US-Iran conflict reshapes the narrative in Q4FY26: GRM disclosure paused, LPG losses surged to Rs.

Lpg under recovery compensation — answer hedged.

1 weak · 2 clean — pushback across 1 of 3 Q&A turns

Focused evidence 1 of 3

Achal Shah · Ambit Capitalweak

Questions on LPG under-recovery, government compensation timeline, and overall valuation.

We are continuously engaging with the government on LPG under-recovery. The time and quantum is not known, but it all depends upon many factors. We are hopeful that our continuous engagement will give positive results.

▸ Other Q&A (2)

Probal Sen · ICICI Securities

How much percentage of our crude sourcing in Q3 was from Russian crude and at what discount? What is the inventory impact in marketing segment this quarter? What is the granularity on refinery expansion CAPEX plans?

During the Financial Year '24-'25, up to December, Russian crude oil import accounted for nearly 25% of IOC's total crude oil imports. The discounts we were getting up to December were in the range of benchmark crude minus 3. But now the discounts have come down in the range of benchmark crude minus 1 to 1.5. For inventory impact — compared to Q3 last year, the incremental difference is INR 7,800 crores. On refinery expansion — we are adding capacity through Panipat (15 to 25 MMTPA, INR 38,000 crores, by Q4 FY26), Gujarat (INR 19,000 crores, Q4 FY26), and Barauni (6 to 9 MMTPA, INR 14,800 crores). We also have PX-PTA at Paradip (INR 13,800 crores, next financial year). Last year we spent INR 40,000 crores CAPEX, this year plan INR 35,000 crores.

Yogesh Patil · Dolat Capital

Do we have any long-term oil sourcing contracts with Russian suppliers? When will the three refinery expansions start contributing to P&L?

For FY '24-'25, we do not have any term contract for Russian crude. For commissioning, Panipat target is December '25, but income will really come in '26-'27 at 50-60% utilization. Gujarat expected last quarter of FY '25-'26. Full contribution from all three refineries will most likely come in FY '28.

▸ Prepared remarks (5 blocks)

Thank you. Dear investors and analysts, a very good morning, and a very happy New Year to all of you. I take this opportunity to welcome all of you to the Conference Call, organized by us, post announcement of the third quarter results of Financial Year '24, '25. This quarter we have registered a profit after tax of INR 2,874 crores, which was INR 180 crores in the preceding quarter and INR 8,063 crores in the corresponding quarter of financial year 2024. From a 9-month perspective, the PAT is INR 5,697 crores as against INR 34,781 crores in the 9M FY '24. Revenue from operations during this quarter is INR 2,16,649 crores as against INR 1,95,149 crores in the preceding quarter of this year. Friends, despite the global volatilities and challenges, Indian Oil achieved strong operational performance and historically highest sales volume.

The global financial landscape in the year 2024 was marked by significant volatility on the back of geopolitical uncertainties, ranging from global inflation, ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, weakness in Chinese economy, and the U.S. presidential election results. The average price of crude Indian basket during this quarter was at $73.86 per barrel, a reduction of about 6% from the average price of the immediate preceding quarter. MS cracks improved during this quarter at $3.29 per barrel. For HSD, the crack spreads during this quarter is $12.19 per barrel and have outperformed the preceding quarter, which was $9.77 per barrel.

The throughput during the quarter was 18.1 MMT with a capacity utilization of 102.3%. Our refineries have registered a GRM of $2.95 per barrel during this quarter as compared to $1.59 per barrel during the previous quarter. The normalized GRM after stripping off inventory impact and factoring the price lag for the quarter is $6.60 per barrel as against $3.13 per barrel for the previous quarter. Pipelines: The capacity utilization was about 69.6% during this quarter. Throughput of 24.9 MMT in Q3 FY '24-'25. As on 31st December '24, Indian Oil has total pipeline network of more than 18,500 kilometers.

Indian Oil achieved the highest ever sale of petroleum products during the quarter of 23.38 MMT. On a 9-monthly basis, sales have improved — 66.61 MMT in 9 months of '24-'25 vis-a-vis 65.66 MMT in the 9 months of the previous year. Petrochemicals: The sale of petrochemical products during this quarter was 0.89 MMT. On a 9-monthly basis, petchem sales in the 9M FY '25 was 2.407 MMT.

The borrowings as on 31st December '24 has increased by about INR 15,000 crores, and is at INR 1,31,480 crores. With the current debt-to-equity ratio of 0.77 as at 31st December '24, Indian Oil is comfortably placed to fund the ongoing CAPEX plans.

Watch next

Whether the lpg under recovery compensation hedge tightens to a number.