Throughline · holding view Deep analysis Q4 FY24
RVNL Rail Vikas Nigam Limited · Other Q4 FY24 · concall
Pattern: kyrgyzstan project update

Bidding pivot is going wrong on margin (10%+ proof at Q4FY24 -> 4-5% EBITDA reality) and on inflow (INR20-25k cr/yr target -> INR1,528cr in 9M FY26).

6 weak · 11 clean pushback across 6 of 17 Q&A turns

Focused evidence 6 of 17

Ranodeep · MAS Capitalweak

Sir, I wanted to check any update on the Kyrgyzstan deal of INR18,000 crores.

We had earlier signed an MOU. Then what has happened is that we were given the assignment of preparation of the DPR, then tying up with the financial institutions. So we have prepared the DPR, the tying up, etcetera, has been done. And now the government of Kyrgyzstan is working on this. And see, the project life cycle has got different stages. So in that particular project, nothing was available. So the initial stage that the concept, the alignment, the DPR, etcetera, have been done. The discussions have also been made with the financial institutions for the financing part. The project is very much viable. And we had signed MoU for four projects. And we are very keenly waiting for the approval of the DPR and also the approval for the project implementation.

Shreyans Mehta · Equirus Securitiesweak

How much will we be investing more in Vande Bharat, or is this the max we have to invest?

As the project keeps on moving forward, we may have to infuse more.

Tushar Raghatate · Kamayakya Wealth Managementweak

Can you give the range of margin profile for that high-speed track-line order?

We do not have any order for the high-speed. And the margin for the nomination projects is fixed. It is 8.5%. And for the projects which we are taking -- the margins will vary from the project to project, because every project's nature is different. No two projects are identical, number one. Number two, all are having different kinds of financial risks. We are doing some value additions. We are allocating risk. But at the same time, we are also eyeing for the margins. So I have cited two examples of the Indore metro and the Maldives project, which are our first project in India and first project overseas, which we have secured through the bidding. They are the margins which have come for the year '23, '24 is more than 10%.

Vishal Periwal · IDBI Capitalweak

The current order book is INR85,000 odd crores — can you give a breakup between nomination and bidding?

See, around 36,000 exactly exact numbers I may not be having, but you can say 40, 45 kind of break up. Remaining bidding, bidding, bidding.

Ranodeep · MAS Capitalweak

Have you quantified the opportunity from the IMEEC (India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor) the Government has planned?

So, yes, this was announced in G20 and see it has got big opportunities for RVNL. It has got the basically railway segment. It has got the marine segment. We were working in the marine work for the Maldives project. Earlier, we had executed bridges in the backwater. So, we have got the exposure of executing the marine works. We have got plenty of exposure of Indian railway track works. We have commissioned more than 16,000 kilometers of railway infrastructure. So, as far as the capabilities is concerned we are fully capable. We have got the proven track record. In last 13 years, we have been rated excellent by the Department of Public Enterprises.

Ranodeep · MAS Capitalweak

What is our aspirations of getting into solar with Jackson Green JV?

We are looking for the opportunities, all kinds of opportunities. We have got a very beautiful tagline from local rail infra to global all infra. So, earlier we were executing we used to have only one client, that is the Ministry of Railways and we are executing all the railway infrastructure. Now, we have entered into the international market and it is not limited to the railway infrastructure. So, we are very keen for these kinds of projects where the plenty of scope is available worldwide. So, in that initiative, we have entered into that and we are 100% confident and sure that we will be able to deliver those projects with very good margin in time to come.

Other Q&A (11)
Ranodeep · MAS Capital

If I see — 2019 our sales used to be around INR10,000 crores and five years down the line, we are at INR21,000 crores. Profits doubled from INR700 cr to INR1,500 cr. With an INR85,000 crore order book, do you foresee the same trend continuing for the next five years?

Okay. So let us -- you have asked about the numbers. So the PAT has increased, it is 2.4x in last six years. This year it is INR1,463 crores and six years back it was only INR600 crores. In terms of the top line, if you see, previous year it was 20,281. So there is an increase of 7%. But previous to previous year, it was 19,381. So that increase was roughly 5%. But previous to previous year, that was in the year 2021, it was 15,710. So we are coming on the track. There is an increase in basically top line by around 7%. The bottom line is increasing by 17.94%. We have all the time saying that -- we have been saying that we are more focused towards the bottom line. We want to get the better margins. And we want to grow with this tradition that the top line may increase by 5%. The bottom line growth, which is roug hly 15%, should continue over the next five years.

Ranodeep · MAS Capital

On margins — for our nominated railway projects we work at an 8.5% model. If I combine this with the project that you are bagging from the market, what is our aspiration in the coming years?

See, earlier we were executing the projects on the nomination basis where the margins were fixed as per the revenue stream fixed by the Ministry of Railways. Now we are in the market, so there would be some projects where the margin will be less. There will be some projects where the margins will be very good. So I will cite first project which we took through the bidding in Indore Metro. In the FY'23-'24, it has given the margin of 10.66%. And the first overseas project of Maldives, it has resulted into a margin of 11%. And the total turnover in these two projects is roug hly INR1,000 crores with a margin of 10% plus. So what I want to tell you is that it depends upon your ability to execute the projects, what kind of value engineering you want to take, and what kind of basically planning, etc etera, the procurement and then timely delivery, everything is basically required to be considered. And then we have proved that yes, from the market also we can earn. And these two first projects in India, first project in overseas have resulted into a margin of more than 10%.

Shreyans Mehta · Equirus Securities

On the Vande Bharat trainset order — do we need to incur any capex, do we get any mobilization advances, and what is the schedule of work?

Okay, so let me answer a few things. Let me give you some background about the status of the project. As you know that we have been awarded a co ntract for manufacture of 120 trainsets. This will be manufactured at Latur. So as per the contract, we have got a shareholding in the SPV, where RVNL is having a share of 25%. The agreement was signed in the month of September 2023. Equity injection till date by RVNL is INR151.7 crores. See, the layout and the colour scheme of the trainsets is under approval with the ministry. And we have provided the different options. Then the mock-up, for the purpose of mock-up, we have already awarded a border contract to a company called M/s. Kineco, a Goa-based company. And we have submitted the colour scheme. Mock-up is under, in advance phase of product basically completion. And the schedule of manufacturing is that we have to start from the November, December 24. And the first prototype supply is likely to be completed by September 25. And then in first year, 12 numbers, second year, 18 numbers, third year onwards, 25 numbers.

Shreyans Mehta · Equirus Securities

Once we deliver, can we bid on our own for further Vande Bharat opportunities, or will we be dependent on the existing tie-up?

It depends upon the client. The client's requirement of eligibility criteria varie s from one client to other clients. RVNL is a big company. It is a Navratna company. We have got all kinds of exposure and experience. So, depending upon the client's eligibility criteria, if it will fit, then we will go alone. See, we have made a policy even for the different kinds of infrastructure projects that if we are having the credentials, we are going alone. We are not tying up with anybody. And here is also the case that if some client wishes that the eligibility criteria, we will be able to satisfy, then we will go alone. There is no point to go with anybody else.

Shreyans Mehta · Equirus Securities

How much have we invested in the various JVs and SPVs till date?

INR1,600 plus crores we have invested in the various SPVs, which includes the five number of special purpose vehicles of the basically typical railway infrastructures. Then we have got the MMLPs, the multi-model logistics, which are coming up at Chennai, Bangalore, Indore and Pune. Then we have got some companies like this Chatra Expressway Limited, where we have got a share of around 50%. Then we have got, there is a Chandikhole-Paradip, where we have got the 100%, that is 100% subsidiary. So, altogether you can say that around INR1,600 crores plus we have invested in the various SPVs and JVs and then other companies.

Shreyans Mehta · Equirus Securities

In next one, two years, how much do we need to invest more in SPVs?

See, we are, we have got a turnover of around INR 21,000 crores, order book of INR 85,000 crores. We want to grow the top line at a rate of around 5 % to 7%. And in order to grow like this, all the time we want to ma intain an order book of around INR 75,000 crores to INR1 lakh crores. INR1 lakh crore is an aspirational target. And whatever opportunities come, we will try to infuse the equity. But we are also guided by the Ministry of Railways, Government of India, where there is a restriction that beyond certain limits, you will have to go to the Ministry for the approval. So, what I understand is around 30% of the net worth we can infuse, which is around, in this time net worth is 7,000 today? Net worth is around 7,000. So, 30 % of the net worth we can infuse. And beyond that, if you want to invest, then you will have to go to the Ministry of Railways and Ministry of Finance. The net worth is around INR7,867 crores. So, roughly INR8,000 crores. Up to INR2,200 crores. So, up to INR2,200 crores, we can infuse the equity.

Tushar Raghatate · Kamayakya Wealth Management

Sir, what percentage of our order book is high-speed railway travelling?

See, high-speed, we have got nil work order, order book. And we have got basically metros, railway projects, metro segment is a preferred segment. We are executing metros in seven cities. And high-speed, your question is, what is the percentage in the high-speed? Presently, it is zero, but we are very keen. And if you go through the draft vision, which is for the Viksit Bharat 2047, a huge plan is there for infrastructure building in the high-speed corr idors. And RVNL is technically very competent and having proven track records. We would like to have good order for the high-speed network as well.

Vishal Periwal · IDBI Capital

Can you give color on major key orders that we are executing and the size?

Let me, let me talk about the signaling system. So, this is a new vertical. So, we have got order worth more than INR700 crores. In that particular INR700 crores, in Southern Railway, we have ABS, provision of ABS in Jolarpatti Road Junction of Salem Division, that particular project is costing more than INR239 crores, roughly INR250 crores. So, this is a big project. And we have got plenty of scope for the S&T works. Then, if you want to know the electrical works, we are executing all kinds of works, whi ch includes the electrical system, metro system. So, we have got the different verticals, we have started executing the metro segments, like we are executing depot, we are executing track work, we are executing electrical and S&T system, we are executing civil engineering works, station works, underground metro packages. So, we have got the complete segments. In the electrical portion, we have got plenty of projects, even in the state government projects and metros and the railways, 2 into 25 KVA. So, we have got large number of projects.

Vishal Periwal · IDBI Capital

In FY24 bidding success rate of 20%, what is the order inflow in rupees crores?

Inflow in FY '24, okay. So, '23-'24, we had participated 142 bids costing around INR 65,000 crores. Out of that, 76 were civil engineering, 36 were electrical, S&T was 29. And the success rate in the civil engineering was 23.24, 21.91%. Electrical, the success rate was much more. It was 35.78%. And S&T was 14.27%.

Ranodeep · MAS Capital

On railway electrification — is there still opportunity in India after 95-98% is done?

See, this railway electrification in terms of the quantum, the kilometer wise it looks big, but in terms of the value it used to be very less. I can cite the example that for a doubling or the third line project, suppose it is around INR15 to INR20 crores per kilometer the railway electrification cost around INR1 crores per kilometer. So, the railway electrification in terms of the money was not very high. Whatever assignment was given to R VNL more than 99% has been done. We are not looking for that particular opportunity in India because more than 95%, 98% electrification has already been done and the scope is not available. So, if you see the aim of the government of India, what were the aims? The number one was that the green transportation system which includes the railway electrification then conne cting the unconnected area which is good for the economic and social growth of the country. Then the, basically, capacity augmentation project, there are some routes which are highly congested. Presently, the traffic loading is around 1,500 million tons. They are planning 2,000 by 2030, 3,000 million tons. For that, the capacity augmentation projects, there are a large number of projects which will come up. We are keen for that.

Ketan Jain · Avendus Spark

What is the order inflow guidance and revenue guidance for FY25?

See, I had given you the number that in FY23-24 we have participated in 142 number of bids costing around INR65,000 crores. For FY24-25 we will definitely be participating in more than 150 bids costing more than INR 75,000crores. Success rate is INR 20,000 crores. So, you can calculate the kind of inflow which we are expecting. All the time, we want to have the order book to be three, four times. If our turnover this year was INR 21,700 and next year we plan for INR23,000 crores, So the order book all the time should be available INR92,000 to INR 1,00,000 crores. So, the basic parameter which we want to monitor is that we should have the order book all the time three to four times and roughly INR 1,00,000 crores. And accordingly whatever we are participating in the market nomination has been totally stopped. So, whatever order book inflow will be there, it will be through the bidding only. So, we would like to have the inflow of approximately INR20,000, INR25,000 crores in a year.

Prepared remarks (5 blocks)
Yes, so as you all know that this particular company is not very old. It is a 21-year-old company, and we have be en given the status of Navratna. And I would like to highlight a few things for the year 2023-2024, before we go to the numbers. So, if you see in FY23-24, this was the all-time high top line, all-time high bottom line. Top line has grown by <strong>7.15%</strong>, bottom line has grown by 17.94%. The first project in India, which we secured through bidding, was the Indore Metro project. And the first overseas project, the Maldives, which we had taken through the bidding process.
These two projects have given an earning of, the Maldives project was 11%, Indore project was 10.66% margin. And the turnover from these two projects were 986 crores, which is approximately 45% of the 2,255 crores of turnover in the bidding projects. So there is a quantum jump in the turnover of the bidding projects. We started only two years back, and the earnings from these two projects were more than 10%. Which was more than the earnings and the margins, which we used to get from the nomination basis. During this financial year, we had commissioned the rail over rail bridge at Indore Yard, the first of its kind metro station at Majerhat.
And in FY23-24, we have completed 12 number of projects and the cumulative projects now, which we have completed is 152 numbers as on 31-03-2024. Then the commissioning part, the number of railway projects are getting reduced. But in one month, in the month of March 2024, we could commission 243 kilometers, which is again a record. And on a single day in the month of March, we could commission 100 kilometers. That is again a big achievement for RVNL. In Rishikesh-Karnaprayag project, along with the Bhanupalli - Bilaspur Beri project, these are the national projects being implemented by RVNL.
And in Rishikesh-Karnaprayag Prayag project, we had executed 60 kilomet ers of tunneling in one year. In the metro section in Kolkata, we have got commissioned three more sections inaugurated by the Honorable Prime Minister. Give me a second. Yes. So in the FY23- 24, we have participated in 142 number of bids. And total bids cumulative up to March, we have submitted 286. So you can see that in last, we started the bidding in the second part of FY21-22. And in last two years and only a few months, we have participated in 286 bids, costing bmore than <strong>1,50,000 crore</strong>s.
And we have backed so many projects. The success rate is more than 20%. We have also submitted bids in the international market, Bangladesh, Maldives, Sri Lanka, UAE, Oman, and Rwanda, Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia, Nepal. So we are trying to increase our footprints. We have also submitted the expression of interest in Botswana Railways, then Namibia Trans Kalhari project team. Presently, the order book is around 85,000 crores. And earlier during the investors meet, I had said that in FY23 -24, we are trying to get 21,000 crores plus the top line. And the bottom line, I had said 1,400 crores plus. Both of the things have happened. And I had also said that we are focusing more on the bottom line. And that is why the growth rate of the bottom line is 15%. How much? Bottom line, it has increased by 15.38%.
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