Throughline · holding view Deep analysis Q4 FY25
COFORGE Coforge Ltd · IT services Q4 FY25 · concall
Pattern: utilization optimal range headcount

Refused to commit on fy26 30 growth maintainability.

1 deflection · 2 weak · 9 clean pushback across 3 of 12 Q&A turns

Focused evidence 3 of 12

Dipesh Mehta · Emkay Globalweak

Yes thanks for the opportunity. Couple of questions. Just want to understand about utilization. I want to understand our optimal utilization range. Yes, so my question is about utilization. What is the optimal utilization range you are looking for? And in the context of it if I look at headcount addition, it is roughly a percent of this quarter, where we are expecting some of the large-deal ramp-up to play out in the next few quarters. So in that context, if you can provide some sense, that is question one.

So Dipesh utilization we are at 82% for the quarter. We think that is a good number because in our utilization we count pressures as well. Also the other thing you have to note around headcount is while we have declared a headcount addition of 400 odd from that number we have subtracted 600 people of advantage growth. If the business had been continuing as is, this quarter would have seen a 1000 people headcount improve.

Sandeep Shah · Equirusdeflection

Yes thanks for the opportunity. The first question is, if I look at FY2025 and step out the inorganic growth based on my estimate, we have roughly done a mid-teen kind of organic growth. And if I look at also the announcement on Sabre deal plus other acquisitions, it looks like that the coming year with these announcements will also contribute 15% growth automatically through Sabre and inorganic acquisitions. So is it fair to assume the growth momentum what we have seen in FY2025 which is upwards of 30% can be maintained in FY2026 as well?

We cannot give a number based guidance Sandeep but I will just reiterate what we said. We expect very strong growth in FY2026 as well without qualifying the number; the growth should be very strong. Not at all. I do not see organic growth slowing in any shape or manner in FY2026 or FY2025

Prateek Maheshwari · HSBC Securitiesweak

Thank you for the opportunity. Guys, I just wanted to ask on your net other income, it continues to be negative and just wanted to check if this could be a strong lever for PBT margin growth next year.

So a couple of things. If you look at our presentation, we have explained where the net other income is coming from. So there are two things there. Number one there is interest on borrowings, which is there on the working capital. That is number one. And then there is least discounting, which is a standard because of the right of income assets that is being created. But yes over a period of time, once the working capital utilization starts going down, and with the improvement in the cash flows, the interest income will start going up and will become a lever for PBT expansion. But right now with the growth that we are sitting at and with the working capital requirement that we have and we continue to pay dividends. So we believe that at least we'll continue for a year or two for now and then we will kind of start thinking of PBT or interest other income as a lever for market expansion.

Other Q&A (9)
Abhishek Pathak · Motilal Oswal

Hi thank you for the opportunity and congrats team on a great quarter. So I have got a couple of questions. Firstly, as you mentioned right over the past eight years, the growth has been quite significant, but would you agree that this is probably going to be an extended period of downturn for the industry? And if so, does the deal win engine have to kind of permanently pivot towards large deals and cost takeouts or there is still room for discretionary and in other areas that is one. The second question is on the Sabre ramp up. Could you please tell us how the margins have been impacted in the short term and how should we model that? And just on the margins as well, right, I mean how should we expect the reported EBIT margins to expand from here on in terms of margin walk?

Abhishek thanks for both the questions. As far as the pivot towards large deals is concerned, that is a pivot that we have embraced over the years. That is not just a pivot that we have done that is part of our approach towards sales, irrespective of the macros, discretionary spends up or down, we continue to focus on managed services based proactive solutions led large deals that is not going to change. Difficult for us to comment at this stage in terms of how long the demand downturn is going to last, irrespective of the demand downturn, as you would have noted from our tone, all three of us, we are confident that the large deal velocity and the large deal median size will continue to grow for Coforge. As far as Sabre margins are concerned, it will not have any downward dip in our margins. Saurabh had guided to the fact that by fiscal year 2027, reported EBITDA, I am not talking adjusted, reported EBITDA will hit 18%. This year you have seen we are at 16.6%. We will deliver on that pledge.

Vibhor Singhal · Nuvama Equities

Hi thanks for taking my question and congrats Sudhir and team for a solid performance yet again. So, Sudhir, two questions from my side. One is in terms of growth, you had called out that the pipeline also looks quite healthy at this point of time, despite the very strong bookings that we have had in this quarter. So again, I mean, it is just because we are operating in an environment in which there is quite a benign commentary by a lot of our peers. How do you see this basically pipeline shaping out over the next few quarters? Any specific pockets that you want to call out in which we have seen very good strength that you believe could be the driver of the deal wins next year. The next year growth is of course taken care of by the deal wins this year, but what could be the driver or what segments could you see be the driver of next year's deal wins?

Sure so the drivers in our case, the two areas we are focused on are the same areas that John talked about, transformation and legacy modernization. There is always the cost play that we are always aware of. We expect growth to come from multiple quadrants, not just one or two. If you just reflect back on the five large deals that we have signed in the current quarter, Q4 when the industry in general has been struggling. One of course was clearly the Sabre win. The other deal is a very interesting deal where we are offering GPU as a service at scale. The third one was for one of the largest banks AI led QE services and QE for AI. The fourth has been a very large Salesforce led win again for a bank and the fifth has been a very interesting $62 million TCP win from one of the top three clients of the erstwhile Cigniti organization. So it is not just one pillar. It is not just one vector from which we are exploring deals. We see significant avenues. So it is a mixed bag. I will talk about the pros and the cons both. On the con side, given the recent change in geopolitics impacting global economy, we are seeing travel industry take a more cautious approach in increasing capacity and sharing their own outlook. Specifically there in the US, while year on year reported travel bookings and revenue are higher for travel and hospitality, a number of companies have reported reduced velocity. And there is a fear of booking cancellations in the near term. More or less the same commentary in Europe.

Ankur Rudra · JP Morgan

Hey thank you. Maybe just wanted to talk about the outlook to start with. So yes thanks for taking my call. I wanted to get a sense of the outlook outside of the Sabre deal. We understand that will be a significant component of the growth outlook. But outside of that, if you can share, how does the overall momentum look like, given the environment has probably weakened a bit? And if you can give us any kind of update about the medium term target of hitting $2 billion in revenues.

As I said, Ankur, we do not believe that the velocity of large deal closure and in Q4, as I just shared, we signed five large deals. Sabre was only one of them. We do not think the velocity or I mean if you leave out Sabre, the median size is going to deteriorate for us. We understand, we acknowledge and I just shared the commentary around travel as well that the demand outlook has worsened. But given the pipeline that we already have, given the sales orientation, which is very sharply structured on proactive proposal creation, we would expect the velocity, we would expect the median size of these large deals to sustain. As far as $2 billion is concerned, we would not like to share a timeline, I mean given our performance of late, given the commentary you heard, we feel we are going to get there pretty soon. Actually let me make that very soon without qualifying further areas. Oh no, I do not think there is any risk at all to fiscal year 2027 getting to 2 billion. The intent will be to get there faster. We would be a little disappointed if it took us all of us fiscal year 2027 end to scrape by to 2 billion dollars.

Manik Taneja · Axis Capital

Thank you for the opportunity and congratulations for the steady performance. My question is for Saurabh. Saurabh, if you could help us understand how does the number of working days in April, May, June differ and should be a tailwind to sequential growth in the current quarter. If you can provide some insight into that. And the second question is with regards to the margin outlook, if you could talk about the different margin levers, especially in context of the lower ESOP charge as well as sales and marketing expenses outside of ESOP expenses and the gross margin proportion that we should be seeing in FY2026.

So couple of things. One when we look at number of days, so yes, there will be a leverage coming in and that is why I said that between Q3 to Q4, it was a tough quarter and there were lesser number of days. Even when we did a 100 basis point margin expansion in the current quarter, number one. Number two, like you remember that we had given wage hikes in Q2 last year. So again, it is not happening in Q1 for sure this year, which means that there is no depression on margins that is going to come in Q1. And we believe that we will be able to sustain margins that we are delivering now. Apart from that, we believe that the EBITDA margins or the gross margin should hold or gross margin should marginally expand. So that is number one. Number two, from a lever standpoint, 13.2 is the EBIT exit in Q4. As you know that by Q3, this ESOP cost is going to come down from current levels almost by 70-80 BPS further. That is going to flow down into EBIT number in Q3, which will get marginally set up with whatever rate hikes will happen at that point in time. But we believe that between 13.2 to 14 odd percent EBIT, guidance increase that we have, a large part will get covered this year, largely on account of structural changes that have happened in the business.

Abhishek Kumar · JM Financials

Hi good evening. Thanks for taking my question. First question is on Sabre deal and it is a question that is asked to us very frequently by investors. Given the financial situation of Sabre, do we foresee any risk of ramp down or any challenge to receivables or receivable days? And if at all any risk mitigation that we kind of use to protect ourselves?

So Abhishek, a couple of things. One, we have been working very closely with the leadership team of Sabre. And this is one of those accounts wherein we not only have a connect with the CIO organisation or the CTO organisation or the CMO organisation, but also to CFO and CEO and even at board level. So that is point number one, which allows us to get insights on what the strategy of the business is, what they're planning to do and what are the future steps they are going to take. That is number one. Number two, they very recently announced a sale of their hospitality business, which we were not supporting. It was a small business, roughly $250-300 billion of annual revenue and $1.1 billion to pay off their debt. So we were aware of it. So out of the debt of $4.7-$4.8 billion, $1.1 billion will be shaved off. And they have always been operating at a debt of $3.5 billion. So we continue to monitor. The point I am making is that we continue to monitor their financial performance, their business strategy very, very closely. And obviously, we have also taken non-recourse factoring and we have also taken a credit insurance policy in case anything unforeseen happens.

Vaibhav Chechani · Nirmal Bang

Congratulations on great set of number and thank you for the opportunity. So my question is around the GCC business. So any colour on our GCC business, how is it ramping up and how significant is becoming in our Asia geography because our Asian geography is significant revenue growth in this matter. So is it primarily driven by GCC or GCC is just a part of the higher end growth in Asia geography.

Asian growth is not being driven by GCC Vaibhav, but a lot of our growth is being driven by GCC's. GCC driven or GCC influenced revenue is almost 10% of our aggregate revenues as we speak. The largest deal that we are pursuing right now also is a GCC specific deal currently. So short answer, Asia growth is not necessarily a function of GCC growth, but a lot of our pipeline is significantly influenced by our GCC growth.

Chirag Kachhadiya · Ashika Institutional Equities

Hello congrats on a great start of numbers. So I have two questions. Cigniti is offering, in one vertical they are offering testing related services. So how that particular division is now integrated in this consolidated entity and providing some synergy benefit to the existing business of the Coforge and in the advent of this AI related disruption how this is muted offering on real-time basis will not get impacted by this AI disruption at all and second what risk you see in FY2026 and 2027.

Cigniti QE out of the five large deals that I talked about, two of the large deals were influenced by our AI for QE and QE for AI-based offerings. That is a hard data point in terms of how successful the Cigniti business, especially the AI-driven QE has been. Second, in November this year, given our confidence around the AI suite in QE, we are organising an event in New York City, four hours workshop, inviting every analyst there is in the world just to talk about the differentiation that we have built, which was part of our premise around acquiring Cigniti in this space. Third, the Cigniti QE team has been fully integrated into the Coforge unit. There is no longer internally, if you look at us, a standalone Cigniti team. QE is now a horizontal business unit. As far as the risks are concerned, no outsized risk that I can call out when it comes to the revenue. We have not given a guidance, but the confidence that you hear in our tone. We believe we have considered most risk scenarios. We have most importantly considered the demand downturn that our industry is dealing with. And after baking all of that, we still feel extremely confident about what we have shared with you.

Vibhor Singhal · Nuvama Equities

Hi thanks for taking my question again. Sudhir just a question on the Sabre deal again. I mean, more of a subjective kind of assessment if I could ask you for. So, I mean, it is very seldom that we see a company of our size, mid-tier company grab such a large deal. These large deals had always been the kind of forte of the large cap companies that we had always seen. Now, you mentioned, of course, that this was a longstanding client. We have had a longstanding relationship and our domain expertise in the travel vertical is also known. But is there a kind of a paradigm shift in which more and more companies like our size are being called for large cap companies? In your pipeline, are there any more large deals that you are chasing?

Thank you for the question, Vibhor. With our size, we believe we are within touching distance. It is a question of which year we touch $2 billion. We are no longer a small firm as we see ourselves and as our clients see us. With 33,000 engineers across the world, hopefully likely to be 50,000 pretty soon. It is a fairly significant cohort of engineering talent that we have. The Sabre deal was won against two of the largest SIs in the world. When I look at the final shortlist of four, two of the folks who were against us were two of the largest SIs that do play within our industry. We believe the Sabre deal was won not just because of our industry expertise and travel, but also because of the iterative series of workshops around the engineering solution that we deliver for Sabre, which gave them comfort to choose us as their deep engineering partner for a 13-year period.

Abhishek Pathak · Motilal Oswal

Sudhir, just very quickly on the client complaint that we, you know, it is been an ongoing issue for the past, I guess, 18 months, but just a brief update on that and how do we expect to sort of close this?

Thank you for the question, Abhishek. The client complaint claims that a hacker tricked service desk agents into resetting employee passwords, allowing access to the client's customer loyalty database. It misrepresents the company's engagement terms, role regarding the database, and the service desk agent responsibilities. The company did not handle and when I say the company, I mean, Coforge, the company did not handle core cybersecurity services for the client. We had no access to or responsibility for the database, and we were not involved in its management. We are consulting our insurance provider and consulting legal counsel regarding the complaint. The liability amount cannot be determined at this time. We do not want to comment on the name of the client, but the company continues to serve the client regularly since the last 18 months. The client is not a material client of the company and does not form part of even the top 50 clients of the company.

Prepared remarks (4 blocks)
Ladies, gentlemen, thank you very, very much for joining us today as we share our Q4 and our fiscal year 2025 performance as also the outlook for fiscal year 2026. Fiscal year 2025 was a landmark year for the firm where we have recorded <strong>31.5%</strong> US dollar denominated growth. In addition, Q4 again has been a landmark quarter for the firm because in this quarter we booked $2.1 billion of orders in a single quarter. And we have signed five large deals paving the way for what is likely to be a very strong growth year in fiscal year 2026 as well. With that preamble and before I run through our commentary, I want to share an important reminder with you. Almost a year back during the last year annual investor call, we made three assertions. Those three assertions and our performance against those assertions bears remembering as you listen to our commentary today. Assertion number one a year back, we had shared was that what we were making that we were making a contrarian yet high conviction bet by acquiring Cigniti. Assertion number two that we made a year back was, we had shared that we were stopping the process of providing annual guidance not because we were unsure of our performance in fiscal year 2025, but because in fact we were very sure that we would continue to drive robust and sustained growth in fiscal year 2025. And as you can see, we have. And finally, assertion number three a year back that we made was, we had shared that despite the bleak demand outlook painted by some of our peers and analysts for fiscal year 2025, we had said that we believe that there were definite areas where a focused firm could pivot and drive significant growth and we have. We are pleased that our performance was exactly in line with the three assertions that we made a year back on this same call. A few highlights before we dive into the details. It is not just the 31.5% growth in fiscal year 2025 that is remarkable, but even more important has been the quality of that growth. Our growth in fiscal year 2025 has been large deals led and has come off the back of 14 large deals signed through the year. The deal momentum has kept accelerating every quarter over the last four quarters with five large deals signed in the most recent quarter. Our order book at the end of fiscal year 2025 is now 47.7% higher than it was at the same time last year. The growth again has been balanced. Every industry business unit of Coforge has performed well. Every service line of Coforge has done well. Every geo that Coforge operates in has grown and all client cohorts including top five, top 10, and top 20 clients have grown. As I noted earlier, in Q4 we have booked $2.1 billion of orders which is equal to the entire order book that we did in all of fiscal year 2024. Therefore, we look at the coming quarter and the coming year with great confidence. In fiscal year 2025, we registered a consolidated revenue of $ 1.445 billion. We clocked a revenue growth of 31.5% in US dollar terms, 33.8% in Indian rupee terms, and 32% in CC terms. Our ability to drive growth in tough macros was aided significantly by growth across each one of the industry verticals that we operate in.
The growth was led by the travel vertical which saw <strong>33.7%</strong> Y-O-Y growth followed by government outside India vertical which saw a 27.1% Y-O-Y growth. The banking financial services vertical through the year grew by 20.4% and the insurance vertical grew 13.3%. Other emerging verticals, including healthcare and retail grew by 67.9% in dollar terms. Q4 was an outstanding; I repeat absolutely outstanding quarter from both an order intake and the number of large deal closure perspective. During the quarter we signed five large deals. The total order intake during Q4 was an exceptional $2,136 million. We have closed fiscal year 2025 with the highest ever recorded order intake of $3.5 billion and this metric is up 75.1% year on year. The executable order book, which reflects the total value of locked orders over the next 12 months, now stands at a record $ 1.5 billion. This number some of you might recall was only $1 billion a year back and has witnessed a 47.7% growth. Starting with the progress on our AI and GenAI capabilities. Q4 saw significant process on the implementation of our AI led solutions. We now have over 200 real-world solutions developed and deployed. All of these solutions, frameworks, and assets are available to our clients by the Coforge Quasar AI Marketplace. Within Coforge, our engineering teams are leveraging tools such as GitHub Copilot across the software development lifecycle, achieving more than 30% reduction in time and cost on large modernization programmes. Through our AI Spark programme 94% of our employees are now AI trained and more than 50% of our developers are proficient in GitHub Copilot. We are entering fiscal year 2026 with a record signed order book, which is 47.7% higher than where it was at the same time last year. Equally importantly, our pipeline of large deals, where we have high conviction that they will be closed in the short term is unimpaired. For more than eight years, despite the changing macros, both the number and median size of large deals signed by our sales engine has continued to increase year on year that trend despite the uncertain macros the industry is currently facing will continue to be on track. The Sabre $1.56 billion deal that we announced through the quarter has seen an impeccable transition and a ramp-up so far. We believe that more than the robustness of our growth, what is truly remarkable is the balanced nature of our growth across all cuts that is across geo units, across industry vertical units, across service lines. Our confidence in sustained growth in the future rides off the fact that there is no over-reliance on any one growth vector. Our growth outlook for fiscal year 2026, despite the uncertain macros that the industry faces is very robust. We believe very significant growth in fiscal year 2026 will be accompanied as Saurabh said by a simultaneous and a material expansion in reported EBIT.
Let me take you through some of the financial highlights for the quarter and the year. During the quarter, we signed the definitive agreement to sell entire stake of AdvantageGo business at a consideration of £ <strong>43 million</strong>. As a result, the reported financial performance of the quarter reflects performance of the continued operations and all metrics in my commentary will be for continued operations until and unless specified otherwise. During the current financial year, AdvantageGo business generated revenue of $23 million, EBIT loss of $5 million and a cash burn of $8.5 million. During the quarter, we also acquired data and cloud asset in the US generating quarterly revenues of 6 million and our ServiceNow asset in Australia generating a revenue of $2 million per quarter. Both these acquisitions generates margin in line with company's performance. Revenues from these acquisitions will be largely set off by the sale of AdvantageGo for business. We have also ended the year with net cash of 43.3 million as against a net debt of 9.8 million at the end of FY 2024. From a full year perspective, the revenue for the year stood at $1.45 billion, reflecting a growth of 31.5% in dollar terms. Adjusted EBITDA margins for the years were 18% and EBITDA margins were at 16.6%. EBIT margins for the years stood at 13%. The structural changes executed by us and large deals signed during the year reflects our continued focus to drive profitable growth.
With these changes, we have a clear line of sight of improving margins over the next two years. Currently, our cash and bank balance totals to <strong>$1.25 million</strong> excluding the $82 million working capital loan, our net cash position is 43 million. Full year, OCF stood at 147 million as compared to 108 million last year, reflecting OCF to EBITDA of 61%. Excluding integration expenses, the OCF to EBITDA for FY 2025 stood at 71%. During the quarter, the quarterly revenues stood at $403.8 million. Including AdvantageGo, the revenues for the quarter were $410.7 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin in the current quarter, which was a tough quarter, expanded by 100 basis points to 18.7%. ESOP cost has come down by 33 basis points as we guided in the previous quarter and now stands at 1.8%. And as mentioned earlier, it is expected to come down to a level of 100 basis points from H2 of this year. The exit debit margin for the quarter stood at 13.2% which reflects expansion of 123 basis points over previous quarter. Operating cash flow excluding transaction expenses related to integration expenses for Q4 stood at 75 million against 48 million in the previous quarter. This reflects OCF to EBITDA of 108%.
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