Refused to commit on fy27 rail price revision.

What is the sales volume guidance for FY27 and FY28? Capex has picked up in FY26 - can you give an update on the expansion at 3 plants and the capex guidance for the next 2 FYs?

Sales volume last year was around 20 million tons. This year, we're expecting 22 million tons - 10% on the higher side. Capex in '25-'26, target was INR10,000 crores, we ended up around INR9,100 crores. Guidance for '26-'27 is INR15,000 crores, and in '27-'28, capex will be in excess of INR20,000 crores. On expansions, we've cleared 3 plants: IISCO Steel Plant, where major packages have been tendered out and farmed up; Bokaro; and Bhilai, which we're just clearing now.

Any further scope of downward revision in rail prices? On Bokaro Steel Plant, what factors were behind the sharp recovery in EBITDA quarter-on-quarter?

On rail prices, during '24-'25 we had arrears of previous 2 years - around INR1,800 crores - factored in profitability. In '25-'26 there was no such arrear. We're running with the provisional price of '24-'25 and '25-'26. '24-'25 rail price will be finalized which will have its own effect in '26-'27. Provisional prices are on the lower side. On Bokaro, in '24-'25 they had a lot of breakdowns - Hot Strip Mill was under capital repair for 1 month but got extended by 2 months. There were also issues in SMS. In '25-'26 H2, things have improved in production, sales volumes, and NSR (better in flat products). Bokaro will do better in '26-'27.

What was the realization in 4Q? Based on April and May, what is your expectation of NSR increase in 1Q '27?

In quarter 4, average NSR of long products was INR53,400 and flat was INR51,000. In April, NSR of long products is INR57,600 and flat is INR56,700. In May mid-month, expected long NSR is INR57,800 and flat is INR56,000. So there is an increase of around INR4,000 between quarter 4 and April-May in the sales price.

What about coking coal cost?

In quarter 4, coking coal average price was INR18,200. April average is INR21,000 and May average is INR21,800. So there is an increase of around INR3,000 to INR3,500 in coking coal prices.

April and May prices are procurement - will the same increase reflect in coming quarter results based on consumption, or over next quarter?

April and May prices are procurement prices, but that will get blended with the stock we are holding. Stock level is around 30 days, so stock prices are less. The impact will be a little less as compared to the procurement prices in this quarter.

Given the Middle East issue and overall inflation, are there other cost items where you are seeing inflation?

SAIL will have some impact on fluxes, limestone, etc., which we buy from Dubai. The landed CFR cost was around $23-$24, now it will be around $35. But in sellable steel its impact will be hardly INR100 or INR200. It is more of a raw material security issue than price increase. We're tying up with parties to get more quantities from Middle East through diverted routes. On fuel, the concern in quarter 4 has been addressed by using PNG in certain locations and creating LPG banks in others.

On employee count and pay commission - based on superannuation, what is the outlook for '27-'28? How should we look at employee cost in FY27 and FY28 given the pay commission revision?

As on 1st April 2026, employee numbers are 49,752 as compared to 53,159 opening - a reduction of around 3,400. Employee remuneration in P&L decreased by INR200-INR300 crores vs previous year. Similar reductions of around 3,400-3,500 will happen in '26-'27 and '27-'28, but there will be fresh induction of around 200-300 at lower levels. We've also launched a VRS scheme aiming at reducing numbers by 500-1,000. Pay revision will be applicable from 1st January 2027. Guidelines yet to come from government - we'll have a look at that in quarter 4 of this year.

So this INR11,400 crores - where should we see this, flattish level for '27?

It is going to go down. INR11,589 crores in '25-'26 - actually INR11,392 crores - has come down. I'm expecting it will further come down in '26-'27 despite having VRS impact also, because the overall strength will come down by 3,000-odd.

What is the NSL volume in fourth quarter and full year?

NSL volume in totality is 1.12 million tons. Fourth quarter is pretty less, around 0.1 million tons or less, because we have discontinued NSL product selling - they're on their own now. We've started selling RINL products based on their request. NSL fourth quarter was 48,000-50,000 tons. In '26-'27, RINL products will be sold to the tune of around 0.6-0.7 million tons.

If we adjust for this, our volumes are close to 19 million tons. So the 19 million tons - our own volumes - is expected to go to 22 million tons. Is that correct?

Yes. Last year, we sold around 19.9 million tons, which is around 20 million tons. If you take out 1 million tons, it is 19 million tons for us. The 19 million tons, we're targeting to go to 22 million tons in this year.

Capex is almost doubling this year. Are we in a position to disburse so much from INR8,000-odd to INR15,000 crores in FY27?

Yes. Last year, our capex was around INR9,100 crores. This year, we are expecting INR15,000 crores, and we'll be disbursing - partly for debottlenecking projects, partly for AMR projects, as well as partly for expansion projects of steel plant. We are ready for that.

In 4Q, RINL volume - is it 0.48 million tons or 48,000 tons? And is the 0.6-0.7 million ton RINL guidance for FY27 on top of 22 million tons or included?

48,000 tons. And the 22 million ton target includes the 0.7 million tons of RINL within it.

What is our crude steel capacity right now? How do we see it going in '27 and '28?

Last year we produced around 19.43 million tons of crude steel. Our capacity is 21 million tons, and we are targeting to produce 22.5 million tons - that is our target for '26-'27. This is through debottlenecking and making 100% capacity from the facilities that we have. New capacity will start coming after 3 years from now, from '30-'31. Through operational efficiencies, we can stretch beyond capacity - 22.5 million tons can go to 23 million tons going forward.

Can you give a medium-term capex outlook over the next 3-4 years and how it will ramp up?

Capex for '26-'27 is INR15,000 crores. IISCO expansion is in advanced stages - packages farmed up, groundwork starting. Expenditures start increasing from '27-'28, with a bit coming in Q4 of '26-'27. Followed by Bokaro and then Bhilai, where majority of expenditures will come from '28-'29. In '27-'28, it can be around INR18,000-INR19,000 crores. After that, every year almost INR20,000-INR25,000 crores when expansion in these 3 plants has its full effect.

The employee cost guidance would not include any provisions you will be making in Q4 for wage revision. Historically wage revision has been around 15%-odd. That will be over and above whatever guidance you're giving?

Government notification regarding pay revision will come. We'll make a provision in quarter 4 of next year, '26-'27. Those figures will be known only when we get guidelines, and that will be over and above the figures we are talking about now.

Coke rate has improved by almost 20/kg in last 2 years. Part is due to high PCI - is there anything else like improved grades I'm missing?

Reduction in coke rate is because of increase in PCI as well as increase in oxygen in the blast furnaces - these are the 2 vices we are using to reduce the coke rate. Even though coke rate has come down by INR20/kg over the years, we are still not satisfied. We need to reduce further by INR20/kg in '26-'27.

BF productivity has improved considerably over last 2 years. What has been the reason?

Because of operational efficiency in the furnaces as well as closing down the inefficient furnaces and ramping up production from the bigger furnaces - these are the 2 reasons. We have closed down the smaller furnaces and started ramping up from the bigger furnaces.

What is your current capacity utilization on the volume side?

Our capacity is 21 million tons of crude steel, but our target is 22.5 million tons of crude steel for '26-'27. 22.5 million tons includes 0.6 million tons of RINL. Excluding NMDC, NSL and RINL, the SAIL volumes go from close to 19 million tons to 22 million tons, which is our target.

What was the blended NSR for the quarter?

Blended NSR for quarter 4 is INR52,000 per ton. In April, it is around INR57,000 per ton, April and May.

On capex - IISCO, Bokaro and Bhilai - what is the capex for each? And what is the corresponding capacity?

Capex of IISCO is around INR35,000-INR36,000 crores. Bhilai, which is yet to be announced, is around INR30,000 crores. Bokaro is somewhere around INR18,000 crores. Corresponding capacity at IISCO is around 4.5 million tons. At Bhilai, around 3.5 million tons. Bokaro around 3 million tons.

On the EBITDA bridge between Q3 and Q4, there was raw material saving. Can you quantify what was the coking coal consumption cost in Q3 and Q4?

Between Q3 and Q4, input price is negative - in Q4, the prices of coal were more than Q3 and had an impact of INR272 crores. But on raw material usage, because of better usage in Q4 we gained around INR429 crores. So it offset the impact of input price increase. This is because of more oxygen, higher PCI and better usage of iron ore. Q4 being a dry month with production high and all equipments good after capital repair, operational efficiency improved.

On iron ore mines - is there any risk to our mines expiring in 2030?

We don't have major problems or risks to our mines. Productions are going to go up - last year we produced 38 million tons, this year target is 56 million tons, of which some quantity will be sold. Going forward, ramp up to 80 million tons. Major renewal issues are not there except the Chiria thing. In Chiria, we are looking at getting that mining lease - it's not a renewal, it's a new mining lease which would enhance our capacity.

Is there a way the government can allocate iron ore lease to any company - say in a backward district?

Government can allocate a mine through auction process to any private company through NPP process. For private sector, allocation is possible through auction route only. So far as allocation to public sector is concerned, methodology is different.

Flats and longs prices at INR51,000 and INR53,400 for Q4. How much was the price increase taken in the month of March?

In March, long products prices were INR55,500 and flat was INR52,778. The price increase from 1st to 31st March is around INR1,400 per ton for flat and INR1,500 per ton for longs.

With capex going from INR15,000 crores to INR20,000-22,000 crores over next couple of years and similar cash flows, would the majority of capex come through debt over the next couple of years?

We're trying to ramp up steel production as well as sales and improve profitability with focus on cost reduction. In '26-'27, capex guidance is INR15,000 crores - we will see how to meet it from internal accruals, that is our personal target. Profitability plus depreciation will give us cash flow which probably will take care of this year's capex to a large extent. Going forward, beyond that, the incremental will come from long-term loans, borrowings.

On 22-22.5 million ton guidance with 21.5 million ton installed capacity - even with debottlenecking, utilization will be over 90-95%, which is practically unheard of. How do you justify it?

In steel making and iron making, theoretical calculations do not hold good. By giving better enablers and raw materials, blast furnace productivity levels go much beyond their DPR capacities. If DPR said 2.3, they can easily go to 3 for productivity. This is happening with us, with JSW, with Tata Steel and everybody. There is per se no theoretical capacity for a blast furnace or Steel Melt Shop - it is only enablers, raw material and practices.

Any threshold limit for net debt-to-equity or leverage?

Our net debt to equity right now is 0.37. In this year, we are trying to improve profitability and debt level should not increase. So 0.37 will further come down in '26-'27 if that happens. That will give a good room for huge capex going forward.

On the sharp debt reduction in the quarter from inventory liquidation - with sharp rise in steel prices and forthcoming monsoon, will there be inventory buildup leading to working capital rising in coming months?

We are personally looking at no increase in inventory during quarter 1, but that is a wish list. It depends on market conditions and geopolitical situations. We're looking at zero-zero in quarter 1. After quarter 1, quarter 2 becomes a little sluggish, and it will start picking up from quarter 3 onwards. Quarter 3 and quarter 4 will have good amount of inventory reduction. Quarter 2 will be quite challenging compared to quarter 1.

On stainless steel - Salem is still bleeding with no expansion plans. What are the plans for this asset?

At Salem we have a plan to reduce bleeding and improve EBITDA. Main concern is operational efficiency in the CR mill where yield is only 83-84% - we're trying to increase it to 90%. We've replaced LPG with PNG and are trying to replace costlier power with cheaper sources, which will reduce cost of production. We'll ramp up production from CR mill and SR mill which have spare capacity vs SMS by feeding stainless steel slabs from imported sources. On BISL, it is in the list of disinvestment - we're looking at getting comfort from government, after that we'll have some plan for specialty steel.

On current prices, do you see possibility of demand slowdown or buyers resisting price hikes? On government capex in Q4 - any slowdown given Middle East crisis? And what is the overall cost guidance increase in Q1 vs Q4?

On demand: generally demand remains muted in Q1 and Q2 due to more sales in Q4 - destocking in Q1 is happening this time too. Price levels are almost the same because internationally prices are going up and rupee is depreciating. For flat products we have safeguard duty - blended cost of imported goods is less, so imports are not in great numbers. Demand muted in Q1 and Q2, then picks up. On cost: imported coal rates increased. Q4 average around INR19,500, now INR21,500 - around INR2,000 increase in Q1 vs Q4. Impact on cost of production will be around INR1,400-INR1,500 per ton in Q1, but NSR levels are supporting this.