Throughline · holding view Deep analysis Q4 FY25
ADANIPOWER Adani Power Ltd · Power & infra Q4 FY25 · concall
Pattern: merchant rate outlook fy26

Q1FY27 record PAT INR4,867cr (+47% YoY).

1 deflection · 2 weak · 16 clean pushback across 3 of 19 Q&A turns

Focused evidence 3 of 19

Yash Agarwal · JM Financialweak

What is the outlook for merchant rates for this financial year, how do you see that panning out?

From March '25 onwards the demand outlook is quite positive and rates have gone quite high. We expect good rates and good demand throughout the year as the economy is growing and very less capacity is likely to get commissioned during the year, particularly on the thermal side.

Nikhil Abhyankar · UTI Mutual Fundweak

You mentioned most capex will be done through internal accruals - why exactly is this the reason? Instead of giving dividends, aren't we hampering ROEs going forward?

Returns on the assets are so attractive that operating in this environment means ROEs are very attractive - it's not ROE dilutive. We're targeting around INR120,000 crores capex over six years and if the number can be increased, leverage will come into play. Dividend is a board decision when incremental returns fall below marginal investor return - currently the company is in a comfortable position with strategic flexibility, returns on assets are attractive, and our cost per MW is much lower than competitors.

Nikhil Abhyankar · UTI Mutual Funddeflection

Can we expect significantly higher capacity addition announcement in coming times? Currently target is 30 GW - how large can it be?

It will not be appropriate to comment on that further at this stage. Once we finalize it, we will certainly come out with it in public. At this stage what we have already announced should be taken as officially announced.

Other Q&A (16)
Abhinav · ICICI Securities

Can you please update on the progress of under-construction power plants and what has been the capex incurred in FY25 and what will be our guidance for FY26?

APL has initiated development of seven 2 x 800 MW (1600 MW each) ultra supercritical thermal power plant expansion projects at Raipur, Raigarh, Kawai, Mahan, Korba and a new greenfield site at Mirzapur. BTG contracts have been awarded to BHEL with a four-year construction timeline. Raipur-2 is at 21% physical progress, Raigarh-2 at 16% and Mahan-II at 54%. We have already incurred around INR8,000 crores in FY25 and have planned INR13,307 crores towards expansion capex for FY26.

Abhinav · ICICI Securities

Is it possible to give us an update on the receivables from Bangladesh and also can you help us with revenue, EBITDA and path for the Godda power plant?

Total billing done so far is around USD 2000 million, of which USD 1207 million has been received and USD 136 million billed as LPS. On gross basis including LPS, outstanding is around USD 900 million. For Godda plant, annual EBITDA is INR4,820 crores (INR831 crores in last quarter) and annual revenue is INR8,352 crores.

Yash Agarwal · JM Financial

What was the merchant realization in the fourth quarter and the volumes and also the year-on-year number for the last year?

The merchant realization in Q4 of FY25 was INR5.03 per unit and in the same quarter last year it was INR6.17 per unit. On yearly basis for FY24-25, this realization was INR5.93 as against INR6.92 for FY23-24.

Yash Agarwal · JM Financial

What is the planned capex for FY26?

It's INR13,000 crores for expansion projects.

Yash Agarwal · JM Financial

Are all the NCLT plants commissioned or is there something more to come on stream in FY26 that we have bought?

Whatever plants we have acquired are operational, except in Lanco Amarkantak where two units are under construction and likely to be commissioned either end of this year or first half of the next year. VIPL is also a commissioned plant - once the NCLT order is pronounced, 600 MW capacity will get added.

Nikhil Nigania · Alliance Bernstein AMC

On capacity expansion - after Lanco Amarkantak, the next set of capacity would be Mahan 1,600 MW. In how much time? And after that the Raipur expansion?

Mahan will be commissioned around March '27 or April '27. After that, capacity will go up almost every six months by one unit. So broadly, after every six months, you will have one unit of 800 MW commissioned.

Nikhil Nigania · Alliance Bernstein AMC

In terms of PPA, how do we get comfort given such a huge quantum we are adding? Are we already in discussion for a potential PPA through bidding route for these assets?

24 GW equivalent coal has been allocated to various states for bidding. Already Madhya Pradesh 4,100 MW, Bihar 2,400 MW, Rajasthan 3,200 MW and Uttarakhand 1,320 MW bids are on. The Government of India has increased capacity addition target from 80 GW to 100 GW. We are hopeful that this entire capacity will get signed through PPAs.

Nikhil Nigania · Alliance Bernstein AMC

On Bangladesh - are we still supplying power to Bangladesh or due to balance payment have we stopped supplying for now?

We are supplying full power to Bangladesh and we have never stated that there was an issue at a level requiring stoppage. In the last quarter, the outstanding has gone down by around INR500 crores. The payment we are getting now is more than monthly billing, and we are hopeful old outstanding dues will also get liquidated.

Nikhil Nigania · Alliance Bernstein AMC

On the merchant side - what is the strategy given good merchant exposure to tackle very low afternoon power prices we are seeing during solar hours?

We are not keeping the entire capacity employed for the Day Ahead Market. We tie it up through bilateral contracts for one month ahead, three months ahead and sometimes six months or a year. Though categorized as merchant, it's not kept completely as floating capacity for Day Ahead Market - we get good realizations through quarterly/six-monthly tie-ups.

Mahesh Patil · ICICI Securities

On merchant power - how do you exactly define merchant sales? Does it mean all power excluding long term contracts? Does it include medium term contracts?

If power is sold in medium term (more than one year), it doesn't remain in merchant category. Merchant means not contracted for more than one year - we have bilateral contracts ranging from a week to a year. We keep only some capacity for Day Ahead and only residual power as reserve, so we don't take exposure for the entire capacity on Day Ahead Market.

Mahesh Patil · ICICI Securities

What is the status of the fuel supply agreement for the new upcoming capacity? Any tenders floated by the states regarding this fuel supply agreement?

Tenders from Madhya Pradesh 4,100 MW, Bihar 2,400 MW, Rajasthan 3,200 MW and Uttarakhand 1,320 MW are all with coal supply. Government of India has allotted coal to these states and states offer it to bidders. So whatever new tenders are coming, coal availability is the responsibility of the State - there is no concern about availability of coal.

Mahesh Patil · ICICI Securities

On Q4 numbers - other income has come down vs last Q4. Can you throw light on why LPS was higher in 9M and lower in Q4, and the overall LPS amount pending as on date?

In Q4 last year we had received a one-time customs duty refund of INR259 crores which we don't have this year. On LPS, we are receiving payment on time from all Indian DISCOMs - only Bangladesh has gross overdues where we have raised USD 136 million of LPS. They have admitted and accepted 50% of LPS, and we expect this amount soon.

Mahesh Patil · ICICI Securities

For capex in the near term, how will the funding be? Is there any debt that you are planning to raise?

We will fund most of the capex from internal accruals only. On a continuing basis, we registered more than INR21,000 crores of EBITDA last year and expect more than that this year. Anupam added that against EBITDA of about INR24,000 crores multiplied over six years, this is in excess of capex needs - we do not even need additional borrowing. Net debt to EBITDA is in the range of 1.4 to 1.5x and will improve further.

Darshan · Jefferies Group

Can you share the average PPA tariff for FY25?

For FY25, our PPA tariff was INR5.60 per unit.

Nikhil Abhyankar · UTI Mutual Fund

On commercial coal mining with total capacity of 14 million tons - how much of our coal requirement will be sourced from this?

Total capacity of all four coal mines is 14 million metric tons per annum at peak capacity - one mine in Maharashtra and three blocks in Madhya Pradesh. Khyalia added that in MW capacity terms it can cater to 3,000 MW, mainly for merchant capacity since PPA-based plants will have linkage from the state side. The MP mines near Singrauli are near the Mahan plant which has Phase 3 coming up not yet tied up under any PPA.

Nikhil Abhyankar · UTI Mutual Fund

Any ballpark number as to what will be the cost of mining?

The cost of mining is almost same or near to what coal we get from Coal India. So in terms of cost of coal there will not be much saving, but in most power plants almost 50% to 100% of the coal cost gets added in the form of transportation cost, and that would be almost entirely our savings.

Prepared remarks (4 blocks)
Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss Adani Power's Financial Results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 24-25. It has been a remarkable year for us. We have achieved significant milestones and made strategic advancements. This has strengthened our position as the largest private thermal power producer in India. At Adani Power, our objective is to provide reliable, sustainable and scalable energy solutions. Our performance for Financial Year 25 demonstrates our deep commitment to this mission. I'm happy to note that Adani Power generated <strong>102 billion</strong> units of power in FY25 and achieved 91% plant availability. We are proud to support India's economic growth by making reliable and affordable power available across all markets. During FY 25, our power sale volume increased by 20.7% to 95.9 billion units. In the fourth quarter of financial year 25, we achieved a power sales growth of 19% with sale of 26.4 billion units. This growth is due to strong power demand and higher operating capacity, following our acquisition of 2,300 MW capacity during the year, which takes our operating capacity to 17,550 MW. The power market has shown robust growth. All India power demand increased by 4.2% to 1,695 billion units for FY25. Despite a slowdown due to cold weather, demand picked up in the month of March, growing by 6.6% over March '24. This had some impact on merchant tariffs in the second half of the year. However, we have been able to achieve higher volumes in the merchant and shorter market due to our competitive advantages like a cost-efficient operating fleet, high plant availability, and low cost of fuel logistics. Looking ahead, we are excited about the upcoming opportunities. We are expanding our capacity to 30,670 MW by 2030. We are constructing three Brownfield projects of 1,600 MW each at Mahan, Raipur and Raigarh. The project activities are in full swing. We are also reviving the 1,320 MW expansion project of Korba Power Limited at Korba in Chhattisgarh. Altogether, we have given advance orders for 11.2 GW of ultra-supercritical boilers, turbines and generators to secure our supply chain. This is a strong competitive advantage for us as we will have capacity getting commissioned ahead of the competition.
We are taking a number of steps to address execution risks for our expansion plan. The Brownfield model of expansion along with a package-based contract execution model will allow us to shorten execution times and improve flexibility as well as back-to-back assurances from vendors and suppliers. As you might know, we have signed PPAs for 2.92 GW of the upcoming capacity. We are participating in various bids of the long-term thermal power PPAs from state DISCOMs. There are more than 14 GW bids at various stages currently and more than 10 GW of further bids are expected to be launched soon. These bids are being invited with coal linkage earmarked for states under SHAKTI policy clause B (iv). As on date, 24 GW of coal allocation has been made to various states for inviting the bids under this policy. This step goes a long way in mitigating the fuel risk for our upcoming power plants and there is an equitable distribution of risk between the developer and the DISCOM under the new PPA model. In addition to this, we are also entering the area of commercial coal mining for our captive use. We have won four mine auctions with a total of 14 MTPA capacity. Three of these mines are in Madhya Pradesh and one is in Maharashtra. One of the mines in MP, which is in the Dhirauli block in Singrauli, will start production of coal this year. This will help us augmenting our coal supply, sharpen our logistics advantage and develop a long-term source for open capacities. We are highly confident that thermal power will continue to play a key role in India's energy mix in the foreseeable future and Adani Power will play a key role in achieving India's energy goals in the coming years. In conclusion, I would like to thank you dedicated team, our partners and our stakeholders for their support. Together we are building a sustainable and prosperous future. Thank you and over to our CFO, Mr. Dilip.
Good afternoon, everyone. I am pleased to present the financial performance of Adani Power for the full fiscal year and fourth quarter of FY24-25. This year has been one of the robust growth and strategic advancements. For the full fiscal year, our total Continuing Revenues increased by <strong>10.8%</strong> to INR56,473 crores. Our Continuing EBITDA grew by 14.8% to INR 21,575 crores and this was due to higher revenue and lower fuel prices. The Depreciation Charge for FY25 increased to INR 4,309 crores from INR3,931 crores in FY24 and this is due to addition of new acquired assets. Interest Charge for FY25 was nearly identical at INR3,380 crores for FY25 as compared to INR3,388 crores for FY24 and this is despite the acquisition of new assets during the year. Our Continuing Profit Before Tax for FY25 increased by 21.3% to INR13,926 crores. During FY25, we had much lower one-time prior period income recognition of INR2,433 crores as compared to INR9,322 crores in FY24. As a result, the Reported Profit Before Tax was INR16,360 crores in FY25 as compared to INR20,792 crores in FY24. During FY25, we have provided for a higher tax expense of INR3,610 crores primarily due to deferred tax expense as compared to tax credit of INR37 crores in FY24. As a result, the Profit After Tax achieved in FY25 is INR12,750 crores as against INR20,829 crores in FY24. With this robust profitability and cash flows, we have ended the fiscal year 24-25 with a stronger balance sheet and sound liquidity. Now talking about the fourth quarter of FY24-25, our power sales volume for Q4 FY25 increased by 19% to 26.4 billion units. The Continuing Revenue for Q4FY25 is INR14,522 crores as compared to INR13,787 crores in Q4 of last year. APL has achieved continuing EBITDA of INR5,098 crores in Q4 FY25 as compared to INR5,273 crores in Q4 of last year. We recognized lower one-time prior period income of INR13 crores in the quarter as compared to INR94 crores in Q4 of last year.
Continuing Profit Before Tax is INR<strong>3,248 crore</strong>s in Q4 FY25 as compared to INR3,464 crores in Q4 of last year. Profit After Tax for the quarter is INR2,599 crores as compared to INR2,737 crores in Q4 of last year. Now coming to the business, we have made significant progress in advancing our business strategy. The amalgamation of Adani Power (Jharkhand) Limited. with Adani Power Limited was completed recently on 25th April. Its 1600 megawatt capacity now forms part of APL's standalone capacity. Adani Power (Jharkhand) was rated as BBB level. However, after this amalgamation, the combined facilities of Adani Power and Adani (Jharkhand) within the standalone entity of APL are now rated as AA level. Further, we received the committee of creditors' approval for our resolution plan for the acquisition of Vidarbha Industries Power Ltd., which operates at 600 MW power plant at Butibori near Nagpur. We hope to conclude this acquisition soon, which will take our install capacity to 18,150 MW. Our strong financial performance and sound capital management over the last few years have increased our financial strength tremendously. This is further evidenced by our credit ratings. APL is now rated AA, stable by four rating agencies. This reflects our strong financial position and the confidence the market has in us. Looking ahead, we remain focused on executing our expansion projects and maintaining our operational and financial discipline. We are confident in our ability to deliver superior returns to our stakeholders while continuing to invest in sustainable and innovative energy solutions. In conclusion, I would like to thank our investors and analysts for their support and confidence in Adani Power. We look forward to another year of growth and success.
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