Q4FY26 absorbed the Rs. 646 crore fraud upfront.
- Sa rate cut timing — answer hedged.
- Ecl implementation impact — answer hedged.
- Q4 roa exit guidance — question deflected.
CASA ratio has now touched like around 50% odd. Like should we expect you to use the lever of SA rate cut? Like kind of highest amongst the larger banks on SA, is the SA rate cut on the cards, which should also improve the NIMs?
That is one lever we can press any day. It's in our hands. Question is I want to press it now, press it 1 year from now, 2 years from now. The reason why I'm using this kind of horizon to you is that our credit deposit ratio is still 94%. So we don't want to jump it on too fast. We want to raise the deposits.
On ECL impact, have you done any impact analysis for IDFC? Larger banks have a big provision buffer, which they can use, but IDFC doesn't have that big provision buffer. Like how do we look at ECL implementation?
While I would say it's early to sort of quantify any impact here. But in my view, on quick assessment is that there would be a provisioning increase, which will happen for Stage 1 and Stage 2 assets vis-a-vis the current standard asset provisioning norms. But this could get partly offset by the lower provisioning requirement on Stage 3 assets because the bank has been following a very conservative provisioning norms. Our PCR is at 72%.
Just to go back to how we are looking at the exit for this year. So what are we broadly looking at in terms of, on NIM, 5.8% plus. We were talking about 0.9% to 1% ROA by Q4. Does that still stand broadly? And in terms of credit cost, where we will be looking at by Q4?
I'm not sure we can exactly pin 0.9% or 0.1%. We got to see as it comes because there are so many moving parts. But directionally, we can say that the credit cost should come down, margins should go up. So, we are feeling like more positive about next quarter and quarter after that. Sequentially, we feel that Q-o-Q next 2, 3 quarters should look good.
So all things being equal, you would think the non-MFI slippage, which actually picked up in Q1 and that is clear, that absolute number should start declining from Q3, Q4, basis what your SMA shows?
I think you should not focus so much on slippage, you should focus more on credit cost because end of the day, it all comes down to credit cost. SMA, gross NPA, net NPA, credit cost - within these 4, literally, you will see the credit quality of any book. What you should expect from us is that quarter-on-quarter, our profitability should look better like into next quarter as well into Q4 as well.
Just to pick your brains on the ECL plus EIR combined impact. Would it be fair to assume even if the net outcome is, say, marginally negative, it should not be meaningfully impactful on the ROA, maybe say single-digit basis points?
As I explained from a capital point of view on transition, it should be marginally positive. In terms of flow, of course, there could be some impact. But it would, to a great extent, get negative by the year, which sort of comes in.
Just a data keeping question. What's our MFI credit cost before the buffer reversal in rupee crores this quarter?
We are not calling any portfolio specific numbers here. Roughly in percentage sense, depending on quarter-to-quarter, sometimes 6%, sometimes 10%, but that is the kind of zone that we experienced in this whole episode.
Secondly, on MSME. In your entire INR2.66 lakh crores loan book, how much could be the SME into export and particularly to US, if you have any?
There are two types of businesses we have. One is the Corporate business. We have about 5 or 6 clients to whom we have, who do export to the US and are affected. They are like rated well. So on the corporate side, we are fine there. On the rest is some of our customers on the loan against property could also be exposed there. We have done the analysis. We feel things are comfortable as of now.
Starting with margins. As you mentioned that margins have bottomed out this quarter. But how should we see margins moving in the next 2 quarters? Like should we place 4Q '26 margins to somewhere near the 6% number of 4Q '25?
In the last call also, we had said that we expect margins to definitely improve in Q3 and Q4. And my sense is by the end of Q4, the margin should be definitely upwards of 5.8%. We are also penciling in one more repo cut when we are giving this guidance.
On asset quality, while the MFI slippages have halved this quarter, but the non-MFI slippages continue to be around like INR20 billion-odd number. Like any sectoral color on where is this slippages coming from? And how should we look at the non-MFI slippages going ahead? And on MFI, like should we assume that this was the last quarter of pain?
MFI slippages have drastically come down. And for other than MFI, in terms of slippage ratio, that has reduced to 3.39% from 3.54% in the previous quarter. The SMA positions have improved at September. We definitely feel that this would be on a downward trajectory into Q3, Q4. And our overall guidance on credit cost still stays around that 2.05%, 2.1%, which we had guided in the previous quarter.
Lastly, again, on the draft credit risk, so have you done any analysis on the benefits which you'll get from that framework?
All of these are expected to kick in from April 1, FY27. Even on credit risk RWA, there will be a positive, net positive to our capital ratios. Taking all of this together, maybe ECL and the credit risk RWA and operational risk RWA, I think we will be broadly neutral on the capital front on transition.
So broadly, you're saying that in terms of credit cost, since you're holding on to that guidance of 2.05% to 2.1%, so which means credit cost in second half should be, say, 1.6%, 1.7% is what you're talking, right, and more or less that level in Q4?
Yes, you take it at 2.1%. When we do our modeling for Q3 and Q4, we do expect the credit cost to come down. So such that blend-blend it should come down to this number we're talking about. I want to just caution it's percentage of loans and not assets. So I guess maybe second half should be like 1.8% or so.
Coming back to that question on SA rate cuts. Most of your peers, the larger balance sheets, like names like IndusInd Bank, YES Bank have actually cut very aggressively on their savings rate. So why can we not use the lever at least to the extent of where the market is, which is at least 50 basis points below you?
At end of the day, if we do this, SA rate is even now coming to us at 5.8%. That's still cheaper than fixed deposits coming at 7%. So if you cut this and you need money, you'll go and raise it on fixed deposit. So I have a choice to make, whether I make everybody happy today or make people happy tomorrow. So I choose to make people happy tomorrow. Today, if we cut SA rates, I'll be a little on the edge.
Just had an observation that if you kind of look at some of the peer banks, the margin performance has been quite better than what we thought. But some of the peer banks probably have kind of even reported expansion in margins. We haven't cut SA rates, but that gives us additional ammunition. Have we kind of seen relatively slower decline in cost of funds?
We had a choice like many other institutions have done of cutting SA rates by 50 basis points and cutting term deposit by 50 basis points. That gives straight cash to the P&L. In our case, instead of exercising that choice of going 50 bps and 50 bps, we have chosen to go 100 bps into term deposit, so if you wake up 1 year from now, the net effect to the P&L is the same because CASA is 50%. So I'm playing the long game.
On the vehicle loans. This quarter, we have done very well, almost 12% quarter-on-quarter growth. What's driving that growth?
On 2-wheelers, as you would have seen in the past also, we have been gaining market share there. We have been expanding in that business. During the last part of the quarter, we also saw some pent-up demand typically in the last 10 days because of the GST announcements which came in, and that has given us this lift. We expect some bit of this traction could continue in Q3 as well.
Sorry I may have missed that for the non-MFI credit cost in percentage this quarter, you were saying how much was that?
It was broadly stable around the 2% mark, which was even there in the previous quarter. So for H1, the credit cost ex MFI is about 2.03%.
First is on MFI book. The disbursement is higher format versus last quarter, but the book has run down by around INR1,000 crores. So how do you see this book shaping up? Would you believe this will keep running down?
Our own guess is that by end of this year, it should stabilize, like it should taper off on the low bottom side by end of this year and then grow from there. We want to grow it because it has many benefits. It has private sector, it has weaker section private sector requirement. It makes money. The industry has learned its lesson.
The SMA 1 plus 2 portfolio that we show that has mortgage vehicle MSME. This MSME corresponds to which line item, just to pardon my ignorance?
This will essentially include Business Banking segment. This would include business installment loans, which Vaidya talked about. And in our disclosure, it largely corresponds Business Banking, we have given out separately. And there is an other component in the Business finance, which would include largely BIL and some of these loans.
If you have the number separate for current account and savings account, that will give a clear picture because the CASA as a block is doing very well.
Current account would be about, I would say, 14% of the total CASA deposits. And as I said, on an average basis, CASA did grow by 32% on a Y-o-Y basis. We have seen even our CA growth to be about 30%. Of course, in terms of the total proportion, our endeavor is to improve the CA in the overall pack.
How much of the business is driven by partners, partnership because the new guideline, you may have to change something when you source business from some other partners under CLP 1 and 2?
We don't do much of co-lending and all. To your previous question on current account, like I said that we are growing that. I'd imagine that we are about INR20-odd thousand crores of current accounts on our book or something like that, somewhere in that zone but it's growing.
If other than the microfinance sector, is there stress in any other sector?
The short answer is no. We are not seeing any. We are very watchful. We are seeing every business trends and signals like the numbers of every product on the SMA, broadly, I think they're all holding up well. So we're not seeing any significant amount, but we'll watch if we see any signal, we'll share with you.
My question was on Slide 65, where the cost-of-income ratio on the asset side has been a little sticky. So for last 3 years, it is on the upward trajectory. So just wanted to understand reasons for that and any levers for improvement on that front? And on credit cards, has seen a very sharp improvement in terms of cost to income.
On the asset side, the cost to income has gone up in the near term because of the income impact which we have seen, because of the sharp decline in the MFI book and because of the repo transmission, which has happened, while on the FD, the benefit will come with some lag. So directionally, while this may move slightly further into next 1 or 2 quarters, but directionally, we definitely see operating leverage playing out and this to bend down into the next year.
Just to clarify that. But that is fine for first half FY '26. But what I was trying to understand is that since FY '23, if you see that number, it has been kind of inching up from 52.7% to say, around 56% in FY '25 as well. So just wanted to understand in general.
FY '24 is 53.2%. In FY '25 is when the microfinance item hit us. So that's when you saw the number jump up from 53.2% to 56.1%. And even in this year, microfinance book shrinking, and that's why the mix is shrinking. So you've seen it go up from 56.1% to 59.1%. Now we believe that once this microfinance issue should be behind us and 1 year from now, the fixed deposit would have helped us reprice all the fixed deposit downwards meaningfully.