Merchant-tariff and ISTS-waiver tailwinds faded.

My first question is on your target to achieve 30 gigawatt by 2029. You are at 4.1 GW, so that's basically, you know, you're looking at five gigawatt annually from here on. What are the key constraints you think you'll have to overcome to achieve this target, whether it's in terms of transmission connectivity or labor, if you can elaborate a bit more on that?

I think it's an important question to look at how we are going to achieve. First and foremost, I think what we have achieved so far... the 4 gigawatts has given us the confidence and the learning which we are going to take forward. A rate of reaching 30 gigawatts is very well in place with our additional capacity. I think one of the learnings are, we have to create a good infrastructure, which we have created in the last 1.5 years for our own employees as well as for the labor, which is world class. You know, it is very important that in a place like Khavda, you have the infrastructure in place for the people to stay and work out there. We are the preferred developer in that region because of the infrastructure which we have created. Some of the learnings have also come from the environmental aspect, the management of rain and more importantly, the drains, the soil, which we are discovering. All those factors have made us now come to a conclusion that from now on, all of our learnings are going to help us definitely in achieving the 30 gigawatts by 2029. If you have been mapping our quarterly results, then in the last quarter itself, we have 2.6 gigawatts, which we have added in overall share. And then now we are going to take it forward.

And transmission, do you worry about that or is that largely under your control here?

We are expecting another 4 gigawatts to be added by June and 7 by the end of this year. I think this is an area where we are keeping a very close track on what's coming in so that our operational capacities can seamlessly flow from the evacuation capacities, which are being available. We are very happy to see the way the Ministry of Power is also monitoring these aspects, listening to us, mapping not only us, but other capacities too, and then making sure from there that the agencies who are entrusted with that work conform to the timelines which are expected from all the developers to commission their plant.

And if you can remind us, what is the contracted signed PPAs that you have and what is in the pipeline beyond that also? And some nature of those contracts, if you can elaborate?

Yes, sure. Thank you. So we have close to 33 gigawatts of projects, which are either in the form of contracted PPAs or the merchant capacities which we are already implementing. So roughly 30-odd gigawatts of PPA in there and 3-odd gigawatts of merchant capacity. And obviously, this is only if you look at it from the angle of what is contracted. A lot of our future power is actually getting into the things like merchant, storage etcetera. So a lot of feed is going there. We have said that overall portfolio, we will have a split of 25% and 75% of the capacities. And then within that framework, that 25% has the merchant and the C&I and the CFDs as the capacities. Rest all will be contracted capacities with the relevant DISCOMs and others. Viral Raval: So of the 14.2 gigawatts that is operational today, 14% is merchant. So basically, if you add the PPA pipeline and some more merchant projects, then it goes to 33 in total, operational plus the pipeline. Today, getting the PPAs, last year we got some 10 gigawatts worth of bids within our own contracting strategy where we had direct PPAs with Maharashtra, a lot of other PSP PPAs and hybrid PPAs. So within our contracting strategy, we could add 10 gigawatts. And that's what we have been saying that adding a PPA to what we want to do is dependent on how much and when I want to firm up the revenue stream. Earlier, we were not bidding for good time because we thought it is good that we hybrid our projects for whatever revenue stream we tie up. And that's where you see whatever we have won in the last one year has that tariff numbers being reflecting significantly better premiums. Now, within that strategy, me having a 33, 34 gigawatt as contracted capacity, I can easily add. I've added last year 10 gigawatt for the contracts. I can always add further more. So it depends on the opportunity which we want to work with. So within the overall framework of 50 gigawatt, if you say 25%, say twelve and a half gigawatt is the capacity which is supposed to remain in merchant, C&I and CFDs. So balance 37 odd gigawatt will be contracted capacity out of which we are already talking about 30 plus gigawatt as contracted. So there's nothing much left now to contract.

So just to follow up on the question, you said what is the capacity under construction right now? Is it 30 gigawatt of project currently under construction? And the follow up was that, as you said, is 30 gigawatt of capacity contracted already? Like, have we identified or have we signed the PPAs already?

Yes, when we say 33 gigawatt out of which, as I said, close to three gigawatts is merchant and the balance is contracted PPAs except for a small percentage, for which we have already got the LOAs which are in the process getting converted to PPAs. Raj Kumar Jain: So I think what we are saying, we are targeting 50 gigawatts by 2030. We today have 14,243 gigawatts already operational. Then we have a run rate. Currently we are targeting close to 5 gigawatts for the coming year. And then we have a growth rate of roughly 25% as a year-on-year increase. As I just explained to you, out of the 50 gigawatts, 25% is supposed to be targeted towards the merchant, C&I, and other types of contracts. And the balance is towards the PPAs of the traditional nature, but we will be doing high-grade within those PPAs so that we have a better revenue profile there.

Also for FY25 also we had a target of 5 gigawatts, and we achieved around 3.2. What were the major challenges we faced?

I think the important factor which we discussed across earlier today, which has been shared with you in our earlier meetings too, our interactions too, is the environment has not helped us. Our assumptions with respect to the environment remain there and the soil conditions there and the effect of the rains beyond the months where it was raining. I think there was some effect to it, which has now been taken care of. And these environmental aspects and our preparedness for the same is the prime reason. That's where we are coming back that in the last quarter after having all the learning, because once you have these impacts, then re-mobilization takes a short time, and sometimes it takes longer than it, because the labor has to come from outside and all those things. So we are taking a lot of, I would say, new initiatives to make sure that this year we are much better in respect to most of the learnings, or in fact all the learnings which we had last year. And that is why we are confident about adding 150% of our last year capacity addition. It is primarily coming from the learnings and how do we deal with it.

My last question is on the merchant sales. What kind of realizations are we getting at merchant and do we sell most of it on the exchanges?

Yes, so we have merchant capacities and both say in case of solar, the market is giving us around 3.1 - 3.2 as the weighted average revenues there, plus we also have the REC revenues attached to that. So the overall number would be around 3.6 to 3.7 as our expected realization. Now, that is for the last year. We expect markets likely around the same number for this year, and then probably let us see how it picks up. At the same time, I just want to convey in our merchant capacities which we have set up until now, we have the ISTS waiver also with them, which gives an additional value as the ISTS waiver goes off from June 2025. On the wind side, the realizations are around INR5.5, with the REC we are talking about roughly 6 and then as there again the ISTS waiver would again be a better value creation for us.

Going forward, we are seeing excess solar power in the system in maybe the next 2 to 3 years. What is the incentive for a developer to have merchant capacities at that point in time if the solar prices are going to be as low as INR1 rupee or less than INR1 during the day?

So I think what's -- just to be very -- so from a strategy perspective, we have been increasing share of the wind in our merchant portfolio, and you would see more and more such capacities being there. The solar capacity merchant has been targeted in a manner to also realize the value around the ISTS waiver until June '25. Capacities post-June '25, which we are putting up, have the capability of either serving the C&I market, as well as then be available as an input for some of the pumped storage which we are putting up. But at the same time, this is a market which you are seeing today, and as we move forward, we play this strategy dynamically to ensure that there is a maximum value which is realized for the capacities which we are putting up. Just a year back, you had merchant prices of even solar hours realizing more than INR 4. So we have to see how things move up. Last year, the overall growth of energy sector in India was 4.2% because of the lower growth rate in certain quarters. We expect much better scenarios playing out with India's growth now actually picking up. So some of these things will again help in some of the merchant prices. Ashish Khanna: I would add here that we should not be taking a very myopic view on a short-term basis for a business opportunity. I think merchant remains, and I think we are very balanced in our approach towards merchant. And of course, like Raj said, whenever there are PPA opportunities, we are well-placed to take full advantage of that. I think one factor is how cost-effectively we can execute our projects and how excellent we are in our operations. If we have these two strengths, then the opportunities can always be taken full advantage of as and when it comes.

You mentioned the slippages of 1 gigawatt, which happened most largely because of the impact of the rainfall which we had last year. Fair to assume the slippages was fully in Khavda, or there were some other places as well where we saw these kind of slippages?

No, Anuj. On other places, our plan to build a gigawatt in Rajasthan and 250 megawatt at Kadapa has been on track, absolutely on track. They are performing well. It was only, like you rightly understood, it was only in Khavda.

There is one very interesting chart in the presentation where you show the mix of sales, how power was sold across the years. And a large volume sold in FY '25 seems to be volume where you have a PPA, but it was sold on merchant. It happened a couple of years back as well, some infirm power sale. But if you could please share some color on this, how was such a big chunk of sale on the merchant where PPA was already there, was it all early commissioning or was it a grid constraint at the receiver end -- receiving end? What was the reason for that?

Yes, Nikhil, it is again what I mentioned earlier, the testimony of the execution excellence of Adani Green, that our projects have come earlier than what they were scheduled to be and the distribution company, where to go, has given us the NOC of selling this power in the merchant. So you have rightly guessed it, it is the project early commissioning and which is being fully utilized by us in selling this power in merchant. Raj Kumar Jain: Yes, Nikhil, a lot of this capacity is prior to their expected COD dates as per the PPA and that is where we have got the clearances from the offtakers that yes, this can be in the interim sold in the exchange market. Over a period, this obviously will move into the PPAs. At the same time, this is some kind of a cycle. So you would see for at least near future also that some of these capacities will be available for us for selling in the merchant market.

My second question was on the Chitravathi PSP. Any update on any PPAs for that asset or we do not plan to contract it in the near term?

Chitravathi PSP, the progress is going really well. We are on time when it comes to our execution. We have good amount of time still left for deciding on that revenue strategy with respect to that particular project. And we continue to watch the market. We have both the options open as I mentioned for keeping it or entering in the commercial market and then later signing it up or see if there are opportunities which are attractive for us to tie it up. So we keep our options open and we have good time to decide on that. Ashish Khanna: So Nikhil, if I can add to it. I think important factor from a strategic standpoint for us is to execute project early and best in the class. Now that gives us opportunity which you have been mentioning whether we get it on merchant or otherwise. So, currently our focus is to make sure that the Chitravathi project should be the project which is from the earliest among all the PSPs which anyone else is doing. And that gives us the leverage as well as the advantage of then tapping it across to various opportunities which are available in the market. And like I said, the strategy today is to execute that project in the least possible time.

There were a few assets, a few sort of projects which were listed as under construction a year back. For example, a 600 megawatt hybrid project with 2.41 tariff. And there were a couple of wind assets as well where the tariff was about 2.7, 2.71, ARE-7 and another one. We don't see that in the list of operating assets. Are those still under construction or is there a plan to defer them given the tariffs were on the lower side?

So the 600 megawatt hybrid is currently under implementation. As it finishes, you will hear the announcements regarding that particular project. We expect to have that commissioned sometime this year.

My first question is on the what is the timeline for the 5 gigawatt Maharashtra? Is it fair to assume that the timeline is two years?

Yes. It starts from two years and then every six months we have additional 1 gigawatt, 1 gigawatt each. So that is how it is there and we expect to execute it as per the PPA plan dynamics. So it's 2 gigawatt plus 1 gigawatt, 1 gigawatt each every year. Yes. So we intend to follow the timelines as per the contract agreement which has been signed. And if there are any changes on the same, of course it will be known to you.

My third question is what is the capacity or LOI in the entire 33 gigawatt where PPA is still due to be signed or concluded and an expectation on the PPA signings because we keep hearing that PPA signings are getting delayed. And does it also mean that the biddings have slowed down in the interim?

Yes, so roughly out of 9.6 gigawatt which we won in the last year, roughly 6.25 gigawatt we have already signed up. The balance of roughly 3 gigawatt which is yet to be signed. We are already in process of that capacity also something in the future. So, and in the recent capacities only. So as we know it takes some time for capacities to be signed. There is process and all of that which happens. So, from an exposure perspective we do not have much capacity which are supposed to be signed the PPAs, where the PPAs are pending. Even within this 9.6 gigawatt, roughly 1.4 gigawatt even currently have got the LOA process is clear. Ashish Khanna: So, if I can add on, see, I think it is not right on us to generalize the whole point of view about the PPAs being delayed. From our standpoint, two-third of what we have won in the last year has already been signed off as part of the PPAs. The balance are very recent and I do not see much challenge at least for us, but it is not right on us to generalize on a general comment on whether they have been delayed or not. We are very focused on actually what we are doing in the process.

So, what is the capex expected in F '26. And any color on data will be helpful?

So, in FY '26, as he said, there is a 5 gigawatt of capacity that we are looking to commission, out of which nearly about 95% of that is now under various sanctions as such. So, we have the debt tie-up done for that and we do not see any challenge on that kind of debt tie-up. It will be generally from domestic sources for the current year, because we already have the sanctions in place. So, it is generally coming from domestic sources, yes.

So, what is the timeline for execution of the UP PSP? Is it 5 years or 4 years? Can you please conform that number?

72 months, 6 years.