US-Iran conflict reshapes the narrative in Q4FY26: GRM disclosure paused, LPG losses surged to Rs.
- Russian crude sourcing petchem — answer hedged.
- Lpg compensation earnings outlook — answer hedged.
- Dividend policy lpg decontrol — answer hedged.
What was the contribution of Russian crude in overall sourcing in Q4? What is the outlook for FY26?
We had imported 22% in '24, '25 for the full financial year. Although in the fourth quarter, it came down to almost 14%. We have again seen the increase in the Russian crude availability, and we are hopeful that this year, in '25, '26, we should be touching around 24%, 25%. On petrochemical margin environment — we can't give any specific timeline, but the cycle is expected to turn around in the next 2 to 3 years. So the petchem margins should also improve by the time our new projects come up.
When could we receive the LPG money? Can you talk a little bit on earnings momentum for the current year? How do you see profitability shaping up?
The time and the quantum is not known, but it all depends upon many factors, geopolitical factors, other things which keep on affecting the oil marketing companies. On profitability for FY '25-'26, we hope that it should be a good year for the oil marketing companies and Indian Oil in particular. We have close to 40,000 retail outlets and plan to add almost 3,000 to 4,000 ROs in the current financial year.
Can we expect a similar dividend payout to FY24 once LPG money is received? And any thoughts on LPG price decontrol?
Indian Oil is one company which has always been giving very reasonable dividends. This year, based on my profitability, I've again given a reasonable dividend to the shareholders. On LPG decontrol, I don't have a specific answer on government policy on that. But definitely, we keep engaged with the government to monitor our LPG prices.
Panipat, Koyali, and Barauni refinery expansion plans and timelines?
In Panipat we are adding 10 MMTPA (15 to 25). In Gujarat, from 13.7 to 18, adding 4.3 MMTPA. Barauni from 6 to 9 (adding 3 MMTPA). Both Panipat and Gujarat are expected to come in the fourth quarter of '25, '26. Barauni expected in first or second quarter of '26-'27. Today, all the refineries have already achieved a physical progress of more than 80%.
On inventory gain/loss — full year figures. When will the acrylic project in Gujarat commission? And PX-PTA of Paradip refinery timeline?
Quarter 4 I had inventory gain but on the full year, I still had inventory loss. Oxo Alcohol Project in Gujarat is already commissioned in the month of May. PX-PTA will be in April '26. The Paradip Petchem complex Stage 1 was March '23 (INR61,000 crores), commissioning approximately 54 months from investment approval — somewhere around '29, '30.
What is the current under recovery per cylinder? And future outlook?
It keep on changing, but today, it is around INR170 per cylinder.
CAPEX breakup between different segments for FY25 and FY26 projections. Also is Petrochemical EBITDA positive?
For FY '25-'26, targeting INR 34,000 crores. Refining and pipelines put together around INR17,000 crores — almost 50%. Marketing around INR7,000-8,000 crores. Petchem around INR3,000 crores. CGD around INR500 crores. We are definitely EBITDA positive in Petchem — EBITDA positive INR1,000 crores for '24-'25.
CGD gas sales in Q4 FY25 and FY25 and outlook for FY26?
We have a sales of almost 115 TMT of CGD for '24, '25. Out of 26 GAs already 6 GAs have become EBITDA positive. By next year, we hope that another 7 to 8 GAs will be becoming EBITDA positive. On an overall segment basis also, we will be EBITDA positive from next year.