Refused to commit on jp associates assets ael.
- Renewable energy commissioning savings — answer hedged.
- Jp associates assets ael — question deflected.
- Q q opex driver — answer hedged.
On renewable energy - 898 out of 1,112 megawatts is commissioned, but you are not able to fully utilize it pending approvals and are selling in market. How is this reported and when can we expect savings?
There are two factors - government approval and capacities coming up and running. As new capacities (8 million tons of grinding units, Bhatapara Line 3 clinker, Maratha clinker in Q1 next year) come fully operational, they will draw more power. Pending that, I am ahead in terms of power and selling third-party in the market. This income currently resides under other operating income in the P&L; if netted off in power cost it would be much lower.
How are we looking at the JP assets sitting at AEL? Would it make sense for Ambuja to digest them based on what AEL decides?
AEL is a separately listed company, and it would be better that this question is asked to them. As of now, I will keep it on an arm's length basis. No comment right now from Adani Cement / Ambuja on this.
In September, you had said majority of consolidation costs of Orient and Sanghi were behind. What is driving opex higher Q-on-Q? Quantification would help. Also when can we expect clarity on the asset-wise expansion plan to reach 155 million ton beyond the 15 million ton debottlenecking?
On opex - some scheduled maintenance for Penna (Tandur was down) and for ACC (a couple of old asset equipment) which was supposed to happen in January-February got preponed to December, hence the cost. From next financial year there will be proper amortization of O&M cost over four quarters. Ballpark INR125 is one-off in branding/repairs; INR25-INR35/ton higher in freight from longer leads; ballpark INR150 is one-time. December exit is below INR4,000 vs INR4,500 for the quarter. On expansion - FY '26 exit is 117 million tons less 2 million tons mothballing so 115 million tons net; ballpark 130-132 million tons by exit March '27 and balance by exit March '28. Asset-wise breakdown will be shared progressively quarter-by-quarter.
You were earlier contemplating giving out operations on a contracting basis. Has there been any progress?
Whatever we are discussing on every investor call, we are moving our journey on that. On outsourcing also the team has done good work and we are in a good momentum; you will hear positive things on that part as well.
On pricing - South non-trade is up INR15-INR20 a bag, North INR5-INR10 a bag. Are there incremental gains in trade as well? Could you quantify average realizations vs last quarter? Also, why is there a slight quarter-on-quarter decline in cash?
There is improvement in trade also but speed is more on non-trade because the downfall was accelerated for non-trade. South will see more blended cement improvement in an accelerated manner; Penna assets and Bombay (an OPC market) launched premium cement. Realizations are improving across clusters; quantification would be too much detail. On cash - 8 million tons of cement commissioning has capex outgo, plus Orient acquisition was INR6,000-odd crores outgo. Capex for 9 months is ballpark INR6,000 crores; another INR3,000 crores for next 3 months, so ballpark INR9,000 crores for the year, with similar plus/minus 10% run rate going forward.
On Slide 10 - cost reduction would be INR4,000 per ton March '26 exit. 9 months we are averaging around INR4,300. With improved conditions in the first 2 months of this quarter, can EBITDA per ton be around INR900 plus INR300 = INR1,200 in Q4? Can we end the full year with INR1,000+ EBITDA per ton?
I can give commentary on cost - January price momentum is very positive and exit of March cost will be below INR4,000. So you can expect overall improvement. But whether 4 digits or 3 digits EBITDA, I would not give a forward-looking EBITDA number. When I say March exit, I mean March month exit - do your math on that basis.
INR4,500 per ton average this quarter, exit at INR4,000 - simplistically next quarter you have a INR500 swing on cost flowing to EBITDA, plus pricing increase. Can you report INR1,200+ EBITDA per ton next quarter?
I would resist on forward-looking statements. I can give comfort on what I can target on cost. But on EBITDA, I would resist on any commentary - you can do your math, you are smart enough.
On 155 million tons capacity - given organic and inorganic mix, when can we expect the organic capacity road map to be detailed? How confident are we of March '28 number when capacities are not detailed?
End target FY '27 is around 135 million tons, then moves to 155 million tons. Will come back with details every quarter on whether it is GU, bulk cement terminal or container terminal - models are reemerging with synergies of power plants and arms. Will sweat existing assets better - 5%-10% from there cannot be ruled out. 155, 135, 115 are the three ladders for the next 3 fiscal years with plus/minus 5%-10%.
With underutilized acquired assets and 15-20% capacity expansion target over next 2 years against ~8% industry demand, how are you thinking on volume growth targets over next 2-3 years? Any guidance on volume, capacity utilization or market share?
Volume will be growing double digit while base keeps increasing. We are balancing volume and value, so accelerated improvement on realization, blended cement, premium cement. Even at the risk of losing some low-EBITDA volume, we will play a balance game of volume and value.
On volumes - excluding Orient, the volume growth comes to about 6%. Was Q3 focused more on premiumization/value vs volume, which led to slightly lesser growth? How should we look at volumes ex-South going ahead?
If I exclude Orient that comes to somewhere like 8%. If I completely remove all the acquired assets and go with the base capacities of Ambuja and ACC, that comes to closer to around 6%, which is a tad better than the industry. Other companies are at somewhere like 3% to 4%. Our larger drive is to regain the market share on the trade side - 65%-35% trade/non-trade has moved to 67%-33% at December exit and 70%-30% in January, gradually moving towards 75%-25%. This will improve realization, premiumization and NSP.
On accounting - in ACC press release, plant maintenance from next fiscal will be amortized over 12 months. Also questions on coal sales now grossed up vs netted, and sales promotion expense treatment. What is the rationale for these three line items?
On plant maintenance - currently cost gets booked when maintenance happens which distorts quarters, so amortizing over 12 months is a proactive step to give a real-sense view per quarter. On coal sales - because of the MSA between One Cement Platform entities, after auditor discussions we now show it gross at both ends instead of netting against power and fuel; the value was INR315 crores. There is no impact on P&L or EBITDA - it is purely a grossing-up exercise.
How should we understand the change in inventory on a sequential basis at Ambuja consol level? It moved from minus 381 to minus 84 - the swing is quite substantial.
If you take quarter 2, that's where we have a big swing predominantly on account of stock buildup which happens that quarter due to seasonality - it is a low quarter sale, so cement and clinker stocks build up and get pushed out in Q3, Q4 and Q1. So the swing is the seasonality of buildup in Q2 reflecting; nothing more to add.
Can you give breakdown of direction for each cost line item - power and fuel costs, etc - how much will they trend down or up?
On power, scope to reduce consumption by 10-12 units per ton; in rupees, INR1.5-INR2 per unit (INR1 immediately) - so INR100-INR125 per ton improvement on power. On fuel, INR150 per ton reduction targeted on the back of new assets and lower heat consumption. On logistics, INR150 per ton targeted via group fly ash synergies and BCFC rakes. On raw material, INR100 reduction. So plus/minus INR300-INR350 reduction will bring cost down to INR3,800 by March '27 and INR3,650 by March '28.
These cost reductions are basically longer-term goals, not exactly visible over 1 or 2 quarters, right? Also what is your guidance for capex in the next couple of years?
Not long-term - new lines like Bhatapara Line 3 are commissioning, Maratha in Q1, 8 million tons of cement this quarter, all geared to consume green power. These are efficient new kilns vs existing old assets. Every passing quarter will give improvements. On capex, ballpark INR8,000 crores for growth and INR2,000 crores for efficiencies, so around INR10,000 crores per year - this is annual capex.
On the clinker units - Maratha and Rajasthan/Penna - by when are they expected to commission? And what other clinker units are planned to reach 155 million ton grinding? When will more details be available on the 24 million tons grinding capacity for FY '27 and '28?
Penna is expected this quarter itself, mid to third week of February. Maratha is expected in Q1 to Q2 with a buffer of one quarter. Bhatapara is commissioned. Engines of growth are Bhatapara for East, Sanghi for West, Wadi/Chittapur for South, and Marwar for North; Mundra is expanding via calcium sludge-based cement. Capacity will be primarily brownfield. Will keep updating quarter-by-quarter on the 24 million tons mix of GUs, BCTs and container movement.
On cost - in Q2 costs were INR4,250, gone to INR4,500 in Q3, and at quarter-close you are at INR4,000. With one-offs of INR150, INR4,500 minus INR150 is INR4,350. How did the INR350 quick decline come from quarter to current?
Branding, O&M, logistics costs and some legal costs came in as one-offs - the delta INR250 vs September quarter resides in some of these items. The first 2 months (October-November) were more on maintenance, December was lean and clean and below INR4,000, and January is also below INR4,000. Confidence on March exit at below INR4,000 is very high. Benefits of green power, etc are coming in and some items get stayed off.
On the acquired assets - they have been a drag on performance. Organic delivered INR1,045 per ton EBITDA. What utilizations and EBITDA per ton do you target by FY '27 end? What are the key levers?
Now under Adani Cement all assets including existing have a target to hit 80% utilization, EBITDA closer to INR1,250 to INR1,300 per ton and gradually move towards INR1,500 per ton. Sanghi turnaround - 80% on clinker for December, 65% on cement; small debottlenecking capex underway to move from 17,500 to 2,500 tons per day by June or July. Site visit planned for February so seeing is believing - you will get larger comfort on Sanghi turnaround.
On industry consolidation - is the consolidation phase over or is there more scope? Structural view on the industry?
Consolidation till 1-1.5 years back saw a good run; it has now taken a pause as deeper-pocketed acquirers ramp up existing assets. As things turn around companies get bullish - this cycle continues. There will still be opportunities at small to mid size, but pace and scale will be lesser than 1.5 years back. With INR70,000 crores net worth and zero debt, we are open at right price and value, but current focus is on ramp-up of existing facilities and organic growth blueprint.
Can you tell how EBITDA per ton would look in different regions in 3Q? Which region underperformed vs the INR715 per ton blended average?
South is generally modest compared to other markets. West is generally better, with Bombay always far better. East was subdued, although it picked up in the last month of December. Center has been completely subdued with very high pricing aggression. North and West are generally mitigated from this kind of pressure; Center, East and South remain vulnerable - South generally vulnerable, East and Center can surprise either side.
On power consumption coming down by 10 units - one driver was new clinker plants. But under the erstwhile management one of the reasons for power consumption was limestone and aging plants. Will 11 million tons really help bring portfolio level consumption by 10 units, or are you also working on existing clinker plant efficiencies?
Both. Stability, reliability and utilization factor of existing plants are key for KPIs, plus blend of new assets. On overall basis, reduction of 10 units. With capacity utilization improving for acquired assets and efficiency capex done for existing assets - including some old ACC ones - debottlenecking gives higher cement volume from the same assets and efficiency improves. High degree of visibility on this - we have done our math and arrived at the weighted average minimum 10 unit reduction.
JP assets are with AEL and you don't want to comment, but if those assets come to us, will they be incremental above 155 million tons or will you stick to 155 million tons by FY '28?
155 million ton has an element of both organic and inorganic. So that continues. Although I am not commenting anything on the AEL transaction, but whether it is JP or whether it is XYZ, 155 million ton will subsume as an overall both organic and inorganic.
Costs were disappointing this quarter and have been volatile. With many new capacities ramping up at lower utilizations to start, shouldn't that also be a drag? Will overall company costs come down or will new plants cost more in ramp-up while existing comes down?
On volatility - moving to 12-month amortization of O&M reduces volatility. On new capacity ramp-up - GU ramp-up is fast; clinker is phased. Ramp-up does not increase cost because they sit at efficiencies; commissioning-period costs get capitalized. So new capacities don't increase cost - they incrementally improve cost.
Earlier on the call, did you say INR315 crores of coal sales is booked differently this time, both in revenues and cost, which was earlier netted off in power cost? Is that the reason realizations are flat sequentially and cost is significantly higher?
That's not the reason. It's just a gross up and gross down from accounting perspective. All numbers we report from management view don't consider that. It's been there in the past also - last quarter the value was less, this quarter it's INR315 crores at ACC level. At consol level, it is fully eliminated within the One Cement Platform - 0,0,0. NSP and EBITDA are not influenced.
On FY '27, are there specific clinker targets beyond the 3 clinker units mentioned? Demand outlook for Q4? And on tax refunds and value unlocking below EBITDA - more discussion?
On clinker - 4 kilns in discussion: Penna, Maratha, Bhatapara plus Mundra; each ~4 million tons of clinker giving ~6 million tons of cement, so 24 million tons GU. 109 + 24 = ~133-135 million tons. Also signed agreement with Assam government for another 4 million tons clinker - the fifth - bringing 20 million tons of clinker. Mundra brownfield, Assam greenfield, Maratha brownfield, Penna in advanced stage February. On tax refunds, magnitude of past will not repeat, but a few points on GST and specific state taxes plus long-pending incentives will add to cash flows. On demand - bullish; Q4 should also see around 8% industry growth, leading players will see double-digit growth.
When do you target the Assam capacity to be operational? And on the 2 mothballed capacities - are these already done and at which location?
Assam is around 18 to 24 months ballpark, closer to FY '28 exit. Land secured, incentive program moving well. Mothballing - very old assets at Sindri and Jamul are already nonoperational practically; on Slide 38 of IR deck. Removed from operative capacity but can be used opportunistically; as of now economically unviable so kept nonoperative.
On Sanghi - it continues to operate at sub-50% on average for grinding despite over 2 years since acquisition, ramp-up much lower than initial guidance, in Gujarat where you have strong presence. What went structurally wrong or what was the negative surprise post-acquisition?
Nothing per se wrong. Sanghi is a classic island plant - last year flooding, storms damaged equipment. Transmission line was low-voltage and is now being revamped by government to take higher load - will help bring 20-25 megawatts of green power. Power tripping happened in storms. Some debottlenecking and dredging done. Now December exit at 80% clinker and 65% cement - only improving from here. Plant life and infrastructure being revamped - eager to take you all to Sanghi for site visit.
Bookkeeping - can you give Penna's utilization levels on clinker and grinding?
Penna ballpark for December is 52% to 55%. Tandur of Penna was down but going up and running in next week or 10 days, so sharp utilization improvement to follow. Krishnapatnam grinding unit went from 2 to 4 million tons - the additional 2 million tons ramp-up has not happened yet but when it does there will be sharp jump from 55%.