Throughline · holding view Deep analysis Q4 FY25
IOC Indian Oil Corporation · Other Q4 FY25 · concall
Pattern: russian crude sourcing petchem

US-Iran conflict reshapes the narrative in Q4FY26: GRM disclosure paused, LPG losses surged to Rs.

3 weak · 5 clean pushback across 3 of 8 Q&A turns

Focused evidence 3 of 8

Probal Sen · ICICI Securitiesweak

What was the contribution of Russian crude in overall sourcing in Q4? What is the outlook for FY26?

We had imported 22% in '24, '25 for the full financial year. Although in the fourth quarter, it came down to almost 14%. We have again seen the increase in the Russian crude availability, and we are hopeful that this year, in '25, '26, we should be touching around 24%, 25%. On petrochemical margin environment — we can't give any specific timeline, but the cycle is expected to turn around in the next 2 to 3 years. So the petchem margins should also improve by the time our new projects come up.

Sumeet Rohra · Smartsun Capitalweak

When could we receive the LPG money? Can you talk a little bit on earnings momentum for the current year? How do you see profitability shaping up?

The time and the quantum is not known, but it all depends upon many factors, geopolitical factors, other things which keep on affecting the oil marketing companies. On profitability for FY '25-'26, we hope that it should be a good year for the oil marketing companies and Indian Oil in particular. We have close to 40,000 retail outlets and plan to add almost 3,000 to 4,000 ROs in the current financial year.

Sumeet Rohra · Smartsun Capitalweak

Can we expect a similar dividend payout to FY24 once LPG money is received? And any thoughts on LPG price decontrol?

Indian Oil is one company which has always been giving very reasonable dividends. This year, based on my profitability, I've again given a reasonable dividend to the shareholders. On LPG decontrol, I don't have a specific answer on government policy on that. But definitely, we keep engaged with the government to monitor our LPG prices.

Other Q&A (5)
Yogesh Patil · Dolat Capital

Panipat, Koyali, and Barauni refinery expansion plans and timelines?

In Panipat we are adding 10 MMTPA (15 to 25). In Gujarat, from 13.7 to 18, adding 4.3 MMTPA. Barauni from 6 to 9 (adding 3 MMTPA). Both Panipat and Gujarat are expected to come in the fourth quarter of '25, '26. Barauni expected in first or second quarter of '26-'27. Today, all the refineries have already achieved a physical progress of more than 80%.

Sabri Hazarika · Emkay Global Financial Services

On inventory gain/loss — full year figures. When will the acrylic project in Gujarat commission? And PX-PTA of Paradip refinery timeline?

Quarter 4 I had inventory gain but on the full year, I still had inventory loss. Oxo Alcohol Project in Gujarat is already commissioned in the month of May. PX-PTA will be in April '26. The Paradip Petchem complex Stage 1 was March '23 (INR61,000 crores), commissioning approximately 54 months from investment approval — somewhere around '29, '30.

Achal Shah · Ambit Capital

What is the current under recovery per cylinder? And future outlook?

It keep on changing, but today, it is around INR170 per cylinder.

Nitin Tiwari · PhillipCapital

CAPEX breakup between different segments for FY25 and FY26 projections. Also is Petrochemical EBITDA positive?

For FY '25-'26, targeting INR 34,000 crores. Refining and pipelines put together around INR17,000 crores — almost 50%. Marketing around INR7,000-8,000 crores. Petchem around INR3,000 crores. CGD around INR500 crores. We are definitely EBITDA positive in Petchem — EBITDA positive INR1,000 crores for '24-'25.

Ritik Jain · Nirmal Bang

CGD gas sales in Q4 FY25 and FY25 and outlook for FY26?

We have a sales of almost 115 TMT of CGD for '24, '25. Out of 26 GAs already 6 GAs have become EBITDA positive. By next year, we hope that another 7 to 8 GAs will be becoming EBITDA positive. On an overall segment basis also, we will be EBITDA positive from next year.

Prepared remarks (5 blocks)
Thank you. Dear investors and analysts, a very good afternoon to all of you. I take this opportunity to welcome all of you to the conference call organized by us, post announcement of the fourth quarter and annual results of the financial year '24, '25. This quarter, we have registered a profit after tax of INR<strong>7,265 crore</strong>s which was INR2,874 crores in the preceding quarter and INR4,838 crores in the corresponding quarter of financial year '24. On a year-on-year basis, the profit after tax for financial year '24, '25 is INR12,962 crores as against the profit after tax of INR39,619 crores for the financial year '23 '24. Revenue from operations during this quarter is INR217,725 crores as against INR216,649 crores in the preceding quarter of this year. I am proud to share that despite the headwinds, Indian Oil pulled off a strong operational and financial performance, registering historically highest sales volumes, historically highest pipeline throughput and one of the best distillate yield levels.
The global macroeconomic environment in financial year '24, '25 was marked by significant challenges and volatility. Persistent geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, led to supply chain disruptions and heightened energy security concerns. The average price of crude in the basket during this quarter was at $76.77 per barrel, an increase of about <strong>3.9%</strong> from the average price of the immediate preceding quarter. MS cracks has largely remained in line with the previous quarter, which was $3.11 versus $3.29 in the previous quarter. For HSD the crack spreads during this quarter was at $11.33 have remained lower than the preceding quarter, which was at $12.19.
The throughput during the quarter was 18.5 MMT, with a capacity utilization of <strong>107.1%</strong>. Our refineries have registered a GRM of $7.85 per barrel during this quarter as compared to $2.95 per barrel during the previous quarter. The normalized GRM for the quarter is $5.39 per barrel as against $6.60 per barrel in the previous quarter. For the full financial year, the normalized GRM for FY '25 is $4.53 per barrel as against $11.44 per barrel in FY '24.
The capacity utilization was about 73% during this quarter. Indian Oil's cross-country pipelines achieved throughput of 100.5 MMT during '24, '25 this year and by crossing 100 MMT milestone achieved the highest-ever recorded throughput this year. Marketing: Indian Oil achieved the highest ever sales volume of 100.29 MMT during the year in all segments. Sale of petroleum products during quarter 4 of '24, '25 is 23.19 MMT.
The sale of petrochemical products during this quarter was 0.83 MMT. For the full financial year, petchem sales were 3.236 MMT. CAPEX: During FY '24, '25, the company incurred a total capex of INR <strong>37,557 crore</strong>s. For FY '25, '26, the budgeted capex is INR33,494 crores. Borrowings: The borrowings as on 31st March '25 has increased by about INR18,000 crores on a year-on-year basis, and is at INR1,34,466 crores. With the current debt-to-equity ratio of 0.75 as on 31 March '25, Indian Oil is comfortably placed to fund the ongoing capex plans.
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