Merchant risk fully contracted away via 25-yr AESL PPAs.
- Hybrid plf yoy decline — answer hedged.
- Solar cuf sequential dip — answer hedged.
- Merchant ppa conversion timing — answer hedged.
On the slightly lower PLF on the hybrid side - while both wind and solar have done well YoY, hybrid has been a tad lower YoY. How should one think about that?
Wind has changed to a little extent in the current context. It's a few basis points less but a lot depends on weather content and placement. Viral added hybrid CUF is also dependent on solar-wind combination - new projects have a specific design CUF which is lower. On H1 basis we are 39% plus on hybrid which is decent. Raj added our Rajasthan hybrid is very intense with 700 megawatt having 500+ MW wind and 600+ MW solar - a unique mix. The new hybrids we are setting up are per PPA requirements where such intensity is not there.
On solar CUF that dipped sequentially - why? And related, how much of the delayed Khavda commissioning capacity has come online in Q3?
If you are speaking of Q2, the monsoon this time has been a bit erratic. The weather change impacts that. On H1 basis the solar CUF is better than last year. The company did close to 75% of what it did last year in capacity addition - 2.4 gigawatt in H1. In spite of heavy monsoon, doing more than 800 megawatt and close to 900 megawatt in a quarter is no small thing. We are very proud of what the team has done. Q2 has always been a difficult quarter not only for us but for everyone else too.
Is it fair to expect what we are selling on merchant under long-term PPAs will get converted into long-term PPA sales by end of this fiscal?
We call it infirm power, not merchant. It depends on when PPAs are getting operationalized at a particular time frame. We cannot say all of them will be operationalized because certain elements on the whole evacuation system are required. It is not only evacuating from Khavda or that particular project - further elements are also required to be in place before PPAs are operationalized. They will be operationalized in a sequencing manner as we progress in this quarter and next quarter.
On BESS strategy - if I see our total 50 gigawatt portfolio, hybrid component is 5% (2.5 gigawatts) and even in current/under-construction portfolio we are not significantly present in BESS. Recent and upcoming tenders will have lot of hybrid BESS component. Is there any strategy around BESS that will change our 50-gigawatt mix?
Let me clarify - on earlier projects we decided not to win, it's not that we could not have won. It was our decision not to win. We have the capabilities. Regarding BESS, we are developing it at a scale which would be unprecedented in our country. At an appropriate time we will share what we are doing in current and future on BESS. Please be reassured that Adani Green is working and developing BESS at unprecedented scale. The BESS plan is not in the current 50-gigawatt number. We will come out with full strategy around BESS in short.
On the economics for BESS - can you throw light on the economics of overall BESS storage?
Tenders which are there, we decided not to win. You know the numbers in the market. We are nicely placed from competition and competitive advantage standpoint - we have solar power available, our own land where we can install BESS. From strategic standpoint, we are very well placed. Like in the solar module case, BESS technology improvement and pricing is going down. We are conscious and taking advantage of it. We foresee this is the future and we are working very closely with big manufacturers in this category to play a critical role. We will be playing a similar role in BESS category to renewable pure play. We will announce shortly about our whole BESS strategy. We have already shared PSP basis as another form of storage.
On the partnership that AdaniConnex and Google have for AI data center campus in Vizag - what is Adani Green's role, since the release highlights use of renewables?
It's currently too premature to actually give a proper strategy around it. As it evolves, obviously as a group we are very rich in terms of providing multiple solutions including 24x7 power which can be green power. We believe that is something which will be valued by this partnership and will be able to support the green ambitions which this particular venture will have.
What is the guidance for the current year? Are we seeing INR30,000 crores capex for 5 gigawatts and INR30,000-35,000 crores for next two years? Will we have similar 5-6 gigawatt of capacities coming up and more capacities back-ended in '29 and '30?
With respect to projects, we are looking at 5 gigawatts - that's our commitment. Saurabh added exact capacity will be given during Q3 or Q4 results, but it will always be going higher as we move forward into the next year. Ashish added words come cheap - we would like to first demonstrate what we are doing and then closer to next year we will have projection of the coming year.
On capacity expansion - in H1 we have already commissioned 2.4 gigawatt and guided for 5 gigawatts addition, so any probability we can scale up guidance for the full year? And on evacuation challenges - how are they placed?
We are committed to the 5 gigawatt and would like to first achieve that before saying anything else on future capacity. The team has done a phenomenal job in the first half despite heavy rains. On evacuation, these don't come in 250 megawatt or 750 megawatt tranches - they come in 3 gigawatt or 5 gigawatt or 2.5 gigawatt tranches. There has been a challenge but that is hardly less than 5% on our total effect. We expect another 2.5 gigawatt or more of evacuation coming in H2, and in totality close to 17 gigawatt of capacity coming from Khavda over the next 9 months. We focus on Rajasthan and Khavda.
On margins - merchant realization was down during the quarter but largely led by higher volume of merchant. Could you clarify how the non-PPA segment played its role in scaling up the margin?
It is not really an element of non-PPA segment per se. When you are talking about merchant, you have taken into consideration the infirm power too. The infirm power being sold as merchant is primarily an add-on to our PPAs. We are ahead of our commitments and selling majority of this power ahead - these are add-ons to overall returns because PPAs are for 25 years once operationalized. Coming ahead of timeline helps add more from a business case perspective. As PPAs get operationalized, they will be converted to PPA power and reflected on the balance sheet.
Can you clarify on the average realization on this infirm or merchant sales?
From a solar perspective, the average merchant realization was INR2.1 per unit plus the RECs at INR0.35 per unit. From wind perspective, INR5.13 per unit plus the RECs. We have about 35% of wind as our merchant capacity, which also helps boost the overall merchant realization.
On revenues from PPA-based capacity currently sold on merchant basis - you're recognizing it on revenue, you're not capitalizing it. Is that understanding correct?
Yes.
On PSP progress - how much have you spent so far there?
Physical progress is on track. Our first project at Chitravathi of 500 megawatts of PSP is about 57% completed in terms of physical progress. The overall project cost is about INR2,600 crores. Ashish Khanna added it is coming at a cost of around INR5.1 to INR5.2 crores per megawatt - very cost effective. The larger 1800 megawatt project is even more cost effective.
Will it be fair to assume this is largely prepared for merchant and there's no PPA at this point of time with this PSP?
Yes, today as we stand we have not locked it in a PPA, but we keep that flexibility with us with respect to playing this in the peak power market and extract additional revenue from there, and at the appropriate time put that into a contract. Ashish added that wherever we get an opportunity to earn a handsome return on a PPA, the assets are important to be in place to take full advantage of the opportunity.
On new PPAs - if you can talk about any new PPAs signed during the quarter or progress on projects won earlier this year and late last year.
Today we have LOAs of more than 4 gigawatts to be converted into PPAs. Other than that, around 27 gigawatts are there in the PPAs. We are on track moving towards the 50 gigawatt target. Viral added in this quarter specifically there is no major development in LOA-to-PPA conversion, but on an overall basis we have converted a lot of LOAs into PPAs in the last six to nine months.
On capex - capex was about 18% higher year-over-year. Help us understand the cadence of capex spending in fiscal '26 and '27 and beyond.
From capex perspective, for 5-gigawatt of capacity this year, capex is about INR30,000 crores, of which 2.4-gigawatt has been achieved. For next two years, the range would be in that same INR30,000 crores to INR35,000 crores of capex each year. The range translates into $4 billion of capex sort of number.
On receivable days improvement - what is that attributable to? Are there delays in payments from discoms? How sustainable is it?
Look at the annexure on receivables - overdue receivables, beyond the due date, is only four days, which is important to track. Every DISCOM continues to pay within the due dates. So it is all on track. Saurabh added there is no change in number of days from last year or last quarter. Sometimes the not-due category fluctuates a bit but it is not due. Ashish added we track it very closely with huge focus on realization of payments and teams monitoring it closely.
On leverage - how should we frame leverage as we go ahead with all the capex needs and growth plans, not just in fiscal '26 but beyond?
From a net debt to run rate EBITDA, we are at 4.4 times from an operational asset perspective. Including under construction debt, we are at 5.1 times. For another two to three years, we will be in the range between 4 times to 5 times of net debt to run rate EBITDA. As we get closer to '29 onwards, the number will drastically start to reduce because the capex would have all come on online. Earlier we were doing 10-11 gigawatt operating capacity or 4-5 gigawatt construction; today we are at 17 gigawatt operating with 4-5 gigawatt construction continuously. The number should continue downward and fall sharply from '29 onwards.
On EBITDA - if you remove other income, EBITDA was INR26 billion vs INR30 billion last quarter. We had guided for run rate EBITDA of INR136 billion for the portfolio commissioned by end of Q1 FY26 - roughly INR34 billion per quarter. Is it fair to assume Q3 and Q4 will achieve INR34 billion per quarter run rate?
Yes. Definitely, Mohit.
On grid availability for solar - it declined significantly from 97% in Q1 to 89%. Is this due to monsoon curtailment and will it be corrected as we go forward?
On the curtailment part, there cannot be exact timing, but there would always be a month here and there. We are on track on overall returns part - definitely going to meet and surpass returns. If you look at notes below, this time we have also included the external grid in it, which is where you see differentials from earlier reporting. It takes into consideration external as well as internal grid availability. Viral added this is primarily with respect to new projects getting commissioned where there can be a lag between transmission coming up versus capacity setup. The grid availability may show low on overall basis but you are still not really compromising on return because this is on new capacities running as merchant or infirm.
On gross block at the end of H1 FY26 - my number is roughly INR1 trillion. Is that correct?
In terms of rupees, the overall gross block is at about INR1 lakh crores, INR1.1 lakh crores including the CWIP. Without CWIP on gross block specific basis, it is INR94,000 crores plus a CWIP of INR16,000 crores to be added in terms of under construction projects. INR94,000 crores gross block is for all the operational portfolio of around 16.7-gigawatt.
On overall tendering sector - we have seen a bit of slowdown this year vs past two years. Just wanted your thoughts on tendering within renewables at a country level for next couple of years.
The important factor is not tendering but how much of those tenders are converted into PPAs. We are seeing a shift coming from pure-play solar and pure-play wind to a peak power type tender where storage is playing important role. We foresee more round-the-clock power, peak power type which is coming from renewable. We have hardly 4-gigawatt of LOAs going to be converted to PPAs. On overall basis, there have been certain tenders not converted to PPAs for some time. Next two years our view is we will have more tenders with peak power or storage power as a component rather than pure play solar. Raj added you see cycles - sometimes lot of activity, sometimes aggression from market players, then slowing down with different opportunities emerging. Adani Green dips into tendering when it allows higher return projects.
On current competition intensity - we've seen a lot of tenders come out on solar plus storage basis and we tend to be shy of participating. What's your view on competition intensity?
It's not a question of being shy of participating - our track record says how much contracts we have in hand. It's a question of our strategy and how we want to be in that market. The way some of these storage contracts are coming in, the value added can be broken into 50 megawatts, 100 megawatts, allowing a lot of people to participate competitively. The conventional players in these tenders are not necessarily the big participants because they see aggression happening. Markets normalize and mature again. Ashish added the question is at what return profile we would like to bid and execute - we invest for long-term, not competing with 50-100 megawatt platform players. Each organization has different reasons. We have return profile requirement and see enough opportunities.
On grid constraints quantification - if these grid constraints had not occurred, how much higher would generation be this quarter? And what's the overall capacity currently sold as infirm power?
We have already mentioned that the total impact is actually less than 5% - that is the impact of all this curtailment. Raj quantified infirm or pre-COD power capacity at 4,800 megawatt - 4.8 gigawatt.
On UP PSP - could you give some clarity in terms of how the capex will phase out over there?
It has a timeline of six years broadly from the day we signed the PSA. The capex would be heavy towards the end of last three years. Prior to that obviously the advances with respect to ordering, etc. would go. There is capex on the land side, some pre-development costs. That's what is expected in the first three years more, then the real capex would come in. We don't expect too much happening in the next couple of years. Ashish added initially more on land and advances for equipment, then continuous civil work, and in last years when equipment starts coming and installing, there is again a swing on capex - typical infrastructure project capex profile.
On the pipeline of PPA-signed projects - module sourcing requirements. For solar plus manufacturing PPA, are you still allowed to import Chinese modules, and for Maharashtra PPA, do you not need to meet domestic cell module requirement given the timing of those bids?
Yes, Nikhil. Your understanding is correct.
For merchant solar that you have been adding, are Chinese modules also allowed?
The way the law of the land is - bids which happened prior to somewhere early '21, we are allowed to import Chinese modules; that is our portfolio. Bids after that have ALMM requirement after 1st April 2024 commissioning. Maharashtra and a lot of LOAs in hand fall under ALMM. Recently government introduced ALCM requirement for projects commissioned after 1st June 2026. Any merchant projects from 1st of April 2024 until 1st June of 2026 can import cells from outside India; after that, cells have to be done in India.
Is that why we see lot of merchant solar getting added - to take benefit of this and the transmission charge waiver?
It is not only rational for us but rational for everyone. In Q1 before June, there have been major developments and execution of projects and commissioning to take advantage of the ISTS waiver, and that will continue.
On curtailment in ancillary market - it shows trashed down volume. Is there no compensation given for this curtailment?
On a PPA where we have scheduled power and it is curtailed, we get a deemed generation. The fundamental across all over India is that curtailment is being seen primarily on the temporary GNA side, which is the infirm power or merchant power. In Khavda too, most of the power coming from us and others is on T-GNA basis - there is no inequality as of now.
On infirm power, you said revenues are not getting capitalized in P&L. Similarly is the financing cost also going to P&L?
Yes. It all goes to P&L. Everything goes to P&L.
What were the merchant prices for this quarter and H1 compared to last year?
For the current six months, the average merchant price for solar was INR2.1 per unit, and for wind, it was INR5.13 per unit. Within the merchant capacity, about 34% of our capacities are wind merchant. Management added the split between solar and wind would be closer to 65-35. The blended merchant price is close to INR3.5.
On capacity utilization - this H1 solar was around 24.5% due to prolonged monsoon. On full year basis, how should we project this number for solar and wind on a stable basis?
On overall basis, we should be 100-basis-point to 200-basis-point more than last year. Comparing H1 solar of last year to H1 of this year - not going into quarter because weather cannot be determined in calendar year quarters. Definitely expecting 100-200 basis points more than last year. Khavda site will play a decent role in enhancing CUF since it has much better solar CUF than other sites. For wind, this time wind has not been good from last year to this year, but we expect it to be in similar range like last year. Last year was phenomenally good - we foresee this year at least meeting that.
Since government has stopped doing clean solar tenders, how much of our capacity is already blocked? Should we be bothered beyond the 50-gigawatt target for FY '30, or after the first 30-gigawatts?
You cannot look at all 50 gigawatts as all solar or 30 gigawatts as all solar. Solar remains the least cost input power. As time moves on, solar will be more utilized as input power for storage. Next five years you would not have pure-play solar tender but there would be solar requirement as input power to all storages. Let us not discount solar - we are blessed with best of solar in this country. Our tariffs are the best - currently talking of $0.03 or less than that on solar basis. It can be utilized in multiple facets, not only for providing power during daytime but also for storage capacity input power.
On current capacity - what is the run rate EBITDA, and is it fair to assume a lot of capacity added in the last six months is largely the INR2.42 solar one? What is the capex coming for that?
The run rate EBITDA that we are riding is about INR14,100 crores from a power sale perspective. From a solar perspective, that number between INR2.4 per unit to INR2.5 per unit is the number. Capex is basically INR4.5 crores, INR4 crores to INR4.5 crores between that per megawatt.