Throughline · holding view Deep analysis Q1 FY26
COFORGE Coforge Ltd · IT services Q1 FY26 · concall
Pattern: 5 year capex trajectory

FY26 closed at 29.2% USD growth and 14.4% EBIT.

3 weak · 16 clean pushback across 3 of 19 Q&A turns

Focused evidence 3 of 19

Prateek Maheshwari · HSBC Securitiesweak

On capex - over the last 5 years capex has increased from 2% to 5% of revenues. What is happening with capex overall - it has increased by 350 basis points?

The increase in capex in Q4 and Q1 was specific for a particular deal that we had signed - out of $85 million, $62 million has been received as advance. It is a data centre deal wherein we set up a data centre and that is why you also see the increase in the depreciation.

Ashwin Mehta · Ambit Capitalweak

Over the last 5 years, free cash flows have been largely flattish despite EBITDA going up 2.6x or revenues 2.5x. With OCF to EBITDA of 65-70% guided, what should FCF to PAT look like given the higher capex nature of deals?

Capex is something which has only happened in this kind of a data centre only for last two quarters, so when you look at current quarter it is a blip and not reflective of the FCF of the company. Number two, we have been acquisitive so FCF is a function of whether you do an acquisition or not. Investment in clients gets reflected in OCF unless you are investing in form of capex like building a data centre. On 5-year comparison, FY2020 was a stressed year so FY2021 cash flows went up - it could be a function of base year, can take this offline.

Ankur Rudra · JP Morganweak

On business momentum - because the environment is somewhat uncertain, do you see growth in the second half on a year-over-year basis equally strong or stronger or weaker? And does that mean H2 YoY constant currency like-for-like growth will be similar or better than first half?

Second half has to be much stronger than the first half - that is axiomatic from a sales execution perspective that underlies our budgeting planning. Everything we close in Q2 by way of large deals and what we have already closed in Q1 has to start translating in the second half as new revenue. I do not want to put a hard number, but Q1 has been a robust growth quarter, organically excluding acquisitions we grew almost 6% CC. Q2 should be equally robust and H2 should also be a robust second half. We feel very confident.

Other Q&A (16)
Prateek Maheshwari · HSBC Securities

On reported margins per SEBI format declined 50 basis points QoQ while management adjustments suggest improvement. What is the nature of discounting income on long-term contracts and recurring income from mortgage business, and when do reported and management format margins converge?

Discounting income on long term contracts is an accounting interest entry where if you bill $100 to a client on a long-term contract, $90 goes to top line and $10 goes to other income - it is a notional accounting entry reclassified as part of EBITDA. Income from mortgage business is similar and these two will continue. Apart from that, integration expenses on Cigniti have become insignificant, the previous quarter acquisitions are only ~Rs.24 million ($300,000), and we are only left with the one-time bonus which is a quarter event - otherwise nothing else will be there.

Prateek Maheshwari · HSBC Securities

On discounting income, it was about $24 million last quarter and has quadrupled this quarter. How should we think about the trajectory of this going forward?

It is more of an accounting entry as and when the unwinding of the discount is happening, the amount keeps going up. If we bill the quarter in the first quarter the amount will be low, as time lapses and you are coming closer to the billing, the amount goes up and then it crashes down. It is an accounting notional interest entry and the corresponding value in the balance sheet is sitting as part of receivables.

Vibhor Singhal · Nuvama Equities

Any colour on the demand environment - the July 9th tariff deadline went and now we are looking at August 1st. Is the tariff uncertainty still looming large? Are clients still hesitating?

The run-the-enterprise budget continues to oscillate based on macro uncertainties given the overhang of tariff related discussions, but more importantly, the change-the-enterprise budgets are where given the proliferation of AI we see that the discretionary nature of the spend has ebbed and those spends from our vantage continue unabated. The large deals that we structure and the proactive large deals are also aimed solidly at the change-the-enterprise budget.

Vibhor Singhal · Nuvama Equities

Banking as well as insurance both were a tad soft in this quarter. Any specific reason to call out, or just quarterly variation that could be back next quarter itself?

We will be back. There is nothing that is going to hold back the growth. Banking is still growing year on year at 32% for us, insurance at 20% for us. The pipeline is very strong. So we are not concerned around short term, medium term or long term growth across BFSI. It will be robust.

Vibhor Singhal · Nuvama Equities

How is AI adoption looking in the banking industry, especially BFS? Are core banking systems being modernized? What are the different things you are looking at over the next two years?

Banking institutions are under pressure to improve ROE amidst macro uncertainty, higher interest rates, and intensified regulatory scrutiny. From our vantage business demand is healthy across commercial banking, lending, wealth management, and risk and compliance. Operational resilience and cloud native architectures have become mission critical for banks. Core modernization efforts at banks are also gaining momentum, driven by the need for simplification, agility, and the strategic retirement of cost free legacy infrastructure.

Vibhor Singhal · Nuvama Equities

On margins - can you walk us through the puts and takes for this quarter that despite strong growth and operating leverage, margins remained tight? And going forward in the next two to three quarters with ESOP cost coming down, are we targeting 14% for this fiscal year itself?

Historically, Q1 has been a quarter where margins get depressed and even without wage hike, it used to come down by 100 BPS or so. This quarter we were ramping up one of the largest deals with around 1000 odd people in an account, and despite that we maintained EBIT margins. Q2 we expect margin ramp because the ramp-up has already happened, leverage will start playing out. In Q3, ESOP cost will start coming down which will compensate for wage hikes. So we are confident that 14% EBIT for the year is doable.

Vibhor Singhal · Nuvama Equities

What is the timeline for the final integration of Cigniti? Earlier you mentioned December 2025 - do you think the timeline could be met or could there be spillover?

It is more with regulators so it would be minus a month or two, but December, January should be the timeline. And whenever the approval comes in, the effective date of the merger is April 1st 2026.

Abhishek Pathak · Motilal Oswal

How do we expect the Sabre deal to ramp up sequentially from here on? Should we expect TTH vertical to continue growing over the next three quarters? On a steady-state basis, where do we see OCF to EBITDA settling? And on BFSI - any hesitation from clients or do you see offerings still resonate well?

Sabre deal will continue to ramp up sequentially in Q2 as well, with Q3 onwards we expect resource loading to stabilize. On BFSI we see healthy demand across commercial banking, lending, wealth management, risk and compliance. Banking - high confidence because operational resilience and cloud-native architectures have become mission critical, this is going to be secular longer term non-discretionary spend. We see absolutely no reason for our growth rates to waver. On OCF to EBITDA, Saurabh: 65-70% OCF to EBITDA is what we would like to maintain because rest will be needed for increased working capital requirement for growth.

Abhishek Pathak · Motilal Oswal

What is the capex outlook for FY2026? Do we expect it at similar levels or taper down? 2-3% odd or 5%?

It will taper down. It will come down to our original levels, 2-3% odd.

Sandeep Shah · Equirus Securities

On EBIT margin - Q1 run rate at 13% and full year being 14% means exit has to be 15%. With wage hike effective Q3, what will pull out a 200 bps margin improvement in the next three quarters? Also a related question on depreciation amortization and a suggestion that the one-time bonus should not be treated as non-recurring.

Two things - one, Q1 to Q2 to Q3 you have always seen impact of operational efficiencies coming in and margins going up historically. Number two, the wage hike impact is going to be very limited in Q3, which will largely get set off by the lower ESOP cost - we are looking at 80-90 BPS reduction on account of ESOP cost going down. On the bonus, this was one off decided during the quarter and will not be incurred next quarter or through the year. Depreciation amortization will normalize from here, no further increment, can continue at current level.

Dipesh Mehta · Emkay Global

Can you provide more detail around the five large deals announced? And on the 14% margin indicated for the year - is it as per BSE reported or as per the management presentation format?

On margins - 14% EBIT is a like-to-like of the 13.2% reported in the current quarter. On the five large deals - first was from one of the top three Cigniti clients, an AI infused app modernization $30M+ TCV win delivered by GitHub Copilot, Quasar Accelerators and Intelligent DevOps (US-based). Second was a North America-based digital transformation on Pega Cloud. Third was North America-based transformation of workplace platform with AI-enabled Microsoft Services. Fourth came from the Middle East where we secured a mandate to build GCC for exchange operations. Fifth came from Asia, a transformation of technology infrastructure to enable scaling up of CAC services. Two of three top Cigniti clients are now Coforge wins demonstrating cross-sell.

Rishi Jhunjhunwala · IIFL

How much of the deal wins over the past two to four quarters are market share gains where you are displacing similar or bigger size peers, versus incremental work coming out of newer technologies?

We give credit to sales teams only for deals that are not renewals. A large deal internally is one where the net new revenue being recognized has to be more than $20 million TCV. Almost all of these large deals - 19 out of our top 20 clients where principal competition is a large-scale SI - have been won against the large-scale SIs.

Rishi Jhunjhunwala · IIFL

Top 5 clients have grown stupendously and non-top 10 grown strongly, but there is some weakness in top 6 to 10. Is this temporary and will it recover during the year?

You will see a correction immediately. You will see a correction in Q2 itself, Rishi. There is absolutely no structural weakness there.

Abhishek Bhandari · Nomura

On the BFS vertical near to medium term outlook - when does this business start coming back to a reasonable growth number sequentially? And in the medium term, what are your plans to go deeper into BFS as you become a $2 billion plus company?

Both near term and medium term outlook are positive and very positive, off the back of the best estimate for Q2 and the high probability large deals pipeline for banking. Banking for Coforge is growing on a YOY basis by 32%. Going forward, we expect banking as a percentage of our revenue to continue to hold where it is, because we expect banking and more broadly financial services to continue to almost pace ahead at the same pace as the rest of the firm.

Ashwin Mehta · Ambit Capital

On the data centre capex - is it like we own this asset effectively on behalf of the client and over a period the client pays for it? How is this structured? And can the asset be used for any other client?

We own the asset and we control the asset. We placed them in the location we identified. It has been capitalized and we are providing services on this data centre - the client is not concerned about how much is the capex behind it. The asset is in our books and we are in control. It is not dedicated - we can use it for whomever we want.

Ankur Rudra · JP Morgan

How are you thinking about overall balance sheet investments and intensity as you go after this opportunity? Would you do more asset-intensive or balance sheet intensive deals to capture more market share?

We do not plan to go any further into the data centre space. The total capex was $85 million, $62 million of which has already been realized by the firm. It is a shared data centre where we are offering services to one and over time more clients. The balance sheet leverage is largely going to be for acquisitions that fit the valuation and capability profile of assets we are looking at, but you will not see anything material by way of data centre plays in the short to medium term.

Prepared remarks (5 blocks)
Thank you moderator and a very, very good morning ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining us today as we share our Q1 FY2026 performance and the outlook for FY2026 and beyond. Q1 FY2026 has been an exceptional quarter for the firm. More importantly, we believe that it has set the foundation for what is likely to be yet another exceptional fiscal for the firm. In Q1, the firm recorded <strong>9.6%</strong> sequential dollar growth, and we believe we have established a path to deliver 14% reported EBIT in FY 2026 itself. Our sustained, robust and accelerating growth story is now entering its ninth year. Before I delve into the nuances of the quarter's performance, I would like to reflect on the three key reasons that have driven our accelerating and sustained growth over the years. And more importantly, these reasons will continue to power our growth in the quarters and in the years ahead. Reason number one is an execution intensity that is uniquely our own. Execution, the often neglected, but the most essential part of what gets things done is an art which warrants not just setting and sharing lofty plans, but getting into the details of every aspect of bringing those plans to life. Across every aspect of our operations, be it sales operations, solutioning operations, capability, build operations, delivery operations or even acquisition intermediation exercises, we have created execution centric measurement metrics that are atypical and yet are highly effective. For example when it comes to sales execution we do not only use the standard measures of TCV, ACV signed or year-on-year growth delivered to measure execution effectiveness of our sales teams. Those measures are important, but we have learned over time that for us Coforge, the single most important measure for turning in year after year sustained performance is every week's count of proactive large-deal proposals submitted. Another reflection of our approach to execution is how we approach our big bets. A big bet could be a geo-expansion play, it could be a capability build play or it could be a new partnership scale-up play. Where we differ in our execution is in severely restricting the number of big bets that we pursue as a firm at any one point in time. And we also differ in our execution in that we have never, ever given up on even one of the big bets that we have undertaken. Reason number two is our hyper-specialization in a few select industries. Over the last eight and a half years, it has been our belief that hyper-specialized industry knowledge remains essential to creating differentiation and value. Technology is an enabler, and industry depth is the blueprint we use to apply it effectively. With the enhanced adoption of AI, organizations are shifting resources from run the business to grow the business. And AI budgets are expanding at double digit rates, making AI the primary engine driving innovation and competitive advantage. Coforge is at the vanguard of this change with real world deployments, executing at scale and making impact across sectors where we have hyper-specialization.
Our Quasar AI marketplace has more than 100 case examples of industry-specific solutions that we have delivered. Reason number three why our growth has been strong and continues to accelerate, is our deep engineering capabilities and assets. Engineering excellence is central to our operations. We have built and supported complex platforms for SATs which power half of the world's air cargo. We are now applying this engineering strength to AI integration across the development lifecycle. Our unified delivery platform, Forge-X, accelerates software development and legacy modernization using AI. Real-world AI deployment requires more than just GenAI tech. It demands robust infrastructure, data foundations, and AIOps processes. As systems integrators with a deep engineering DNA, we understand this well. Starting with revenue, I am pleased to report that the firm registered sequential revenue growth of <strong>9.6%</strong> in US dollar terms. In Indian rupee and CC terms, the sequential growth was 8.2% and 8% respectively. The growth during the quarter, not surprisingly, was led by the travel vertical, which grew 31.2% sequentially in dollar terms. The other emerging verticals, which include health care, retail, and high tech, grew 12.8%, this is sequential. Government outside India vertical sequentially grew 6.8%. The insurance vertical in turn grew 1.0% and BFS vertical saw a marginal decline of 1.1% QOQ in dollar terms. I do want to point out at this stage that BFS on a YOY basis is growing 32%. And the BFSI segment is a segment where we see large deals in the works and near imminent. Our top five clients and our top 10 clients grew 24.0% and 15.1% sequentially, respectively. They contributed 20.7% and 29.3% respectively to our overall Q1 revenue. It is important to note that our top five clients and top 10 clients grew by 49.5% and 38.4% respectively over the same quarter last year and those relationships continue to be strong. Moving on to order intake, Q1 was yet another strong quarter both from an order intake and large deals closure perspective. During the quarter we signed five large deals. The total order intake during the quarter was more than half a billion dollars. The exact number was $507 million. The executable order book, which reflects the total value of locked orders over the next 12 months, stands at a record $1.55 billion. This number, some of you might recall was $1 billion a year back, and is currently 46.9% higher than at the same time last year. On the people front, our total headcount at the end of the quarter stood at 34,187. We saw a net people addition of 1,164 during the quarter. Utilization during the quarter stood at 82.1%, a number we are comfortable with. Last 12 month attrition for the quarter fell further and is now at 11.3%.
I shall now touch upon the highlights of the quarter related to our key capabilities and delivery operations. Starting with updates on our AI assets. This quarter, we launched the Coforge AgentSphere with over 100 foundational agents that can address industry pain points across travel, financial services, and healthcare clients. As Sudhir mentioned earlier, we also launched Forge-X, a unified delivery platform that applies AI to accelerate and streamline software development. It provides assets such as Code Insight AI, a solution that can deliver 10X productivity gains in legacy modernization programmes. With these additions, we now have over 20 core AI assets that accelerate execution of services, such as reverse engineering of legacy code, intelligent test automation, and resilient cloud and infrastructure operations. We also launched a number of agentic AI solutions onto the ServiceNow marketplace, including SmartGen Change from crude change management. This agentic AI workflow is among the top five partner-created AI agents now available on ServiceNow. In banking and financial services, we have developed a GenAI powered solution for the wealth and private banking division of a large multinational bank, providing real-time analysis and automated transcription of the calls. For a leading European bank, we leveraged AI to streamline their customer onboarding, loan processing, and business banking outreach capabilities.
Meanwhile, for our insurance clients, we developed a GenAI powered ISO circular form summarizer that enabled automated extraction and summarization of circulars and forms data. The solution integrates seamlessly with platforms such as Duck Creek and Guidewire delivering over a 35% improvement in operational efficiency. In the travel segment, Coforge has just delivered significant value for an airline post-emerger, managing a major passenger service system migration. Finally for a leading Australian retailer, we have been pioneering the use of GenAI to drive innovation within our quality engineering services. Moving on to partnerships. Following a successful service now dispute management rollout in the US, we now offer DisputeXelerate as a prepackaged solution for efficient dispute management based on the ServiceNow financial services platform. Coforge was recognized as a leader in Nelson Hall's NEAT report for ServiceNow across overall, creator workflow, and customer and industry workflow segments, and as an innovator in the employee and technology workflow services. We partnered with Zscaler to launch Secure Access 360 on Microsoft Azure, delivering zero trust access and advanced security capabilities. With Snowflake, we introduced a data insights retrieval AI system built on Snowflake Cortex, enabling non-technical users to access and analyze data with ease.
Summing up in outlook and I will do this very quickly, the <strong>9.6%</strong> sequential dollar growth in Q1, a next 12 month signed order book which is 46.9% higher YOY. A sales execution engine that signed 14 large deals last year and aims to close at least 20 large deals in the current fiscal. A potential pathway to 14% EBIT in FY2026. One of the lowest employee attrition rates across the industry. That set of metrics are all pointers to what we believe will be yet another exceptional year for the firm. We remain committed to turning in the ninth consecutive year of robust growth, despite the uncertain macros swirling around our industry. To conclude, we remain very strongly committed to setting performance and capability benchmarks for the industry. As our industry pivots, there will, over time be a new set of leaders and winners. It is our intent to be at the head of that select pack.
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