Refused to commit on solar pumps revenue order.
- Wires procurement strategy capex — answer hedged.
- Solar pumps revenue order — question deflected.
- Wires strategy pricing influencer — answer hedged.
On the wires business, what is going to be our procurement strategy? Are we going to manufacture or procure from third parties? What kind of CAPEX and OPEX costs this business may entail? And how are we looking at sales ramping up and what are some of the initial targets?
This is a business that we are currently beginning based on outsourced product. We have spent the last six to nine months doing a bunch of work on the go-to market as well as the supply chain. The products are ready, and we expect that, in select markets, near full range of residential wires will become available in the next six to seven weeks. We do expect that this is a very large business, about Rs.36,000-37,000 crores, where we have a right to win, and over a period I would expect us to get a fair share, if not a leadership share, in the near to medium term.
On the solar pump side, can you also highlight the revenues and any order book? I could not find that in the presentation.
We do not disclose that specifically, allow us to skip that. Our order book is robust. As and when we are getting an order, we do make a SE announcement around it. And that execution is ongoing. It is fair to say that our solar pumps business revenue has more than doubled YoY, but that is the limit of the guidance that we give.
On wires front, could you share some color on the strategy you are going to deploy in terms of pricing or influencer engagement, distribution? Some more insights would be helpful.
We announced #TechwithHeart and held a press meet. Similar to that, we will have an engagement with analysts and a press meet where we will talk about the product range and what we are differentiating with. Strategically, we are entering because there is a right to win, we have a go-to-market, and the brand is very strong. Whenever Crompton enters a category, it's to approach towards a leadership, and this is in line with that.
On wires, right now we are outsourcing but probably with scales moving up somewhere in FY27 we plan to invest more into this business and set up own manufacturing facilities? Continuing with wires, distributors would be new which you need to get on board. How are things progressing? Second, on fans price hikes required to offset commodity inflation and INR depreciation, can the industry take those kinds of price hikes and should we expect margins to remain at normalized levels going forward?
On wires, currently our sourcing strategy is outsourced. We do this quite well across many products, ensuring product quality is strictly maintained at reasonable prices. Currently our greatest strength is our brand and go-to-market, and we do not, as of now in the next year, anticipate significant capital investments in this. We will see as we go along and get to scale. As far as fans, commodity prices are a concern. We would want to continue to take constructive pricing actions to defray cost increases, which you can see coming through in our margins this quarter. I am hoping that the industry will be as responsible as we have been.
On the price hike, you indicated some substitute RM to minimize the impact of RM inflation. Last quarter you indicated around one and a half percent of price hike in the fan. What percentage of RM have you covered with the price hike and what kind of substitute RM are you taking?
Some of these alternative RMs are very strategic and competitive information, so allow us not to disclose. There is a flagship UNNATI cost program we have been running for many years that continues to provide good accrual including technical levers and commercial negotiations. There has been a price hike taken in January, net price increase of about one to one and a half percentage. We are looking at two more rounds of price increase that would happen in Q4 and Q1.
My next question is related to your announcement earlier of a greenfield expansion with the 3.5 billion. Where are we on that?
That is progressing and I would venture that we would be in a position to give you more details in the near term. It's progressing very well.
I understand Idea First series have traction well and presentation mentions contribution has increased. If you could quantify how much it has increased versus previous quarter and overall in terms of volume, what has been the growth for Butterfly this quarter year on year?
Specificity Rachna, we do not share. Idea First series has played a significant role, not only the ability to sell premium products but also uplifting the overall brand. We have been a number two player in many categories apart from leadership in Gas stove. Now we are challenging the number one player by meaningful innovation. From a volume growth perspective, it's been a quarter led by pressure cooker as called out in our press release. It is about a single digit volume growth that we have delivered.
How confident are we in solar rooftop business outside Telangana and Andhra Pradesh - would we be able to scale up aggressively and gain a strong foothold?
Solar rooftop business is shaping up quite well. Currently, we are executing the orders that we have, but simultaneously we are also proceeding apace on the B2C offering. I am hoping that in the near term, we will be able to formally disclose orders in that segment. The way we have scaled up our solar business is already making a material difference to our gross margins in both solar rooftop and solar pumps because now we have the scale, which positions us better to provide a good product in the retail space.
I see a lot of volatility in your margins. If somebody asked to look at the company, what should be the appropriate margin? With you entering wires and cables, what should be the steady state of margin? What is management looking at?
The gross margin and EBIT margin structure of different businesses is different. Fans have high gross margin with reasonable cost below it. B2B lighting has lower gross margin but very little cost below. As the mix changes, the gross margin structure will change. In fans, we are coming away from a period of intense competition and high commodity prices. We have taken price increases and worked on the product, showing improvement in margins. In lighting, we changed product mix, introduced higher margin products and worked on supply chain. In Butterfly, premium products are bringing higher margin. The margin profile is going to evolve going forward.
What would be the total impact of BEE norm changes on fan side? What were the cost escalation and what is the commodity escalation happening? You highlighted you have taken 1-1.5% hike and possibly more two hikes are in store in Q4 and Q1. What sort of hike are you planning and whether it will cover all the cost impact? Will margin be impacted till Q1 as the entire cost pass-on won't happen at least till Q1?
This is not only going to be a price hike, there is going to be cost improvement we are working through UNNATI, coupled with mix going to play a significant role. In terms of cost of BEE 2.0, some of these things we are probably ready ahead of time, and we could mitigate a large part of the cost increase. Yes, commodity is going up. That's where we talked about baking in two price increases - one already happened, one more in Q4 and one more in Q1. We think that should help us to largely offset coupled with the other cost initiatives.
On the solar rooftop business, where we had won some reasonably large-sized tenders, what is the progress? Have we started recognizing some revenues from that, or can we expect something starting from fourth quarter? Is it from state tender order only or direct sales to consumers?
We have started recognizing revenues. We have booked about Rs.18-19 crores in the solar business last quarter and we expect this to keep ramping up in the coming quarters. Currently, it is from the state tender orders, B2B orders. This quarter, I am expecting that the other direct-to-consumers will also kick in.
On wire and cable, will it be limited to wires or do you at some point also plan to enter cables? By when should we expect full pan India launch of the wires? Would we also target institutional clients or only the retail network?
We are currently entering residential wires, which is an overwhelming majority of the market. Cables will be an area that we potentially keep looking to evaluate and enter as we go along. Currently, we are going to be available in limited markets, and over a period we will become available pan India, like our other products are.
On water heaters, sometime back management had highlighted that we were number one on E-com but number five or six on GT. Have you gained significant market share in that space?
In water heaters, I am now delighted to say that we are number two by market share in GT. So, we wanted to ramp up our presence in GT. That is what's been happening over the last couple of quarters.
In terms of fans, the price hikes in induction fans will be far higher than in BLDC fans. Do you see the category of induction fan phasing out in five-six years like CRT televisions? Will that automatically lead to premiumization of BLDC and Crompton? And second, on synergies between new categories like mobile accessories, cable wire, solar rooftops, fans where distribution overlap will be very minimal?
I don't necessarily agree. The kind of cost increases in induction motors depends on the technology and work being done inside, which we have been working on for the last one and a half years. I do not think that induction motors will necessarily get priced out in this market. An induction motor fan delivers air delivery that cannot be matched by any other technology, not now and not for some time. We are the largest ceiling fan company in the world and that leverage will allow us to competitively offer both induction and BLDC fans in the long run.
On synergies between new categories like mobile accessories, cable wire, solar rooftops, where the distribution network overlap will be very minimal (mobile accessories largely e-comm), how do you see synergies between all these products working out?
Fundamentally, we had a clear called out strategy that TAM expansion is going to be crucial, divided into play-to-win and play-to-participate. The large categories that we are entering as play-to-win include solar pumps, solar rooftop, and now wires. With this, the TAM is moving from Rs.80,000 crores to almost Rs.1.5 to 1.6 lakhs. Mobile etc. is a simple play-to-participate category. While Crompton is extremely strong in general trade, we are also the number one e-commerce player in the segments that we operate in.
Just to follow up on wires with regards to channel synergies. Retailers would be largely the same, but for distributors, you need to get distributors on board. How do we plan to progress wires reach into a greater number of states?
We have good synergy on many categories where distributors overlap. Groundwork has already been done amongst the number of distributors we have, where we have synergies, which market we need to appoint a new distributor and how to go about it. Consciously we are entering in few states, there is a value proposition with which we are going to test these markets. As the value proposition gets accepted, there is a national scale up that would happen. Right now, it is a very cautious, clear capital allocation on a growth category to expand our TAM.
On Butterfly, what is the primary driver of gross margin improvement given raw material prices have remained volatile?
We did talk about our change in go to market sometime back, and that is paying us off. We have two parts: first, premiumizing our own portfolio - we launched the Idea First Series in Q2 this year, which started doing well and our contribution is now significant. Second, we are in sync in terms of taking our price increases in line with price increases happening in the market. So, it is a mix of price increases and premiumization.
Every time a leading company in our industry enters an adjacency, the rationale is leveraging brand and distribution, but very rarely does that company become a top two player. Even with meaningful revenue share, profit share is minuscule. We have seen it with wires and cable - leading peer who did fans never really got profits. Even our lighting business over the decade has not done much in growth or profits. Why will wires and cables be any different?
I cannot tell you what other people have done. As far as Crompton is concerned, we entered an adjacent category of solar pumps two and a half years ago and our business has steadily and profitably grown. In the last quarter alone where the solar pumps market de-grew, we more than doubled our sales, meaning significant share improvement. Our lighting business had a marked time for a few years earlier, but over the last two years, it has been an area of significant focus, with leading growth and leading margins. We do believe that wires is another area where we have a right to win.
(Follow-up context on track record.)
I would urge to go back and look at history. While fans followed lighting, today we are India's number one and world's number one player in fans. In pumps, today we are India's number one company in residential pumps. In water geyser, we are number one in e-commerce, number two in GT. In kitchen, we got Butterfly from a top six and we are a top three player. In air coolers, we came from seven or eight to top three. Solar pumps is already touching top three. In the past 10 years, we have not entered a category to fish around for short-term duration; category strategy is very well thought through.
We are the number one company in the world in Fans. How about thinking aggressively in terms of exporting these offerings and probably garner more market share outside India?
As the world's leading ceiling fans company, exports are an area of focus. I am very happy to announce that in the last quarter, we have demonstrated our focus on this area by hiring a very well experienced team on that segment. We have always had a team, but the idea is to take it to the next level. To that extent, we have significantly strengthened our team in exports the last quarter itself.
Can you mention how is the situation of channel inventory when it comes to fans, both with the company as well as with the channel partners on the new rating fans and the old rating with the channel partners?
It's fair to say that the channel had a fair amount of old star rated fans, some of which they have sold off in the last month. We, of course, being Crompton, from day one started selling only the new star rated fans from the 1st January. I do believe that the season so far has been shaping up decently.
We are the goods company and now recently entered solar related business - solar pump and solar rooftop. What are the strong reasons to enter the solar business? Does the company have enough bandwidth to compete with the established players? Is it because there may be a slow growth in electric goods?
We are great believers in doing things that we understand well. We have been a pumps company for the last 50 years and are the leading residential pumps company in India. The heart of solar pumps is pumps. We are continuing to grow our business at 100% plus every quarter and have quickly become one of the largest players with a strong profitability profile. For solar rooftops, this is very much an adjacency. Shortly after we entered, we announced an order book of close to Rs.500 crores. We are not interested in entering businesses in which we are not going to be leaders.
But our growth in the electric goods will remain constant or will it grow faster?
Last year, our traditional businesses pumps and fans suffered along with the entire segment because of adverse season. But these businesses will continue to be great profit and revenue growth drivers going forward. In fans, we have been stepping up our BLDC range - sequentially our BLDC range has grown materially 50% plus, gaining market share 5% plus. In pumps, we now have a full product range including Agri and specialty pumps, and while that segment has been degrowing for the rest of the market, we are growing very strongly.
On solar rooftop, there is a Rs.365 crore order book and you highlighted it's not B2C, it's more B2B. Can you give some more color, like is it B2B or B2G, and the procurement strategy - are you procuring from a domestic manufacturer or importing?
The order book that we started with in our solar rooftop business is not Rs.365 crores, it is Rs.500 crores. While this ordering has been through the medium of the government, the product we are selling is the same product we are selling in the B2C business. We are installing rooftops at homes in Andhra Pradesh in 38,000 homes - it is just that the government has intermediated in that order. The supply chain we built up alongside our solar pumps business, with ongoing arrangements with panel suppliers, inverter suppliers, AC/DC suppliers - because we are buying products at such large scale, that is leading us to be more competitive.
On the solar rooftop business, when will the Rs.500 crore order be executed? Secondly, as it is a government order, will it lead to stretch on working capital days?
The expectation is that this order book will be executed over approximately the next 9 to 12 months. This last quarter, we have already executed about Rs.19 crores of solar rooftop sales. These are government orders, but we have a reasonable payment schedule agreed with the government. Working capital will be above expectations in this segment and has already been baked into our margins. We have been making reasonably quick recoveries of receivables from the government in our large solar pumps business.