Q1FY27 record PAT INR4,867cr (+47% YoY).
- Merchant rate outlook fy26 — answer hedged.
- Internal accrual funding vs — answer hedged.
- Capacity addition beyond 30 — question deflected.
What is the outlook for merchant rates for this financial year, how do you see that panning out?
From March '25 onwards the demand outlook is quite positive and rates have gone quite high. We expect good rates and good demand throughout the year as the economy is growing and very less capacity is likely to get commissioned during the year, particularly on the thermal side.
You mentioned most capex will be done through internal accruals - why exactly is this the reason? Instead of giving dividends, aren't we hampering ROEs going forward?
Returns on the assets are so attractive that operating in this environment means ROEs are very attractive - it's not ROE dilutive. We're targeting around INR120,000 crores capex over six years and if the number can be increased, leverage will come into play. Dividend is a board decision when incremental returns fall below marginal investor return - currently the company is in a comfortable position with strategic flexibility, returns on assets are attractive, and our cost per MW is much lower than competitors.
Can we expect significantly higher capacity addition announcement in coming times? Currently target is 30 GW - how large can it be?
It will not be appropriate to comment on that further at this stage. Once we finalize it, we will certainly come out with it in public. At this stage what we have already announced should be taken as officially announced.
Can you please update on the progress of under-construction power plants and what has been the capex incurred in FY25 and what will be our guidance for FY26?
APL has initiated development of seven 2 x 800 MW (1600 MW each) ultra supercritical thermal power plant expansion projects at Raipur, Raigarh, Kawai, Mahan, Korba and a new greenfield site at Mirzapur. BTG contracts have been awarded to BHEL with a four-year construction timeline. Raipur-2 is at 21% physical progress, Raigarh-2 at 16% and Mahan-II at 54%. We have already incurred around INR8,000 crores in FY25 and have planned INR13,307 crores towards expansion capex for FY26.
Is it possible to give us an update on the receivables from Bangladesh and also can you help us with revenue, EBITDA and path for the Godda power plant?
Total billing done so far is around USD 2000 million, of which USD 1207 million has been received and USD 136 million billed as LPS. On gross basis including LPS, outstanding is around USD 900 million. For Godda plant, annual EBITDA is INR4,820 crores (INR831 crores in last quarter) and annual revenue is INR8,352 crores.
What was the merchant realization in the fourth quarter and the volumes and also the year-on-year number for the last year?
The merchant realization in Q4 of FY25 was INR5.03 per unit and in the same quarter last year it was INR6.17 per unit. On yearly basis for FY24-25, this realization was INR5.93 as against INR6.92 for FY23-24.
What is the planned capex for FY26?
It's INR13,000 crores for expansion projects.
Are all the NCLT plants commissioned or is there something more to come on stream in FY26 that we have bought?
Whatever plants we have acquired are operational, except in Lanco Amarkantak where two units are under construction and likely to be commissioned either end of this year or first half of the next year. VIPL is also a commissioned plant - once the NCLT order is pronounced, 600 MW capacity will get added.
On capacity expansion - after Lanco Amarkantak, the next set of capacity would be Mahan 1,600 MW. In how much time? And after that the Raipur expansion?
Mahan will be commissioned around March '27 or April '27. After that, capacity will go up almost every six months by one unit. So broadly, after every six months, you will have one unit of 800 MW commissioned.
In terms of PPA, how do we get comfort given such a huge quantum we are adding? Are we already in discussion for a potential PPA through bidding route for these assets?
24 GW equivalent coal has been allocated to various states for bidding. Already Madhya Pradesh 4,100 MW, Bihar 2,400 MW, Rajasthan 3,200 MW and Uttarakhand 1,320 MW bids are on. The Government of India has increased capacity addition target from 80 GW to 100 GW. We are hopeful that this entire capacity will get signed through PPAs.
On Bangladesh - are we still supplying power to Bangladesh or due to balance payment have we stopped supplying for now?
We are supplying full power to Bangladesh and we have never stated that there was an issue at a level requiring stoppage. In the last quarter, the outstanding has gone down by around INR500 crores. The payment we are getting now is more than monthly billing, and we are hopeful old outstanding dues will also get liquidated.
On the merchant side - what is the strategy given good merchant exposure to tackle very low afternoon power prices we are seeing during solar hours?
We are not keeping the entire capacity employed for the Day Ahead Market. We tie it up through bilateral contracts for one month ahead, three months ahead and sometimes six months or a year. Though categorized as merchant, it's not kept completely as floating capacity for Day Ahead Market - we get good realizations through quarterly/six-monthly tie-ups.
On merchant power - how do you exactly define merchant sales? Does it mean all power excluding long term contracts? Does it include medium term contracts?
If power is sold in medium term (more than one year), it doesn't remain in merchant category. Merchant means not contracted for more than one year - we have bilateral contracts ranging from a week to a year. We keep only some capacity for Day Ahead and only residual power as reserve, so we don't take exposure for the entire capacity on Day Ahead Market.
What is the status of the fuel supply agreement for the new upcoming capacity? Any tenders floated by the states regarding this fuel supply agreement?
Tenders from Madhya Pradesh 4,100 MW, Bihar 2,400 MW, Rajasthan 3,200 MW and Uttarakhand 1,320 MW are all with coal supply. Government of India has allotted coal to these states and states offer it to bidders. So whatever new tenders are coming, coal availability is the responsibility of the State - there is no concern about availability of coal.
On Q4 numbers - other income has come down vs last Q4. Can you throw light on why LPS was higher in 9M and lower in Q4, and the overall LPS amount pending as on date?
In Q4 last year we had received a one-time customs duty refund of INR259 crores which we don't have this year. On LPS, we are receiving payment on time from all Indian DISCOMs - only Bangladesh has gross overdues where we have raised USD 136 million of LPS. They have admitted and accepted 50% of LPS, and we expect this amount soon.
For capex in the near term, how will the funding be? Is there any debt that you are planning to raise?
We will fund most of the capex from internal accruals only. On a continuing basis, we registered more than INR21,000 crores of EBITDA last year and expect more than that this year. Anupam added that against EBITDA of about INR24,000 crores multiplied over six years, this is in excess of capex needs - we do not even need additional borrowing. Net debt to EBITDA is in the range of 1.4 to 1.5x and will improve further.
Can you share the average PPA tariff for FY25?
For FY25, our PPA tariff was INR5.60 per unit.
On commercial coal mining with total capacity of 14 million tons - how much of our coal requirement will be sourced from this?
Total capacity of all four coal mines is 14 million metric tons per annum at peak capacity - one mine in Maharashtra and three blocks in Madhya Pradesh. Khyalia added that in MW capacity terms it can cater to 3,000 MW, mainly for merchant capacity since PPA-based plants will have linkage from the state side. The MP mines near Singrauli are near the Mahan plant which has Phase 3 coming up not yet tied up under any PPA.
Any ballpark number as to what will be the cost of mining?
The cost of mining is almost same or near to what coal we get from Coal India. So in terms of cost of coal there will not be much saving, but in most power plants almost 50% to 100% of the coal cost gets added in the form of transportation cost, and that would be almost entirely our savings.