Throughline · holding view Deep analysis Q4 FY26
ULTRACEMCO UltraTech Cement Limited · Cement Q4 FY26 · concall
Pattern: west asia conflict cost

Kesoram/ICL integration completes silently.

1 deflection · 1 weak · 27 clean pushback across 2 of 29 Q&A turns

Focused evidence 2 of 29

Pulkit Patni · Goldman Sachsweak

What are the mitigating measures against West Asia conflict cost pressures?

Diversifying sources of procurement, identifying newer opportunities, doing long-term contracts for fuel which are now becoming favorable. For bags, nearly 150-odd suppliers across the country ensures volume advantage. UltraTech is better positioned than others to navigate this environment.

Ritesh Shah · Investecdeflection

When do we see India Cements merge with UltraTech? And can you confirm UltraTech's balance sheet is ring-fenced from other group companies?

The balance sheet is ring-fenced - not a penny has moved from UltraTech balance sheet for any other purposes. For ICL merger - there are complicated legal issues inherited. We don't want to take any risks with UltraTech, the main company. Once we are convinced there is no risk to us, we could look at the next phase of integration.

Other Q&A (27)
Rahul Gupta · Morgan Stanley

Given balance sheet strength and capex funded through internal accruals, can we expect payout ratio staying higher for foreseeable future?

I think so, but it will depend on the Board and company's performance. If we perform, if the cement markets do well, I think it should be possible. Over the next few years from FY26 to 2030-31, INR8,000-10,000 crores of capex will happen from the balance sheet every year, but as operating cash flows grow, it becomes very easy for the company to reward its shareholders.

Rahul Gupta · Morgan Stanley

Has brand transition completion helped in giving an edge in realization during the quarter?

Significantly. India Cements volumes for the quarter of 3.12 million tons, non-UltraTech volume was 0.39 million tons only. UltraTech enjoys premium positioning and brand transition has definitely helped. The real logistics efficiency from seamless operations will be visible now with one product leaving from all 9 India Cements factories.

Rahul Gupta · Morgan Stanley

Can you quantify the West Asia crisis impact on other opex and how should we see the June quarter?

The immediate impact in the last quarter - bags became a crisis in March and everybody got impacted. Incremental cost on bags was approximately INR90 crores reflected in other costs. For the June quarter, I don't think there will be too much of an issue. Selling prices have also been increased to cushion the impact of rising input costs.

Pulkit Patni · Goldman Sachs

Between March end and now, how much has been the impact of brand conversion on India Cements and Kesoram?

Kesoram was already operating at INR1,000-plus EBITDA per ton in the January-March quarter. For India Cements, out of 3.12 million tons, only 0.39 million tons was non-UltraTech brand. The real efficiency in logistics from seamless operation will now be visible. Performance will go up further in terms of earnings potential from India Cements.

Pulkit Patni · Goldman Sachs

On cable and wire business - INR800 crores of INR1,800 crores spent. Are we on track for year-end launch?

Yes, we should be on track, on time. We had committed Q3 - in the first month of Q3, we might launch instead of waiting for December.

Prateek Kumar · Jefferies

Can you discuss sequential improvement stripping out international operations?

UAE is only 5 million tons of capacity. Before the war they were at 100% utilization, dropped to 80%, and now with the permanent peace program capacity utilizations are going up. India performance at INR1,200-INR1,250 per ton on much higher volume is the bigger story. UAE had EBITDA of INR267 crores in Q3 and INR278 crores in Q4 - a stable journey.

Prateek Kumar · Jefferies

Can you split the pending efficiency improvement program of INR185?

We are at almost INR185 per ton on nominal basis, we have completed. All these programs which will take us beyond INR300 - whilst we had committed INR300, we will deliver higher than INR300 is what we're looking at. Fiscal '27 also, we should cross significantly higher. We will deliver higher than INR300 by fiscal '28.

Amit Kumar Murarka · Axis Capital

Other brand sales volume was 7.4 million tons in FY26 - is it fair to assume this will be close to 0 in FY28?

Yes, 7.34 in FY26 and 0.52 in Q4. Out of 0.52, 0.39 was India Cements and balance was Kesoram old brand. Next quarter, you won't see it. Almost zero.

Amit Kumar Murarka · Axis Capital

On trade/non-trade mix of 65-35, is this a sustainable mix going forward?

I have seen it fluctuating between 65, 67, 68. This has been the broad mix. The infra red marks in the slide are temporary - the Gujarat high-speed rail project work is coming to an end. Infrastructure investment will continue - Mumbai is spending $60 billion on city improvement by 2035.

Amit Kumar Murarka · Axis Capital

Clinker conversion ratio at 1.48x - how much more can it go in the next 1-2 years?

We have targeted to reach about 1.54x. That road map is already there and let's see how things shape up beyond that.

Indrajit Agarwal · CLSA

In the last few weeks of March/early April, have you seen any concerns on availability of bags or pet coke due to the conflict?

No problems. Dispatches have not suffered at any location in the country. Bag availability has not been a crisis - it has become expensive, but it is not a crisis.

Indrajit Agarwal · CLSA

Are rising building material costs causing a demand concern for the IHB segment?

Too early to say. We have taken price increases for cement in April. By and large we don't see a slowdown in demand. The undercurrent remains strong. Industry growth for March quarter was about 6% to 7%.

Jashandeep Singh Chadha · Nomura

For India Cements reaching INR1,000 per ton, how much will come from cost efficiency versus realization improvement?

First and foremost cost improvement programs. We are still seeing INR200 per ton of efficiency improvement coming into the kitty of India Cements. There is also INR200 of EBITDA per ton on India Cements volume sitting in UltraTech books. Price increases, along with efficiencies, new capacity addition, operating leverage - everything will take us beyond INR1,000 mark. We have reached a number of INR670 per ton on India Cements.

Jashandeep Singh Chadha · Nomura

How is rural demand in March quarter and April, and what realization improvement is needed to maintain margins?

We have operated at 90% capacity utilization across our network. Trade mix has not diluted - we are at 66%, 67% hovering around those numbers, which means rural demand has continued to stay steady. For costs - bags went from INR9 to INR15 a bag, that INR6 delta has already happened. Fuel at INR1.77 per kcal might go to max INR1.8. Price increases that have already happened, in my view, sustain the profitability.

Ritesh Shah · Investec

On RMC - what is the end goal? And on clinker factor target of 1.54x - by what year?

RMC is an integral part of our business. No need or thought process to monetize it. We will always be fully clinker backed. 1.54x is our target to reach by fiscal '28. UltraTech will continue to be far ahead of the industry on clinker conversions, composite cement, and all other aspects.

Pinakin · HSBC

Why has cement struggled to raise prices relative to steel and agri, even with strong demand?

Fragmentation of the industry - that sums up everything. Price increases generally happen in the first quarter of the financial year, not in the last quarter. March is never a period to increase prices because it's a volume period. If demand is robust, prices go up. UltraTech will demonstrate its steps-ahead performance next quarter.

Pinakin · HSBC

With pet coke at 160 and oil at $100 for the rest of the year, will the industry struggle to pass on cost pressures?

No. If every industry is passing on the cost, so are we. Every industry has its own fabric and own pattern of behavior. Demand-supply is always there - if demand is robust, prices go up. UltraTech will be steps ahead in terms of performance.

Raashi · Citigroup

Fuel cost going from 1.77 to 1.8 - is this due to long-term contracts? How long do contracts and inventory last?

Multiple things - long-term contracts, inventory, sourcing, changing the fuel mix. July-September would be some ripples that we will see, which we will be able to manage better than the industry because of our supply contracts and domestic sources of coal.

Raashi · Citigroup

On packaging costs - what is the delta from Q4 to now?

Fourth quarter to now roughly INR6 a bag - INR9 to INR15, so it's about INR6 a bag. Some increase and some decrease, so it should remain in the same range. Price hikes that the industry has taken should be adequate to offset the INR6.

Raashi · Citigroup

Industry demand growing at 6-7% in Q4 - full year number similarly?

6.5% is what my colleagues tell me for the full year. For FY27, we would target double-digit growth.

Ashish Jain · Macquarie

The price hike being sufficient to offset costs - is coal cost also factored in or just packing?

All. I'm factoring in everything - except if you take dollar to INR100, that's not factored in as it's a notional debit to P&L at end of quarter. Diesel has also not been factored in.

Ashish Jain · Macquarie

Can you quantify the mark-to-market hit on forex loan and is it above EBITDA?

INR30 a ton. INR120 crores, INR130 crores. It's part of cost, within EBITDA - hit to EBITDA.

Ashish Jain · Macquarie

Packing cost impact of INR90 crores just for March - should we assume that as the run rate?

No. Prices have stabilized, we have built volumes of inventories and doing alternate sources. With 150 suppliers across the country, INR90 crores cannot be annualized. The cost of bag has stabilized to INR13, INR14 from the peak of INR15+. We have taken care of that with price increases.

Ashish Jain · Macquarie

On India Cements INR1,000 per ton guidance - does it include EBITDA booked in UltraTech standalone due to tolling arrangement?

All inclusive. You will see INR800 in India Cements books and INR200 of that coming in UltraTech books. We have committed INR300 of cost improvements and already delivered INR185, and we will do more than INR300 - that gives some indication of India Cements trajectory.

Ashish Jain · Macquarie

Cash generation will be much higher than INR10,000 crores capex - how should we think about the surplus?

The Board has already taken action - the INR240 dividend is the answer. It's a very thought-through strategy. The direction is already visible from 10% of profit in 2020 to 37% of profit, and the proposed dividend is 3x last year's. We will manage our Balance Sheet and will not over-leverage.

Satyadeep Jain · Ambit Capital

Given capex and OCF, should we expect a higher dividend rate or target return on capital? Is wire and cable the only non-cement adjacency?

We are already writing the blueprint beyond 240 million tons. Close to plus/minus INR15,000 crores to be spent on that. There will be capex on cement beyond 240 million tons. And yet our OCF will be large enough to reward shareholders. For adjacencies - as of now, I don't have anything beyond wire and cable. Dividend direction is already visible.

Satyadeep Jain · Ambit Capital

Are you adding any thermal power plants given your ambitious green energy targets?

No thermal capacity. We are adding a higher level of WHRS, tying up renewable and at several locations grid is also available now. We are not adding any thermal capacity.

Prepared remarks (5 blocks)
Thank you. Good evening to everybody. I want to begin not with numbers, but where we stand as a company because fiscal '26, in my view, is a year that will be looked back on as a genuinely significant year in UltraTech's story. And fiscal '27 started with an achievement of major milestones. UltraTech crossed <strong>200 million</strong> tons of cement production capacity in India, a first for any company in a single country outside of China. Let me put this in context. We reached 100 million tons in 2019, added another 50 million tons in 5 years by 2024, and we completed a journey from 150 million to 200 million tons in less than 2 years. This is a feat, even more remarkable since we are a full year ahead of our targets as what we had set for ourselves. Let's be clear on what the number means. It's not simply a headline. It's an expression of our strategy to build scale that compounds in cost efficiency, in market reach, in raw material security and in sustainability. Every ton of capacity we add reinforces every ton that came before it. Let's look at our position globally. Outside of China, UltraTech is today the largest cement company in the world by sales volume. And we are the only cement company anywhere in the world to have over 100 million tons of production capacity within a single country. We are 200 million tons. These are not rankings we have stumbled into.
These are the results of a very deliberate strategy, disciplined organic growth, timely acquisitions, at the right price and a relentless focus on execution. From somewhere around <strong>65 million</strong> tons in 2016 to 200 million tons today, we have more than tripled our capacity in a decade. Our next horizon is already set. We have committed to add a further 37 million tons, which will take us over 242.5 million tons in a phased manner by fiscal '28. Now I want to speak to something that is very much on everybody's mind, the conflict in West Asia and what it means for us. Whilst I have given an indicative chart in our presentation on where the impact of these rising prices could be, let's be straightforward, it's a real headwind on fuel costs, packing bags and freight, on certain import-dependent supply chains, on near-term sentiment in some demand segments, and the way oil prices are, we could see an increase in domestic prices of petrol and diesel. The government's monthly economic review for March '26 also acknowledged that the outlook has become slightly uncertain. And yet, India's structural growth story is entirely intact, government capex is flowing, infrastructure execution continues, housing demand is robust, IMF has also raised the growth forecast for the country.
Just to rattle some numbers out for you, India did approximately 10,660 kilometers of highways in fiscal '25 and has maintained a similar pace in fiscal '26. The PMAY housing program is driving cement consumption at scale. That tells us something important about the underlying demand base. On the construction cost environment, cement prices have been largely stable in the last financial year with movement of maybe 0% to 5%. Steel prices have seen volatility. West Asia situation is near-term cost moderator, not a structural demand reversal. And we believe UltraTech, with our domestic strength, our 1.8 gigawatt green energy platform, our scale-driven cost efficiency is much better positioned to manage through this environment as well. Fiscal '26 was a year of extraordinary execution. We crossed 200 million tons of capacity. We completed brand migration for both India Cements and Kesoram ahead of schedule. We continued building our green energy capacity, and we delivered volume growth and improved profitability. We said we would do these things, we have done them and we enter fiscal '27 in a stronger strategic position than at any point in our history. Let me look at the Q4 performance and the full year performance. And we'll also share some insights on the integration stories and our cost efficiency program. Consolidated sales volumes, as you have already seen, has crossed a rocking 44 million tons this quarter. Most important aspect about it is to note that UltraTech as a brand year-on-year has grown 19%.
Nobody can take away that thunder from us. Realizations improved during the quarter, grey cement pricing strengthened about <strong>2.5%</strong> in most geographies, supported by an improving trade mix and premiumization. Our blended cement share, premium portfolio contribution both moved higher, which is a conscious and a deliberate strategy going forward. EBITDA per ton, excluding acquired assets, is at INR1,296 per ton for the quarter. For the context, this metric was INR1,225 in Q4 '25. The trajectory has continued. On an aggregate basis, we have reported INR1,253 per ton in Q4 '26. If I were to split between India and overseas, thanks to our UAE operations doing very well, they have contributed substantially. But India has been no less. Remember, the India capacity is almost 196 million tons during this year. If I were to remove the aberrations of West Asia crisis, we have achieved EBITDA per ton of very close to INR1,240 per ton. What am I knocking out from here? The last month increase in the cost of bags and impact of exchange loss, the highly volatile and the frantic devaluation of rupee that happened in the last month. So, I believe we have done very well on EBITDA per ton as well.
Our renewable energy platform has been growing from strength to strength. Today, almost 43% of our power needs are being met from green sources. We have committed to reach about 85% of our power requirements from green energy by the end of fiscal 2030, and we are very confident of reaching that position. On the fuel side, we are actively managing our mix, optimizing between petcoke coal, alternative fuels and increasing the share of domestic coal wherever required and wherever possible. On the logistics front, our lead distance has reduced to 367 kilometers, our ever-expanding bulk terminal network, including the new Lucknow facility and other facilities are helping us reach the customer faster, thus helping us reduce our lead distance and our overall costs. Let me spend a few minutes on the two acquired businesses, where the progress is, I believe, fantastic. Brand migration - 100% brand migration has been completed at the end of March '26. In second quarter fiscal '26, 31% of ICL volumes and 55% of Kesoram volumes were carrying UltraTech brand. December '25, they had moved to 58% and 69%. We have completed at the exit of March '26, 100% brand conversion. The EBITDA trajectory - India Cements EBITDA of INR497 per ton in Q4 '26 up from INR333 in Q2 and INR305 in Q3. Sequential improvement every quarter since acquisition. This quarter, the company declared a PAT of INR60 crores for the quarter, which has been after a very long time. And this INR497 EBITDA per ton, please understand how we read it.
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