FY26 closed 21% EBITDA matching Q3 cut.
- Bridge 780m fy26 base — answer hedged.
- Lanreotide outlook fy27 beyond — answer hedged.
- Fy27 cost rationalization scope — answer hedged.
My first question is on the U.S. revenue guidance, about $1 billion by the end of this year. And you have mentioned that in your guidance for '27, you have not factored Lanreotide. So that means in your expectation for FY '26, you are not considering Lanreotide. And obviously, this Lenalidomide is not there. So if we deduct these two product revenue from the $780 million annualized revenue of FY '26 for U.S. — the number you're talking about is almost double the size of the base U.S. business of FY '26. So what is the kind of bridge?
Yes. So the guidance, I just wanted to clarify is a $1 billion run rate by the end of the year. We are not guiding for $1 billion revenue during the year, right? And the reason for that is because a lot of this is contingent on pipeline maturing. So we have 1 approval already in hand. As we mentioned, there are 3 other respiratory approvals. There's one big peptide approval, and there are 3 other products which have already got approved in the year, smaller assets, et cetera. So as these products get approved, our run rate will keep improving, and we will get to that $1 billion by the end of FY '27.
Since you have mentioned that Lanreotide, you have not factored while guiding the margin for the year. So what is the outlook that we are giving for Lanreotide for this year and for the subsequent period given the kind of total disruption that we are currently seeing for that molecule?
Yes. So for Lanreotide, we have the partner who is working on the remediation efforts. And that's in full swing, and we are helping them as much as possible on navigating that part. So I think maybe by next quarter, we'll have closer visibility on their exact remediation time lines, which will also include a reinspection from the FDA. So that we can come back and guide after a quarter. But in parallel, we have also identified alternate supplier for this -- alternate manufacturing site, which will be based out of the U.S. So the objective is to be able to file by early next year -- next calendar year or Q4 of this financial year. That gives us a two-pronged approach to overcome this.
Is there any scope of rationalization of the cost on the cost front because if the revenue is likely to slide on the U.S. front, are we likely to see any reduction in any cost line item for FY '27?
So look, there are two parts talking on a number of productivity enhancement measures, which will help us optimize the cost, including some of the tech-related transformation that we spoke about. But the short term, there are disruptions because of the war situation on sourcing side. So right now, we're having visibility to what we've seen so far. But if it prolongs, that's something that is still yet to be quantified. But to answer your question on basic efficiencies and productivity, yes, we are working on that, and it will materialize as we go through during the year. There's one more point which I think you should keep in mind is we had invested in our North America facilities for these complex products. And so far, the cost has been there in the last quarter or 2, but the revenues have not commensurately come.
For Respiratory and Oligo products, per ANDA R&D spend broad number you would like to call out?
I think that's very case specific. So it's difficult to call out an average number. We are guiding towards 7%-ish on R&D spend as a percentage of sales. And we're also going to -- I think in the mix, the mix will also change slightly in the coming year because, as I said, 40 to 50 filings with Respiratory with First-to-Files and certain number of peptides, et cetera. So hard to put a metric on per filing because the nature of that filing changes a little bit.
On gross margin trends — given your product pipeline is becoming more complex generics heavy, how should we look at your gross margins in the near term or medium term?
Yes. See, it's a large mixed bag in the gross margin. So there are many factors that go into it. I think the way I look at it is that, of course, Lenalidomide was a high margin up. But most of our Respi assets that are coming are mostly in-house products. So in-house products will always give you a higher end of the margin more than the company average that you're seeing today. So it will only accrete to your company gross margin. But at the same time, some of the peptides that we're talking about in Oligo — they are partnered products. So while the gross margin could be high out there, but there is also a profit share as a royalty that we end up paying. In India, we are moving more and more towards chronic. So chronic will definitely come with 5% to 10% better gross margin.
This quarter's U.S. revenue is around $620 million; you're talking about $1 billion exit. So that's $380 million of incremental revenue. Just wanted to understand the skewness of this $380 million — will it be skewed towards one or two products or can there be equitable distribution among 6, 7 products?
So Nikhil, in terms of annualized revenues from these products, I think a couple of them, we are expecting $100 million plus annualized opportunities, right? And the other 2 are also significant, right? So -- and then there's -- so this is respiratory and then there's a peptide asset, which is also big. So we are expecting big contributions. I think the reason we are not able to give a quarter-wise kind of breakup or a product-wise breakup is because the timing of launch, if it moves 1 or 2 months, that affects the full year number. But run rate-wise, assuming we have these launches, we will be able to cross that run rate by the end of the year. So there are 2, 3 big opportunities and a couple of medium-sized opportunities.
On the India business, can you quantify the contribution from your peak in 4Q? I imagine it's only 4Q where your peak would have contributed, not in 3Q, right?
Yes, it wasn't that large because real sales started happening in Jan, so Jan, Feb, March. We've seen growth internally in secondaries. April also, we saw an improvement over March on secondaries. But yes, I mean, it's not out of the 15% overall One India we've reported, it's not going to be a meaningful percentage.
The cash on balance sheet is pretty large now. So are we even thinking about high dividend payout? What are your thoughts on the cash that you have on your books now?
So see, there are opportunities to deploy. We need to be selective. We -- when we look at it as in absolute rupee terms, it looks high. But if you were to chase 1 or 2 large transactions, meaningful transactions, this is not a very high amount of cash. So I don't think we are worried about the cash on our books. It gives us flexibility and it gives us opportunities to look at options which can help the future growth of the organization.
Given 2H margins to be better than 1H and new launches in U.S., is it fair to understand that F '28 margins can be materially different or better than F '27?
I think that would be our target, right? So we will obviously work towards continue to improve our targeted margin. To be fair, I think it should 20 plus is something that we should anyway sustain going forward.
Last question on one product Nintedanib. So how material this product can be? Is it a very short-term opportunity for 2, 3 months or it can last throughout this year?
It's not a very large product, but we've got good market share. So it's doing well for us. We've had a few other launches as well already in the year. But these are not -- I would not call them out separately. They're not of that.
During the quarter, did we kind of book any shelf stock adjustment for Revlimid?
No. I think we had shared this in the last quarter as well. We did not have any SSA adjustments.
On generic Ventolin launch that you are expected to do next month. So just wanted to understand if the Innovator is supposed to launch a green version of Ventolin sometime by third quarter of this financial year. So hypothetically, if the innovator is able to replace all of their Ventolin product with the new version, would that impact Cipla?
Generic to the existing Ventolin. The switching to another variant is -- I think that will be a process, which is not an automatic process under the U.S. law at this point of time. So we do not anticipate any near-term impact of that change as and when the transition starts to happen.
If you could update on the respiratory pipeline, the key assets, Advair, Symbicort, Qvar, Flovent?
So I think as we had guided, we were expecting four approvals this year. Ventolin has already got approved. We are having different goal dates for different products. So during the year, we are expecting Advair, Symbicort and then one other asset to get approved. So this will happen during, I think H1 and 1 is H2 as well.
What is holding back Advair for so long?
I think your question is probably more historic. If you recall, we had OAI at our Indore facility. So we had to tech transfer to the U.S., which caused the delay. But now we are ready with everything. So it's just a matter of receiving the approval. Sorry just to complete went through a pre-approval inspection on our U.S. facility for this particular product.
Do you expect to see any benefit out of the EU FDA for your respiratory portfolio because you source a lot of the basic devices from Europe?
At this point, we are not expecting any meaningful impact of that. I think it's more business as usual at this point in time. (Ashish added: It remains the same. So there is no benefit as such. And in EU, we are already selling Respiratory devices, which are in-house. So there's no significant benefit that we see coming from EU FDA. We get some raw materials from there, especially on the devices side, but there's no any such benefit that we have out there.)
Just wanted to understand the specific initiatives around AI, which you mentioned. If you could share any specific initiatives that you've taken and anything -- any other pilot initiatives that you see scaling up in future?
Yes. So AI is a broad-based implementation that we are targeting, which will focus across multiple functions. And the difference between what used to happen in the past versus now is we are focusing on end-to-end processes versus small limited use cases. So this will be -- we have implementations across quality, regulatory, corporate functions and a lot of the R&D-related use cases as well. So the idea is to use it in a way that helps obviously faster and better decision-making, but also ultimately gives us productivity benefits.
On the biosimilars front, I just wanted to understand in terms of your strategy for biosimilars, are you looking at in-licensing? Or are you looking at your own development? And what sort of a pipeline and time line are you looking at for that, both from a U.S. and EU perspective? And is that sort of accelerated given the new FDA draft guidelines?
Yes. So we have predominantly an in-house strategy where we have 2 assets currently under development for developed markets. One of them is already under clinical trial under an IND of U.S. We will be adding 1 to 2 assets each year, which will then, therefore, start resulting into a pipeline of 6 to 8 in-house assets over the next 5 to 8 years. On top of that, we are considering a limited amount of in-licensing where there are near-term opportunities that are not within our in-house portfolio.
So that means in the second half, we will see a run rate of almost like $100 million incremental revenue versus the quarterly run rate in the first half?
Yes.
On Ventolin — with another variant of Albuterol getting approved, do you find any changes to the market dynamic in terms of pricing, competition or scope in Albuterol, whether it will lead to incremental business or not since it is a variant of Albuterol only and prescription would be based on Albuterol HFA?
No. These are different products because they get substituted to the different innovator products. So it's a different NDC, different market. And we have CGT on the generic Ventolin. So we will actually be exclusive for a 6-month period. And we expect a significant uptick. There is no cannibalization that will happen on the other variant, which is a generic to another variant of same molecule. So we're more likely to take the share from the existing Ventolin suppliers rather than going from the other franchise.
Just on the R&D — connecting R&D spend overall almost INR 2,000 crores and very few ANDAs being filed. So is it that the R&D spend for ANDA is significantly higher maybe for FY '26, '25 compared to the earlier philosophy of R&D spend for ANDA?
Yes. Actually, we have gone up products, including some First-to-Files, which are on Oligonucleotide side as well. So we've gone into more respiratory, more peptide and more Oligo, which is resulting in higher spend per filing. (Ashish added: And some of these also involve litigation cost as well. So that also leads to higher R&D spend, which has got everything in that R&D spend that you see, both API cost, your R&D that you buy, litigation, et cetera, et cetera. And of course, some of these Oligonucleotide, et cetera, we go outside to CRO, CMOs as well.)
The Albuterol market share has sort of reduced quarter-over-quarter — moved from 22% back to 19.5%. Anything to read through?
No. I think it's hardly a reduction that you see out there of 0.4% or so that we've seen. So I think 19% to 20% or rather 19.5% to 20% is something that you should pencil in -- we are ranked out there. And if the supply was -- if you could supply more, then we could -- there's a potential to increase the share as well.
On the R&D part — is this Indore regulatory issue also one of the reasons for delay in filing because of the regulatory issue at Indore site or the Indore site classification has got nothing to do with the filing of the assets? I was referring to prospective filing, where R&D spend is incurred but because of classification at Indore, the acceptance of filing by U.S. FDA, is there that kind of delay also happening?
No. So now we have derisked out of Indore. So our assets are filed from U.S. And one of the assets we are doing from Goa because Goa is here. Same likewise for potential filings also, we are focusing more on Goa and U.S. sites. And Indore, I think we will accelerate as and when -- as soon as it clears.
On Ventolin — will the pickup be gradual or can we have a sizable business in 2-3 quarters timeline? And capacity won't be the constraint?
Yes. So you will see towards second half a ramp-up happening in generic Ventolin. Though we will launch it within the quarter 1 and quarter 1, yes, but the ramp-up will happen in half 2. No. We have U.S. facility for it. Not a problem at all on the devices side.
On your U.S. exit guidance of $1 billion in FY '27 — what kind of visibility you have on these products that gives you confidence you can receive approval this year? And for some of the bigger assets, what kind of risk mitigation strategies have you already implemented?
No, see I think it's -- in terms of confidence in each of these assets, we are seeing some developments happening. Like for example, in Advair, now you've had a PAI that has happened. Okay. Ventolin where we were expecting around the same time we've got the approval. In certain other assets also, there is an ongoing discussion readiness that is there. Of course, we can't anticipate when the approval will come through. But some of them, we are aware of the goal date, et cetera. Well for quarter 3, quarter 4 ramp-up to happen to $1 billion kind of a run rate. And that's what we have envisaged in our business plan. And from facility point of view, all these facilities are also derisked.
When you say facilities issues are derisked, so most of these filings are filed from 2 sites, say from India and from U.S.?
No, that won't be the case. Right now, these are filed from U.S. or from Goa, you will have 1 or 2 assets filed. But -- and these are respiratories that I'm talking about. The peptide is with a partner site outside. So we don't anticipate -- that we don't anticipate any risk in the facility. Goa has recently got inspected as well. There are 2 observations we are waiting -- we have responded to those observations. We are waiting for the classification.
On India business — you ended at 9% growth for the segment. So when we look ahead, say '27, '28, do you think you can outpace IPM growth in next 1-2 years or it might take slightly longer because market growth has also improved?
Yes. So we are confident that we'll be able to deliver a strong double-digit growth as well as a market beating growth in FY '27, '28. And we've been seeing that consistent trend over the last couple of quarters.
When you're saying that you will be at a $1 billion exit run rate, does it include Lanreotide or it doesn't include any contribution from Lanreotide?
At the moment, we've left that out of this guidance. So that will be an upside to plan if we can successfully get back in the market before that.
What kind of a tail are we looking at in these plus $100 million opportunities? Can they continue for a couple of years, '28 and '29 or in '28 onwards we can see some bit of erosion starting to happen?
So see, these are not like the 6-month exclusivity kind of opportunities. So even if competition enters, they will taper off slowly, right? So they are more like the way to look at it is what you saw in our Albuterol or what you saw in our Lanreotide prior to supply disruption issues. These are more steady opportunities. So where we have to manage some level of price erosion, but not a cliff kind of scenario, right? So these are steady opportunities.
Is there any M&A component or in-licensing component that I might have missed, which is also leading to this double-digit growth in 4Q?
Yes, we had in-licensing of some Pfizer products. We had a small acquisition of a business called Inzpera. Yes. So base will still be double digit.
Over the next 2, 3 years, how should we think about your capital deployment, both organically or inorganically?
Yes. So look, I think we are preparing for a solid growth over the next 5 years and beyond. And for that, I think the number 1 deployment is going to be on R&D side. So we have plans to accelerate R&D pipeline. So Respiratory assets, we have some under approval, more which we are filing. Complex products, which we outlined was peptides, other differentiated products. But also we're going to step up on biosimilar side, where we would want to do roughly 6 to 8 internally. And if we find a couple of good opportunities, we can supplement through inorganic as well, so that will consume some capital. Then we have capex, which we have increased steadily over the last 3 years.
Anything in India or emerging markets, more in branded generic space you think Cipla would be looking at or this would be largely organically built?
So India, we've actually put a slide in the investor deck on the partnerships we've done. Acquisition, a large acquisition in India is a little difficult for us because we are a number 2, number 3 player. We're actually number 1 by volume. So whenever we start looking at some of these, there is a significant overlap that we have to account for. So emerging markets Europe remains a very good opportunity for us. We're looking at that.
On India business — we grew double digit in trade generic and consumer healthcare. So is it fair that the branded generic business has actually been pretty muted for the entire year? What gives us confidence we'll be able to beat India growth in the next year?
Yes. So I think we mentioned that all the 3 segments of the business have done really well in -- especially Q3 and Q4. Q1, we had a muted quarter on the branded Rx business. But that is behind us now, right? There were reasons related to seasonality, et cetera, but we've not seen those similar reasons as we started this particular financial year. So -- with the products we have and the strategies that are there, we are quite confident, and we've seen that trend now over at least 2 quarters.
Given that we've had a fairly low base on seasonality, ideally even a normal season should give you that tailwind for India growth this year, right?
Yes. So that's why we're saying we are confident about the double-digit growth because the seasonal patterns don't happen too many years in a row, right? So I think the base was low for last year on some of these acute things, but also the chronic portion, particularly diabetes, cardiology has grown significantly. So we have also diversified beyond that seasonality dependent portfolio.
On the margin guidance of 18.5% to 20% — given that a lot of the U.S. growth will be second half weighted, is it fair to assume that in the second half our margins could be north of 20% range and therefore the average that you've given?
Yes. So that's exactly what I had mentioned initially that in 18.5% to 20% that we're guiding, it will be more in the favor of H2 where you will have better than average and first 2 quarters where we don't have the benefit of new launches, we will see a lower margin than the average that we're giving. So yes, that's the trend that you will see.
On EBITDA margin guidance — given the outlook you provided for U.S. business, $1 billion plus run rate and India double-digit growth in FY '27, this 18.5% to 20% appears a bit conservative. Have you baked in significant impact of input cost increase or impact of geopolitical situation?
See, I think we have made a lot of investment in the last 1 or 2 years, both on people as well as on R&D. And both these costs is going to sustain. People costs will continue to be high because we've made manufacturing facilities and to add the field force etcetera. I think more or less that investment phase is coming to an end. But of course, that people cost is now sitting with us and revenue of that will start coming in, like Achin had said later with the new launches coming in. R&D also, while it is discretionary and in hand, but still will continue to be at about 6% to 7%, but more biased towards 7% because we are increasing the number of programs, etcetera. So therefore, I think 18.5% to 20% is a fair margin to assume. We are taking in more moderate kind of war risk and we are hoping that it's temporary and not really going to sustain.