Throughline · holding view Deep analysis Q4 FY25
BHARTIARTL Bharti Airtel Ltd · Power & infra Q4 FY25 · concall
Pattern: capital allocation across africa

AGR-parity push faded to silence as Q4 dividend stepped up 50% to Rs.24, ICIL share-swap took Africa to 78%, and Mr.

3 deflections · 6 weak · 10 clean pushback across 9 of 19 Q&A turns

Focused evidence 9 of 19

Piyush Choudhary · HSBCweak

On capital allocation, would you intend to further increase stake in Airtel Africa or Indus Towers and is there a minimum net debt to EBITDA threshold beyond which surplus capital would be used to pay a dividend? Also any colour on how much lower FY2026 capex can be, and the reason for the surge in Airtel Business capex in Q4?

The Airtel Business Q4 capex spike was driven by Cloud (going to market in June) and additional data center investments, otherwise business as usual; FY2026 capex will trend downwards as rural rollout slows substantially though specific quantum cannot be shared. On Africa, Airtel will look to buy more given its growth (almost 2x India), strong dividend, and the GBP-denominated foreign exchange hedge from buying earlier at 132 pence vs current 170+ pence; Indus has no buyback plans currently but a committee is reviewing dividend/buyback options. Airtel wants complete flexibility on cash deployment via balancing debt, dividends, buybacks, and selective investments.

Piyush Choudhary · HSBCdeflection

Any minimum net debt to EBITDA threshold or do you have complete flexibility there as well?

The company will continue to deleverage by paying off high-cost spectrum debt to lower interest burden, while simultaneously stepping up dividend. No specific threshold is being set.

Gaurav Malhotra · Axis Capitalweak

Is there scope for formalization of dividend policy as a percentage of net income or FCF? What kind of traction are you seeing in FWA in terms of subscriber adds, and where are we on the transition to 5G SA?

There is no specific dividend policy being announced beyond the stepped-up dividend already declared, with cash deployed flexibly between deleveraging, dividends, and growth investments. On FWA, about 40-45% of overall home net adds are coming from FWA but the strategy prefers fiber as superior technology, with home additions targeted to step up beyond the 812,000 net adds this quarter. On 5G SA, transition will happen prudently after 4G traffic is offloaded to 5G, and FWA will likely be the first port of call for SA before mobile.

Gaurav Malhotra · Axis Capitaldeflection

Why is mobile capex sort of moving up in Q4 - is it just seasonality like a year-end push or something more?

One should not read too much into quarterly variations as they can reflect seasonality or material timing; the important view is full-year capex which will certainly come down next year.

Ankur Rudra · JP Morganweak

On the wireless side in Q4 capex was back to a higher run rate without meaningful tower/base station additions - was there core-side investment or has SA investment begun? On homes, will the higher capex be sticky into FY2026 given accelerated rollout intent?

One should not read too much into Q4 capex as some equipment came in late in the quarter; full-year FY2026 capex will trend downwards. On homes, fiber rollout capability is the constraint and the company would like to see it step up materially, though this will not significantly impact overall capex profile given the small absolute amount; targeting well above 2.5 million home passes per quarter vs the 1.7 million done.

Sanjesh Jain · ICICI Securitiesweak

On data center you seem very confident with a release indicating doubling capacity in three years - can you elaborate? Are any capex numbers disclosed for next three years?

Significant capacities are coming on board in FY2026 and FY2027 from investments made over the last 24 months and continuing over the next 8-9 months, plus discussions with very large players to accelerate further. No separate capex numbers are disclosed but spend is roughly in line with prior periods possibly slightly higher and rolled into overall company capex. The previously mentioned ~Rs.5,000 crores doubling programme remains on track.

Kunal Vora · Unidentifiedweak

Vodafone Idea has launched 5G services and is investing in its network - are you seeing impact on postpaid additions and could the market share gains trend slow down?

Without commenting on competitors, postpaid net adds have been around 600,000 per quarter for the last two quarters as the post-tariff-repair effect normalized, and these should step up in coming quarters given the large base of high-value users and the family-plan opportunity to aggregate household members across operators.

Kunal Vora · Unidentifieddeflection

You announced a second buyback in Africa and indicated commitment - would you look to delist the business? What is the plan for Airtel partly paid?

On Africa, the company will not get ahead of itself - it remains a terrific GBP-denominated dividend-paying asset and the buyback opportunity will continue. On the partly paid shares, there is no requirement to call them at this point and they will be called only when needed.

Vivekanand Subbaraman · Ambit Capitalweak

Is there an aspirational capex-to-revenue ratio Hexacom can reach over time, perhaps sooner than Airtel given lighter business mix?

Hexacom does not have high-investment businesses like Nxtra or submarine cables so investment is lighter, but it also lacks pan-India digital businesses, making strict comparison with global peers (which match Airtel's verticals) difficult; it remains a mobile-first, mostly mobile-only business. Directionally, absolute capex will come down without compromising required growth capex including home fiberization.

Other Q&A (10)
Gaurav Malhotra · Axis Capital

Is data center an opportunity which you would pursue in a more focused manner within the company?

Data center has been a modest area for Airtel with less than 12% market share which the company is not pleased with; significant capacity is in the build stage and will come on board over the next 18 months. Airtel is also having conversations with multiple very large players to explore additional ways to step up the data center business.

Ankur Rudra · JP Morgan

How are you thinking about free cash flow deployment for next year given multiple debt prepayment opportunities, and can you comment on the AGR conversion you have applied for?

On AGR conversion, Airtel sought a non-discriminatory level playing field on the option to convert; whether to convert is a Board decision but the option clarification was the key ask. Harjeet added that free cash flow is increasing, India leverage is still slightly higher at 2.5 (vs Africa low and Indus very low) so deleveraging of India remains important; further high-cost DoT and perpetual bond prepayment opportunities will continue along with first-time DoT installments due after the four-year moratorium.

Sanjesh Jain · ICICI Securities

On home services, is there opportunity beyond FTTH/FWA and content - smart home, security, storage - to expand the addressable market within the home? On AI, why not deploy GPU as a service given your strong portfolio and understanding to be more economical on enterprise side?

Airtel launched home surveillance/security cameras two years ago and acquired about half a million sticky customers, but the business is niche with low ARPU and high effort, so the company is going slow to focus on capturing disproportionate share of home broadband first. On AI, Airtel is embedding AI at the heart of its business but on GPU-as-a-Service it has decided to be a fast follower rather than early mover given rapid evolution of chip cost/quality, and has parked that opportunity for now.

Kunal Vora · Unidentified

DTH subsidies will be removed - if 89 million high income households shift to home broadband IPTV, will DTH lose relevance in coming years?

DTH faces challenges from technology disruption (IPTV+broadband), regulatory asymmetry (price-fixed DTH vs unregulated broadband, vs cable), and free Doordarshan/free dish content, but there will still be 150-160 million TV homes with broadband only reaching 75-80 million in five years, leaving a large linear-TV pool for DTH. The brave call to strip subsidies has been taken and competition is expected to follow.

Aliasgar Shakir · Motilal Oswal

On tariff architecture - what are the possible options given industry has to move together; can the next tariff hike be more from a change of architecture? On capital allocation, with potentially Rs.150,000 crores of free cash over three years, are you looking at any large areas of investment in India or outside even after dividends and buybacks?

On tariff architecture, entry-level pricing should not go up much but middle-tier data allowances should reduce dramatically to drive upgrades from small to extra-large plans; India price ratio is 100:250 vs Indonesia's 100:500 illustrating the room for stratification. On capital, Airtel will generate substantial free cash and management requests flexibility to balance deleveraging, dividend step-up, buyback (Indus or Africa or other expansion/acquisition) while remaining fiscally prudent.

Sanjesh Jain · ICICI Securities

On Bharti Hexacom wireless - Rajasthan being 80% of revenue typically has higher incoming due to tourists in Q3/Q4 but the seasonality difference between Hexacom and Airtel is small - is something missing? On home broadband, has FWA salience for difficult-terrain Rajasthan and Northeast circles driven the strong 10% sequential growth? On dividend payout ratio of 33-34% vs Airtel's 35%, with stronger net debt position, any reason for Hexacom to be conservative?

On in-roamers, as Hexacom grows share with a larger base the absolute traveler count does not rise proportionately so seasonality impact may marginally trend down in percentage terms. On homes, FWA is indeed a very strong offering for Hexacom and the lion's share of Q4 home acquisitions came via FWA given the lack of wired broadband in large parts of these two circles. On dividend, the marginal 33-35% gap should not be over-read - Hexacom lacks Airtel's other growth engines so cash will be balanced prudently across objectives including possible early prepayment of FY2021/FY2022 spectrum at 7.2% if interest rates fall.

Vivekanand Subbaraman · Ambit Capital

On Bharti Hexacom incremental EBITDAaL margin which is around 70% despite 5G costs - without a tariff hike, how should we think about FY2026 incremental margins? Any colour on capex trajectory for the two segments?

This was a low-opex quarter and costs like tower-anniversary escalations, energy and the WOW project will continue to push costs up; Q3-Q4 post-tariff-hike is more representative, but EBITDAaL margins should improve in future given most rural rollout is done. On capex, Hexacom capex will trend downwards from FY2025 since the transport job in these two circles is not very large.

Gaurav Malhotra · Axis Capital

On premiumization for Bharti Hexacom, is it different versus Bharti Airtel at aggregate level given these are relatively lower income circles?

The premiumization job is the same with a different path; postpaid penetration is low in these circles though absolute affordable customers are similar, and FWA can become big in Northeast given high education levels. Airtel-Hexacom ARPU gap has narrowed (Airtel 245, Hexacom 242), nuances differ (e.g., focus on data top-up vs international roaming) but the quality-customer job is valid.

Gaurav Malhotra · Axis Capital

Given FWA's salience for these two circles and that FWA eventually requires SA, is there a plan to accelerate the SA transition in Hexacom versus Airtel?

There is no acceleration target; SA transition is a function of 5G infrastructure capacity utilization and currently there is adequate capacity for FWA rollout. As FWA capacity gets choked, options include laying fibers to free capacity or moving to SA, but Hexacom is some distance away across both circles and not racing to a deadline.

Gaurav Malhotra · Axis Capital

Is the fiber for these two circles residing in the Airtel homes segment or in the mobile segment?

It is mostly sitting in the mobile segment.

Prepared remarks (4 blocks)
Gopal Vittal welcomed participants to the Q4 FY2025 earnings call and highlighted ESG progress including a Nokia Green 5G collaboration, AI/ML deployment in radio networks and Nxtra data centers, and over 30,708 solarized sites. For FY2025, consolidated revenues came in under Rs.<strong>173,000 crore</strong>s (impacted by Africa currency devaluation), EBITDAaL after FLO and lease obligations grew 21.2% with margin expansion of about 2.3%, India revenue and EBITDAaL ex-Indus grew 15.3% and 20.2%, EBITDAaL margin reached 48% (up ~2%), India capex was about Rs.30,270 crores (lower than FY2024), and operating free cash flow was just under Rs.31,400 crores. Over the last two years, Rs.42,000 crores of high-cost DoT debt was prepaid and India net debt to EBITDAaL stands at 1.5. In Q4, consolidated revenues were Rs.47,876 crores (impacted by B2B quality-revenue focus), India revenues ex-Indus were Rs.33,100 crores, EBITDAaL margin was 50.7% (up 1.4%), and another Rs.5,985 crores of high-cost DoT spectrum debt was prepaid. Mobility added 5 million revenue-earning customers and 6.6 million smartphone data customers, postpaid net adds were 0.6 million, ARPU was Rs.245 (Rs.248 on equal-day basis), 25,000 new 5G sites were added in FY2025, and the quarter closed with 135 million 5G customers. Broadband added 8.1 lakh customers and rolled out two million FTTH home passes, with new exclusive partnerships for Apple TV/Apple Music and a SpaceX/Starlink agreement. DTH added 76,000 customers aided by IPTV launch, and structural changes are being made by eliminating subsidies. Airtel Business reported revenue of Rs.5,316 crores (sequential decline due to shedding commoditized low-margin businesses), and two subsea cables (SEA-ME-WE 6 and 2Africa Pearls) were landed. Payments Bank monthly transacting users reached 96 million (up 10% sequentially), annualized revenue run rate was Rs.2,900 crores (up 35% YoY), and deposits crossed Rs.3,600 crores (up 30% YoY).
Africa underlying constant-currency revenue growth was <strong>3.5%</strong> sequentially with reported growth of 6.3%, EBITDAaL was Rs.4,085 crores at 35.9% margin, and net debt to EBITDAaL was 0.9. Strategic priorities include diversified portfolio (Africa 24%, India mobile 56%, India non-mobile 14%, Indus 7%), winning quality customers across broadband (629 cities, 1.7M+ home passes/quarter), mobile (postpaid, smartphone upgrades, international roaming), and B2B (Cloud, Cybersecurity, CPaaS, IoT, data centers); brilliant customer experience including 100m x 100m grid view, anti-SPAM tools (27.5 billion SPAM calls identified, 16% reduction since September 2024); leveraging digital capabilities and embedding AI; and war on waste (Rs.2,200+ crores of network opex saved in FY2025). Gopal reiterated FY2026 capex will be lower than FY2025 and emphasized the need for further tariff repair to support investments and ROCE. For Bharti Hexacom, Soumen Ray noted FY2025 revenue and EBITDAaL growth of about 21% and 27% respectively, EBITDAaL margin of 44.2%, operating free cash of Rs.2,300 crores, net debt of Rs.3,700 crores ex-leases, and net debt to EBITDAaL around 1. Q4 revenue was Rs.2,289 crores (up 1.7% sequentially), smartphone customer additions were 7.1 lakh, REC base added 5.1 lakh with 1.8% churn, ARPU was Rs.242, EBITDA was Rs.1,220 crores at 46.6% margin (up 30 bps), net income was Rs.468 crores, operating free cash flow was Rs.641 crores, and Rs.858 crores of FY2024 auction high-cost DoT debt was prepaid (8.65% coupon). Soumen also noted that the proposed tower sale to Indus Towers has been put in abeyance pending a fresh process meeting TCIL's PSU requirements.
Bharti Airtel consolidated FY2025 revenues came in under Rs.<strong>173,000 crore</strong>s, impacted by Africa currency devaluation through most of the year. EBITDAaL after FLO and lease obligations grew 21.2% with margin improvement of about 2.3%. India revenue and EBITDAaL ex-Indus Towers grew 15.3% and 20.2% respectively. India EBITDAaL margin was 48%, expanded by about 2% despite absorbing 5G cost and continued network expansion. India capex for FY2025 was about Rs.30,270 crores (lower than FY2024 as guided). Operating free cash flow was just under Rs.31,400 crores. Over two years, Rs.42,000 crores of high-cost DoT debt was prepaid. India net debt to EBITDAaL stands at 1.5. Q4 consolidated revenues were Rs.47,876 crores, India revenues ex-Indus were Rs.33,100 crores, EBITDAaL margin was 50.7% (up 1.4%), and another Rs.5,985 crores of high-cost DoT spectrum debt was prepaid in Q4. Mobility added 5 million customers to revenue earning base and 6.6 million smartphone data customers. Postpaid net adds were 0.6 million, ARPU was Rs.245 (Rs.248 on equal-day basis). The company added about 25,000 new 5G sites in FY2025 and closed with 135 million 5G customers. Broadband added 8.1 lakh customers with two million FTTH home passes. Digital TV added 76,000 customers. Airtel Business reported revenue of Rs.5,316 crores.
Payments Bank monthly transacting users were <strong>96 million</strong> (up 10% sequentially), annualized revenue run rate Rs.2,900 crores (up 35% YoY), deposits over Rs.3,600 crores (up 30% YoY). Africa underlying constant-currency revenue growth was 3.5% sequentially, reported growth was 6.3%, EBITDAaL was Rs.4,085 crores at 35.9% margin, net debt to EBITDAaL was 0.9. Bharti Hexacom FY2025 revenue and EBITDAaL grew about 21% and 27%, EBITDAaL margin expanded to 44.2%. Operating free cash was Rs.2,300 odd crores. Net debt excluding leases was about Rs.3,700 crores with net debt to EBITDAaL around 1. Q4 revenue was Rs.2,289 crores (up 1.7% sequentially), smartphone customer addition 7.1 lakh (vs 4.5 lakh prior quarter), REC base added 5.1 lakh with churn of 1.8% vs 1.9% prior, ARPU Rs.242, EBITDA Rs.1,220 crores at 46.6% margin (up 30 bps), net income Rs.468 crores, operating free cash flow Rs.641 crores, and Hexacom prepaid Rs.858 crores of FY2024 auction high-cost DoT debt at 8.65% coupon, leaving only FY2021 and FY2022 spectrum dues remaining.
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