Kesoram/ICL integration completes silently.
- Possible early achievement inr1 — answer hedged.
- Brownfield expansion scope timing — answer hedged.
- Coromandel vs ultratech brand — answer hedged.
We have seen India Cements numbers improving at a fast pace over the past two quarters. Now I understand cement pricing was supportive in first quarter. But is there a case that operating performance for both Kesoram and India Cements run faster than your earlier guidance of clocking INR1,000 per ton by FY '26 and FY '28, respectively?
It could happen. Pricing, as such, nobody has a control. As of now, the prices are favorably poised in spite of heavy monsoons. The prices have not taken beating yet or they hold. I have seen prices improving in July also over the exit quarter. So , prices are holding up, obviously, which could help us achieve our targets earlier. But besides prices, most important is the integration effort and there's a lot that happens in an integration effort. It's not just pricing. It's right from people, processes, product, quality, logistics, everything is getting integrated, which helps us realize our goals.
Just firstly, on the brownfield expansions, like so you will be reaching 21 2 million ton and I believe like that's going to happen in like 15 to 18 months of time. One is like how much more brownfield expansion scope is already there in the expanded portfolio? And by when can we expect the next round of expansions to be taken up?
Amit, I think I must have told you also that we have the blueprint for the next phase of growth. It is getting stitched and ready and we will present it to our Board. And before the end of this calendar or worst case, before the end of this financial year, we will come back with the next phase of organic growth. You'll have to wait for that . So Amit, you've got the answer. If industry is growing at 5% to 7%, we will not get left behind to be able to support the growth of the economy and the industry. There are enough opportunities for us, for doing brownfield and greenfield opportunities are also coming up. And this will be our fourth phase of growth that we'll be announcing, there will be a fifth phase of growth which the team has started working now, which will come up at an opportune time.
So you mean to say the volume that you are selling the UltraTech name, that benefit is also being passed on to India Cements' P&L? Any volume you could provide , like how much is in Coromandel brand and how much would be UltraTech coming out of India Cements?
Yes, absolutely. And in Kesoram, there is no pricing because Kesoram sits as part of UltraTech P&L. So there's no differential. Yes. So actually, I wouldn't want you guys to your mind getting diverted with quarterly numbers because month-after-month, the volumes are ramping up, and we should be able to conclude the brand transition program before the end of fiscal '27 next year, we should be able to compete 100%.
Is it possible to give out Kesoram volumes in the base so that we can adjust our quarterly base of volumes?
1.58 million tons was Q1 fiscal '25. Prateek, I'll ask Ankit to give it to you offline. I don't have it readily.
Sir, mine is also a bookkeeping question. If you could just break down the volume a little clearer. So 2.18 million is India Cements and 32.46 is the rest of it. Now within this, what is UltraTech and what is Kesoram, if you could help us split that?
It's 34.64 is including India Cements . India Cements was 2.18. Now further splitting is very difficult because we go on market basis and markets could be operating from various plants. So Pulkit, it's next to impossible because when we have multiple plants in the same market, for example, Kesoram, Sarlanagar plant and our Rajashree Cement plant, both are in Karnataka. They supply to Kanataka, they supply to Maharashtra and various other markets so it becomes a little difficult for us to segregate.
Sir, secondly, just on capacity, I had 2 questions. One is if I go back 3- 4 years, when you first spoke about this 200 million ton target by 2030, if I remember right. Now we have achieved that or we will achieve it much, much ahead of 20 30. So, would you be able to put a number to capacity that we can think, let's say, in the following 3, 4, 5 years because at some point of time, shall we start thinking that there's enough capacity in the industry and that can reflect in our expansion or do you think we are far away?
Ashish, let me give you a bigger picture answer. All of us know India requires a lot of growth, a lot of cement is required as yet. W hilst we call ourselves fourth largest economy, but look at Japan's infrastructure and look at our infrastructure and everything else that is around infrastructure. There's a huge amount of growth potential. And I think next 10, 15 years and I'll request, once I finish, I'll request Jhanwar ji also to give his inputs. But there is a long way that India will keep seeing growth. And as long as India keeps seeing growth, I don't have a number, but we will grow in line with India's growth requirements of cement. Yes, we might reach a saturation point in the distant future.
I just want to add one more point. Sir, because we have heard this for many, many years, and some of it has played out also in terms of growth. But then I'm just struggling to understand why cement growth is through volatile let's say, even 4Q, if it was 4.3% growth, I mean, why are we not seeing that prolonged period of high single-digit growth or, let's say, 7%, 8% growth at least.
Ashish, we can have a long discussion offline and to understand what happens in the industry. But there are multiple factors. Last year, what happened and year before last year, fiscal '24, we saw double-digit growth after COVID , coming out of COVID. The industry saw double -digit growth year after year , fiscal '25 had its own challenges. If I recall, fiscal '17 had its own challenges because GST was introduced , then RERA was introduced. So there have been structural changes in the economy, which have had their share of impact on demand. But structurally, as you see the number of kilometers of roads that need to be done in India is humongous.
Sir, my second question is, you did indicate on pricing trends. But would it be possible for you to give some color on the trade and non-trade price gap, specifically in South, given what we understand that the price increases on the non-trade side have been significantly sharp versus trade?
I always ask you guys to help me with this information, you know it better than I do.
And sir, just last one question. Sir, any specific plans you would like to lay out on RMC given competition is actually moving quite quickly? I'm referring to the unlisted player who is there in the marketplace.
As my late Chairman once said, Mr. Aditya Birla , we are not afraid of the competition , let the competition be afraid of us. So that's a very serious statement. And I think, we are focused on our growth. We know that RMC will keep growing. We have already crossed 400 mark this year, we'll keep growing. And Ritesh, you know that they are all margin accretive, which means over and above the EBITDA, they generate a contribution.
Great. Great. And if I may just ask a second question. Lead distance is like very happy to see our lead distance reduction from 384 in the previous quarter to 370, as we say. But I'm just trying to see the savings in actual numbers in the sense of 14 kilometers of sequential savings even if I assume a ballpark INR3 like per ton per kilometer, even then that's almost over INR40 per ton of sequential savings. I'm not able to see that in the numbers. Am I missing anything here , sir?
So in our graph that we show you, INR1 ,182 to INR1 ,158. This is a INR24 saving, which is visible. My accounting might not be as aligned and linear with the costing. That's the only answer I would have. But the fact is, yes, the lead distance has gone down. And if I do the math of PTPK, it should reflect. But besides the lead distance, there are lots of other costs which are attached, let's say, handling cost, warehousing costs, everything would get added in my logistics cost, forwarding costs, agents involved. So there will be lots of other elements of costs involved. So Navin, maybe I don't think mathematically, it will stack up.
So first is what is the end plan with respect to India Cements? I mean, considering the synergies and integration would be at some point looking to merge this with UltraTech or be open to keeping it as a separate entity and what would be the rationale if we want to keep it as a separate entity?
So as of now, we don't know which side we will move. First and foremost, it's very important for us to clean up the India Cements operations, bring it up to speed, which is a turnaround of the company, align people's processes, product, as I mentioned earlier, and then we will take a call on whether to merge or not to merge. We are fully cognizant of a huge amount of stamp duty that would be involved. Why spend money on that? But if it's worthwhile, perhaps in '27 or '28, actually, we will revisit the decision. As of now, it will continue as a separate entity.
Just to clarify, sir, when we say, we will grow 10% volume growth in FY '26, this is on 135.8 million tons. That's what we have done at consol level in FY '25? So I'm just trying to clarify on that, we are seeing a 10% growth. So that means including the India Cements also where maybe we would be doing close to 9- 9.5 million tons. So if I remove that, then maybe a 3% to 4% kind of a growth would be there, if I take a 10% growth?
Yes. Okay. Yes, please. If you're wanting to do a math check, then do that separately. I'm not doing a math right now.
Second, sir, in terms of the cost reduction, what we have talked about last time, INR300 odd, INR86 we have done in '25. So that remains intact. By FY27, we'll be seeing another INR200, INR215.
I don't know how much. Whatever we are able to achieve, we will report it. Because as somebody just picked up, logistics cost is coming down. Nobody has asked me or complimented me on the way clinker conversion factor has gone up. Can you imagine the quantum of gain which the operations have now with a clinker conversion factor of 1.49? It's jumped from 1.44 last quarter. So there are lots of efforts, sir, which are happening and which we will report at the end of the year. Month-to-month, day-to-day, quarter-to-quarter, it's next to impossible to measure.
True. True. True. So I understand. I was about. Sir, lastly, on the capex, if possible for FY '26 and '27.
We have close to INR10,000 crores this year. We'll come back for the next year capex in due course.
Sorry, just following up. One is, I don't know if I missed this, but did you give the industry growth number for this quarter? Last quarter you said was 4%.
No. No. I didn't give it. I didn't give it. We'll discuss it tomorrow, Raashi.
Second is this tolling arrangement that you have with India Cements . So, when I'm trying to look at the India EBITDA per ton, that is basically standalone plus UltraTech, is there any sort of intercompany elimination that I need to take? Like last quarter, the India EBITDA per ton was INR1,175 in the fourth quarter. Is that number INR1,230 now in this quarter?
Which means including India Cements operations. Is that what you're looking at? India EBITDA per ton. I will give it to you if not on the call then later on. I don't have it immediately.
I understand South price hikes sustained a month after month during the quarter. Now this was also on back of multiple months of unsustainable weak pricing in the region. And second, demand was pretty good in the region during the quarter. Now my question is how should we look South from here?
So you want to look South, go North, don't go Southwards that's in the lighter vein. Our sense is that the South markets is getting consolidated are in good shape. So we should not feel any negative pressures as of now. Luckily, there are mega projects, which are happening in the Southern states. If I look at the c ommercial markets for data centers, offices, warehousing, everything is adding up. So it should be good. Just to further add upon what Atul said, the South prices were so low that the entire industry suffered very badly in last one year. So that's number one. Number two, I think there is a good trigger on the demand side, particularly the change of state leadership in Andhra Pradesh where now again, the new capital is being planned and a lot of infrastructure projects have been announced. Even in the Telangana, which is still not up to the market, actually, but there are good green shoots that they will also pick up. Tamil Nadu is also going for election after some time. So I think South in terms of demand should do well. So South could be a new North.
Just a question on the realization that 2.2% increase that you see sequentially , is that when you say it's UltraTech brand that includes Kesoram as well?
No, that's at UltraTech level. Because Kesoram still has its own brand sales and fast migrating India Cements also has its own brand. Of course, India Cements is not included in the number. But this is speaking about UltraTech as a brand. And that's what I've highlighted on the slide also.
If you could give us a stand-alone realization as an UltraTech plus Kesoram, not India Cements, but UltraTech plus Kesoram, what is that differential sequentially?
Considering the volumes, Raashi, it might be up, 0.1% or so lower. That's it. The size is very small. So it will be 2.3%, not beyond that, Raashi.
And possible to share the building products number for 1Q last year revenue? And lastly, what was the capex during this quarter?
Around INR185 crores, Ankit tells me that. It has been around INR 2,000 crores. Generally, that's been the run rate every quarter. I don't remember the exact number, but it should be around that level only. No, no. So India Cements will fund its own capex.
And also on the rebranding strategy for Kesoram India Cements and is there some tolling happening between India Cements and UltraTech?
Yes, please. So the way we are dealing with it, whatever output is getting converted into UltraTech brand and the prices that UltraTech is able to realize on that, everything is passed on to India Cements, except for a small margin which takes care of the marketing expense, which UltraTech incurs, which is roughly INR10 a bag or INR200 a ton. And if I were to account that component in India Cements' P&L, the reported INR400 per ton would actually be INR458 per ton.
Congrats on good results. My first question is on pricing. You said it's like 2%-2.5% increase in pricing. I guess, is this largely related to South ? How are the other regions just stand out in the quarter?
South and East to which had trailed behind took the maximum advantage or maximum gain followed by North and West.
I was saying that in July also, you said like prices are slightly higher. So how are that region-wise?
I would say East continues to rise. And we've seen increases in other markets, except North. North and West, we have not seen any increases because they are already very well priced. Other markets are seeing very small increases.
Sir, I fully appreciate that. What I'm trying to come to is what is the kind of annual volume growth that we are looking at, given the base has changed, it's making a little difficult for us to be able to calculate it, which is why a base number would help? But if not, if you could give us a sense of what's the annual volume growth approximately that you are looking at?
We would target a double -digit growth given the fact that we have got new capacities into our fold. We would be commissioning. We have already commissioned 3.5 million tons this quarter, which will get stabilized by the time we reach January, March. We'll have further close to 10 million tons of new capacity, which will get commissioned as we move along. But on the base of FY '25, we'll do a double-digit growth, definitely.
Sir, my second question is on your finance cost. Again, at the consol level has come down meaningfully. Is there scope for that to come down more? Has the interest rate been reset across the board? How should we look at that also?
So there's one more reset . The last RBI rate cut, which happened has not yet come in, and I believe there could be 1 or 2 more rate cuts within the Indian interest rates, which will benefit us. My average cost of borrowing would be 7%. For the previous quarter was 7%. This 7% will come down with the rate cut, which have already been announced and further, if at all, anything happens. Pulkit, we have also been able to reprice, refinance India Cements borrowings also. They are also getting rated AAA with more or less the same kind of range, same rates.
Sir, firstly, the double-digit growth you spoke about in fiscal '26 is with Kesoram in the base or that is without Kesoram?
With Kesoram in the base. Ashish, long story short, we will grow higher than the industry. Not really. Because Kesoram is 14 million tons and out of our 186 million tons, it's less than 8% or 9% of our total capacity. We will not make too much of an impact. We'll still be able to grow. As a moot point, we made an investment. So, it will generate returns.
Okay. So just last question on power and fuel, will we see further increase?
No, no. I think we will see declines now. I think it should remain in the range bound. Yes, range bound, not really increase. This is one element which we don't have a control on at some global event takes place and prices go haywire, which will impact consumption going forward. So as of now, as Jhanwar ji also mentioned, range bound or it should not go up, let me put it this way.
A couple of questions. First is intercompany elimination has been mentioned by value and volume. How should we be read into this? And how should we look at this number going forward?
So intercompany elimination is between UltraTech and ICEM now, right? Sorry, this is between like cement, which is supplied to our own captive consumption for RMC . This is going to be part of life. But on a INR20,000 crores of revenue, this quarter is about INR500 crores. On a current scale of operations, you can factor in the INR00 crore s number. Because we are growing our RMCs. We are growing our BPD , the construction chemicals. We are growing organically on our projects where we consume our own cement . So that elimination has to be done.
Okay. So I'll move to the third question, sir, how should one link Birla Pivot to UltraTech? How are the linkages between the 2 entities? And does UltraTech benefit out of Birla Pivot by any means?
No, not really, only sometimes if they use our network.. So cement and our product, any other product that we manufacture under our Building Product division, we deal with it directly. They are selling any other product directly.
Okay. And sir, any update on wires and cables?
Major orders have already been placed, long-lead items. People have started joining, land leases being finalized. We're looking at some locations in Gujarat. And last I checked, we are on track. We'll remain within our capex plan of INR1,800 crores, we might have some savings only on that capex plan.
Thank you for the opportunity. My question was on demand. So if I adjust to the volumes of India Cements, I think organically, our volume growth is just 2%. And I believe UltraTech grows much higher than the industry. Is this observation correct in the first place? And if the industry is nearly flattish in Q1, we are into monsoon season. So then what gives the confidence of a 7%, 8% growth for the full year?
So Navin, let me answer the second part of the question first. More than 40% to 45% of demand for cement in the country is in the last quarter. January-March is the biggest quarter. Second point to make is cement is very, very seasonal in India. The real season for cement starts post festivals, post Diwali actually. So when labor starts returning. So it is effectively, I don't remember when is Diwali this year, but let's say, post middle of November till the heat wave start setting in the real season is November to April or May. That is the real season for cement. I believe, yes, we will grow much rapidly in the subsequent quarters.
It's a very simple arithmetic. I don't see a reason of any confusion actually. It's a very simple arithmetic. From a domestic volumes, I simply reduce India Cements and to last year's domestic volume, I simply add Kesoram. That's a 2% growth that I'm getting.
No. Firstly, I don't like your aggressive tone. Secondly, the way to look at is if I look at UltraTech brand because as I mentioned, we have been rapidly rebranding UltraTech which has grown 6.5%. So I know there will be some amount of jigsaw puzzle in our sales mix because what we will focus on is UltraTech brand sale, which has actually grown 6.5%, whichever way you want to cut it, that's the real number.
The India Cements, I just wanted to understand, I think you're mentioning that adjusted for marketing spend, maybe adjusted EBITDA was INR458 per ton . Last quarter, you mentioned southern plants, typically for UltraTech would be lower EBITDA per ton given lower pricing historically, given where pricing is, just trying to understand the profitability gap between India Cements and rest of UltraTech plants in South maybe ballpark directionally? And how do you plan to bridge that gap?
So as for the two ways, this is a good question, certainly. The UltraTech brand being generated from ICL plants gets the same price barring the INR10, which I'm keeping in UltraTech . Cost of production of that output might be still be higher because of the inefficiencies that exist. And as we progress , fiscal '28, the costs also will get aligned, prices will also be aligned. We will have parity between the profitability of ICL plants or UltraTech existing cement plants in the southern markets. So, certainly, we'll start capex work, we'll announce it next quarter. We have not yet completed stitching the program. Next quarter, we start, which is middle of '25,'26,'27 and we will hopefully complete, and first quarter of '28, April, June '27, you will start seeing the benefits in the P&L of ICL.
The reason why I'm asking this is twofold. One, these are old assets. So I understand these are all integrated. There is no concept of strict grinding generally. And also in Southern part of Kerala, if you see Coromandel brand is so strong. I'm not sure if it is possible to completely go with UltraTech given the strong recall there. So given all these, you think 100% of branding can move to UltraTech given the asset base itself that the way it was structured earlier with all the preheater and WHRS, you can achieve almost parity with UltraTech on all these efficiencies.
Yes, yes. Let me give you the flavor. We have already done a deep dive actually putting a number of people, te ams, etcetera, identified plant -by-plant, line-by-line what modifications are to be done. And this modification will take us to at what level in terms of heat consumption, power consumption. And that is why with the confidence or with the comfort I'm saying we would be in the ballpark number of about at least 90% of the UltraTech level because we don't have the best heat recovery system practically anywhere except one plant and so on. We don't have the alternate fuel usage actually. We need to optimize in terms of preheater to improve the heat efficiency and so on. So if I may say, honestly, it's any worry to bring those plants in the range of UltraTech, not at the 100% at the level of UltraTech. But it's a matter of only time it may take another one and a half year to one year to, as Atul said, at max two years' time actually.
So basically, the UltraTech rebranding from India Cements that will be sold to the UltraTech entity and all of that will retain around INR10 per bag or 200/t and rest of it will be retained in India Cements.
That's correct.
And third and the last question is, I mean, in terms of capital allocation, capex, where we highlighted right now, we're focusing on WHRS and AFR. But would there be a consideration or a scope for further debottlenec king or brownfield or any sort of expansion in India Cements?
There exist opportunities for brownfield expansion in India Cements also. And as I mentioned, we are now getting ready for our Phase 4 of growth of capex. Phase 5 will also be there where we'll see brownfield opportunities of India Cements location getting tapped.