and mining, net external debt of about $2 billion against operating assets of roughly $6 billion. We guide to 3.5 to 4.5 range for core infra while growing. The 3.9x is likely to remain either flat or slightly down, including our capex plan of about $4.5 billion.
You said INR3,000 crores incremental EBITDA from Copper, Navi Mumbai and Ganga Expressway - is that all put together?
No, no, it's put together. Yes, we will 100% have that. We will close to 100% probability have that.
That is not the peak EBITDA for FY'27, right?
No, there will be - as the Airport team mentioned, Navi Mumbai is still ramping up. It will ramp up in about 18 months. So the peak EBITDA of Navi Mumbai itself will be closer to - in fact, it will approach this number itself. It's not peak number at all. Navi Mumbai alone will be close to INR3,000 crores over period. Ganga Expressway investment was just over INR15,000 crores. Copper itself will be close to just over INR2,000 crores. So overall, these businesses will contribute at peak capacity somewhere between INR6,000 crores to INR6,800 crores, towards the end of FY'28.
On ANIL ecosystem - we have INR15,000 crores top line - what is the breakup between solar and wind in top line and EBITDA terms?
Just the solar EBITDA is roughly around INR3,700 crores and wind is INR760-odd crores. The top line is just about INR12,000 crores for solar, INR3,700 crores for wind.
We are planning for INR40,000-45,000 crores of capex for next year. Do we have any plan for further dilution or will it come from cash generation and debt?
Dilution - we do the rights issue, so it's not dilutive. But we don't have any plan for any specific equity issuances for the business now.