Throughline · holding view Deep analysis Q3 FY26
RVNL Rail Vikas Nigam Limited · Other Q3 FY26 · concall
Pattern: railway budget capex high

Revenue surged 47.6% QoQ in Q4FY26 but EBITDA margin crashed to 5.83%.

1 deflection · 3 weak · 12 clean pushback across 4 of 16 Q&A turns

Focused evidence 4 of 16

Vishal · PL Capitalweak

Do we get to participate in the lease asset line item capex of Ministry of Railways? And on the high-speed rails announcements, how much time does it take before orders come to the market?

As you see the budget, there is a huge opportunity for us. Railway is continuously spending money on the infrastructure improvement. We are hopeful to get good works from these infrastructure works taken by railways. About the new corridors announced for the high-speed train network, we are not sure whether we can be part of that work because that work is entrusted to another organization. But definitely, we will try to take some work from the bidding point of view. We'll bid for those projects in future, but its timeline will be slightly 2 or 3 years. In this year, we are not expecting any work from that sector.

Ashish Shah · HDFC Mutual Fundweak

How about the other order book of bidding-based, INR47,000 crores?

Yes. Even that work is going on. Under progress, yes, which includes Vande Bharat, BharatNet and other bidding projects of railways.

Ashish Shah · HDFC Mutual Fundweak

Are you seeing any pickup in the railway EPC projects? The budget mentioned new dedicated freight corridor works and high-speed rail in 6-7 cities. How is the railway projects landscape over the next 12 months?

The Railway Ministry is spending huge money on the infrastructure. And in addition to that, a lot of other works are also coming up, which your company bids for, like metros, highways. So future is good for next 2 to 3 years. And as I just said, that we are hoping to increase our revenue by 10%. Even the profit margins will be slightly better because as I earlier told you it was a transition phase for us, for your company from like nomination basis to bidding. So I think things are improving. And we'll be getting better margins in our bidding projects also.

Vishal · PL Capitaldeflection

On the 7% EBITDA margin Ashish asked about — does that include other income? How do you see that number?

Good afternoon. Basically, sir talked about gross margin. If you see in this quarter, though our turnover has decreased compared to quarter 2, but we have improved the gross margin in last quarter. Almost by 50, 60 basis points we have improved in gross margin. So with cost cutting, better improvement in our execution, quality, we are going to achieve the 7% gross margin next year.

Other Q&A (12)
Vishal · PL Capital

How exactly are we seeing the full year for us in terms of the growth rate? And on the margins front, how is this trajectory going to be in financial year '26?

Our growth in top line is quite challenging right now because earlier we were getting railway works and now we are diversifying into bidding works also. But we are hopeful that this year, our growth will be sustained — we are expecting a growth of 1% or 2% than the previous year. But profit, we are not expecting such good profit this year because a major part of our income will be from the bidding works, where the margins are less. So definitely, there will be some hit in our bottom line. But in the next financial year, we'll be doing much better and we'll have a better growth next year. This year, it will be stagnant growth in top line and maybe we might get a dip in our bottom line.

Vishal · PL Capital

Can you give some color on order inflow in the last 1, 2 quarters and any new opportunity emerging that could boost the order book?

In the last quarters, we have emerged as lowest in works amounting to INR3,500 crores, and already works up to INR1,500 crores have been awarded to us. We are in talks with many public sector units to get works on MOU basis. We are bidding for highway works, for railway works. There's a lot of opportunity for us in future because recently in budget, a lot of capital expenditure has been announced for railway works. So we are hopeful that we will get a good chunk out of that budget.

Vishal · PL Capital

On the pipeline of railway orders given the 10-11% capex increase, any pipeline that you see for yourself and how this opportunity can be in terms of number?

If you see the next 3 years, we already have almost INR40,000 crores of railway works. So our first focus is to complete those works within next 3 years. That will bring us the income of almost INR10,000 crores to INR11,000 crores per annum. And parallelly, we will be focusing on getting new works on bidding. Our target is to get at least income of INR10,000 crores to INR12,000 crores from those works also. In addition, other infrastructure works are also coming, whether by PSUs, by state governments and other sector also.

Shubham · Antique Stockbroking

What is the current status on the Vande Bharat order?

Vande Bharat is a very prestigious project for us also and railways. So we are manufacturing 120 train sets. And right now, our work is going on as per the planned progress. Our first milestone will be to give the prototype to the railways. And we are hopeful to achieve this milestone within this year as per the program of the railway, which is, I think, June 2026.

Shubham · Antique Stockbroking

Will this be basically the sleeper Vande Bharat or the normal one?

Vande Bharat sleeper train with 16 coaches. 16 coaches planned, configuration.

Ashish Shah · HDFC Mutual Fund

Out of the INR87,000 crores order book, with INR40,000 crores nomination-based and INR47,000 crores bidding-based, what portion of nomination is currently under execution vs awaiting approvals?

No. This work is in progress. It is already awarded to us. Work is going on full swing. As I just briefed you, out of this 40,000 order book, we have to complete this order book in the next 3 years. So accordingly, works are going on.

Ashish Shah · HDFC Mutual Fund

What's the kind of execution that one can hope from this order book? Given Vande Bharat has a longer cycle and others could be shorter, what could be revenue execution cycle for the INR47,000 crores bidding piece?

The cycle for this is quite long, for Vande Bharat and BharatNet. But parallelly, we are undertaking many other works like highways, port sector also, work is in progress. So we are hoping for the next 3 years, our 50% of revenue will be from the railway works, which is 40,000; and 50% of our revenue will be from our bidding works, whether from Vande Bharat or from BharatNet, from highways and other railway sector. So we are hoping that 50%-50% revenue will be from each sector.

Ashish Shah · HDFC Mutual Fund

What's the total revenue guidance for FY27? This year is flat — how does FY27 look?

No, there will be definitely sustainable growth. We are targeting growth of between about 10% per financial year. And we will achieve it because our order book is very strong and the industry is also showing signs of a lot of infrastructure works coming up. And we are talking to many states, public sectors to take up work on MOU basis. So we are very hopeful that we will achieve 10% growth in our top line and bottom line, too.

Ashish Shah · HDFC Mutual Fund

How would you guide on EBITDA margins for FY26 and FY27 given the 50-50 mix?

Margins, as you know, there are two revenue streams we have: one is railway, which have a very good profit stream; and biddings, we definitely are getting also on competition basis. So sometimes the margins are less and high. But on an average, we will definitely get an EBITDA margin of 7%.

Ashish Shah · HDFC Mutual Fund

So around 7% margin in next financial year. And on a turnover, this year close to INR20,000 crores — 10% over that is what you're guiding for next year?

Yes.

Vishal · PL Capital

Can you provide the order book breakup that you mentioned — central, state, private — how this number can be for us?

Good afternoon, Vishal. our orders are from various diverse sectors. Railway is still our core. Railway orders comprises of around 45% of our total orders. Then road sector, we have got around 10% of our total orders. Electrical sector, where we have got a diverse mix of orders from basically RDSS, which are basically revamped distribution support system in 4 states and transmission line and railway electrification works, they comprise of around 15%. And signalling and telecom work, which includes railway telecom works, signalling works as well as the BharatNet projects, they comprise of around 15% of our order book. And around 7% order book is from our mechanical sector, which includes our share in Vande Bharat and some of the workshop projects. And besides that, we have got an order book of around INR3,500 crores from international projects.

Vishal · PL Capital

So is it fair to say, barring electrical, most of the projects are from the central government side?

Yes. Most of our projects, barring electrical distribution support systems, they are from the basically central government. We are working for national highways and railways, major... And metros. Metro is also an important segment.

Prepared remarks (4 blocks)
Namaskar. Good afternoon, all of you. A very warm welcome to all of you in today's investor call for third quarter of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited. My name is Saleem Ahmad. I'm Chairman and Managing Director of your company. I have recently joined your company almost a month back. I have experience of working with Delhi Metro Rail Corporation. And lastly, I was working as Director of Projects with NBCC India Limited. So I want to assure all the stakeholders that my focus area will be that all the works which are ongoing should be completed on time, and I will focus on the faster execution of our order book. And I will be focusing on achieving the sustainable and good growth for both top line and bottom line. Our results for quarter 3 have been declared. In quarter 3, we have achieved top line of INR<strong>4,936 crore</strong>s and our profit before tax is INR359 crores. If we see the 9 months performance, our consolidated top line is INR14,406 crores and our profit before tax is INR841 crores. If you see our order book, your company order book is very strong. We have almost INR87,000 crores of order, which includes railway nomination works of INR40,000 crores, and we have secured INR47,000 crores of work on bidding. Recently also, we have secured works of INR1,528 crores of new works in last 9 months and have emerged as the lowest bidder for the project value INR3,667 crores. We have also signed an MOU with Visakha Port Authorities for development of various infrastructure projects in that port.
And we are also in discussion with various states and public sector bodies to explore the business opportunities in that area. I also want to brief all of you about the progress of the important works which we are carrying out. First important project which your company is doing is Vande Bharat project, where 120 train sets are being manufactured along with our Russian counterpart. And I want to brief all of you that work is progressing very well in that sector. First prototype which is required as per the key dates will be met and will be ready with the first prototype in June or July of this year. So that will be a major achievement of the major project. Another important project which is going on is BharatNet project. So progress in that project is also progressing satisfactorily, and we are hopeful to generate good income out of that project in this year. Another important project is Rishikesh-Karnaprayag, where work is going on full swing, and our target which is to achieve the completion of the project in December 2028. And we are progressing very well in that project also. So, dear shareholders, I want to assure you on behalf of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited, your company, that our management, with me as Chairman and our Directors, will make all efforts to ensure sustainable good growth in future and ensure good profit in future. Thank you very much. And now the forum is open for question and answers. Thank you.
Our results for quarter 3 have been declared. In quarter 3, we have achieved top line of INR<strong>4,936 crore</strong>s and our profit before tax is INR359 crores. If we see the 9 months performance, our consolidated top line is INR14,406 crores and our profit before tax is INR841 crores. If you see our order book, your company order book is very strong. We have almost INR87,000 crores of order, which includes railway nomination works of INR40,000 crores, and we have secured INR47,000 crores of work on bidding. Recently also, we have secured works of INR1,528 crores of new works in last 9 months and have emerged as the lowest bidder for the project value INR3,667 crores.
Good afternoon. Basically, sir talked about gross margin. If you see in this quarter, though our turnover has decreased compared to quarter 2, but we have improved the gross margin in last quarter. Almost by 50, <strong>60 basis points</strong> we have improved in gross margin. So with cost cutting, better improvement in our execution, quality, we are going to achieve the 7% gross margin next year.
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