Throughline · holding view Deep analysis Q2 FY26
CUMMINSIND Cummins India Limited · Capital goods Q2 FY26 · concall
Pattern: power gen growth ex

BESS launched as new product narrative.

7 deflections · 11 weak · 24 clean pushback across 18 of 42 Q&A turns

Focused evidence 18 of 42

Partikshit · HDFC Securitiesweak

Of the 49% growth in power gen, ex of data centers, what was the like-to-like growth in the core power gen business?

Approximately 40% of the power gen sales in this particular quarter came from data centers, with the large amount coming from data center project execution which is lumpy business. The remaining was across different segments.

Partikshit · HDFC Securitiesdeflection

What was the Y-o-Y contribution of data centers last quarter so we can normalise core power gen growth?

That may not be the right comparison because project demand is lumpy - last year it was spread across different quarters while this quarter saw a lot of execution come together. That doesn't happen always in normal course of business.

Renu Baid · IIFL Capitalweak

In domestic power gen, what could be the key upside triggers for growth in CY '26 / FY27 and where do you see challenges?

Backup power demand continues from realty, commercial realty, construction, quick commerce and mission-critical segments. The data center market is slowly picking up; India is not yet the fastest-growing data center market in the world (U.S., China, Europe are growing faster), which is actually an opportunity if India catches up.

Renu Baid · IIFL Capitalweak

With CPCB IV pricing settled and commodity costs heading north, can you retain 35-36% gross margins over the next 12-15 months?

The endeavour is always to maintain or expand margins. Competitive intensity in power gen is increasing every quarter, but volume leverage from strong execution including data centers helps. Cost reduction efforts and product mix changes are the key levers - it depends on whether high-volume conditions sustain.

Balasubramanian · Arihant Capitalweak

Which power gen subsegments (data centers, e-commerce, manufacturing) have highest growth visibility over next 2-3 years and what operational changes are you making to reduce lead times in data centers?

Power gen growth is very broad-based and we don't anticipate change. Demand depends on the economy growing higher than 6% GDP and government/private investment. On data centers, we are continuously working on reducing lead times and improving capacity, with continuous endeavour over the last year and going forward.

Aditya Mongia · Kotak Securitiesweak

On the second mention of competitive intensity in HHP - what are competitors doing differently that makes you concerned?

I may not be able to say what competition is doing differently - we just see a lot of competitive intensity across the board. Many players in LHP and medium HP, slightly fewer in higher HP, all with ready CPCB IV+ product range. We encounter more of our competition in every deal.

Aditya Mongia · Kotak Securitiesweak

Will competitive intensity become a hurdle to expanding margins by 100 bps every year - is it more price-driven?

Price gets adjusted in the market based on customer segment movement. But our margins are a blend of power gen, industrial, exports and aftermarket - we have a good blend and good levers to play with across the board, not just price-dependent.

Mahesh Bendre · LIC Mutual Fundweak

First half growth was 27% but full year guidance is double-digit; is double-digit obvious and can you sustain similar performance on a higher base?

This quarter had a lot of data center project execution which won't repeat to that extent in the next half. Exports will see softness due to inventory correction. There is demand and supply is catching up - if we play it well we could continue on the growth trajectory, but these are factors that could impact going forward.

Mahesh Bendre · LIC Mutual Funddeflection

If we get a hyperscaler data center order today, how many months to deliver?

That is a very difficult question to answer because different data centers buy different nodes of engines and gensets with different lead times. There's an average answer there but it differs by node, and we have to manage the order book to maintain lead times for all customers.

Priyankar Biswas · JM Financialdeflection

Since pricing has stabilised post CPCB IV, what is the average increase in realisation today versus the fag end of CPCB II?

That is a very difficult question to answer. I wouldn't be able to give you that data point.

Priyankar Biswas · JM Financialdeflection

Can you give a range of your market shares in LHP, MHP and HHP and how those have changed over the last year?

We do not get any syndicated research in that space, so it will be very difficult for me to share any ranges with you for market share.

Priyankar Biswas · JM Financialdeflection

Would it be fair to say you have largely maintained your market share, or possibly increased?

If there was syndicated research telling me the exact volume of power gen sold in the market or any genset registration data, I could have answered. In the lack of that data, it will be very difficult to say.

Atul Tiwari · JPMorganweak

What is the basis of competition for smaller players given your industry-leading brand and technology - is it price only?

I may not be able to comment on competition. Competition in the market has brands - domestic and global, including CPCB IV+ products. They have a product range, price, brand and established channels - so they have done all of this.

Mohit Pandey · Citigroupweak

Is industrial demand impacted by monsoon lost or can it spill over, and what is the new product launch pipeline beyond railways?

Construction demand can come back over time but depends on construction velocity which has slowed. Mining demand depends on Coal India tenders which haven't moved at the pace anticipated for two years. Beyond railways, the others are smaller - there is increased government focus on marine, with much higher activity than seen in the last decade, though it remains a small revenue contributor.

Amit Anwani · PL Capitaldeflection

Medium- to long-term, are exports likely to grow double-digit, and any ex-India geographies for data center exports given the closer-to-customer constraint?

Exports has been a tough play; we cannot commit to double-digit growth for the next 5 years because we don't understand those end markets as well as India. Europe has long-term growth challenges, Latin America has credit issues, and Africa/Middle East face Chinese player onslaught. On data centers, we don't see other markets growing at U.S./China/Europe pace.

Amit Anwani · PL Capitaldeflection

Given inventory correction, will full-year exports be flattish to single digit this year?

May not be able to say. In the past years we've always seen inventory correction in our channel; we do see a little sluggishness in order buildup as of now. We will have to see how it turns out at the end of the year.

Amit Anwani · PL Capitalweak

On the double-digit guidance and volume growth - can the company sustain double-digit volume growth for the next couple of years?

Volume growth double digit is a difficult answer because in power gen the nodes keep shifting - if customers move to higher nodes, lower volumes can still be good business. We are maintaining double-digit growth guidance just for this year - that's the best I can share at this stage.

Amit Anwani · PL Capitalweak

Are you expecting more competitive intensity in LHP and further price normalisation impact going forward?

We expect intensity because more players in India and outside view the India market as a good growth engine and want to engage in power gen here. So we expect even higher competitive intensity in low horsepower range - on price, difficult to say how it will play out.

Other Q&A (24)
Umesh Raut · Nomura

Parent's commentary said the September quarter was a record for power generation order intake globally; how do you see order intake for India business in power generation during the quarter and inquiries for the ongoing quarter?

From a parent perspective, the record power gen orders relate to data center markets, especially in the U.S. and Europe. From an India perspective our power gen order intake is more diversified, continues quarter-on-quarter and there is no specific change anticipated in the coming quarters, with good backup power gen demand across different segments.

Umesh Raut · Nomura

Any pricing action in power generation and how are volumes shaping up vs the CPCB IV+ era, especially in medium HP and low HP segments? Also, contribution from mission-critical applications like data centers and hospitals to power gen growth.

Across the power gen range, volumes are now back to pre CPCB IV+ era levels (almost back to CPCB II annual volumes). Pricing has settled down with ongoing competitive pressures. Power gen growth was broad-based across LHP, medium and high horsepower with better growth in low horsepower, and very strong execution on data center demand drove high growth in that segment this quarter.

Umesh Raut · Nomura

Industrial segment saw a Y-o-Y decline; was it a particular subsegment or impact of the extended monsoon?

The largest impact came from the construction segment due to extended monsoon, which saw degrowth both Y-o-Y and sequentially. Mining was also weak with not many tenders opening from Coal India. Those were the two biggest contributors.

Partikshit · HDFC Securities

On a normalised ex-data-center basis, what is the growth in the core power gen side?

On the core power gen side, excluding data centers, we have grown 20% as compared to the same quarter last year.

Partikshit · HDFC Securities

Channel partners cited tariff impositions and supply chain challenges in some nodes as headwinds - is that correct, and would the numbers have been better otherwise?

Not really - those were not the challenges. Tariff uncertainty makes some customers globally hold on to their own capital investments, but that did not cause any specific issues for us in this particular quarter.

Partikshit · HDFC Securities

Exports are at near 3-year highs; do you expect this trend to continue or are we peaking out?

Exports growth came from both HHP and LHP, especially Europe for HHP and Europe and Middle East for LHP, helped by channel development and product placement. We are seeing a little softening of order intake on exports going into the last quarter, largely due to inventory correction in our channel space.

Partikshit · HDFC Securities

On the BES solution and aeroderivatives launched by some players in data centers - have we won new orders, and do these pose long-term threat to power gen in data centers?

On BES, there is a lot of market interest with many live inquiries, but it's a new product and it takes time - we don't have a good order board yet. On aeroderivatives, turbines solve a very different problem and operate in a different range; our data center business operates in 2,000 to 3,000 megawatt range so we don't see competition emerging from that space yet.

Renu Baid · IIFL Capital

Do you see export opportunities on the data center side opening up for Cummins India, or will those largely go through the CTI entity?

Data center engines and gensets are very heavy and the strategy is to produce close to the market because shipping is logistically difficult. Since the U.S. is the fastest-growing market, some of that production for us is in the U.S.

Renu Baid · IIFL Capital

Industrial segment moderated both Y-o-Y and Q-o-Q - can you share subsegment numbers and which buckets slowed (construction, compressors, railways)?

Construction was at INR121 crores, Rail INR120 crores, mining INR17 crores, compressor INR56 crores. Construction did not pick up due to extended monsoon, rail was a good story with strong execution, and mining was weak as Coal India production slowed and few tenders came in.

Balasubramanian · Arihant Capital

Beyond load converter, what is the new product pipeline in railways and what kind of contributions over next 3-5 years?

Growth is currently coming from traditional products like power car and diesel electric tower car segments. The hotel load converter just got approved for serial production last quarter and sales will start coming in. We anticipate demand for power car and DETC products to continue, with newer products in development to be discussed in due course.

Balasubramanian · Arihant Capital

On aftermarket, what kind of incremental margin do you expect from CPCB IV+ products vs prior generations and is your service network equipped?

Our service network was equipped before the CPCB IV+ launch (work began before 1st of July 2023). Aftermarket revenues come from many segments - CPCB II, CPCB IV+ power gen, railways, mining, marine, defense, construction, data center - so it is not right to attribute incremental margin specifically to CPCB IV+.

Pulkit Patni · Goldman Sachs

Why call data centers a one-off chunky order when 40% of power gen came from there - why not see this growth sustaining?

Big data center orders are from hyperscalers (Microsoft, Amazon, Google) which are not well spread across the year, while colo player orders are. This quarter, hyperscaler site clearances and our execution capability came together well, but it's not necessary that this happens every quarter. Announcement-to-execution can take 1-2 years, so we'll see how new India announcements fructify.

Pulkit Patni · Goldman Sachs

If those India data centers come through, what capability building is needed, or can we import some from the network?

We are prepared to execute those orders today. It does not matter where we build the products because our supply chain is very agile, and we are actually capable of executing those orders if they fructify even today.

Aditya Mongia · Kotak Securities

Is this competitive pressure limited to HHP or also a broader-based portfolio level problem?

This is very broad-based, very high competition specifically in low horsepower and medium-range segment, but very broad-based overall.

Aditya Mongia · Kotak Securities

On global OEM distribution-related export opportunities mentioned in the annual report - any color on substantial export opportunities in distribution?

Distribution for us across the world is very localized - it exists to serve the assets on the ground in each market. Largely it is to serve what we have in India; we do not really look at this business for heavy export opportunities.

Shirom Kapur · Jefferies

Could you give the split in power gen across HHP, MHP, LHP for the quarter?

In power gen this quarter, low horsepower was about INR100 crores, medium range about INR250 crores, heavy duty about INR100 crores, and the remaining was high horsepower and projects business.

Mahesh Bendre · LIC Mutual Fund

Despite the tariff issue, exports grew 24%. What is the arrangement with parent on tariff burden?

Our exports go to many countries - largely Africa, Middle East, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America. U.S. exports are not a very significant contributor and only U.S. exports are impacted by tariffs, not the others. Growth came from Europe, Middle East and Latin America.

Priyankar Biswas · JM Financial

If 40% was DC revenue in power gen this quarter, what would it be in 1H FY26?

Overall data center contribution in 1H FY26 would be closer to between 25% to 30%.

Priyankar Biswas · JM Financial

On CPCB IV warranty (2-year comprehensive + 5-year critical parts), are you still providing it and how should warranty expenses move forward?

We provide 2-year comprehensive warranty on all our products and the customer can choose to buy a 5-year extended warranty - many do. Warranty expense depends on how well our products perform on the ground - CPCB IV+ launch has been very good with strong customer acceptance, so warranty expenses are under control.

Atul Tiwari · JPMorgan

If competition is willing to work with lower margins and ROEs, will that pull down your ROCEs and margins over time?

We deal with this kind of competition not just in India but around the world. Our value proposition is technology, innovation and reliability - a backup genset has to work on the day it is needed. We endeavour to provide that value differentiation through technology and reliability rather than worrying about how competition plays.

Mohit Pandey · Citigroup

Is the 20-21% growth in distribution sustainable, and are you seeing increased competitive intensity from third-party providers?

Our distribution maintains assets on the ground, and assets have grown over recent years thanks to strong engine and genset sales, so DBU focuses on coverage, penetration and parts availability. If economic activity continues, distribution will continue to grow. On third parties, will-fit operators have existed for a long time and continue to operate - no higher intensity than before.

Amit Anwani · PL Capital

Are there other neighbouring markets where you could tap data center exports?

Other markets are not growing at that pace in data centers - U.S. is fueling all the growth around the world, plus China and Europe. If opportunities arise we will look at them, but our real opportunity is the India market reaching the growth numbers seen in U.S., Europe and China - that would create domestic boost.

Ashish · MLP

How is competition in the data center market - colo and hyperscalers?

There are a few players in the data center market because these are very complex project executions with stringent demands. Players who work with both colo and hyperscalers in India are largely big MNCs that can fulfill the technology, commissioning and stringent requirements.

Ashish · MLP

Is competition increasing or remaining within the same 2-3 players?

Largely remains within them, with more intensity from some Chinese players for sure, but largely the same set.

Prepared remarks (4 blocks)
Thank you. Thank you so much. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I hope all of you are doing well and staying safe and healthy. Welcome to the Cummins India Limited quarter 2 2025-'26 earnings conference call. I am Shveta Arya, Managing Director of Cummins India Limited. Joining me on the call today is Soma Ghosh, Chief Financial Officer of Cummins India Limited. Thank you for joining us today. I would like to share the financial results for this quarter now. For the quarter ended September 30, 2025, with respect to the same quarter last year, our sales in this quarter are INR<strong>3,122 crore</strong>s, which are higher by 28% compared to INR2,448 crores recorded in the same quarter last year. Domestic sales at INR2,577 crores are higher by 28%. Exports at INR545 crores are higher by 24%. Profit before tax before exceptional items is at INR839 crores, higher by 41%. For this quarter ended September 30, 2025, as we compare it to the previous quarter, our sales at INR3,122 crores are higher by 9% compared to INR2,859 crores recorded in the last quarter. Domestic sales at INR2,577 crores are higher by 10%. Exports at INR 545 crores are higher by 4%.
Profit before tax before exceptional items is at INR<strong>839 crore</strong>s, which is higher by 16%. The segment-wise sales breakup for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, in the domestic business, power generation domestic sales are at INR1,340 crores, which is a 49% increase over last year and 27% increase over the last quarter. Distribution business sales at INR796 crores, which is 21% increase over the same quarter last year and 2% increase over last quarter. Industrial business sales at INR387 crores is a 5% decrease over the same quarter last year and a 7% decrease over last quarter. Coming to exports. High horsepower exports are at INR279 crores, which is a 40% increase over same quarter last year and a 9% increase over last quarter. Low horsepower exports are at INR219 crores, which is an 11% increase over same quarter last year and 3% decrease over last quarter. Regarding the sales outlook for the full year 2025-'26, we expect to have double-digit revenue growth over the previous fiscal year. I now open the session for questions. Thank you.
For the quarter ended September 30, 2025, with respect to the same quarter last year, our sales in this quarter are INR<strong>3,122 crore</strong>s, which are higher by 28% compared to INR2,448 crores recorded in the same quarter last year. Domestic sales at INR2,577 crores are higher by 28%. Exports at INR545 crores are higher by 24%. Profit before tax before exceptional items is at INR839 crores, higher by 41%. For this quarter ended September 30, 2025, as we compare it to the previous quarter, our sales at INR3,122 crores are higher by 9% compared to INR2,859 crores recorded in the last quarter. Domestic sales at INR2,577 crores are higher by 10%. Exports at INR 545 crores are higher by 4%. Profit before tax before exceptional items is at INR839 crores, which is higher by 16%. The segment-wise sales breakup for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, in the domestic business, power generation domestic sales are at INR1,340 crores, which is a 49% increase over last year and 27% increase over the last quarter.
Distribution business sales at INR<strong>796 crore</strong>s, which is 21% increase over the same quarter last year and 2% increase over last quarter. Industrial business sales at INR387 crores is a 5% decrease over the same quarter last year and a 7% decrease over last quarter. High horsepower exports are at INR279 crores, which is a 40% increase over same quarter last year and a 9% increase over last quarter. Low horsepower exports are at INR219 crores, which is an 11% increase over same quarter last year and 3% decrease over last quarter. Regarding the sales outlook for the full year 2025-'26, we expect to have double-digit revenue growth over the previous fiscal year.
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