Throughline · holding view Deep analysis Q2 FY26
IDFCFIRSTB IDFC First Bank Ltd · Private bank Q2 FY26 · concall
Pattern: sa rate cut timing

Q4FY26 absorbed the Rs. 646 crore fraud upfront.

2 deflections · 5 weak · 15 clean pushback across 7 of 22 Q&A turns

Focused evidence 7 of 22

Akshay Jain · Autonomousweak

CASA ratio has now touched like around 50% odd. Like should we expect you to use the lever of SA rate cut? Like kind of highest amongst the larger banks on SA, is the SA rate cut on the cards, which should also improve the NIMs?

That is one lever we can press any day. It's in our hands. Question is I want to press it now, press it 1 year from now, 2 years from now. The reason why I'm using this kind of horizon to you is that our credit deposit ratio is still 94%. So we don't want to jump it on too fast. We want to raise the deposits.

Akshay Jain · Autonomousweak

On ECL impact, have you done any impact analysis for IDFC? Larger banks have a big provision buffer, which they can use, but IDFC doesn't have that big provision buffer. Like how do we look at ECL implementation?

While I would say it's early to sort of quantify any impact here. But in my view, on quick assessment is that there would be a provisioning increase, which will happen for Stage 1 and Stage 2 assets vis-a-vis the current standard asset provisioning norms. But this could get partly offset by the lower provisioning requirement on Stage 3 assets because the bank has been following a very conservative provisioning norms. Our PCR is at 72%.

Param Subramanian · Investecdeflection

Just to go back to how we are looking at the exit for this year. So what are we broadly looking at in terms of, on NIM, 5.8% plus. We were talking about 0.9% to 1% ROA by Q4. Does that still stand broadly? And in terms of credit cost, where we will be looking at by Q4?

I'm not sure we can exactly pin 0.9% or 0.1%. We got to see as it comes because there are so many moving parts. But directionally, we can say that the credit cost should come down, margins should go up. So, we are feeling like more positive about next quarter and quarter after that. Sequentially, we feel that Q-o-Q next 2, 3 quarters should look good.

Param Subramanian · Investecweak

So all things being equal, you would think the non-MFI slippage, which actually picked up in Q1 and that is clear, that absolute number should start declining from Q3, Q4, basis what your SMA shows?

I think you should not focus so much on slippage, you should focus more on credit cost because end of the day, it all comes down to credit cost. SMA, gross NPA, net NPA, credit cost - within these 4, literally, you will see the credit quality of any book. What you should expect from us is that quarter-on-quarter, our profitability should look better like into next quarter as well into Q4 as well.

Sameer Bhise · Dymon Asiaweak

Just to pick your brains on the ECL plus EIR combined impact. Would it be fair to assume even if the net outcome is, say, marginally negative, it should not be meaningfully impactful on the ROA, maybe say single-digit basis points?

As I explained from a capital point of view on transition, it should be marginally positive. In terms of flow, of course, there could be some impact. But it would, to a great extent, get negative by the year, which sort of comes in.

Gao Zhixuan · Schonfelddeflection

Just a data keeping question. What's our MFI credit cost before the buffer reversal in rupee crores this quarter?

We are not calling any portfolio specific numbers here. Roughly in percentage sense, depending on quarter-to-quarter, sometimes 6%, sometimes 10%, but that is the kind of zone that we experienced in this whole episode.

Jai Mundhra · ICICI Securitiesweak

Secondly, on MSME. In your entire INR2.66 lakh crores loan book, how much could be the SME into export and particularly to US, if you have any?

There are two types of businesses we have. One is the Corporate business. We have about 5 or 6 clients to whom we have, who do export to the US and are affected. They are like rated well. So on the corporate side, we are fine there. On the rest is some of our customers on the loan against property could also be exposed there. We have done the analysis. We feel things are comfortable as of now.

Other Q&A (15)
Akshay Jain · Autonomous

Starting with margins. As you mentioned that margins have bottomed out this quarter. But how should we see margins moving in the next 2 quarters? Like should we place 4Q '26 margins to somewhere near the 6% number of 4Q '25?

In the last call also, we had said that we expect margins to definitely improve in Q3 and Q4. And my sense is by the end of Q4, the margin should be definitely upwards of 5.8%. We are also penciling in one more repo cut when we are giving this guidance.

Akshay Jain · Autonomous

On asset quality, while the MFI slippages have halved this quarter, but the non-MFI slippages continue to be around like INR20 billion-odd number. Like any sectoral color on where is this slippages coming from? And how should we look at the non-MFI slippages going ahead? And on MFI, like should we assume that this was the last quarter of pain?

MFI slippages have drastically come down. And for other than MFI, in terms of slippage ratio, that has reduced to 3.39% from 3.54% in the previous quarter. The SMA positions have improved at September. We definitely feel that this would be on a downward trajectory into Q3, Q4. And our overall guidance on credit cost still stays around that 2.05%, 2.1%, which we had guided in the previous quarter.

Akshay Jain · Autonomous

Lastly, again, on the draft credit risk, so have you done any analysis on the benefits which you'll get from that framework?

All of these are expected to kick in from April 1, FY27. Even on credit risk RWA, there will be a positive, net positive to our capital ratios. Taking all of this together, maybe ECL and the credit risk RWA and operational risk RWA, I think we will be broadly neutral on the capital front on transition.

Param Subramanian · Investec

So broadly, you're saying that in terms of credit cost, since you're holding on to that guidance of 2.05% to 2.1%, so which means credit cost in second half should be, say, 1.6%, 1.7% is what you're talking, right, and more or less that level in Q4?

Yes, you take it at 2.1%. When we do our modeling for Q3 and Q4, we do expect the credit cost to come down. So such that blend-blend it should come down to this number we're talking about. I want to just caution it's percentage of loans and not assets. So I guess maybe second half should be like 1.8% or so.

Param Subramanian · Investec

Coming back to that question on SA rate cuts. Most of your peers, the larger balance sheets, like names like IndusInd Bank, YES Bank have actually cut very aggressively on their savings rate. So why can we not use the lever at least to the extent of where the market is, which is at least 50 basis points below you?

At end of the day, if we do this, SA rate is even now coming to us at 5.8%. That's still cheaper than fixed deposits coming at 7%. So if you cut this and you need money, you'll go and raise it on fixed deposit. So I have a choice to make, whether I make everybody happy today or make people happy tomorrow. So I choose to make people happy tomorrow. Today, if we cut SA rates, I'll be a little on the edge.

Sameer Bhise · Dymon Asia

Just had an observation that if you kind of look at some of the peer banks, the margin performance has been quite better than what we thought. But some of the peer banks probably have kind of even reported expansion in margins. We haven't cut SA rates, but that gives us additional ammunition. Have we kind of seen relatively slower decline in cost of funds?

We had a choice like many other institutions have done of cutting SA rates by 50 basis points and cutting term deposit by 50 basis points. That gives straight cash to the P&L. In our case, instead of exercising that choice of going 50 bps and 50 bps, we have chosen to go 100 bps into term deposit, so if you wake up 1 year from now, the net effect to the P&L is the same because CASA is 50%. So I'm playing the long game.

Gao Zhixuan · Schonfeld

On the vehicle loans. This quarter, we have done very well, almost 12% quarter-on-quarter growth. What's driving that growth?

On 2-wheelers, as you would have seen in the past also, we have been gaining market share there. We have been expanding in that business. During the last part of the quarter, we also saw some pent-up demand typically in the last 10 days because of the GST announcements which came in, and that has given us this lift. We expect some bit of this traction could continue in Q3 as well.

Gao Zhixuan · Schonfeld

Sorry I may have missed that for the non-MFI credit cost in percentage this quarter, you were saying how much was that?

It was broadly stable around the 2% mark, which was even there in the previous quarter. So for H1, the credit cost ex MFI is about 2.03%.

Jai Mundhra · ICICI Securities

First is on MFI book. The disbursement is higher format versus last quarter, but the book has run down by around INR1,000 crores. So how do you see this book shaping up? Would you believe this will keep running down?

Our own guess is that by end of this year, it should stabilize, like it should taper off on the low bottom side by end of this year and then grow from there. We want to grow it because it has many benefits. It has private sector, it has weaker section private sector requirement. It makes money. The industry has learned its lesson.

Jai Mundhra · ICICI Securities

The SMA 1 plus 2 portfolio that we show that has mortgage vehicle MSME. This MSME corresponds to which line item, just to pardon my ignorance?

This will essentially include Business Banking segment. This would include business installment loans, which Vaidya talked about. And in our disclosure, it largely corresponds Business Banking, we have given out separately. And there is an other component in the Business finance, which would include largely BIL and some of these loans.

Jai Mundhra · ICICI Securities

If you have the number separate for current account and savings account, that will give a clear picture because the CASA as a block is doing very well.

Current account would be about, I would say, 14% of the total CASA deposits. And as I said, on an average basis, CASA did grow by 32% on a Y-o-Y basis. We have seen even our CA growth to be about 30%. Of course, in terms of the total proportion, our endeavor is to improve the CA in the overall pack.

Jai Mundhra · ICICI Securities

How much of the business is driven by partners, partnership because the new guideline, you may have to change something when you source business from some other partners under CLP 1 and 2?

We don't do much of co-lending and all. To your previous question on current account, like I said that we are growing that. I'd imagine that we are about INR20-odd thousand crores of current accounts on our book or something like that, somewhere in that zone but it's growing.

Farhaan Wadia · HDFC Securities

If other than the microfinance sector, is there stress in any other sector?

The short answer is no. We are not seeing any. We are very watchful. We are seeing every business trends and signals like the numbers of every product on the SMA, broadly, I think they're all holding up well. So we're not seeing any significant amount, but we'll watch if we see any signal, we'll share with you.

Shailesh Kanani · Centrum Broking

My question was on Slide 65, where the cost-of-income ratio on the asset side has been a little sticky. So for last 3 years, it is on the upward trajectory. So just wanted to understand reasons for that and any levers for improvement on that front? And on credit cards, has seen a very sharp improvement in terms of cost to income.

On the asset side, the cost to income has gone up in the near term because of the income impact which we have seen, because of the sharp decline in the MFI book and because of the repo transmission, which has happened, while on the FD, the benefit will come with some lag. So directionally, while this may move slightly further into next 1 or 2 quarters, but directionally, we definitely see operating leverage playing out and this to bend down into the next year.

Shailesh Kanani · Centrum Broking

Just to clarify that. But that is fine for first half FY '26. But what I was trying to understand is that since FY '23, if you see that number, it has been kind of inching up from 52.7% to say, around 56% in FY '25 as well. So just wanted to understand in general.

FY '24 is 53.2%. In FY '25 is when the microfinance item hit us. So that's when you saw the number jump up from 53.2% to 56.1%. And even in this year, microfinance book shrinking, and that's why the mix is shrinking. So you've seen it go up from 56.1% to 59.1%. Now we believe that once this microfinance issue should be behind us and 1 year from now, the fixed deposit would have helped us reprice all the fixed deposit downwards meaningfully.

Prepared remarks (3 blocks)
Good evening, everybody. Thank you very much for joining us this evening for Q2 FY26 results. The way we broadly look at it, things are getting brighter for quite a period of time. With a lot of releases from the RBI, CRR cut, the <strong>100 basis points</strong> of repo cut, even ECB norms, easing of the IPO market, etc. has boosted the flow of funds, and we are hoping that this will start releasing up and opening up credit market more in the country. The government gave the income tax rate and the GST cut and capex is going strong. We are finding that the rural markets consumption is looking a bit better. Our own book has grown from about INR 35,000 crores at the time of merger in 2018 December to INR 2,10,000 crores today. So it's like 5 times. So this is an example of how the base effect does make a difference. So because of a low base effect, we can grow, we've already grown by 20 odd percent. I'm really focusing upon building capabilities at the bank because the building capabilities is a fundamental thing. Our bank is now developing the ability to give out 1 million loans a month. The second big focus for me is the ability to bring ourselves together as a universal bank. We are building a really good cash management business at the bank. We are building out a really good wealth management business at the bank. We started off at INR 1,000 crores in 2019. Today, it is INR 50,000 crores. We want to grow this to INR 2 lakh crore to INR3 lakh crores. The third thing we're building as a universal bank is we're still launching out product after product in the lending side. We are rolling out gold loans, tractor financing, rural financing, KCC. The third thing that I'm focusing on is being able to structurally build it right. Even now, our credit deposit ratio is 94%. We started at 169% if you add back credit substitutes. We are still focusing on building deposit franchise. Borrowing as a composition of total deposits and borrowings, now we have come down to 8%. We were 48% at the time of merger. The best way to understand the retailization of deposits is the LCR retail deposits. We were 12% in 2018.
Now we have already reached 65%, which is in the league of the big banks. On the lending side, we are 80% of the book is retail. We have raised enough capital now, and that makes us feel very comfortable. Looking ahead, our own sense is that this microfinance issue is behind us. It's really taken a lot out of us in the last 5 or 6 quarters. For every single business line, we now disclose trailing 5 quarters, gross NPA, net NPA, SMA 1 and 2. The mortgages business numbers had slightly gone up from 0.39% to 0.54%. The vehicles SMA for 5 quarters in a row is at 0.96%, which is very good. Our MSME number, last quarter has gone up from 1.16% to 1.27%. Consumer durable is stable at less than 1%. Credit cards is like 1.5%. Our issue was only MFI. We called it out. We are through with it. We don't believe we're going to disappoint you, frankly, because we don't see any red flags. We are frankly looking ahead with good optimism. Our biggest pride is that our asset quality has held very well for 15 years. The key thing for us in a financial performance sense, is to improve the cost-to-income ratio, which will come. The reason it didn't come is that actually our cost itself came down. Cost growth is not more than 12%, 13% now for a book growth of 20%. Operating leverage is building up positively. We degrew the MFI book from INR13,000 crores to INR7,000 crores. So we lost INR6,000 crores. So that amount of income got affected. Next year onwards when the book starts growing and income starts coming back. If we can maintain our opex less than 30%, which is what we are guiding for. If the book grows 18% and opex grows 13%, you can do the math and see the operating leverage at play. Last year book grew by 20-odd percent but opex grew by only 16%. This year also, book is growing by 20%, opex grew by only 13%. Cost-to-income will come down.
- Total customer deposits grew at <strong>23.4%</strong> Y-o-Y to INR 2.69 lakh crores; average customer deposits grew by 24% Y-o-Y - Retail deposits grew at 24% on average basis and 21.4% Y-o-Y on end-of-period basis - CASA deposits grew Y-o-Y by 26.8% on end-of-period basis and 32% on average basis - Period end CASA was at 50.1% and average CASA ratio stood at 48.6%; was 46.3% at same time last year - Opened about 25 branches during the quarter, total branch count to 1,041 branches - Loans and advances grew by 19.7% Y-o-Y to INR 2.67 lakh crores; healthy growth across Mortgage, Vehicle Loan, business banking, wholesale loans - Microfinance portfolio degrew to INR7,300 crores from INR8,300 crores; MFI book is now about 2.7% of total funded assets - Insurance coverage on outstanding microfinance portfolio touched 77% - Credit cards crossed 4 million mark; book touched INR 8,600 crores; spends grew about 36% in H1 FY26 Y-o-Y; launched credit card with Indigo - Wealth management AUM grew by 28% to INR55,000 crores - Total customer business touched INR5.35 lakh crores, grew by 21.6% Y-o-Y - Gross NPA improved by 11 bps to 1.86% from 1.97%; Net NPA improved to 0.52% from 0.55% - Retail/Rural/MSME gross NPA improved by 9 bps to 1.73%; net NPA improved to 0.63% from 0.66% - PCR stood at 72.2% as of September 30, 2025 - Gross slippage reduced by 9% sequentially; net slippages improved by 13% sequentially - Gross slippage ratio for the other portfolio was lower by 15 bps at 3.39% - Collection efficiency stable at 99.5% for early bucket ex MFI; for MFI improved from 99% to 99.1% - SMA of retail/rural/MSME book improved from 1.01% to 0.90%; ex-MFI SMA improvement was about 7 bps; MFI SMA reduced by 88 bps - Profit after tax of INR 352 crores for Q2 and INR 815 crores for H1 FY26 - Net profit grew by 76% Y-o-Y; degrew 23.8% Q-o-Q due to much higher trading gains in Q1 FY26 - NII grew by 6.8% Y-o-Y, improved from 5.1% Y-o-Y growth in Q1 FY26 - Net interest margin on AUM reduced by 12 bps sequentially to 5.59% from 5.71% - Cost of funds improved by 19 bps sequentially; cost of deposits improved by about 16 bps - Fee and other income grew by 13.2% Y-o-Y; trading gains were INR 56 crores vs INR 495 crores in Q1 FY26 - Total operating income including trading gains grew by 7.5% in Q2 FY26; opex grew about 12.5%; H1 FY26 opex up 11.8% - Core operating profit (excluding trading gains) improved by 4.6% sequentially - Provisions reduced by 12.5% Q-o-Q from INR 1,659 crores to INR 1,452 crores - Credit cost percentage improved by 45 bps to 2.24%; ex-MFI credit cost in H1 FY26 about 2% - Bank utilized microfinance provision buffer of INR 75 crores; carries about INR 240 crores as contingency provision - Capital adequacy ratio (incl. H1 profits) at 14.34% with CET1 at 12.27% - Post CCPS conversion, CRAR and Tier 1 would be 16.82% and 14.75% respectively - Average LCR was at 115% for the quarter
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