Throughline · holding view Deep analysis Q4 FY25
CIPLA Cipla · Pharma Q4 FY25 · concall
Pattern: lanreotide supply normalcy timing

Refused to commit on fy26 top line guidance.

5 deflections · 7 weak · 31 clean pushback across 12 of 43 Q&A turns

Focused evidence 12 of 43

Damayanti Kerai · HSBCweak

On Lanreotide, you mentioned you have started supplies to few markets. How should we look at the normalcy coming back in the supplies for the U.S. market?

My script comment was about nano paclitaxel - we've already supplied to a couple of markets and we are ready to supply to the U.S. On Lanreotide, Q4 was significantly higher than Q3 in volume and this quarter we are coming back to normalcy. The product is quite significantly back into the channel.

Damayanti Kerai · HSBCweak

So in first half itself, should we assume it will go back to the level where you left?

That level was built as a common strategy between the NDA product and the ANDA product. For some time, the ANDA product took over, and now we're coming back into both NDA and ANDA. Eventually we will reach that level.

Devang Shah · Asit C Mehta Investmentdeflection

Can we expect top line for FY26 to be in the range of 7% to 9%?

We don't give revenue guidance. Every year we give EBITDA margin guidance because our focus is on profitability to ensure we maintain that. That's why we continue to give the profit margin.

Bino Pathiparampil · Elara Capitalweak

On Teduglutide where you and partner filed for declaratory judgment - when do you expect to launch? Orphan drug exclusivity is to May 2026, so before or after?

I would rather not provide specifics since the product is competitive. If you follow the court summary judgment details being asked for, you might be able to figure it out. You're on the right track, and it might be a little bit longer than May 2026 - after that also.

Kunal Dhamesha · Macquariedeflection

On Advair, when did we file the amendment to the U.S. FDA?

We are not giving that level of guidance specifically because launch timelines can be calculated. But it's already into the FDA, and it's been filed.

Kunal Dhamesha · Macquarieweak

On the 3 peptide assets expected to launch in FY26, how should we think about the size of these products?

We're not giving guidance of size, but one of them is likely to be a large asset for us. The other 2 would be smaller assets.

Anubhav Agarwal · UBSdeflection

On Nilotinib - is it a $10 million, $20 million or $20-50 million scale opportunity annually?

We are not giving product level guidance specifically on this. There are multiple factors that can play out related to how soon an ANDA enters versus how soon a B2 product can exist.

Anubhav Agarwal · UBSweak

When will you launch Nilotinib? And on US sales, when do you expect to reach $934 million level again - FY27/28/29?

Nilotinib launch is imminent. On U.S. sales the hope is to reach the same level, but depending on market challenges there's not enough definitive analytic to suggest where we'll reach because lena trajectory is significant. We've given a range for next quarter at $220 million.

Sanjay Kohli · Gold Stone Capitaldeflection

Would it mean the system is recognizing certain inefficiency in innovator pricing that is also likely to happen for lowering cost?

I don't know. It's been 1 day since the orders come and they're digesting it. Maybe we'll be in a better position to speak about it over the next month. It's too recent and we really don't know much about it.

Nitin Agarwal · DAM Capitaldeflection

On U.S. with $220 million Q1 guidance, do you see a lot of lena impact in that number with bigger launches coming through the year?

Umang has covered that question. We are not giving guidance right now beyond Q1 for U.S.

Tushar Manudhane · Motilal Oswalweak

On peptide assets, can you elaborate on investment done till date as far as R&D or manufacturing? What investment are we targeting over next 2-3 years?

A lot of our peptide portfolio we go outside to CMOs - we don't have injectables facility. So most investment is on the development side. There are 3-4 broad categories of R&D expenditure: peptides, respiratory, bio, and other complex/long-acting injectables - it's part of R&D expenditure that we incur.

Vishal Manchanda · Systematixweak

Can it be a low single-digit market share product in terms of volumes? And on GLP-1, have we initiated clinical trials for India market?

Overall insulin market - probably that's where it will end up, not going to be a huge market share product. Insulin category is huge with people who have injectable phobia who might benefit from inhaled insulin. On GLP-1 we will be on the day of market creation - we are not giving specific detail on the product per se right now.

Other Q&A (31)
Kunal Dhamesha · Macquarie

On the nano paclitaxel launch in U.S., how are we looking at this market given other 505(b)(2) players, how are we positioned to gain market share, and any technicalities regarding channel of selling?

There is 1 NDA player and 2 generics; one of the generics will continue to expand for ANDA generics because they are substitutable. From a reimbursement perspective, everybody is reimbursed like a generic. We feel the market is large enough for us to take meaningful share.

Kunal Dhamesha · Macquarie

What would be your estimate of the total addressable market now?

The market was $800 million, $900 million pre generic. The IMS would still show it at that level, but there would be a gross to nets to bring the market down which on the institutional side is closer to the overall IMS reported number. Our belief is that we should play for fair market share on this product category.

Kunal Dhamesha · Macquarie

I missed any commentary on Advair, and overall on the respiratory pipeline.

Advair will be commercialized from our site in the U.S. We've taken our batches and gone through the regulatory process. Depending on how the U.S. prioritizes domestic site filings, we definitely see it as an FY '26 launch, either in the early part or later part of the year.

Kunal Dhamesha · Macquarie

So we have filed an amendment to ANDA, right, and not the CBE-30?

It can't be a CBE-30 because it's from a new site. So that filing has already gone where it is filing from a new site. There was a recent promulgation from the U.S. that filings from domestic facilities may be prioritized.

Kunal Dhamesha · Macquarie

On potential pharma tariff, any update on the U.S. market from your partners or distributors?

We have not got impacted by any in our portfolio - this is an evolving situation. The most recent announcement doesn't really impact the generic players. In fact, it may just benefit.

Damayanti Kerai · HSBC

Which product will prefer, NDA 505(b)(2) or NDA in terms of gaining market share quickly?

The ANDA always gains share faster because it's just like the brand product. But we are selling both right now.

Damayanti Kerai · HSBC

Comment on R&D outlook - in '26-'27 how should we look at R&D cost and which are focus segments in near term?

We're generally in the range, guiding to never higher than 6, 6.5% on a full year basis. Some quarters may be slightly higher, some lower. Focus areas continue to be respiratory, injectables, India products including GLP-1s going off patent.

Surya Narayan Patra · PhillipCapital India

On the margin guidance - is it lower because Revlimid number will be lower or because Revlimid has started seeing price correction in last 12 months?

Revenue will continue in growth trajectory. It's a mix that is likely to change. Generic Revlimid will go out of exclusivity towards the last quarter, which will have an impact on overall margin. That's why we are guiding towards the margin number we've given.

Surya Narayan Patra · PhillipCapital India

What is the capex thought process for FY26, and how prepared are we for peptide/GLP opportunity? Also overall respiratory revenue share?

Capex is increasing strategically - oriented to respiratory capacity in MDI, DPI and rescues, plus derisking outside India (China facility capitalized, US facilities for MDI/DPI). On GLP-1 we'll be ready for first wave - both in-house and third-party partnerships. Respiratory remains 30% of revenue globally; capex about 5% of revenue.

Neha Manpuria · Bank of America

On India market growth, what's your overall sense on market growth and what trade generic and branded generic growth for Cipla could be?

Overall market growth rate range of 10 to 12 has now moved to 8 to 10. Reasons: NI season of off-patent expiries is gone (lose 1-1.5%), and lower inflation reduces pricing adjustments by another 1-1.5%. Cipla will do better than that overall in India.

Neha Manpuria · Bank of America

In trade generics, have we regained all the lower volume so it's fully back to normal?

It is fully back to normal, and the whole distribution channel is now completely internalized to Cipla.

Neha Manpuria · Bank of America

On capital allocation given the cash you are sitting on, has there been any changes in priorities to deploy that cash inorganically?

India remains our growth market with good return on capital. We'll continue to look at small to large M&A opportunities including product portfolios. Second is adding to U.S. portfolio via partnerships for complex ANDAs/NDAs. EMEU we look at midsized opportunistic acquisitions. We've also maintained the dividend increased in last 2 years.

Shashank Krishnakumar · Emkay Global

On the partnered inhalation asset filed a few quarters back, are we on track to commercialize next year and which facility is it filed from?

The asset is on track for commercialization. It was originally filed from Goa and will be commercialized from Goa. We're also creating a new filing/supplementing the file to have the option of doing this from our U.S. facility.

Shashank Krishnakumar · Emkay Global

Did the trade generic business also grow in double digits this quarter like Consumer Health?

The trade generic business did not grow as much as the Consumer Health business. It did not grow double digit. Ashish added that the model change impacted Q1 FY25, so Q4 was a normalized quarter of FY24 - YoY growth in trade generic is a normal growth.

Sidharth Negandhi · Chanakya Wealth Creation

On the schedule extension given up to 31st December for MSMEs - can that be a tailwind for trade generics and branded generics growth?

We don't see that as a big driver for our growth. Not having the ability creates more uncertainty in the market. We don't see that as a big tailwind for us this year.

Sidharth Negandhi · Chanakya Wealth Creation

On recent U.S. regulations - does the most favored nation policy create any impact on the specialty part of the portfolio?

We don't have too much share of new drug spec. The focus of the legislation is on new drug NCs and new drug products, not on simple 505(b)(2)s which are reimbursed like ANDAs. We don't have those new drug products.

Devang Shah · Asit C Mehta Investment

On the U.S. pharma-related situation evolving, will it affect U.S. business or do you not have any challenges?

Two things in the U.S.: tariffs - currently no tariffs on generic products from India by and large, so we're not impacted. The recent executive order on pricing reductions - generics is a beneficiary as it creates a market where generic drugs are preferred. We're not seeing it impacting our business.

Bino Pathiparampil · Elara Capital

Are we still expecting to launch Symbicort in FY '27?

FY27, yes. We should hopefully be there.

Bino Pathiparampil · Elara Capital

With Lanreotide coming back, are we looking back to peak U.S. run rate of $250 million a quarter starting next quarter?

If lenalidomide stayed where it was, we would have got there and crossed it. But we will see compression in lena over next 2-3 quarters offset by new products. We are looking at something like $220 million for the U.S. going forward in the next quarter.

Kunal Dhamesha · Macquarie

On Lanreotide - by Q1, do we have enough product in the channel to reach previous market share?

We did not say enough product in the channel - we said we have resumed our supplies back. The channel does not have too much product of Cipla because we are getting back into the business. We are projecting enough supply to start building towards that range.

Kunal Dhamesha · Macquarie

So our revenue ramp up would be more or less in line with our market share ramp-up?

We are at a stage where we are beginning to produce roughly the same levels we used to produce when we had the prior market share. To go through that market share, because we have to keep stock spare and fill the channel, it will take a little bit of time.

Anubhav Agarwal · UBS

On semaglutide in India, will you pursue both target and injectable versions or only one?

We will be in whatever variant forms for the market. It will likely be the injectable first. As and when the market opens for the oral, we'll also be there in that.

Sanjay Kohli · Gold Stone Capital

On the executive order, when does it get implemented and how does it affect generics pricing?

Right now it doesn't affect pricing on generics. The executive order is more towards branded drugs. We believe that in the long run, generics will be a beneficiary - if branded prices reduce, branded companies have less interest in massive promotion, and newer drug categories may move over to those already generic.

Sanjay Kohli · Gold Stone Capital

Of your 29% North American sales, what percentage is supplied by your facilities over there?

About 25% comes from U.S. - mainly orals, adding MDI and DPI. About 1/3 comes from India currently. Balance is CMOs. Umang clarified: for the 29%, about 10% will be made in U.S., 10% in India and 10% in rest of the world.

Krishnendu Saha · Quantum Mutual Fund

On India 7% YoY growth, is it largely attributable to volume growth?

It's a mix of all 3 - volume, pricing and new introductions. I don't think it's all volume.

Krishnendu Saha · Quantum Mutual Fund

On China plant - what does it supply and to which region?

It's a respiratory plant supplying respiratory medication. Built with the intention of supplying the China market and other markets that require that product, including the U.S. if required.

Krishnendu Saha · Quantum Mutual Fund

Will this China plant include the future filings for the U.S.?

Not really. This is only for the current filings. The future filings are going out of our sites in the U.S. and India. The China market itself is also quite big for the products we manage.

Krishnendu Saha · Quantum Mutual Fund

On semaglutide, have we filed for Canada or Brazil market? And on Revlimid, do you get any volume increase this year?

On semaglutide - no, we have not filed in Canada or Brazil. On Revlimid, there has been volume increase very marginally for us compared to other players who have commented on larger volume share. For us it's very marginal as per the agreement signed.

Nitin Agarwal · DAM Capital

On Europe, emerging markets and South Africa - has something really changed in these businesses given strong recovery growth?

South Africa had three levers: Actor acquisition helping OTC growth, opportunistic tenders, and new launches with higher than competition share. On a normalized basis we should take 4-5% growth for South Africa. EMEU is multiple markets - we focused on execution achieving 15% USD growth and it has entered growth phase, target to grow next year as well.

Tushar Manudhane · Motilal Oswal

On the large asset for FY26 - what is the expected timeline for approval?

We have 2-3 peptide products expecting this year. We've recently been given approval of nano paclitaxel and a few others in pipeline. We're hoping these approvals can come in the second half. You will see the full impact of a lot of these products in our second half year numbers.

Vishal Manchanda · Systematix

On inhaled insulin approval, what's the opportunity size, how will you price versus injectable insulin? Globally the asset hasn't done well - how can it work in India?

Launch should follow in 3-4 months with a market plan. Inhaled insulin is never to replace existing insulin in India - by its very nature it's a niche asset for people who cannot or are hesitant to take injectable drugs. It's not a mass product - intended to serve a section of population with unmet need.

Prepared remarks (3 blocks)
Umang Vohra opened by noting FY25 was a year of high milestones across flagship businesses - One India, North America, One Africa and EMEU - with One India business surpassing INR<strong>11,000 crore</strong>s in revenues. North America saw 3 key new drug approvals; One Africa and EMEU maintained strong growth across all 4 quarters. One India grew 8% YoY in the quarter and 7% YoY for the full year, with chronic mix improving to 61.5%. Foracort became the first IPM brand to cross INR900 crores. Cipla added 4 brands above INR100 crores (total 26) and now has 23 brands in the top 300 ranks. Strategic partnerships included Orchid Pharma (cefepime-enmetazobactam), Takeda (vonoprazan in India) and Formosa (clobetasol suspension). Trade generics had 19 new introductions; Consumer Health delivered double-digit growth with Nicotex, Omnigel and Cipladine retaining #1 positions. North America delivered $221 million in the quarter with all-time-high annual revenue of $934 million; albuterol share steady at 18%; Lanreotide supply normalizing. Two significant approvals: nano paclitaxel ANDA and Nilotinib NDA. One Africa grew 15% YoY in the quarter and 12% YoY annually in USD; EMEU grew 16% YoY in the quarter and 15% YoY annually.
6 respiratory assets filed including Symbicort and Qvar; 4 more respiratory in next 12-18 months; Advair closer to commercialization from US site. In peptides/complex generics, 9 assets filed with launches FY26-28; 10 more peptide/complex generic filings in next 12-24 months; 2-3 peptide launches committed for FY26. All 5 US FDA inspections (Patalganga, Kurkumbh, Goa, Virgonagar, Medispray) classified as VAI. Ashish Adukia presented financial highlights: Q4 revenue INR<strong>6,730 crore</strong>s (+9% YoY), full year INR27,548 crores (+8% YoY). EBITDA margin 22.8% Q4 (+150 bps YoY), 25.9% full year (+139 bps YoY) - exceeding guidance. Gross margin 67.5% Q4 (+74 bps YoY), 67.6% full year (+157 bps YoY). Q4 PAT INR1,222 crores (18.2% of sales); FY PAT INR5,273 crores (19.1% of sales); ETR 22.4%. ROIC 30%+. Net cash equivalent INR10,369 crores after debt of INR438 crores. FY26 EBITDA margin guidance 23.5%-24.5%, with continued revenue growth despite generic Revlimid losing exclusivity.
- revenue_q4: INR <strong>6,730 crore</strong>s - revenue_q4_yoy: +9% - revenue_fy25: INR 27,548 crores - revenue_fy25_yoy: +8% - ebitda_margin_q4: 22.8% - ebitda_margin_q4_yoy_bps: +150 - ebitda_margin_fy25: 25.9% - ebitda_margin_fy25_yoy_bps: +139 - gross_margin_q4: 67.5% - gross_margin_q4_yoy_bps: +74 - gross_margin_fy25: 67.6% - gross_margin_fy25_yoy_bps: +157 - total_expenses_q4: INR 3,003 crores (+7.4% YoY) - total_expenses_fy25: INR 11,491 crores (+8.7% YoY) - rnd_q4: INR 426 crores (6.3% of revenue) - rnd_fy25: INR 1,524 crores (5.5% of revenue) - pat_q4: INR 1,222 crores (18.2% of sales) - etr_q4: 18.6% - pat_fy25: INR 5,273 crores (19.1% of sales) - etr_fy25: 22.4% - roic_fy25: 30%+ - debt: INR 438 crores (incl. lease liabilities) - net_cash: INR 10,369 crores - north_america_q4_revenue: $221 million - north_america_fy25_revenue: $934 million - one_india_growth_q4_yoy: 8% - one_india_growth_fy25_yoy: 7% - one_africa_growth_q4_yoy: 15% - one_africa_growth_fy25_yoy: 12% (USD) - emeu_growth_q4_yoy: 16% - emeu_growth_fy25_yoy: 15% - fy26_ebitda_guidance: 23.5%-24.5% - fy26_capex_guidance: ~5% of revenue
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