Throughline · holding view Deep analysis Q3 FY26
CIPLA Cipla · Pharma Q3 FY26 · concall
Pattern: forward sales trajectory under

FY26 closed 21% EBITDA matching Q3 cut.

5 deflections · 9 weak · 31 clean pushback across 14 of 45 Q&A turns

Focused evidence 14 of 45

Tushar Manudhane · Motilal Oswal Financial Servicesweak

Given the disruption, will US sales get further lower with respect to Lanreotide reduction in upcoming quarters?

On account of Lanreotide, depending on how that situation evolves, the Lanreotide sales can get further impacted. We are not commenting on the other part of US as of now.

Kunal Dhamesha · Macquarieweak

Removing Lenalidomide and Lanreotide, are we at a pre-Revlimid era $125-$130 million quarterly run rate for the US?

No, that assessment is not entirely correct in arriving at the base because we cannot share the numbers of Lenalidomide. Directionally, Achin added that Lenalidomide is minimal in that base and very significant launches are coming up. The direction of travel of the business will be to grow on the back of all products including launches that have already happened this year.

Kunal Dhamesha · Macquarieweak

Beyond generic Advair, can you provide color on the three respiratory assets including TAM and competitive landscape?

We have mentioned four respiratory assets. One is generic Advair. There are two other fairly large material opportunities where we believe we have a full generic opportunity which would stay like that for a certain period of time. Awaiting the approvals which will materially create revenue and profitability impact.

Kunal Dhamesha · Macquariedeflection

Is the large opportunity hundreds of millions, and one is Symbicort, one is Advair - what about the remaining two?

For competitive reasons, it is hard to comment on that, but these are fairly large.

Neha M. · Bank of Americaweak

On the gross margin impact from APIs for R&D, could you quantify how much that would be and should we assume it normalizes from next quarter?

Without giving a risk, your R&D expenses are about 7% of revenue. Part of that 7% sits as material that you procure, both R&D and API. We did that for certain molecules including oligonucleotides. It is not a regular consistent quarter phenomenon - it can be lumpy, so you may not have it coming back in Quarter 4.

Neha M. · Bank of Americadeflection

How should we think about defending the 21% margin guided this year into next year when Revlimid fully goes away?

We are not currently guiding for FY'27 margin because we have not completed our annual operating plan for the year, which needs to go to the Board. FY'26 we have guided to land at about 21%. Just one quarter left and we have to do better YOY to achieve that. We do not have any Revlimid in Q4.

Surya Narayan Patra · PhillipCapitalweak

On margin side, with Lenalidomide gone next year, Lanreotide disruption in H1, and continued R&D spends - directionally is overall margin below 20%?

Lena is a planned dip in sales, which was known. In preparation, we have been working on the pipeline which is now looking closer. As we get those approvals, we will share. India, EMEU and South Africa continue to grow. Lanreotide is a temporary issue and Lenalidomide was a planned going away for which the pipeline comes into play.

Surya Narayan Patra · PhillipCapitaldeflection

Excluding Lanreotide impact, will profitability be better than pre-Lenalidomide scenario?

Best for us to answer this question will be when we have rolled up our annual plan. We will give you a much better visibility after that.

Tushar Manudhane · Motilal Oswal Financial Servicesweak

On the 0-6 month two big respiratory launches, can you give a combined market size and any organic generics already there?

Two of those opportunities are quite large and we expect to be the sole generic in those for a substantial period of time. The third one in that bucket is generic Advair which already has competition.

Chirag Dagli · DSP Asset Managersdeflection

On Q-on-Q US business dip of $65 million, should we extrapolate this to annualize Lenalidomide sales in the base?

Unfortunately we cannot guide yet because the agreement is surviving.

Chirag Dagli · DSP Asset Managersweak

Will the US run rate be materially different in coming quarters?

Future guidance on US, let Lanreotide stabilize. There will be good opportunity for us to give that guidance.

Sidharth Negandhi · Chanakya Wealth Creationweak

On peptide launches in emerging markets where we are seeing loss of exclusivity, can you give some color?

Liraglutide we already launched and have other products in pipeline. Difficult to call out individual assets because quantum is not as large as US, but we are looking at same level of complexity and differentiation in EM portfolio. Sometimes more differentiated assets registered in branded markets are not available for generic US market. Focus is on building EM, EU and South Africa frontends.

Shrikant Akolkar · Nuvamadeflection

Does the Eli Lilly agreement stop us from entering Semaglutide?

We cannot share the specifics of that, but as I said, we can see how the market shapes up. If we see an opportunity to play in that market, we can take that call over time.

Shrikant Akolkar · Nuvamaweak

Do we have generic Spiriva in development now or in future?

That depends on which market you're talking about. For some part of the world we have it. For some part of the world we can't disclose because it's competitive.

Other Q&A (31)
Tushar Manudhane · Motilal Oswal Financial Services

On Q3 gross profit and gross margin, even with the Revlimid impact, is there further anything in raw material related to Lanreotide dragging gross profit lower compared to earlier quarter outside Revlimid?

Revlimid has a significant impact sitting in the gross margin. Apart from that, this quarter we purchased certain R&Ds and APIs for our R&D expenditure, which led to a significant explanation for the difference. Other than that, product mix led to small dilution as well, but not a significant amount.

Tushar Manudhane · Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Did Lanreotide have any impact on the raw material side, or were there inventory or related expense adjustments?

No, there has been no adjustment in the inventory on account of Lanreotide. Whatever we have sold in this quarter of Lanreotide, a normal material cost against that is what is booked.

Kunal Dhamesha · Macquarie

Of the $66 million sequential decline in US sales, how much can be attributed to Revlimid versus Lanreotide?

A significant portion comes from Revlimid, a major portion. There is a small portion that comes on account of Lanreotide as well. Important to note is that, against what we had planned in Lanreotide, there is lower achieved because of this disruption.

Neha M. · Bank of America

On the peptide monetization talked about in '27, none of these are from the partner facility that has been impacted, right?

No, none of them is coming from Pharmathen.

Damayanti Kerai · HSBC

On expected FY'27 US launches - four peptides and four regulatory assets - what comfort and visibility do you have, are there any URLs or roadblocks?

The respiratory assets are progressing well through their assessments and we have been preparing for the launch operations. We are quite confident about those upcoming launches. Likewise for peptide assets, because these are not from the site with the partner pharmacies issue, we do not have any reasons to suspect any issues. Generic Victoza approval is already received.

Damayanti Kerai · HSBC

All peptide assets are from CMO site and respiratory 3 of 4 will come from US and one from India plant - is that correct?

Yes, that is right. The peptide assets are from partner sites and respiratory are from US sites as well as India sites.

Damayanti Kerai · HSBC

On the Rs. 1,100 crores paid for perpetual rights to Galvus, where are these costs sitting in the financials?

That is sitting in intangibles in your capital advance in the financial statement, the 1,100 that we have paid. Nothing is on the P&L.

Surya Narayan Patra · PhillipCapital

On Lanreotide, did we see any impact of supply disruption in this quarter or is the development in Q4?

In case of Lanreotide, the inspection took place in November and soon after that they stopped the production. So in December we had no production. There was some impact in comparison to the previous quarter. But as far as our plan, the impact is much larger.

Surya Narayan Patra · PhillipCapital

On Yurpeak tirzepatide launch, what is the progress and adoption levels beyond cities, and what scenario post Semaglutide commercialization?

We have all-India marketing rights for Yurpeak with focus outside metros. Good traction in places exposed to the drug and new prescriber cities. Tirzepatide has dual GLP and GIP action making it a preferred option. As Sema genericizes, it might open options at different price point growing the market rather than eating into each other.

Bino Pathiparampil · Elara Capital

Any update on Abraxane in the market?

Our launch coincided with other launches as well, so it has become a competitive market. As of now, we are inching up our market share. Currently it is single digit. We hope to increase that.

Bino Pathiparampil · Elara Capital

Looking at '22 margins around 21% before Lenalidomide, how has that fallen to 17.5%-18% now even with little Revlimid?

R&D was elevated - used to be 5-5.5% in past, now about 7% of sales, straight away 1.5-2% dilution. In the last 1-2 years we have been investing on organic growth, new launches and derisking facilities, all that cost has come into P&L. As they yield revenue, we should normalize back to a higher number. The 17.7% is 1.5-2% off our expectation for the same reasons.

Bino Pathiparampil · Elara Capital

Is the Rs. 1,100 crores Novartis payment related to the April 2023 deal, and any future payments under Pfizer or Lilly deals?

Yes, this is a follow-up. It was earlier in-licensing, now perpetual license for trademark and we can manufacture it in-house. When we shared about Galvus deal it was EPD followed by this perpetual license - kind of acquisition with slight delay. The other deals don't have this kind of provision.

Abdulkader Puranwala · ICICI Securities

On earlier guidance of US revenues touching $1 billion by FY'27, are we revising post-Lanreotide?

We will have to revise the guidance because if we don't have Lanreo in one quarter, the numbers will be lower. That guidance will have to go down. Directionally we had guided for the US business to continue trajectory supported by new launches. Three products are at advanced stage of launch which would add to the directional guidance.

Abdulkader Puranwala · ICICI Securities

Among the 8 products you mentioned 3 with rough timeline - are the remaining 5 early or late FY'27?

From 0 to 6 months, two big respiratory launches and one Advair (smaller). Between 6 to 12 months, another big respiratory launch likely Symbicort towards year-end. Plus a smaller peptide launch in 0-6 months and a larger peptide launch potentially exclusive in 6-12 months. The 0-6 month products have gone through multiple rounds of review and launches are more likely than not to happen soon.

Shashank Krishnakumar · Emkay Global

On the four respiratory assets, 3 filed from US, fourth is from Goa not Indore - so not contingent on Indore re-inspection?

That is correct.

Shashank Krishnakumar · Emkay Global

On opening remarks, US base ex-Revlimid grew double digits - that base includes Lanreotide?

That is right. Your understanding is correct.

Vivek Agarwal · Citi

What is the share of in-licensing portfolio in India Rx business and how has it grown?

At the moment it is less than 10%. Galvus was appearing as in-licensing, but now we will have own manufacturing benefit and full supply chain margins, so that comes out of the bucket and Yurpeak will grow. That is the evolution.

Tushar Manudhane · Motilal Oswal Financial Services

On Lanreotide, given prior regulatory issues at the same site, have you considered an alternate site filing?

From derisking perspective, we are looking at a second site, not in the same market. Those discussions are advanced with the partner because we need the partner to be able to transfer the product to the new site.

Tushar Manudhane · Motilal Oswal Financial Services

So if relaunching in 1st of FY'27, it has to be subject to USFDA clearance for this site itself?

Yes, the earlier resumption will come from the existing site. For future, the derisking can happen from the second site as well.

Tushar Manudhane · Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Will the new launches be at relatively similar profitability or lower than Revlimid?

It will be lower profitability than Revlimid and depends on timing. Collectively the new launches will make up for the generic side revenue drop. Important to note our respiratory assets are all in-house, so they will come at very good gross margin since you don't share profits or pay milestones to partners. Umang added that the two products average ballpark in top 2 or top 3 product profile for revenue ex-Revlimid.

Nitin Agarwal · DAM Capital

What is the normalized gross margin for the business on a more secular basis?

We have been averaging about 65% or so, range of 60-65% depending on the mix. Some quarters with more acute will be on lower side. Respiratory etc. typically would be higher. US depends on a small portfolio so there can be product skews.

Nitin Agarwal · DAM Capital

With Revlimid going away, is there an opportunity to prune operating overhead costs?

Absolutely. We constantly look at opportunities to reduce costs and optimize. We have run a program this year - some benefit may come towards end of this year, more full year benefits next year. The 7% R&D sits in material costs, other costs and people costs. R&D also has litigation costs for products in US baked in.

Chirag Dagli · DSP Asset Managers

On increase in R&D from R&D purchases, the absolute quantum seems like 150 odd crores - is that ballpark right?

That is the guidance we have given last quarter as well, where we said R&D expenses estimate has gone up by about 50 basis points. 50 bps would translate to around Rs. 150 crores. From that sense, yes, your number is very close.

Chirag Dagli · DSP Asset Managers

Does the 150 crores incremental R&D fit in RM cost?

RM as well as other expenses also, yes. Some bit of capital expense too if buying lab equipment, but small.

Chirag Dagli · DSP Asset Managers

On the two big respiratory products in next 6 months, could the size be as big as Lanreotide potential?

It is quite likely that one, if not both, could be one of the largest products for the company. If you take out Lenalidomide and take the next top 2 or 3 products including Lanreotide, this is ballpark in that top 2 or top 3 product type of profile for revenue.

Sidharth Negandhi · Chanakya Wealth Creation

Are you seeing greater traction in trade generics or branded generics, and how does Schedule M implementation play out?

We see opportunities on both sides with slightly different drivers - one is scientific doctor promotion, other is channel-led. Our growth rates have been similar this year. Schedule M is a good initiative to raise quality bar; impact is more for smaller players. From Cipla perspective we have not much impact because we are already at or better than the standards.

Shrikant Akolkar · Nuvama

Since we launched Tirzepatide, can we still launch Semaglutide in March?

At the moment we are focusing on Tirzepatide - a large opportunity with our Yurpeak partnership with Eli Lilly. As per IQVIA data, last month the molecule was clocking upwards of Rs. 130 crores a month. On Sema we will wait and watch how the market evolves. If we see opportunity at lower price point we can take that call, but not immediately.

Kunal Dhamesha · Macquarie

On the Rs. 275 crores exceptional item this quarter, do we see any prospective impact in future quarters?

In our assessment, based on the new code as per guidance and FAQ given till now, we have taken the impact. We do not anticipate any material adjustment to this amount. Approvals now because of new code will be higher than every year, but for the past whatever approvals have to be made is all sitting in the 275.

Kunal Dhamesha · Macquarie

Will there be a structural increase in employee cost going forward?

Your accrual every year now will need to be slightly higher unless you change the structure of salary.

Kunal Dhamesha · Macquarie

On R&D side, this year has been higher - do we expect it to cool off in FY'27?

The normal range we have been operating in is around 5% to 6% of R&D spend. It gets lumpy at times depending on certain programs where R&D and API costs might get lumpy. We will try to keep it more around that 6%. Quarter-on-quarter depending on timing of projects, some goes up and down during the year.

Sidharth Negandhi · Chanakya Wealth Creation

On Schedule M, are you envisaging trade generics or branded generics seeing short-term blip or benefit?

It is more toward benefiting the patient in terms of quality and preventing adverse events. Given the number of manufacturers in India, we don't see much material difference on our business on either of trade generics or branded generics because of this Schedule M implementation.

Prepared remarks (4 blocks)
Umang Vohra opened the call thanking participants for joining the Q3 FY'26 Earnings Call. He noted that over the last five years Cipla delivered strong performance, fenced its market position and significantly enhanced profitability, building a strong leadership bench. As he prepares to hand over responsibilities, he invited Achin Gupta to take charge and lead the next phase of growth. Achin Gupta thanked Umang for his steady leadership and turned to the quarter's performance: revenues over Rs. <strong>7,000 crore</strong>s despite the known drop in generic Revlimid sales; One-India business delivered 10% YoY growth; branded prescription business grew 10%. Key therapies outperformed: Respiratory grew 11%, anti-diabetes and cardiac 13% each, urology 15%. Cipla respiratory crossed Rs. 5,000 crores in IPM (IQVIA MAT December '25), outperforming therapy IPM growth by 400 bps. Overall chronic mix strengthened to 62.3% YOY. Foracort continued as the number one brand in IPM. Four new brands added to the INR 100+ crore club, taking total to 30; presence in IPM's top 300 brands remained strong with 22 brands. Cipla remained the largest pharma company by volume with 2 billion+ unit sales. Strategic deals included Pfizer agreement for marketing four established brands in India and definitive agreement to acquire Inzpera Health Sciences.
Diabetes portfolio strengthened with launch of Afrezza (India's first inhaled rapid-acting insulin) and Yurpeak (tirzepatide via Eli Lilly partnership). Trade generic business delivered healthy growth with 8 new launches; consumer health continued upward trajectory with Nicotex, Omnigel and Cipladine consolidating number one positions. In North America, quarterly revenue was <strong>$167 million</strong> with small Lenalidomide contribution; faced supply challenge in some key products and increased competition in new launches; ex-lena base business grew double-digit YoY. Cipla held #1 in U.S. Albuterol MDI with 22% share. Lanreotide partner Pharmathen received nine 483 observations after USFDA inspection; production temporarily paused; resupply expected H1 FY'27, with alternate site evaluation underway. Pipeline includes four respiratory launches including generic Advair, generic Victoza launching this quarter, and three more peptide assets in FY'27. Three of four respiratory assets are filed from U.S. facilities. South Africa private market grew 6.3% (vs 5.7% market). EMEU delivered fourth successive quarter above $100 million with 7% YoY growth in USD. Indore facility re-inspection expected anytime soon.
- Quarterly revenue: Rs. <strong>7,074 crore</strong>s, flat YoY - EBITDA margin (excluding other income): 17.7% for the quarter - EBITDA margin decline primarily driven by lower generic Revlimid revenues - Reported gross margin (after material cost): 62.8%, driven by Lenalidomide decline and product mix; R&D material cost of APIs/R&Ds also sits in material cost - Total expenses: Rs. 3,187 crores, 13% increase YoY due to planned investment in R&D, manufacturing, and talent - R&D investments: Rs. 494 crores (~7% of revenue), up 37.4% YoY, directed largely towards product filing and key development programs - Profit after tax: Rs. 676 crores, 9.6% of sales; includes one-time impact of Rs. 276 crores from new labor code (in exceptional items, not above EBITDA) - ETR for the quarter: 24.5% - Debt (including lease liabilities) as of 31st December 2025: Rs.
<strong>489 crore</strong>s - Net cash equivalent balance: Rs. 10,229 crores (after dividend paid in previous quarter and Galvus payment this quarter) - EBITDA was lower than internal expectation by ~1.5% to 2%, primarily due to lower-than-anticipated Lanreotide performance and completion of generic Revlimid billing cycle - FY'26 EBITDA margin guidance: ~21% (down from prior expectations) - FY'27 guidance to be provided after annual operating plan finalization
Watch next