Throughline · holding view Deep analysis Q2 FY26
CIPLA Cipla · Pharma Q2 FY26 · concall
Pattern: revenue post revlimid generic

FY26 closed 21% EBITDA matching Q3 cut.

4 deflections · 7 weak · 18 clean pushback across 11 of 29 Q&A turns

Focused evidence 11 of 29

Saion Mukherjee · Nomura Securitiesweak

On the U.S. market, how should we think about revenues now? Can you give a number for next quarter? Also any timeline for launch of generic QVAR?

Generic QVAR I can't speak about because it's in the court. On Revlimid, this quarter it was lower. A safe thing to build in would be virtually nil to very marginal Revlimid in the next quarter. From whatever we see as a consensus view emerging within analysts of what Revlimid could be, ballpark it's in that range; those estimates are not way off what Revlimid could be as an impact to the business.

Damayanti Kerai · HSBCweak

With change of guard at Cipla, any broader thought on company strategy over longer term? Any area where you are looking to increase focus?

We should allow Achin some time to make his own strategy. By and large, we are a generic business and the intention is to increase scale, size, improve competitiveness across India, U.S. and ROW markets, as well as South Africa. On the innovation side, the world is so beautiful and there's so much happening; this requires a little bit of thinking which Achin is already putting his mind to. There will be no sudden changes.

Surya Narayan Patra · PhillipCapitaldeflection

Cipla is established volume leader of domestic formulation - given semaglutide and tirzepatide volume opportunities, what kind of growth trajectory should one think about for domestic business? Strong double-digit visibility?

We're not giving any directional guidance. The market grows at about 8% to 9% in the domestic formulation business. We expect that to continue. There can be some top-up growth that may come from GLP-1. But usually, you should pencil in for industry about 8% to 9% kind of growth.

Shashank Krishnakumar · Emkay Globalweak

On the pre-approval inspection that the Kemwell facility underwent recently - which is the product that underwent a tech transfer to this site?

It's a fill-finish product. We are not giving the specifics. It's a fill-finish product. So it's not a biologic, if that's your question. It's a fill-finish part of the Kemwell facility.

Tushar Manudhane · Motilal Oswal Financial Servicesdeflection

For FY27, given respiratory asset launches in Q4 onwards and some R&D being preponed in FY26, would EBITDA margin for FY27 be higher or lower than current FY26 guidance?

Can we come back to you in the next quarter on this? Because there will be a budgeting exercise that will be done and maybe at the next quarter, more guidance could be given.

Tushar Manudhane · Motilal Oswal Financial Servicesweak

On semaglutide opportunity post approval - is it linked to traction we have on Eli Lilly product and number of players coming to market that determines whether we go ahead?

It will be linked firstly to our approval. Then secondly we will evaluate various factors, including the focus that we could put on tirzepatide. We will be doing that evaluation at that point in time.

Vishal Manchanda · Systematixdeflection

On Revlimid - since you're expecting immaterial volumes in Q3, is it fair to say for FY26 our overall Revlimid sales would be less than 50% of what it was in FY25?

We have not seen - it was an annual share that you had every year over last years since we launched. So you could do the volume at any given time during the year. That's what the trend has been. Quarter 3 anyways goes off patent in January, very close to that. So Q3 we'll not have any meaningful contribution from Revlimid into our revenue.

Vishal Manchanda · Systematixweak

On nanopaclitaxel, what share do we expect by end of this year? What's the market size?

IMS has a pretty accurate number of vials in the market. Right now our share was pretty much negligible. Only this month we are beginning to take more share. We would like to get to a position where our share is a lot more respectable. We are not giving a percentage target, but we are working towards making this a high share and sizable product for us. It has a good monthly track rate and can be a meaningful opportunity.

Vishal Manchanda · Systematixweak

Would we expect to be at $1 billion in U.S. sales next year, like we guided in previous quarter?

We are directionally there, depending on timing of the launches. The sale ends up being $50 million here or there depending on timing. When we gave $1 billion guidance, it was assuming all approvals will come through. If some approvals get delayed for any reason, it will impact revenue. But on a run rate basis, we'll be able to get there during the next year.

Kunal Randeria · Axis Capitalweak

After FDA's draft guidance on biosimilars with potentially lower entry barriers, do you intend to add more products to portfolio or spend R&D dollars on that front? Any timelines for next 2-3 years?

The answer is yes, both for our own portfolio as well as for partnerships with people who have their portfolios. Our current pipeline for U.S. is right now about 2 to 3 products of own development, and we've got a few partnerships. The internal pipeline will continue to expand as will partnerships. I can't give an exact number other than saying it will expand.

Kunal Randeria · Axis Capitaldeflection

On tirzepatide - is it an exclusive agreement? Can Lilly out-license a few more brands to other players? Does your agreement stop Lilly from giving tirzepatide to someone else?

At this point we are the only partner with a different brand name. The whole market is available for us to shape. We have other partnerships with Lilly as well. We expect to make significant difference to availability and reach of the product. We cannot comment on the specifics of the agreement. A lot of terms are confidential. But we are the only player going to shape the market along with them, with length and breadth of distribution to take care of national requirement.

Other Q&A (18)
Gautam R · Leo Capital

For your GLP-1, do you only plan for fill and finish or do you also manufacture API and other drug substances?

We don't manufacture API ourselves. We procure it and it is easily available in quantity, so it's not an issue. We may have some arrangements with CMO, et cetera, to formulate that.

Gautam R · Leo Capital

Fill and finish is through CMO, right? And what would be our capacity through them and which markets are you targeting?

Fill and finish right now is through CMO. Over a period of time, we are also looking at whether we internalize this fill and finish for certain categories of products. The Lilly partnership is all completely sourced from the Lilly franchise. Our checks revealed there's enough capacity that we have signed up for, both from the CMO network as well as from partnerships with players such as Lilly. For the non-Lilly partnership molecules, we will pretty much supply to most of our ROW markets, the U.S. market as well as Europe, India of course.

Saion Mukherjee · Nomura Securities

Can you talk about the India business? We have seen probably some slowdown in the branded business. For your tirzepatide tie-up, how are you thinking about that opportunity? Are you also planning to launch semaglutide on patent expiry?

As soon as the Cipla file is approved and we are able to supply the product, which we now think may be a little delayed beyond March, April, depending on when the approval comes for semaglutide, Cipla will evaluate its launch into the market. On tirzepatide, we are hoping to launch as soon as we can; this is a fairly material opportunity with potential in Tier 2, Tier 3 towns. On India slowdown, in the first quarter respiratory was a very large share with not much acute season; the business is recovering strongly in quarter 2, and in quarter 3 we should be at or higher than the India market growth rate.

Damayanti Kerai · HSBC

On tirzepatide deal with Eli Lilly, can you discuss the arrangement? Will you be booking the revenue or how will partners share the economy?

We will be launching a brand called Yurpeak, which is exclusive to Cipla, and we have nationwide distribution rights and the full rights to promote and distribute the product in India. It's like any of our other partnerships, product will be supplied by Lilly and marketed by Cipla. The product is supplied to us at a price as material cost, and whatever margin arrangement reflects in gross margin; marketing cost is ours.

Damayanti Kerai · HSBC

On the revised EBITDA margin guidance, it's a wide range. Do you anticipate higher R&D spend and other spend in second half contributing to this wider guidance?

In the first half you had Revlimid benefit which won't be there in the second half. Second reason is R&D where some programs we picked up will have expenses pick up. Quarter 3 will be a season quarter for respi, base business should grow YoY. But quarter 4 is usually the lowest in terms of both sales and margin historically. Based on these factors we're suggesting a range; how Yurpeak shapes up will also play in the mix.

Neha Manpuria · Bank of America

On the R&D guidance, you mentioned 500 basis points in opening comments. I didn't quite catch what you mentioned in terms of spend being higher?

The R&D spend planned for the year as against estimating now for the entire year - the spend will be about 0.5% higher. I may have said 500 basis points, I meant 50 basis points, 0.5% of revenue higher basically.

Neha Manpuria · Bank of America

What would be the accelerated filings - in which specific areas? Is this same U.S. generic and respiratory or biosimilars?

In the similar areas as we've been working on, which is basically complex generics, mainly in those areas and respi, oligo, peptides - those are the areas that we are working on and what we've added this year.

Neha Manpuria · Bank of America

On the India business, how do we ensure that Cipla can go back to growing in line with the market, particularly on the branded business? Is the Eli Lilly bit what gives you confidence on growing higher than market?

Our business has very good diversification. There are elements with leadership which have been seasonality dependent on acute and respiratory. But we're building strong franchise on diabetes, cardio, urology - the depth is solid. Across these segments we are growing faster than market already. Over 3-4 years we have been ahead of the market. We are confident in coming quarters we'll deliver market-beating growth at overall level - even without the Eli Lilly in-licensing.

Surya Narayan Patra · PhillipCapital

On Eli Lilly tirzepatide first-mover advantage in India - what is the likely scenario once genericization of semaglutide happens in India? What kind of opportunity can be mutualized?

Our endeavor is to go for products which bring superior science. Even today between doctors, tirzepatide has a distinct set of users; semaglutide will be used for many others - both molecules will stand on their own. Tirzepatide brings strong superior science. Semaglutide will be a large market shared by many people. Whereas our version of tirzepatide is a strong market with strong science; between us and Lilly there will be enough muscle to take this to market and create the opportunity.

Surya Narayan Patra · PhillipCapital

On gross margin sequentially - we have seen 160-170 bps decline despite strong U.S. sales. Is it because of price cuts in Revlimid or something else?

One reason is lena, there is some price decline witnessed in quarter 2. The other smaller reason is that the tender business in Africa had picked up, and generally it tends to be not evenly spread out. Third, the R&D material that you buy also sits at material costs - when you buy that, it impacts gross margin. There's no core issue; core is intact in terms of gross margin.

Shashank Krishnakumar · Emkay Global

On capacity expansion at Fall River facility for respiratory - how would the economics look manufacturing in U.S. versus India?

The U.S. is going to be more expensive compared to India. The flip side is there's no freight. Even then, total costs in the U.S. are expensive compared to India. It's not 100% more expensive, neither is it the same cost - depends on the type of product. Capex is the same; material costs are similar; running cost of power is similar. The key difference is labor cost. These respi plants are also fairly automated.

Shashank Krishnakumar · Emkay Global

Do you still look to pursue both the Redihaler and the QVAR or would it just be one of these two when you come to market?

Both are independent files and both are for us opportunities that we can onset.

Tushar Manudhane · Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Given Q2 had much lower contribution from generic Revlimid and we're at 25% EBITDA margin, with acute seasonality improving and respiratory launches in Q4 - do you think we'll be lower in EBITDA margin compared to Q2 even after considering the higher R&D spend?

The guidance range assumed a certain percentage of R&D and R&D is ramping up in second half even further compared to quarter 1. We've identified opportunities compelling to go after from a timing perspective. The 0.5% impact is what's coming in. If I take away the R&D we're spending, the margin is essentially the same range. For full year basis, we factored in what Revlimid could do, and we are pretty close to that aspect.

Tushar Manudhane · Motilal Oswal Financial Services

On Eli Lilly deal extension to South Africa or Africa market - was there any scope?

That deal has already struck out there in South Africa in the last year itself, where Lilly has partnered with another player for Mounjaro and Novo Nordisk has launched on its own out there, the ozempic franchise.

Bino Pathiparampil · Elara Capital

On Abraxane launch, how is the product picking up? Is it in line with expectations in terms of market share?

Not quite. We are slightly behind where we wanted to be on the product. Part of the reason was that we found the market had extra stock when we launched. Since the last 2-3 months, the situation has changed; we are beginning to pick up share now. Initially when we launched the market was oversupplied. It's a lot better now.

Bino Pathiparampil · Elara Capital

On tirzepatide, will you add specific sales force or is existing diabetes sales force enough? And if you launch semaglutide, won't sales force be confused?

We've added field force already, recruited and trained over the past 3 to 4 months. When we do semaglutide, the field force will be a different field force - it's not going to carry both products in the same field force. The tirzepatide field force is exclusively for tirzepatide and other products. Sema will be sold by a different division.

Bino Pathiparampil · Elara Capital

Could you please repeat the EBITDA margin guidance for FY26?

For the full year is 22.75% to 24%. Earlier it was 23.5% to 24.5%.

Vishal Manchanda · Systematix

On lanreotide - will we be around 35% again or stay at current levels? Any competition coming in near term?

Lanreotide will continue to go up. As more capacity comes online, we are seeing the effect of capacity unlock and it will continue to go up in scale. Publicly there is information of other players who have filed; depending on their timing, calibration will be done. Even if Cipla reaches 30% and the innovator is 70%, there's a sizable share that can be taken.

Prepared remarks (3 blocks)
Umang Vohra introduced Achin Gupta, who will take over as the designated CEO effective the 1st of January and assume full responsibilities from the 1st of April as the CEO and MD of the organization. This quarter, Cipla delivered an all-time high quarterly revenue of INR<strong>7,589 crore</strong>s, supported by a robust EBITDA margin of 25%. Performance was powered by contributions across all priority markets of One-India, U.S. Generics, One Africa and EMEU. The One-India business delivered an improving growth trend with 7% year-on-year increase. Key therapies grew at strong double-digit growth: anti-diabetes 10%, cardiac 13%, urology 17% and dermatology 18% as per IQVIA MAT September '25. Overall chronic mix strengthened to 61.8% year-on-year. Foracort ranked the number one brand in IPM. Four new brands were added to the INR100 crores plus club, taking the total to 29. Cipla continues to be the largest pharma company and the only player with 2 billion plus unit sales in IPM. Triple combo products Voltido Trio Ciphaler and Foracort G are gaining traction. The company entered the obesity care segment with the launch of Yurpeak (tirzepatide) in partnership with Eli Lilly. Recent launches include Doloneuron, Zolsoma, XTIKTR, with upcoming launches Elbicip, Aprela, Rizontem and Tedispan. Cipla welcomes the government's progressive GST reforms; the GST rate transition led to a brief disruption resolved within the quarter.
Trade generics business delivered strong double-digit growth with 6 new launches. Consumer Health business continued upward trajectory with Nicotex, Omnigel and Cipladine. In North America, delivered quarterly revenue of <strong>$233 million</strong>, with U.S. albuterol MDI market share rising to 22%; over 50 million inhalers supplied since launch. Lanreotide market share rose to 22% as per MAT August '25. Launched filgrastim, the first biosimilar in U.S. market. Received generic drug approval for glucagon and tentative approval for liraglutide. In Q3 FY26, generic Revlimid is expected to have very small contribution; base business excluding generic Revlimid expected to continue growth trajectory. By calendar year '26, expect launch of four major respiratory assets including generic Advair in Q4 '26 and three peptide assets including liraglutide. One Africa business recorded 5% YoY growth in USD terms with South Africa growing 6% in ZAR terms. EMEU delivered strongest quarterly revenue at USD 110 million, 15% YoY growth. The U.S. FDA inspection at Bommasandra, Bengaluru qualified as VAI; Indore facility reinspection expected this year or early next.
- Quarterly revenue: INR <strong>7,589 crore</strong>s, 8% Y-o-Y growth (highest ever) - EBITDA margin (excluding other income): 25% - Reported gross margin after material cost: 67%, largely on account of product mix and R&D materials purchased - Total expenses: INR 3,197 crores, 11% increase over previous year (driven by R&D investments including litigation costs and elevated marketing spend) - R&D investment: INR 539 crores, 7.1% of revenue; trending higher driven by additional select opportunities and accelerated filings (~50 bps higher than planned) - Profit after tax: INR 1,351 crores, 17.8% of sales - Effective tax rate: 27% - Debt on balance sheet (including lease liability): INR 467 crores - Net cash balance: INR 9,901 crores after adjusting for cash outflow over INR 400 crores and dividend payout - Revised FY26 EBITDA margin guidance: 22.75% to 24% (earlier 23.5% to 24.5%); excludes Yurpeak business plan - North America quarterly revenue: $233 million - EMEU quarterly revenue: USD 110 million (15% YoY growth)
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